Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings — Final Score & Result, NFL Week 4 2026

Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium (indoors)

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How this game played out, every angle on one screen.

Dolphins10market had 14.3
Final
Vikings15market had 24.3
SpreadMIN -10
Total38.5
Moneyline+420 / -560
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Game preview

The market makes Minnesota Vikings a 10-point favorite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 38.5.

Moneylines sit at +420 for Miami Dolphins and -560 for Minnesota Vikings, a devigged 82% win probability for Minnesota Vikings; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 14.3 for Miami Dolphins and 24.3 for Minnesota Vikings.

The spread has moved from MIN -10.5 to MIN -10 since it opened and the total has moved from 39 to 38.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine had projected Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 214 passing yards and 33 rushing yards, Malik Washington (WR) at 5 rushing yards and 57 receiving yards; Minnesota Vikings — Kyler Murray (QB) at 185 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Aaron Jones (RB) at 83 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 4:05 PM ET, at U.S. Bank Stadium, indoors.

Final: Minnesota Vikings won 15-10; Miami Dolphins covered the spread (MIN -10) and the game went under the 38.5 total.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Final

MIA 10 — MIN 15

Miami Dolphins covered the spread (MIN -10) and the game went under the 38.5 total.

Consensus market (closing lines)

Consensus market for Dolphins at Vikings — lines as of Sun, 10/4 · 4:05 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadMIN -10 (open MIN -10.5)
Total38.5 (open 39)
Moneyline (MIA / MIN)+420 / -560
MIN implied win probability82%
Implied team totals (MIA — MIN)14.3 — 24.3

Devigged cross-book consensus. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Dolphins and Vikings this season

Games before Week 4. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Miami Dolphins0-30-31-212.028.77
Minnesota Vikings3-03-01-223.713.77

Dolphins' last 3 games: L 10-24 vs KC · L 13-35 @ SF · L 13-27 @ LV.

Vikings' last 3 games: W 23-16 @ TB · W 9-3 @ CHI · W 39-22 vs GB.

Pre-game injury report

Miami Dolphins

Inactive: Brady Cook (QB), Caleb Douglas (WR), Justin Joly (TE), Chukwuebuka Godrick (T), Marcellas Dial Jr. (CB), Robert Beal Jr. (DE).

Minnesota Vikings

Inactive: Justin Jefferson (WR), Brett Thorson (P), Charles Demmings (CB), Elijah Williams (DE), Jakobe Thomas (S).

Gameday inactives as of Sun, 10/4 · 3:07 PM ET.

Player projections

Miami Dolphins · 14.3 market-implied pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 214 pass yds · 33 rush yds
Malik Washington (WR) — 5 rush yds · 57 rec yds
Greg Dulcich (TE) — 41 rec yds · 3.5 rec
Minnesota Vikings · 24.3 market-implied pts
Kyler Murray (QB) — 185 pass yds · 20 rush yds
Aaron Jones (RB) — 83 rush yds · 19 rec yds
Jordan Addison (WR) — 1 rush yds · 59 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Dolphins @ Vikings, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Dolphins @ Vikings matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 4 games

← Week 3 · Week 5 → · Full 2026 schedule

Dolphins 2026 schedule

Vikings 2026 schedule