Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 3:05 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium (indoors)
The market makes Minnesota Vikings a 10.5-point favourite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 43.
Moneylines sit at +440 for Miami Dolphins and -625 for Minnesota Vikings, a devigged 82% win probability for Minnesota Vikings; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 16.3 for Miami Dolphins and 26.8 for Minnesota Vikings.
The total has moved from 43.5 to 43.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 215 passing yards and 27 rushing yards, De'Von Achane (RB) at 70 rushing yards and 27 receiving yards; Minnesota Vikings — Carson Wentz (QB) at 190 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, Aaron Jones (RB) at 83 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, October 4, 2026 · 3:05 PM CT, at U.S. Bank Stadium, indoors.
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| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | MIN -10.5 |
| Total | 43 (open 43.5) |
| Moneyline (MIA / MIN) | +440 / -625 |
| MIN implied win probability | 82% |
| Implied team totals (MIA — MIN) | 16.3 — 26.8 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.