Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 5 2026

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Caesars Superdome (indoors)

Game preview

The market makes Minnesota Vikings a 1.5-point favourite over New Orleans Saints, with the game total at 44.5.

Moneylines sit at -125 for Minnesota Vikings and +105 for New Orleans Saints, a devigged 47% win probability for New Orleans Saints; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23 for Minnesota Vikings and 21.5 for New Orleans Saints.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Minnesota Vikings — Carson Wentz (QB) at 190 passing yards and 12 rushing yards, Aaron Jones (RB) at 73 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards; New Orleans Saints — Tyler Shough (QB) at 257 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Chris Olave (WR) at 80 receiving yards and 6.4 catches.

Kickoff is Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Caesars Superdome, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Vikings at Saints — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadMIN -1.5
Total44.5
Moneyline (MIN / NO)-125 / +105
NO implied win probability47%
Implied team totals (MIN — NO)23.0 — 21.5

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Minnesota Vikings · 23.0 proj pts
Carson Wentz (QB) — 190 pass yds · 12 rush yds
Aaron Jones (RB) — 73 rush yds · 13 rec yds
Justin Jefferson (WR) — 60 rec yds · 4.5 rec
New Orleans Saints · 21.5 proj pts
Tyler Shough (QB) — 257 pass yds · 19 rush yds
Chris Olave (WR) — 80 rec yds · 6.4 rec
Travis Etienne (RB) — 39 rush yds · 23 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 5 games

← Week 4 · Week 6 → · Full 2026 schedule