New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 15 2026

Sunday, December 20, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium

Prediction: Buccaneers 25, Saints 21 (market-implied). The market gives the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 64% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Saints @ Buccaneers, on one screen.

Saints21.0win 36%
Market-implied score
Buccaneers24.5win 64%
SpreadTB -3.5
Total45.5
Moneyline+164 / -198
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Saints vs Buccaneers prediction

The market makes Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 3.5-point favorite over New Orleans Saints, with the game total at 45.5.

Moneylines sit at +164 for New Orleans Saints and -198 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a devigged 64% win probability for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21 for New Orleans Saints and 24.5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The total has moved from 45 to 45.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New Orleans Saints — Tyler Shough (QB) at 236 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Chris Olave (WR) at 70 receiving yards and 5.5 catches; Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 196 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 79 rushing yards and 17 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 20, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Raymond James Stadium.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Saints at Buccaneers — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadTB -3.5 (open TB -3.75)
Total45.5 (open 45)
Moneyline (NO / TB)+164 / -198
TB implied win probability64%
Implied team totals (NO — TB)21.0 — 24.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Saints and Buccaneers this season

Games before Week 15. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
New Orleans Saints3-53-55-323.127.07
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3-64-55-422.419.87

Saints' last 3 games: W 23-22 vs CLE · L 10-16 vs PIT · W 34-27 @ NYG.

Buccaneers' last 3 games: L 24-27 @ CHI · W 16-0 vs ATL · W 43-13 @ CAR.

Player projections

New Orleans Saints · 21.0 market-implied pts
Tyler Shough (QB) — 236 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Chris Olave (WR) — 70 rec yds · 5.5 rec
Alvin Kamara (RB) — 36 rush yds · 25 rec yds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 24.5 market-implied pts
Baker Mayfield (QB) — 196 pass yds · 17 rush yds
Bucky Irving (RB) — 79 rush yds · 17 rec yds
Emeka Egbuka (WR) — 2 rush yds · 57 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Saints @ Buccaneers, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Saints @ Buccaneers matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 15 games

← Week 14 · Week 16 → · Full 2026 schedule

Saints 2026 schedule

Buccaneers 2026 schedule