Sunday, December 20, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium
The market makes Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 3.5-point favourite over New Orleans Saints, with the game total at 45.5.
Moneylines sit at +164 for New Orleans Saints and -198 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a devigged 64% win probability for Tampa Bay Buccaneers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21 for New Orleans Saints and 24.5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New Orleans Saints — Tyler Shough (QB) at 265 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Chris Olave (WR) at 83 receiving yards and 6.6 catches; Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 224 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 55 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, December 20, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Raymond James Stadium.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | TB -3.5 |
| Total | 45.5 |
| Moneyline (NO / TB) | +164 / -198 |
| TB implied win probability | 64% |
| Implied team totals (NO — TB) | 21.0 — 24.5 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.