Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium (retractable roof)

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 22 (market-implied). The market gives the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 53% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Buccaneers @ Falcons, on one screen.

Buccaneers23.5win 53%
Market-implied score
Falcons22.0win 47%
SpreadTB -1.5
Total45.5
Moneyline-125 / +105
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Buccaneers vs Falcons prediction

The market makes Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 1.5-point favorite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 45.5.

Moneylines sit at -125 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and +105 for Atlanta Falcons, a devigged 47% win probability for Atlanta Falcons; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 22 for Atlanta Falcons.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 193 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 85 rushing yards and 16 receiving yards; Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 228 passing yards and 9 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 81 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, indoors.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Buccaneers at Falcons — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadTB -1.5 (open TB -1.25)
Total45.5 (open 45.25)
Moneyline (TB / ATL)-125 / +105
ATL implied win probability47%
Implied team totals (TB — ATL)23.5 — 22.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Buccaneers and Falcons this season

Games before Week 16. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3-64-55-422.419.87
Atlanta Falcons3-63-64-520.924.87

Buccaneers' last 3 games: L 24-27 @ CHI · W 16-0 vs ATL · W 43-13 @ CAR.

Falcons' last 3 games: L 17-34 vs CIN · L 0-16 @ TB · W 29-20 vs SF.

Player projections

Tampa Bay Buccaneers · 23.5 market-implied pts
Baker Mayfield (QB) — 193 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Bucky Irving (RB) — 85 rush yds · 16 rec yds
Emeka Egbuka (WR) — 2 rush yds · 55 rec yds
Atlanta Falcons · 22.0 market-implied pts
Michael Penix Jr. (QB) — 228 pass yds · 9 rush yds
Bijan Robinson (RB) — 81 rush yds · 30 rec yds
Drake London (WR) — 1 rush yds · 70 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Buccaneers @ Falcons, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Buccaneers @ Falcons matchup →

Retractable-roof stadium: the outdoor forecast applies only if the roof is open. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule

Buccaneers 2026 schedule

Falcons 2026 schedule