Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium (retractable roof)
The market makes Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 1.5-point favourite over Atlanta Falcons, with the game total at 45.5.
Moneylines sit at -125 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and +105 for Atlanta Falcons, a devigged 47% win probability for Atlanta Falcons; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 23.5 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 22 for Atlanta Falcons.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield (QB) at 230 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Bucky Irving (RB) at 54 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards; Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 222 passing yards and 8 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 81 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, indoors.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | TB -1.5 |
| Total | 45.5 |
| Moneyline (TB / ATL) | -125 / +105 |
| ATL implied win probability | 47% |
| Implied team totals (TB — ATL) | 23.5 — 22.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.