Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium (retractable roof)
The market makes Atlanta Falcons a 1.5-point favourite over New Orleans Saints, with the game total at 44.5.
Moneylines sit at +102 for New Orleans Saints and -122 for Atlanta Falcons, a devigged 53% win probability for Atlanta Falcons; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.5 for New Orleans Saints and 23 for Atlanta Falcons.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New Orleans Saints — Tyler Shough (QB) at 265 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Chris Olave (WR) at 84 receiving yards and 6.7 catches; Atlanta Falcons — Michael Penix Jr. (QB) at 217 passing yards and 8 rushing yards, Bijan Robinson (RB) at 84 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, January 3, 2027 · 12:00 PM CT, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, indoors.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | ATL -1.5 |
| Total | 44.5 |
| Moneyline (NO / ATL) | +102 / -122 |
| ATL implied win probability | 53% |
| Implied team totals (NO — ATL) | 21.5 — 23.0 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.