Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 17 2026

Monday, January 4, 2027 · 8:15 PM ET · Lambeau Field

Prediction: Packers 23, Texans 20 (market-implied). The market gives the Green Bay Packers a 55% chance to win. · Updated

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Texans20.0win 45%
Market-implied score
Packers22.5win 55%
SpreadGB -2.5
Total42.5
Moneyline+114 / -135
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Texans vs Packers prediction

The market makes Green Bay Packers a 2.5-point favorite over Houston Texans, with the game total at 42.5.

Moneylines sit at +114 for Houston Texans and -135 for Green Bay Packers, a devigged 55% win probability for Green Bay Packers; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 20 for Houston Texans and 22.5 for Green Bay Packers.

The total has moved from 42 to 42.5.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud (QB) at 240 passing yards and 13 rushing yards, Woody Marks (RB) at 47 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards; Green Bay Packers — Jordan Love (QB) at 255 passing yards and 7 rushing yards, Christian Watson (WR) at 71 receiving yards and 4.9 catches.

Kickoff is Monday, January 4, 2027 · 8:15 PM ET, at Lambeau Field.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Texans at Packers — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadGB -2.5 (open GB -2.75)
Total42.5 (open 42)
Moneyline (HOU / GB)+114 / -135
GB implied win probability55%
Implied team totals (HOU — GB)20.0 — 22.5

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Texans and Packers this season

Games before Week 17. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Houston Texans3-53-55-326.124.011
Green Bay Packers6-36-2-13-624.021.210

Texans' last 3 games: W 44-22 @ LAC · L 21-27 vs NYG · W 34-31 @ JAX.

Packers' last 3 games: W 45-27 @ NE · W 27-19 vs CAR · L 17-20 @ DET.

Player projections

Houston Texans · 20.0 market-implied pts
C.J. Stroud (QB) — 240 pass yds · 13 rush yds
Woody Marks (RB) — 47 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Nico Collins (WR) — 1 rush yds · 54 rec yds
Green Bay Packers · 22.5 market-implied pts
Jordan Love (QB) — 255 pass yds · 7 rush yds
Christian Watson (WR) — 71 rec yds · 4.9 rec
Matthew Golden (WR) — 1 rush yds · 70 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Texans @ Packers, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 17 games

← Week 16 · Week 18 → · Full 2026 schedule

Texans 2026 schedule

Packers 2026 schedule