New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 11 2026

Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field

Prediction: Bears 29, Saints 20 (market-implied). The market gives the Chicago Bears an 80% chance to win. · Updated

The full matchup dashboard

Every angle of Saints @ Bears, on one screen.

Saints19.8win 20%
Market-implied score
Bears29.3win 80%
SpreadCHI -9.5
Total49
Moneyline+380 / -500
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
Open the full matchup →All Access

Saints vs Bears prediction

The market makes Chicago Bears a 9.5-point favorite over New Orleans Saints, with the game total at 49.

Moneylines sit at +380 for New Orleans Saints and -500 for Chicago Bears, a devigged 80% win probability for Chicago Bears; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 19.8 for New Orleans Saints and 29.3 for Chicago Bears.

The spread has moved from CHI -9 to CHI -9.5 since it opened.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects New Orleans Saints — Tyler Shough (QB) at 232 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, Chris Olave (WR) at 71 receiving yards and 5.5 catches; Chicago Bears — Caleb Williams (QB) at 238 passing yards and 24 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift (RB) at 55 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, November 22, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Soldier Field, Chicago Bears take the extra rest, 14 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Saints at Bears — lines as of Tue, 11/10 · 9:02 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadCHI -9.5 (open CHI -9)
Total49
Moneyline (NO / CHI)+380 / -500
CHI implied win probability80%
Implied team totals (NO — CHI)19.8 — 29.3

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Saints and Bears this season

Games before Week 11. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
New Orleans Saints3-53-55-323.127.07
Chicago Bears7-26-35-426.820.414

Saints' last 3 games: W 23-22 vs CLE · L 10-16 vs PIT · W 34-27 @ NYG.

Bears' last 3 games: W 27-24 vs TB · W 34-17 @ SEA · W 30-24 vs NE.

Player projections

New Orleans Saints · 19.8 market-implied pts
Tyler Shough (QB) — 232 pass yds · 16 rush yds
Chris Olave (WR) — 71 rec yds · 5.5 rec
Alvin Kamara (RB) — 38 rush yds · 24 rec yds
Chicago Bears · 29.3 market-implied pts
Caleb Williams (QB) — 238 pass yds · 24 rush yds
D'Andre Swift (RB) — 55 rush yds · 19 rec yds
Luther Burden III (WR) — 2 rush yds · 61 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Saints @ Bears, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the Saints @ Bears matchup →

Kickoff forecast: 37°F, wind 13 mph from the NNW, 32% chance of precipitation. Every game's conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 11 games

← Week 10 · Week 12 → · Full 2026 schedule

Saints 2026 schedule

Bears 2026 schedule