San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Prediction: Chiefs 25, 49ers 22 (market-implied). The market gives the Kansas City Chiefs a 59% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of 49ers @ Chiefs, on one screen.

49ers22.0win 41%
Market-implied score
Chiefs25.0win 59%
SpreadKC -3
Total47
Moneyline+133 / -162
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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49ers vs Chiefs prediction

The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 3-point favorite over San Francisco 49ers, with the game total at 47.

Moneylines sit at +133 for San Francisco 49ers and -162 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 59% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 22 for San Francisco 49ers and 25 for Kansas City Chiefs.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects San Francisco 49ers — Brock Purdy (QB) at 240 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey (RB) at 52 rushing yards and 34 receiving yards; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 227 passing yards and 19 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 72 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 4:25 PM ET, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, San Francisco 49ers take the extra rest, 10 days to 6.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for 49ers at Chiefs — lines as of Thu, 9/10 · 8:01 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadKC -3
Total47
Moneyline (SF / KC)+133 / -162
KC implied win probability59%
Implied team totals (SF — KC)22.0 — 25.0

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

49ers and Chiefs this season

Games before Week 16. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
San Francisco 49ers7-15-34-429.419.510
Kansas City Chiefs6-24-43-525.317.96

49ers' last 3 games: W 38-17 vs LV · L 20-29 @ ATL · W 23-17 vs WAS.

Chiefs' last 3 games: W 35-12 vs NYJ · L 24-28 @ DEN · L 3-20 @ SEA.

Player projections

San Francisco 49ers · 22.0 market-implied pts
Brock Purdy (QB) — 240 pass yds · 20 rush yds
Christian McCaffrey (RB) — 52 rush yds · 34 rec yds
George Kittle (TE) — 54 rec yds · 4.7 rec
Kansas City Chiefs · 25.0 market-implied pts
Patrick Mahomes (QB) — 227 pass yds · 19 rush yds
Kenneth Walker III (RB) — 72 rush yds · 22 rec yds
Rashee Rice (WR) — 54 rec yds · 4.7 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides 49ers @ Chiefs, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

Open the 49ers @ Chiefs matchup →

Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule

49ers 2026 schedule

Chiefs 2026 schedule