Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
The market makes Kansas City Chiefs a 3-point favourite over San Francisco 49ers, with the game total at 46.5.
Moneylines sit at +130 for San Francisco 49ers and -155 for Kansas City Chiefs, a devigged 58% win probability for Kansas City Chiefs; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 21.8 for San Francisco 49ers and 24.8 for Kansas City Chiefs.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects San Francisco 49ers — Brock Purdy (QB) at 221 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Christian McCaffrey (RB) at 46 rushing yards and 35 receiving yards; Kansas City Chiefs — Patrick Mahomes (QB) at 224 passing yards and 21 rushing yards, Kenneth Walker III (RB) at 78 rushing yards and 31 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 3:25 PM CT, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, San Francisco 49ers take the extra rest, 10 days to 6.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | KC -3 |
| Total | 46.5 |
| Moneyline (SF / KC) | +130 / -155 |
| KC implied win probability | 58% |
| Implied team totals (SF — KC) | 21.8 — 24.8 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.