Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium

Game preview

The market makes Los Angeles Chargers a 7-point favourite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 45.5.

Moneylines sit at -375 for Los Angeles Chargers and +295 for Miami Dolphins, a devigged 24% win probability for Miami Dolphins; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 26.3 for Los Angeles Chargers and 19.3 for Miami Dolphins.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Los Angeles Chargers — Justin Herbert (QB) at 212 passing yards and 20 rushing yards, Omarion Hampton (RB) at 73 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards; Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 216 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, De'Von Achane (RB) at 79 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 12:00 PM CT, at Hard Rock Stadium, Los Angeles Chargers take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market (intraday)

Consensus market for Chargers at Dolphins — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 12:16 PM CT
MarketConsensus
SpreadLAC -7
Total45.5
Moneyline (LAC / MIA)-375 / +295
MIA implied win probability24%
Implied team totals (LAC — MIA)26.3 — 19.3

Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Player projections

Los Angeles Chargers · 25.8 proj pts
Justin Herbert (QB) — 212 pass yds · 20 rush yds
Omarion Hampton (RB) — 73 rush yds · 13 rec yds
Ladd McConkey (WR) — 51 rec yds · 3.8 rec
Miami Dolphins · 18.8 proj pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 216 pass yds · 28 rush yds
De'Von Achane (RB) — 79 rush yds · 29 rec yds
Malik Washington (WR) — 3 rush yds · 41 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

Go deeper

The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

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