Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium

Prediction: Chargers 26, Dolphins 19 (market-implied). The market gives the Los Angeles Chargers a 75% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Chargers @ Dolphins, on one screen.

Chargers25.8win 75%
Market-implied score
Dolphins18.8win 25%
SpreadLAC -7
Total44.5
Moneyline-365 / +288
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Chargers vs Dolphins prediction

The market makes Los Angeles Chargers a 7-point favorite over Miami Dolphins, with the game total at 44.5.

Moneylines sit at -365 for Los Angeles Chargers and +288 for Miami Dolphins, a devigged 25% win probability for Miami Dolphins; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 25.8 for Los Angeles Chargers and 18.8 for Miami Dolphins.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Los Angeles Chargers — Justin Herbert (QB) at 229 passing yards and 23 rushing yards, Omarion Hampton (RB) at 57 rushing yards and 14 receiving yards; Miami Dolphins — Malik Willis (QB) at 193 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Ollie Gordon II (RB) at 64 rushing yards and 8 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Sunday, December 27, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET, at Hard Rock Stadium, Los Angeles Chargers take the extra rest, 10 days to 7.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Chargers at Dolphins — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadLAC -7
Total44.5
Moneyline (LAC / MIA)-365 / +288
MIA implied win probability25%
Implied team totals (LAC — MIA)25.8 — 18.8

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Chargers and Dolphins this season

Games before Week 16. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Los Angeles Chargers0-80-7-12-615.127.410
Miami Dolphins1-73-4-14-415.825.07

Chargers' last 3 games: L 22-44 vs HOU · L 9-24 @ LA · L 6-22 @ KC.

Dolphins' last 3 games: L 9-19 vs DET · L 19-24 vs NE · W 28-25 @ NYJ.

Player projections

Los Angeles Chargers · 25.8 market-implied pts
Justin Herbert (QB) — 229 pass yds · 23 rush yds
Omarion Hampton (RB) — 57 rush yds · 14 rec yds
Ladd McConkey (WR) — 44 rec yds · 3.5 rec
Miami Dolphins · 18.8 market-implied pts
Malik Willis (QB) — 193 pass yds · 28 rush yds
Ollie Gordon II (RB) — 64 rush yds · 8 rec yds
Caleb Douglas (WR) — 47 rec yds · 3.5 rec

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Chargers @ Dolphins, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule

Chargers 2026 schedule

Dolphins 2026 schedule