Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos — Prediction & Odds, NFL Week 16 2026

Friday, December 25, 2026 · 4:30 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High

Prediction: Bills 24, Broncos 22 (market-implied). The market gives the Buffalo Bills a 54% chance to win. · Updated

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Every angle of Bills @ Broncos, on one screen.

Bills24.3win 54%
Market-implied score
Broncos22.3win 46%
SpreadBUF -2
Total46.5
Moneyline-130 / +110
  • The market-implied score next to the spread and total
  • Player projections against their prop lines, with the best price
  • What decides it: each passing matchup, protection and pace
  • Who is out and how much they play, and the best price on every side
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Bills vs Broncos prediction

The market makes Buffalo Bills a 2-point favorite over Denver Broncos, with the game total at 46.5.

Moneylines sit at -130 for Buffalo Bills and +110 for Denver Broncos, a devigged 46% win probability for Denver Broncos; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24.3 for Buffalo Bills and 22.3 for Denver Broncos.

The spread has moved from BUF -1.5 to BUF -2 since it opened.

The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 233 passing yards and 32 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 87 rushing yards and 16 receiving yards; Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 202 passing yards and 17 rushing yards, Jonah Coleman (RB) at 45 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards.

Kickoff is Friday, December 25, 2026 · 4:30 PM ET, at Empower Field at Mile High.

New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.

Consensus market

Consensus market for Bills at Broncos — lines as of Sun, 9/13 · 1:16 PM ET
MarketConsensus
SpreadBUF -2 (open BUF -1.5)
Total46.5
Moneyline (BUF / DEN)-130 / +110
DEN implied win probability46%
Implied team totals (BUF — DEN)24.3 — 22.3

Devigged cross-book consensus from the latest snapshot we hold, dated above. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.

Bills and Broncos this season

Games before Week 16. Against the spread and over/under are graded against the consensus line.
TeamRecordAgainst the spreadOver/underPoints forPoints againstDays of rest
Buffalo Bills7-16-25-332.023.46
Denver Broncos7-27-24-522.020.75

Bills' last 3 games: W 23-6 @ MIN · W 36-10 vs BAL · W 33-30 @ LV.

Broncos' last 3 games: W 26-21 @ CAR · W 28-24 vs KC · W 30-16 @ ARI.

Player projections

Buffalo Bills · 24.3 market-implied pts
Josh Allen (QB) — 233 pass yds · 32 rush yds
James Cook (RB) — 87 rush yds · 16 rec yds
DJ Moore (WR) — 3 rush yds · 46 rec yds
Denver Broncos · 22.3 market-implied pts
Bo Nix (QB) — 202 pass yds · 17 rush yds
Jonah Coleman (RB) — 45 rush yds · 19 rec yds
J.K. Dobbins (RB) — 39 rush yds · 8 rec yds

Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.

What decides Bills @ Broncos, who is out and how much they play, the best price on every side, and every book's number.

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Kickoff weather and conditions are on the NFL slate.

More Week 16 games

← Week 15 · Week 17 → · Full 2026 schedule

Bills 2026 schedule

Broncos 2026 schedule