Friday, December 25, 2026 · 3:30 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High
The market makes Buffalo Bills a 2-point favourite over Denver Broncos, with the game total at 46.5.
Moneylines sit at -130 for Buffalo Bills and +110 for Denver Broncos, a devigged 46% win probability for Denver Broncos; splitting the spread and total leaves market-implied team totals of 24.3 for Buffalo Bills and 22.3 for Denver Broncos.
The spread has moved from 1.5 to 2 since it opened.
The Sport Stack's nflsim engine projects Buffalo Bills — Josh Allen (QB) at 222 passing yards and 32 rushing yards, James Cook (RB) at 75 rushing yards and 18 receiving yards; Denver Broncos — Bo Nix (QB) at 199 passing yards and 16 rushing yards, J.K. Dobbins (RB) at 51 rushing yards and 7 receiving yards.
Kickoff is Friday, December 25, 2026 · 3:30 PM CT, at Empower Field at Mile High.
New to these numbers? How devigging turns a price into a probability, how sportsbooks set these lines, what expected value means, and why to shop the number.
| Market | Consensus |
|---|---|
| Spread | BUF -2 (open +1.5) |
| Total | 46.5 |
| Moneyline (BUF / DEN) | -130 / +110 |
| DEN implied win probability | 46% |
| Implied team totals (BUF — DEN) | 24.3 — 22.3 |
Devigged cross-book consensus, updated as lines move. See the power ratings for the model's implied line on any matchup.
Research context, not a pick — every staked play is graded on the public ledger. How we grade.
The interactive matchup dashboard adds usage cores, opponent-defense-vs-position strips, offense identity, and the multi-book open→close board for this game. Forecast conditions are on the NFL slate.