Florida A&M Rattlers vs South Alabama Jaguars basketball preview & prediction
Tue, Nov 24 · 8:00 PM ET · Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL
Non-conferenceESPN+Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL
Florida A&M
0-3 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #344
@
South Alabama
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #216
Tue, Nov 24 · 8:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 69.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Florida A&M is the faster team (76.0, #54 of 365) and South Alabama the slower (65.8, #317). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
69.8
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.4#73
Florida A&M
68.0#326
South Alabama
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
South Alabama has the ball+9.2
Florida A&M has the ball−3.9
South Alabama has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 12.8% #41 · FAMU forces 9.9% #349 · ~7 turnovers+7.2
✓Shoots it welleFG% 52.4% #151 · FAMU allows 54.8% #257+3.5
✗Few second chancesOR% 20.8% #331 · FAMU allows 41.5% #325−1.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 36.0% #190 · FAMU allows 37.7% #191 · FT 64.4% #264−0.4
Florida A&M has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 19.5% #336 · USA allows 27.5% #118−4.4
✓Shoots it welleFG% 48.3% #210 · USA allows 58.7% #310+3.1
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 32.2% #229 · USA allows 28.9% #88 · FT 50.0% #350−1.9
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.7% #239 · USA forces 18.2% #164 · ~13 turnovers−0.7
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootFlorida A&Moffense vsSouth Alabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
Florida A&M shoots
21.5
15.2
21.5
41.8
South Alabama allows
20.9
6.4
10.0
62.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.8%#170 | 69.6%#300 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 16.7%#299 | 28.6%#100 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 47.1%#75 | 27.3%#106 | 34.7% |
| Three | 32.7%#173 | 41.6%#313 | 32.5% |
South Alabamaoffense vsFlorida A&Mdefense
Share of shots by zone
South Alabama shoots
31.7
19.8
9.9
38.6
Florida A&M allows
42.0
9.0
13.0
36.0
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 78.1%#9 | 52.4%#103 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 22.2%#70 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.0%#117 | 38.5%#202 | 34.7% |
| Three | 22.4%#332 | 41.7%#314 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineFlorida A&M
−15.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#348 of 365
Off reb %
19.5%
#336
Def reb %
58.5%
#325
Turnover %
19.7%
#239
Forced TO %
9.9%
#349
FT rate
32.2%
#229
FT allowed
37.7%
#191
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−4.0
Defensive rebounding−3.3
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−5.8
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.1
South Alabama
+3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#121 of 365
Off reb %
20.8%
#331
Def reb %
72.5%
#118
Turnover %
12.8%
#41
Forced TO %
18.2%
#164
FT rate
36.0%
#190
FT allowed
28.9%
#88
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.6
Defensive rebounding+1.4
Ball security+3.8
Forcing turnovers+0.1
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+2.4
South Alabama has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.7 (#121 of 365) to Florida A&M’s −15.4 (#348).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notFlorida A&M2026-27 numbers · last game: UAB, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 34.3 | 36 | — | Started last | 24.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 60.4% | 37.5% | 5.3 | 53.8% | 34.0% | |
| 8 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 31.3 | 34 | — | Started last | 17.3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 55.4% | 40.9% | 7.3 | 68.8% | 28.8% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 34.5 | 0 | — | Missed last game | 9.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 47.1% | 0.0% | 1.5 | 60.0% | 24.2% | |
| 00 | G | Jr | 6'7" | 3-1 | 19.0 | 18 | — | Started last | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 41.7% | 50.0% | 1.3 | — | 16.9% | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 2-1 | 27.5 | 33 | — | Started last | 6.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 75.0% | 57.1% | 3.5 | 25.0% | 15.9% | |
| 2 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 17.3 | 23 | — | Bench | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 29.2% | 12.5% | 2.7 | — | 14.4% | |
| 45 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 3-2 | 16.0 | 14 | — | Bench | 2.3 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 30.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 100.0% | 14.0% | |
| 21 | C | Fr | 6'10" | 3-2 | 11.3 | 12 | — | Started last | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.4% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 15.7% | |
| 55 | F | Sr | 7'0" | 3-1 | 11.0 | 8 | — | Bench | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 17.5% | |
| 15 | F | Jr | 7'1" | 3-0 | 9.0 | 3 | — | Bench | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 43.8% | 20.0% | 1.7 | 33.3% | 27.4% | |
| 22 | C | Jr | 7'3" | 3-0 | 8.3 | 20 | — | Bench | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 17.0% | |
| 12 | G | So | 6'3" | 1-0 | 2.0 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesFlorida A&M
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −40.2
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +12.5
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | UAB | A | L 64–92 | +18.5 | L−9.5 | 154.5 | O156 | 87.1 | 125.3 | 73.4 |
| Nov 5 | Fort Valley State Wildcats | H | L 70–75 | — | — | — | — | 96.1 | 102.9 | 72.9 |
| Nov 2 | Florida St | N | L 69–112 | +28.0 | L−15.0 | 157.5 | O181 | 87.7 | 142.4 | 78.6 |
| Mar 13 | Southern | N | L 70–73 | +2.0 | L−1.0 | 140.5 | O143 | 97.7 | 101.9 | 71.6 |
| Mar 11 | Jackson St | N | W 70–60 | −6.5 | W+3.5 | 142.5 | U130 | 100.0 | 85.7 | 70.0 |
| Mar 5 | Bethune | H | W 81–77 | +2.5 | W+6.5 | 145.5 | O158 | 112.9 | 107.3 | 71.8 |
| Feb 28 | Grambling | A | W 66–59 | +5.0 | W+12.0 | 141.0 | U125 | 97.9 | 87.5 | 67.4 |
| Feb 26 | Southern | A | W 82–71 | +9.0 | W+20.0 | 146.5 | O153 | 116.6 | 100.9 | 70.3 |
| Feb 21 | Alabama St | H | W 76–63 | +1.5 | W+14.5 | 144.5 | U139 | 108.8 | 90.2 | 69.8 |
| Feb 19 | Alabama A&M | H | L 61–63 | −2.0 | L−4.0 | 139.5 | U124 | 96.8 | 100.0 | 63.0 |
South Alabama
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-2
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −5.0
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
2-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +15.8
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | UCF | A | L 69–76 | +14.0 | W+7.0 | 151.0 | U145 | 113.7 | 125.2 | 60.7 |
| Nov 5 | Jax State | H | W 83–80 2OT | −5.0 | L−2.0 | 139.5 | O163 | 107.7 | 103.8 | 77.1 |
| Nov 2 | Ohio | H | L 77–86 | +1.0 | L−8.0 | 155.0 | O163 | 108.6 | 121.3 | 70.9 |
| Mar 17 | Auburn | A | L 67–78 | +18.0 | W+7.0 | 153.0 | U145 | 104.4 | 121.6 | 64.2 |
| Mar 6 | GA Southern | N | L 85–94 | −4.5 | L−13.5 | 148.5 | O179 | 126.5 | 139.9 | 67.2 |
| Feb 27 | Southern Miss | H | L 55–68 | −4.0 | L−17.0 | 142.0 | U123 | 85.0 | 105.1 | 64.7 |
| Feb 25 | UL Monroe | H | W 89–54 | −14.5 | W+20.5 | 153.5 | U143 | 132.3 | 80.3 | 67.3 |
| Feb 21 | Troy | H | W 65–54 | +2.5 | W+13.5 | 143.0 | U119 | 111.0 | 92.2 | 58.5 |
| Feb 19 | Texas St | H | L 82–90 OT | −4.0 | L−12.0 | 137.5 | O172 | 112.6 | 123.5 | 72.8 |
| Feb 16 | Marshall | A | L 80–84 | +5.5 | W+1.5 | 151.0 | O164 | 123.6 | 129.8 | 64.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeFlorida A&MSouth Alabama
Efficiency
96.4
104.9
112.0
108.3
72.4
68.0
7.2
-1.0
Shooting
48.3%
52.4%
47.8%
64.5%
32.7%
22.4%
50.0%
64.4%
32.2%
36.0%
Ball control & glass
19.7%
12.8%
9.9%
18.2%
19.5%
20.8%
41.5%
27.5%
12.5%
8.8%
7.2%
10.5%
Style
41.5%
39.2%
37.6%
57.5%
10.5%
12.5%
40.8%
46.7%
36.6%
27.3%
Roster
2.88
2.70
6'6.5"
6'5.4"
12.9%
11.6%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputFlorida A&M
Returning minutes: 28.2%Returning production: 30.1%
Lost
- Tyler Shirley 30.5 mpg, 12.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jordan Chatman 26.5 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Micah Octave 23.1 mpg, 7.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kaleb Washington 18.5 mpg, 7.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Miles Ndalama 18.5 mpg, 6.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Anquan Boldin Jr. 12.8 mpg, 4.1 ppg · transferred to Stonehill
Added
- Jaden Kempson from UAlbany · 23.2 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
- Ralph Martino Jr. new to D1 · 13.5 mpg, 4.1 ppg last season
- Ashton Williams new to D1 · 10.7 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
- Daisean Williford from Oregon St · 1.9 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Assane Mbaye from Seton Hall · 0.1 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
- Jayden Joseph no D1 minutes last season
Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
South Alabama
Returning minutes: 11.6%Returning production: 17.7%
Lost
- Adam Olsen 33.8 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn
- Chaze Harris 31.8 mpg, 19.2 ppg · transferred to Charlotte
- Jayden Cooper 30.0 mpg, 11.3 ppg · transferred to ETSU
- Randy Brady 26.9 mpg, 5.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Hantz Louis-Jeune 23.5 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- John Broom 14.3 mpg, 2.1 ppg · transferred to Vermont
Added
- Roderick Williams Jr. new to D1 · 21.0 mpg, 9.0 ppg last season
- Davaughn Hueitt new to D1 · 13.0 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
- Desmond Williams no D1 minutes last season
- Jalen Langsy no D1 minutes last season
- Alexey Sereda no D1 minutes last season
- Keyne Costa no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 12% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.