CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceYuengling Center, Tampa, FL

Stetson

Efficiency #322

2025-26: 12-21 · 8-12 conf

South Florida

Efficiency #36

2025-26: 25-9 · 17-3 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · TBD

68.6

win 5%

Projected

87.3

win 95%

No line posted yet.

Model: USF −18.7 · total 155.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: South Florida 71.0, Stetson 67.9 → 70.6 possessions

+5.0

South Florida offense vs Stetson defense

+8.6

Stetson offense vs South Florida defense

−6.0

Projected total

155.8

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

South Florida offense vs Stetson defense

+8.6

Stetson offense vs South Florida defense

+6.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

South Florida by 18.7

18.7

Stetson side ◂▸ South Florida side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help South Florida.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, South Florida is the faster team (73.0, #12 of 365) and Stetson the slower (67.9, #208). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

155.8

model

Projected team totals

68.6 / 87.3

Stetson / South Florida

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.9#216

Stetson

71.0#15

South Florida

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSouth Florida

Where South Florida scores: the offensive glass

South Florida rebounds 38.1% of its own misses (#7); Stetson lets opponents grab 31.8% of their own misses (#250). Expect about 36.5%, 6.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.7 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageStetson

Where Stetson struggles: ball control

Stetson turns it over on 18.1% of possessions (#277); South Florida forces turnovers on 19.1% of opponent possessions (#42). Expect about 19.1%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.8 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

South Florida averages 73.0 possessions per 40, Stetson 67.9. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

DefenseSouth Florida

South Florida's ball-hawking

South Florida ranks #21 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.0% of Stetson's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

TurnoversSouth Florida

South Florida protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions for South Florida's offense.

Stetson has the ball

OffenseSouth Florida allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #96

48.8% #58

-0.2 pt/100

18.1% #277

19.1% #42

-2.8 pt/100

26.6% #308

31.9% #252

-1.2 pt/100

32.4% #250

39.1% #287

+0.1 pt/100

69.2% #292

—

-0.3 pt/100

Stetson net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.4 pts/100

South Florida has the ball

OffenseStetson allowsvs D1 avg

50.6% #209

55.2% #338

+2.3 pt/100

15.1% #74

15.1% #271

+2.4 pt/100

38.1% #7

31.8% #250

+3.7 pt/100

40.4% #55

30.4% #71

-0.0 pt/100

74.6% #101

—

+0.2 pt/100

South Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Stetsonoffense vsSouth Floridadefense

Share of shots by zone

Stetson shoots

35.0

5.5

15.5

44.0

South Florida allows

35.9

8.0

16.8

39.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.7%#126	54.7%#57	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.0%#171	34.5%#52	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	41.4%#74	34.8%#69	38.0%
Three	36.0%#59	34.5%#218	33.7%

South Floridaoffense vsStetsondefense

Share of shots by zone

South Florida shoots

46.7

5.1

4.1

44.1

Stetson allows

42.3

5.8

11.6

40.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.0%#299	63.8%#338	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.8%#227	35.7%#83	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	25.0%#365	42.3%#312	38.0%
Three	32.5%#255	34.6%#223	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Stetson

−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#304 of 365

Off reb %

26.6%

#308

Def reb %

68.2%

#250

Turnover %

18.1%

#277

Forced TO %

15.1%

#271

FT rate

32.4%

#250

FT allowed

30.4%

#71

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security−0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+1.2

South Florida

+5.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#18 of 365

Off reb %

38.1%

Def reb %

68.1%

#252

Turnover %

15.1%

#74

Forced TO %

19.1%

#42

FT rate

40.4%

#55

FT allowed

39.1%

#287

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.5

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers+1.7

Foul shots drawn+1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.0

South Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.3 (#18 of 365) to Stetson’s −3.0 (#304).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

South Florida2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Wes Enis	G	Jr	6'2"	32-29	34.0	16.4	3.6	2.4	1.6	51.1%	35.2%	9.5	81.4%	27.1%
5	Joseph Pinion	G	Sr	6'5"	34-34	30.2	14.6	3.9	2.4	1.5	52.2%	37.8%	8.6	78.7%	27.2%
8	Josh Omojafo	G	Sr	6'5"	34-32	27.2	11.3	5.3	1.7	1.2	50.2%	29.7%	2.2	78.2%	21.5%
11	CJ Brown	G	So	6'2"	34-34	26.6	10.9	3.9	4.7	2.0	40.7%	24.2%	1.9	72.7%	27.4%
3	Isaiah Jones	F	Sr	6'7"	34-1	15.8	4.5	3.0	0.4	0.3	53.0%	31.4%	2.5	82.9%	14.6%
6	Daimion Collins	F	Sr	6'9"	33-1	14.1	4.0	3.2	0.4	0.5	59.9%	15.8%	0.6	60.0%	15.0%
21	Adriel Nyorha	G	Fr	6'5"	26-2	11.0	3.7	1.7	2.0	1.2	44.8%	32.3%	1.2	67.9%	25.3%
9	Gavin Hightower	G	Fr	6'1"	26-0	10.2	4.1	1.7	1.7	1.2	53.5%	20.0%	0.2	67.4%	25.5%
4	Devin Haid	G	Sr	6'5"	23-0	10.0	3.3	2.0	0.8	0.3	47.7%	31.4%	1.5	93.3%	18.5%
7	Caleb Sanders	F	Fr	6'6"	10-2	8.2	3.1	1.6	0.8	0.4	52.8%	33.3%	0.9	66.7%	19.4%
0	Xavier Brown	G	Sr	6'2"	3-0	12.0	2.7	0.7	1.7	0.3	33.3%	33.3%	2.0	50.0%	16.3%
15	Onyx Nnani	F	Fr	6'9"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	De'Ante Green	F	Sr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Stetson2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Ethan Copeland	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	32.1	15.0	3.7	2.1	1.3	58.4%	42.9%	7.7	79.4%	25.2%
32	Jake Johnson	G	Sr	6'5"	32-20	28.4	9.2	3.1	1.4	1.0	50.2%	34.0%	5.0	78.2%	19.7%
3	Calvin Sirmans III	G	Jr	5'8"	32-27	23.5	6.1	1.8	4.6	1.8	41.3%	30.4%	2.2	76.5%	19.8%
9	Collin Kuhl	F	Jr	6'8"	32-29	23.5	13.1	6.3	0.7	1.5	66.2%	37.5%	0.3	61.8%	28.5%
21	Finley Sheridan	F	Jr	6'10"	29-20	21.6	7.0	4.1	1.3	1.5	63.6%	42.4%	2.0	63.0%	19.2%
13	Alex Doyle	F	Jr	6'9"	33-7	16.4	4.9	2.1	0.9	1.0	58.0%	40.2%	3.2	57.1%	18.8%
0	Jamie Phillips Jr.	G	So	6'5"	17-17	30.6	16.0	5.6	2.8	2.0	51.9%	34.7%	4.4	69.0%	30.7%
12	Matar Diop	F	Jr	6'10"	31-9	12.8	2.8	2.8	0.2	0.6	49.3%	20.0%	0.2	42.9%	16.3%
4	Daniel Macgregor	G	So	6'0"	20-3	18.7	4.8	1.9	3.8	2.0	40.9%	33.3%	1.1	82.1%	21.7%
51	Sean Morgan	G	Fr	6'2"	16-0	14.3	3.5	1.3	0.8	0.9	35.2%	18.4%	2.4	61.1%	21.6%
15	J.R. Leonard	G	Fr	6'4"	22-0	10.0	3.7	1.0	0.1	0.2	41.1%	24.3%	1.7	44.4%	26.5%
18	Janusz Ratowski	F	Fr	6'11"	25-0	7.6	2.2	1.7	0.3	0.6	64.5%	33.3%	0.1	63.6%	17.5%
2	Isaac Jones	G	So	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	66.7%	25.7%
8	Miller McGowan	G	Fr	6'1"	8-0	2.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.6	100.0%	26.9%
20	Ben Gladieux	G	Fr	6'7"	6-0	2.3	0.8	0.7	0.0	0.5	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	31.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Stetson

Against the spread

Season

18-13

Home

8-4

Road

8-8

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.7

Covered 5 straightCovered 6 of 9 as an underdogCovered 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-16-1

Home

5-7

Road

8-7-1

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +6.1

Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 9 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	N	L 60–69	+12.5	W+3.5	153.0	U129	95.4	109.7	62.9
Mar 4	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	N	W 92–76	+6.0	W+22.0	155.0	O168	140.3	115.9	65.6
Feb 28	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 78–63	+5.5	W+20.5	151.5	U141	115.3	93.2	67.6
Feb 26	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	A	L 85–89	+7.0	W+3.0	140.0	O174	126.3	132.3	67.3
Feb 21	North FloridaAdjEM #338	H	W 76–71	−1.5	W+3.5	160.5	U147	118.9	111.1	63.9
Feb 19	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	H	L 76–88	+10.0	L−2.0	149.0	O164	114.9	133.0	66.2
Feb 14	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 76–78	+10.5	W+8.5	148.5	O154	111.8	114.8	68.0
Feb 11	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	H	W 67–62	+1.5	W+6.5	138.5	U129	107.0	99.0	62.6
Feb 7	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	A	L 88–100	+10.0	L−2.0	151.5	O188	125.0	142.0	70.4
Feb 5	BellarmineAdjEM #281	A	L 71–92	+4.5	L−16.5	148.5	O163	115.5	149.6	61.5

South Florida

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

9-5

Road

7-5

Last 10

7-2-1

avg cover +5.6

Covered 7 of 9 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

15-18

Home

5-9

Road

7-5

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −9.3

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 9 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 19	#6LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	L 79–83	+4.0	P0.0	160.0	O162	105.0	110.3	75.2
Mar 15	Wichita StAdjEM #60	N	W 70–55	−6.0	W+9.0	150.5	U125	102.6	80.6	68.2
Mar 14	CharlotteAdjEM #193	N	W 86–64	−15.5	W+6.5	153.5	U150	125.1	93.1	68.7
Mar 8	CharlotteAdjEM #193	H	W 83–60	−17.5	W+5.5	155.5	U143	125.9	91.0	65.9
Mar 5	MemphisAdjEM #152	A	W 96–89	−7.5	L−0.5	161.5	O185	123.8	114.8	77.5
Mar 1	TulaneAdjEM #239	H	W 90–62	−15.0	W+13.0	154.5	U152	123.5	85.1	72.8
Feb 25	RiceAdjEM #255	A	W 75–56	−11.0	W+8.0	157.0	U131	107.8	80.5	69.6
Feb 19	MemphisAdjEM #152	H	W 87–66	−9.5	W+11.5	163.5	U153	124.2	94.2	70.1
Feb 15	FAUAdjEM #122	A	W 83–81 OT	−5.0	L−3.0	166.5	U164	108.3	105.7	76.6
Feb 11	Wichita StAdjEM #60	A	W 66–58	−2.0	W+6.0	160.0	U124	95.1	83.5	69.4

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

StetsonSouth Florida

Efficiency

105.1

114.7

114.4

103.3

67.9

71.0

—

Shooting

53.1%

50.6%

52.5%

52.0%

36.0%

32.5%

69.2%

74.6%

32.4%

40.4%

Ball control & glass

18.1%

15.1%

19.1%

26.6%

38.1%

31.8%

31.9%

11.5%

8.6%

7.7%

13.1%

Style

44.7%

43.8%

40.0%

43.5%

12.2%

16.5%

58.5%

58.4%

32.8%

29.9%

Roster

2.80

3.18

6'4.7"

6'4.3"

—

84.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Stetson

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Stetson's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

South Florida

Returning minutes: 84.4%Returning production: 76.6%

Lost

Izaiyah Nelson 27.3 mpg, 15.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tristan Beckford 4.4 mpg, 1.6 ppg · transferred to Bowling Green

Added

De'Ante Green no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.