CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceMcCann Arena, Poughkeepsie, NY

Bryant

Efficiency #347

2025-26: 9-22 · 5-12 conf

Marist

Efficiency #153

2025-26: 19-12 · 13-9 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · TBD

60.1

win 13%

Projected

73.0

win 87%

No line posted yet.

Model: MRST −12.9 · total 133.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Marist 67.6, Bryant 66.3 → 65.5 possessions

−6.1

Marist offense vs Bryant defense

0.0

Bryant offense vs Marist defense

−9.1

Projected total

133.1

Axis starts at 120 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Marist offense vs Bryant defense

0.0

Bryant offense vs Marist defense

+9.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.8

Marist by 12.9

12.9

Bryant side ◂▸ Marist side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 133.0 against a projected 133.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marist.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marist is the faster team (66.5, #271 of 365) and Bryant the slower (64.4, #347). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

133.1

model

Projected team totals

60.1 / 73.0

Bryant / Marist

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.3#330

Bryant

67.6#246

Marist

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBryant

Where Bryant struggles: shooting

Bryant shoots an effective 46.9% (#340); Marist allows 45.6% (#5). Expect about 45.8%, 5.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -7.8 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversBryant

Bryant turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 20.5% is worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions against Bryant's offense.

Pace

Half-court grind

Marist averages 66.5 possessions per 40, Bryant 64.4. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 64 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Bryant, Marist's defense, Bryant's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bryant at about 44.5% of its shots from three, Marist about 33.2%.

ClashMarist

Style match: 3-point volume

Marist rarely shoots threes (34.6% of its shots); Bryant runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 33.2% — both habits push the same way.

GlassBryant

Bryant gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.5% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Bryant's offense.

Bryant has the ball

OffenseMarist allowsvs D1 avg

46.9% #340

45.6% #5

-7.8 pt/100

20.2% #351

19.5% #34

-4.5 pt/100

27.7% #276

28.3% #77

-1.8 pt/100

29.4% #322

37.6% #252

-0.2 pt/100

76.0% #53

—

+0.3 pt/100

Bryant net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -13.9 pts/100

Marist has the ball

OffenseBryant allowsvs D1 avg

49.3% #276

52.7% #257

-0.6 pt/100

16.9% #193

14.6% #316

+1.6 pt/100

29.1% #233

31.0% #203

-0.4 pt/100

25.7% #360

33.5% #141

-0.7 pt/100

78.1% #16

—

+0.5 pt/100

Marist net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Bryantoffense vsMaristdefense

Share of shots by zone

Bryant shoots

38.1

3.2

11.2

47.6

Marist allows

37.4

6.1

19.2

37.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.6%#283	54.0%#40	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.6%#277	36.7%#105	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	27.8%#363	34.9%#72	38.0%
Three	30.0%#343	28.6%#2	33.7%

Maristoffense vsBryantdefense

Share of shots by zone

Marist shoots

35.8

6.9

23.6

33.7

Bryant allows

45.4

5.1

13.5

36.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.4%#181	57.5%#128	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#152	44.0%#267	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.5%#92	34.7%#65	38.0%
Three	32.2%#272	36.3%#320	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Bryant

−5.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#354 of 365

Off reb %

27.7%

#276

Def reb %

69.0%

#203

Turnover %

20.2%

#351

Forced TO %

14.6%

#316

FT rate

29.4%

#322

FT allowed

33.5%

#141

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.9

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−2.4

Forcing turnovers−1.4

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed+0.4

Marist

−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#218 of 365

Off reb %

29.1%

#233

Def reb %

71.7%

#77

Turnover %

16.9%

#193

Forced TO %

19.5%

#34

FT rate

25.7%

#360

FT allowed

37.6%

#252

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.8

Ball security−0.1

Forcing turnovers+1.9

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed−0.6

Marist has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#218 of 365) to Bryant’s −5.8 (#354).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bryant2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
99	Timofei Rudovskii	F	Fr	6'9"	31-31	31.5	12.9	4.7	1.8	2.5	52.0%	36.2%	6.0	83.7%	27.3%
0	Ashley Sims II	F	Fr	6'8"	31-29	31.4	7.2	5.0	2.0	1.2	50.5%	17.9%	1.3	48.9%	16.4%
1	Ty Tabales	G	Fr	6'2"	30-28	27.9	9.1	2.2	3.5	2.5	39.4%	26.4%	5.9	80.4%	29.1%
14	Keegan Harvey	F	Sr	6'11"	31-31	26.5	11.2	4.9	1.1	2.0	60.4%	40.0%	2.3	83.2%	24.7%
3	Aaron Davis III	F	Jr	6'7"	30-16	23.3	9.5	3.5	0.7	1.1	52.6%	36.3%	5.3	67.2%	26.2%
13	Jakai Robinson	G	Sr	6'5"	30-4	15.9	3.1	2.0	0.9	0.4	40.0%	20.0%	0.3	82.0%	13.2%
4	Quincy Allen	G	Sr	6'8"	16-9	24.6	9.8	4.3	1.0	1.3	46.2%	26.9%	4.2	62.9%	27.1%
2	Khalil Williams	F	So	6'5"	22-5	11.4	2.8	1.6	1.1	1.2	32.1%	21.3%	2.1	90.9%	27.4%
9	Gio Sanford	F	Fr	6'4"	18-0	13.2	1.8	1.3	0.7	0.4	40.3%	9.1%	0.6	57.1%	11.8%
11	Ethane Bourgade	F	Fr	6'9"	20-0	10.1	1.4	1.8	0.3	0.3	30.6%	14.3%	0.3	52.9%	13.4%
8	Lennart Weber	F	Sr	6'8"	20-0	9.4	2.4	1.5	0.4	0.3	47.7%	21.1%	0.9	66.7%	17.2%
10	Daniel Akoue	F	Fr	6'10"	12-2	11.7	3.0	2.1	0.3	1.1	47.8%	18.2%	0.9	77.8%	19.2%
7	Joe Green	G	Fr	6'3"	9-0	4.9	1.1	0.3	0.3	0.7	44.4%	—	0.0	100.0%	21.2%
6	Langston Bailey	G	So	5'9"	7-0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.0	0.6	62.5%	40.0%	0.7	100.0%	54.1%
21	Frankie Vassalluzzo	G	So	6'0"	7-0	1.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	26.6%
22	Jason Sepe	F	So	6'3"	6-0	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.9%
5	Jaheim Nyam	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	47.8%
30	Michael DeOrsey	G	Fr	5'11"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	23.9%
25	Reed Woerner	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Marist2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Jadin Collins-Roberts	G	Sr	6'1"	31-31	30.3	7.2	4.5	3.2	2.2	47.2%	23.8%	1.4	80.4%	18.4%
1	Jack Grahamat New Hampshire	G	Sr	6'3"	30-23	28.0	11.2	3.0	1.0	1.3	50.7%	32.2%	5.8	66.7%	25.2%
5	Myles Parker	F	So	6'8"	31-0	14.5	5.1	2.5	0.7	0.5	59.1%	38.5%	2.5	78.6%	19.4%
21	Jordan Gabriel	C	So	6'9"	25-0	7.0	2.3	1.8	0.3	0.3	53.3%	0.0%	0.1	45.5%	21.5%
25	Tarik Watson	C	Jr	6'8"	10-0	11.2	6.1	2.3	0.3	0.4	44.8%	—	0.0	75.0%	35.1%
23	Brady MacAdams	G	Fr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
11	Brandon Arnold	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Cameron Sweeney	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
31	Drew Diaz	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Dywane Chess	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Edward Onyia	F	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
33	Josh Williams	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Logan Franz	C	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
24	Logan Rodriguez	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Jack Graham (from New Hampshire)

Bryant2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
99	Timofei Rudovskii	F	Fr	6'9"	31-31	31.5	12.9	4.7	1.8	2.5	52.0%	36.2%	6.0	83.7%	27.3%
0	Ashley Sims II	F	Fr	6'8"	31-29	31.4	7.2	5.0	2.0	1.2	50.5%	17.9%	1.3	48.9%	16.4%
1	Ty Tabales	G	Fr	6'2"	30-28	27.9	9.1	2.2	3.5	2.5	39.4%	26.4%	5.9	80.4%	29.1%
14	Keegan Harvey	F	Sr	6'11"	31-31	26.5	11.2	4.9	1.1	2.0	60.4%	40.0%	2.3	83.2%	24.7%
3	Aaron Davis III	F	Jr	6'7"	30-16	23.3	9.5	3.5	0.7	1.1	52.6%	36.3%	5.3	67.2%	26.2%
13	Jakai Robinson	G	Sr	6'5"	30-4	15.9	3.1	2.0	0.9	0.4	40.0%	20.0%	0.3	82.0%	13.2%
4	Quincy Allen	G	Sr	6'8"	16-9	24.6	9.8	4.3	1.0	1.3	46.2%	26.9%	4.2	62.9%	27.1%
2	Khalil Williams	F	So	6'5"	22-5	11.4	2.8	1.6	1.1	1.2	32.1%	21.3%	2.1	90.9%	27.4%
9	Gio Sanford	F	Fr	6'4"	18-0	13.2	1.8	1.3	0.7	0.4	40.3%	9.1%	0.6	57.1%	11.8%
11	Ethane Bourgade	F	Fr	6'9"	20-0	10.1	1.4	1.8	0.3	0.3	30.6%	14.3%	0.3	52.9%	13.4%
8	Lennart Weber	F	Sr	6'8"	20-0	9.4	2.4	1.5	0.4	0.3	47.7%	21.1%	0.9	66.7%	17.2%
10	Daniel Akoue	F	Fr	6'10"	12-2	11.7	3.0	2.1	0.3	1.1	47.8%	18.2%	0.9	77.8%	19.2%
7	Joe Green	G	Fr	6'3"	9-0	4.9	1.1	0.3	0.3	0.7	44.4%	—	0.0	100.0%	21.2%
6	Langston Bailey	G	So	5'9"	7-0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.0	0.6	62.5%	40.0%	0.7	100.0%	54.1%
21	Frankie Vassalluzzo	G	So	6'0"	7-0	1.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	26.6%
22	Jason Sepe	F	So	6'3"	6-0	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.9%
5	Jaheim Nyam	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	47.8%
30	Michael DeOrsey	G	Fr	5'11"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	23.9%
25	Reed Woerner	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Bryant

Against the spread

Season

11-18

Home

6-5

Road

5-13

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.5

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-18

Home

7-4

Road

4-14

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +10.6

Over 2 straightOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 57–77	+12.0	L−8.0	131.5	O134	95.9	129.5	59.5
Mar 3	New HampshireAdjEM #340	A	L 83–88 2OT	+1.0	L−4.0	135.5	O171	106.3	112.7	78.1
Feb 28	NJITAdjEM #331	H	W 69–52	+1.5	W+18.5	138.5	U121	107.3	80.9	64.3
Feb 26	UMBCAdjEM #147	A	L 58–70	+10.0	L−2.0	138.0	U128	91.7	110.7	63.3
Feb 19	BinghamtonAdjEM #354	H	L 67–79	−5.5	L−17.5	135.0	O146	110.6	130.4	60.6
Feb 14	VermontAdjEM #199	A	L 63–90	+12.5	L−14.5	133.0	O153	94.4	134.8	66.8
Feb 12	UMass LowellAdjEM #308	A	L 69–88	+4.5	L−14.5	142.0	O157	105.6	134.7	65.3
Feb 7	MaineAdjEM #335	H	W 73–67	−2.5	W+3.5	128.0	O140	107.7	98.8	67.8
Feb 5	UAlbanyAdjEM #306	H	L 63–65	−1.0	L−3.0	134.0	U128	104.3	107.7	60.4
Jan 31	New HampshireAdjEM #340	H	W 92–84	−1.0	W+7.0	132.5	O176	124.4	113.6	73.9

Marist

Against the spread

Season

15-14-1

Home

7-6-1

Road

6-8

Last 10

5-5

avg cover −1.6

Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

11-19

Home

4-10

Road

6-8

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −5.5

Under in the last gameOver in 1 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	MerrimackAdjEM #158	N	L 57–58	+3.0	W+2.0	128.5	U115	89.2	90.7	63.9
Mar 7	QuinnipiacAdjEM #190	N	W 77–75	+2.0	W+4.0	134.5	O152	105.4	102.6	73.1
Mar 1	Saint Peter'sAdjEM #225	H	L 56–63	−4.0	L−11.0	132.0	U119	87.6	98.6	63.9
Feb 22	Sacred HeartAdjEM #278	H	W 65–63	−7.5	L−5.5	146.5	U128	96.0	93.1	67.7
Feb 20	ManhattanAdjEM #328	A	W 84–70	−5.0	W+9.0	142.0	O154	131.2	109.3	64.0
Feb 15	SienaAdjEM #134	H	L 63–67	−2.0	L−6.0	134.0	U130	96.5	102.7	65.3
Feb 12	MerrimackAdjEM #158	A	L 56–81	+2.5	L−22.5	129.5	O137	84.5	122.2	66.3
Feb 7	FairfieldAdjEM #230	A	L 60–63	−1.0	L−4.0	138.0	U123	98.1	103.0	61.2
Feb 5	RiderAdjEM #356	H	W 81–52	−14.0	W+15.0	135.5	U133	137.2	88.1	59.0
Feb 1	NiagaraAdjEM #337	A	W 58–46	−9.5	W+2.5	130.0	U104	94.8	75.2	61.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BryantMarist

Efficiency

100.5

103.6

113.4

102.6

66.3

67.6

—

Shooting

46.9%

49.3%

48.7%

49.8%

30.0%

32.2%

76.0%

78.1%

29.4%

25.7%

Ball control & glass

20.2%

16.9%

14.6%

19.5%

27.7%

29.1%

31.0%

28.3%

12.2%

10.0%

8.7%

8.3%

Style

47.9%

34.6%

39.2%

43.6%

7.9%

11.2%

53.1%

58.9%

28.4%

35.5%

Roster

2.17

3.46

6'7.1"

6'3.8"

—

26.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Bryant

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Bryant's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Marist

Returning minutes: 26.9%Returning production: 25.0%

Lost

Rhyjon Blackwell 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Justin Menard 29.3 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Elijah Lewis 22.9 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jaden Daughtry 21.0 mpg, 5.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Parby Kabamba 16.8 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jason Schofield 14.0 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Jack Graham from New Hampshire · 28.0 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
Cameron Sweeney no D1 minutes last season
Josh Williams no D1 minutes last season
Edward Onyia no D1 minutes last season
Logan Franz no D1 minutes last season
Logan Rodriguez no D1 minutes last season

Returns 27% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Dec 13	2025-26	Marist 82 – 74 Bryant

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.