Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Florida International Panthers basketball preview & prediction
Tue, Nov 24 · 1:00 PM ET · Ocean Bank Convocation Center, Miami, FL
Florida International MTENon-conferenceESPN+Ocean Bank Convocation Center, Miami, FL
Southern Utah
2025-26: 10-22 · 6-13 conf
Efficiency #278
@
FIU
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #191
Tue, Nov 24 · 1:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 75.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, FIU is the faster team (76.1, #52 of 365) and Southern Utah the slower (70.9, #59). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
75.9
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.5#69
Southern Utah
73.9#34
FIU
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
FIU has the ball+5.0
Southern Utah has the ball−5.9
FIU has the ball
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 15.8% #109 · SUU forces 14.8% #303 · ~11 turnovers+3.3
✓Gets to the lineFTR 43.5% #101 · SUU allows 29.8% #55 · FT 92.6% #1+1.4
✓Shoots it welleFG% 48.4% #206 · SUU allows 53.2% #276+0.4
✗Few second chancesOR% 29.7% #216 · SUU allows 33.6% #309−0.1
Southern Utah has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.7% #200 · FIU allows 35.6% #8−7.8
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 20.3% #352 · FIU forces 14.5% #285 · ~13 turnovers+1.1
✓Wins second chancesOR% 28.8% #239 · FIU allows 38.9% #303+0.8
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 33.1% #235 · FIU allows 38.4% #197 · FT 71.5% #2210.0
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootSouthern Utahoffense vsFIUdefense
Share of shots by zone
Southern Utah shoots
41.8
6.9
15.9
35.4
FIU allows
42.0
7.2
20.3
30.4
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.3%#113 | 41.4%#18 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 38.1%#219 | 20.0%#54 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 35.0%#291 | 21.4%#66 | 34.7% |
| Three | 33.0%#231 | 26.1%#61 | 32.5% |
FIUoffense vsSouthern Utahdefense
Share of shots by zone
FIU shoots
33.9
3.2
8.1
54.8
Southern Utah allows
46.3
5.6
19.0
29.2
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.7%#83 | 57.5%#132 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 35.1%#60 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 20.0%#279 | 42.7%#324 | 34.7% |
| Three | 29.4%#226 | 38.0%#358 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineSouthern Utah
−4.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#333 of 365
Off reb %
28.8%
#239
Def reb %
66.4%
#309
Turnover %
20.3%
#352
Forced TO %
14.8%
#303
FT rate
33.1%
#235
FT allowed
29.8%
#55
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.5
Defensive rebounding−1.0
Ball security−2.4
Forcing turnovers−1.3
Foul shots drawn−0.5
Foul shots allowed+1.4
FIU
−2.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#214 of 365
Off reb %
29.7%
#216
Def reb %
61.1%
#303
Turnover %
15.8%
#109
Forced TO %
14.5%
#285
FT rate
43.5%
#101
FT allowed
38.4%
#197
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−2.4
Ball security+1.8
Forcing turnovers−2.6
Foul shots drawn+1.6
Foul shots allowed−0.1
FIU has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.3 (#214 of 365) to Southern Utah’s −4.2 (#333).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Southern Utah2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | G | Fr | 5'10" | 3-0 | 15.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 53.6% | 20.0% | 1.7 | 60.0% | 18.6% | |
| 35 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 92.9% | 57.1% | 2.3 | 50.0% | 18.0% | |
| 6 | F | Fr | 6'10" | 3-0 | 14.3 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 67.5% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 25.7% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 14.0 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 69.4% | 50.0% | 0.7 | 86.7% | 32.7% | |
| 22 | G | So | 6'2" | 3-0 | 13.7 | 15.7 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 72.4% | 50.0% | 5.3 | 62.5% | 41.5% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 3-0 | 13.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 1.3 | 100.0% | 9.7% | |
| 33 | G | So | 6'4" | 3-3 | 13.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 57.1% | 44.4% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 19.5% | |
| 11 | F | Jr | 6'8" | 3-0 | 13.7 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 44.7% | 33.3% | 1.0 | 66.7% | 26.5% | |
| 7 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 3-3 | 13.3 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 85.7% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 35.8% | |
| 4 | G | So | 6'7" | 3-0 | 13.3 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 30.0% | 33.3% | 1.0 | — | 8.8% | |
| 10 | G | So | 6'1" | 3-0 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 52.4% | 30.8% | 4.3 | 100.0% | 30.5% | |
| 5 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 3-3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 63.2% | 36.4% | 3.7 | 100.0% | 26.6% | |
| 24 | F | So | 6'8" | 3-3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 91.7% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 80.0% | 20.2% | |
| 1 | F | So | 6'6" | 3-0 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 2.7 | 50.0% | 30.2% | |
| 32 | C | Fr | 7'1" | 3-0 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 21.8% |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesSouthern Utah
Against the spread
Season
15-13-1
Home
5-5
Road
9-7-1
Last 10
6-4
avg cover +3.2
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 6 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-12
Home
6-4
Road
11-6
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +4.0
Under in the last gameOver in 7 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Bethesda Flames | H | W 143–49 | — | — | — | — | 179.2 | 61.4 | 79.8 |
| Nov 5 | Grace University Lancers | H | W 97–53 | — | — | — | — | 131.3 | 71.7 | 73.9 |
| Nov 2 | West Coast Baptist Eagles | H | W 134–69 | — | — | — | — | 162.4 | 83.6 | 82.5 |
| Mar 12 | UT Arlington | N | L 63–69 | +5.0 | L−1.0 | 141.5 | U132 | 88.3 | 96.7 | 71.3 |
| Mar 7 | CA Baptist | H | L 75–82 | +6.5 | L−0.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 107.2 | 117.2 | 69.9 |
| Mar 5 | Utah Valley | H | L 88–92 | +10.0 | W+6.0 | 150.0 | O180 | 123.5 | 129.1 | 71.3 |
| Feb 28 | Utah Tech | H | W 81–67 | +2.0 | W+16.0 | 156.0 | U148 | 122.1 | 101.0 | 66.3 |
| Feb 21 | Abilene Chrstn | A | L 83–87 | +8.0 | W+4.0 | 143.5 | O170 | 110.6 | 115.9 | 75.1 |
| Feb 19 | Tarleton St | A | L 74–78 | +5.0 | W+1.0 | 145.0 | O152 | 110.5 | 116.5 | 67.0 |
| Feb 14 | UT Arlington | A | W 78–73 | +8.5 | W+13.5 | 144.5 | O151 | 111.7 | 104.5 | 69.8 |
FIU
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −6.5
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −4.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | West Florida | H | W 85–75 | −16.5 | L−6.5 | 164.0 | U160 | 111.8 | 98.6 | 76.1 |
| Nov 2 | New College Mighty Banyans | H | W 101–58 | — | — | — | — | 121.1 | 69.6 | 83.4 |
| Mar 10 | Missouri St | N | L 72–75 | +1.0 | L−2.0 | 152.5 | U147 | 110.5 | 115.1 | 65.1 |
| Mar 7 | Western KY | H | W 92–67 | +1.0 | W+26.0 | 160.0 | U159 | 125.7 | 91.5 | 73.2 |
| Mar 5 | MTSU | H | L 67–73 | +1.0 | L−5.0 | 153.5 | U140 | 97.4 | 106.1 | 68.8 |
| Feb 28 | Louisiana Tech | A | W 84–76 | +2.0 | W+10.0 | 146.0 | O160 | 120.7 | 109.2 | 69.6 |
| Feb 26 | Sam Houston | A | L 67–100 | +6.0 | L−27.0 | 162.0 | O167 | 91.4 | 136.4 | 73.3 |
| Feb 21 | Missouri St | H | W 70–67 | −3.5 | L−0.5 | 155.0 | U137 | 104.2 | 99.7 | 67.2 |
| Feb 19 | Liberty | A | L 89–90 OT | +10.5 | W+9.5 | 153.5 | O179 | 112.3 | 113.6 | 79.2 |
| Feb 14 | Louisiana Tech | H | W 77–64 | −3.0 | W+10.0 | 146.5 | U141 | 113.9 | 94.7 | 67.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeSouthern UtahFIU
Efficiency
103.0
104.8
109.9
106.7
72.5
73.9
—
-13.8
Shooting
50.7%
48.4%
51.4%
53.6%
33.0%
29.4%
71.5%
92.6%
33.1%
43.5%
Ball control & glass
20.3%
15.8%
14.8%
14.5%
28.8%
29.7%
33.6%
38.9%
12.4%
10.5%
10.2%
10.7%
Style
35.5%
54.8%
48.0%
35.3%
13.2%
21.2%
49.6%
60.0%
32.1%
38.7%
Roster
3.20
2.73
6'8.5"
6'3.9"
24.2%
0.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputSouthern Utah
Returning minutes: 24.2%Returning production: 28.7%
Lost
- Tanner Hayhurst 28.3 mpg, 10.0 ppg · transferred to W Michigan
- Elijah Duval 25.6 mpg, 14.8 ppg · transferred to UAB
- Isaiah Cottrell 25.5 mpg, 8.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Dylan Jones 23.2 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Kai Burdick 13.7 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Lorenzo Abellar 11.2 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- JaJuan Nicholls from Tennessee Tech · 17.9 mpg, 11.2 ppg last season
- Chase Degraffenried no D1 minutes last season
- Jalik Nicholls no D1 minutes last season
- Rashaad Davis no D1 minutes last season
- Mikhail Protsenko no D1 minutes last season
- Dezhon Hall no D1 minutes last season
Returns 24% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
FIU
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Corey Stephenson 30.2 mpg, 17.5 ppg · transferred to Ole Miss
- Zawdie Jackson 28.2 mpg, 11.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Eric Dibami 27.2 mpg, 8.7 ppg · transferred to Santa Barbara
- Hamed Olayinka 23.7 mpg, 10.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Julian Mackey 21.3 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Brit Harris 18.7 mpg, 5.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Tijan Saine Jr. from Weber St · 32.6 mpg, 17.5 ppg last season
- Corey Caulker from East Carolina · 30.7 mpg, 7.9 ppg last season
- Jerald Colonel from SF Austin · 25.1 mpg, 5.0 ppg last season
- Ramone Seals from Kennesaw St · 11.2 mpg, 4.8 ppg last season
- Jaylin Payne from Longwood · 7.3 mpg, 1.7 ppg last season
- Huascar Cuevas from Wagner · 2.2 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Tue, Nov 24
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- Ohio vs New Mexico St · 11:00 AM ET
- SE Louisiana vs N Colorado · 12:30 PM ET
- Belmont vs Akron · 12:30 PM ET
- Lindenwood vs New Haven · 1:00 PM ET
- Oklahoma vs Pitt · 1:30 PM ET
- Rice vs UIC · 1:30 PM ET
- Oregon St vs San Francisco · 2:00 PM ET
- Tennessee vs Maryland · 3:00 PM ET
- Miami vs TCU · 3:00 PM ET
- North Dakota vs Detroit Mercy · 3:00 PM ET
- App State vs Yale · 3:00 PM ET
- Long Beach St vs Arkansas St · 3:30 PM ET
- Air Force vs Army · 4:00 PM ET
- Tulsa vs Illinois St · 4:30 PM ET
- Creighton vs Michigan · 5:30 PM ET
- San Diego St vs Iowa State · 5:30 PM ET
- Wyoming vs Kent State · 5:30 PM ET
- DePaul vs Purdue · 6:00 PM ET
- E Michigan vs Kennesaw St · 6:00 PM ET
- Queens at Wofford · 6:00 PM ET
- Mercer at FAU · 6:00 PM ET
- S Indiana at VMI · 6:00 PM ET
- Sacred Heart at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Elon at Furman · 6:30 PM ET
- Robert Morris vs Lamar · 6:30 PM ET
- Milwaukee at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at Bowling Green · 7:00 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Charleston So at James Madison · 7:00 PM ET
- Nevada vs Santa Clara · 7:00 PM ET
- Jacksonville at Indiana · 7:00 PM ET
- Vanderbilt at Ohio State · 7:00 PM ET
- Stetson at South Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Samford at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Harvard · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
- UMBC at Iowa · 7:00 PM ET
- Campbell at Coastal · 7:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Seton Hall · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Morgan St · 7:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at Chattanooga · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Loyola MD · 7:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Marist · 7:00 PM ET
- Tarleton St at Weber St · 7:00 PM ET
- Hampton at Old Dominion · 7:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Tennessee Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Hou Christian at UL Monroe · 7:30 PM ET
- High Point vs Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Purdue FW at SE Missouri · 7:30 PM ET
- C Michigan at Notre Dame · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Tech vs Louisville · 8:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at Auburn · 8:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Kansas City · 8:00 PM ET
- Drexel at Penn · 8:00 PM ET
- Bucknell at Cornell · 8:00 PM ET
- Alabama A&M at North Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- Oral Roberts at UT Arlington · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at South Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- Charleston vs UTEP · 8:30 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at Florida St · 9:00 PM ET
- Evansville at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Santa Barbara · 9:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Washington St · 9:00 PM ET
- Grand Canyon vs Saint Louis · 9:30 PM ET
- Baylor vs Alabama · 10:00 PM ET
- Oregon vs St John's · 10:30 PM ET
- Stanford vs Colorado · 11:59 PM ET
- Gonzaga vs Kansas St · 12:30 AM ET
- Bellarmine vs GA Southern · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.