Belmont Bruins vs Akron Zips basketball preview & prediction
Tue, Nov 24 · 12:30 PM ET · State Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL (neutral site)
ESPN Events Invitational - Adventure BracketNeutral siteNon-conferenceESPN2State Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL
Belmont
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #71
vs
Akron
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #59
Tue, Nov 24 · 12:30 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Belmont is the faster team (73.0, #106 of 365) and Akron the slower (67.7, #271). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.5
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.3#80
Belmont
71.8#105
Akron
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Akron has the ball−7.7
Belmont has the ball−7.9
Akron has the ball
✗Coughs it upTO% 23.6% #319 · BEL forces 26.0% #24 · ~19 turnovers−7.3
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 56.0% #90 · BEL allows 36.1% #12−4.1
✓Wins second chancesOR% 37.9% #71 · BEL allows 35.6% #260+2.9
✓Gets to the lineFTR 46.0% #80 · BEL allows 31.1% #113 · FT 82.6% #26+0.9
Belmont has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 21.9% #322 · AKR allows 24.4% #57−4.6
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 57.7% #58 · AKR allows 35.7% #9−3.3
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 36.5% #181 · AKR allows 34.9% #167 · FT 63.2% #278−0.6
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 26.0% #342 · AKR forces 10.3% #345 · ~13 turnovers+0.5
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootBelmontoffense vsAkrondefense
Share of shots by zone
Belmont shoots
52.2
2.2
6.5
39.1
Akron allows
32.2
8.5
11.9
47.5
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 66.7%#83 | 42.1%#23 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 100.0%#1 | 0.0%#1 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#174 | 14.3%#40 | 34.7% |
| Three | 30.0%#221 | 32.1%#171 | 32.5% |
Akronoffense vsBelmontdefense
Share of shots by zone
Akron shoots
34.7
4.1
2.0
59.2
Belmont allows
35.7
5.4
23.2
35.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 64.7%#105 | 50.0%#75 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 66.7%#322 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 0.0%#327 | 15.4%#44 | 34.7% |
| Three | 34.5%#141 | 19.0%#13 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineBelmont
−2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#221 of 365
Off reb %
21.9%
#322
Def reb %
64.4%
#260
Turnover %
26.0%
#342
Forced TO %
26.0%
#24
FT rate
36.5%
#181
FT allowed
31.1%
#113
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−3.2
Defensive rebounding−1.3
Ball security−5.5
Forcing turnovers+5.7
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.8
Akron
−1.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#204 of 365
Off reb %
37.9%
#71
Def reb %
75.6%
#57
Turnover %
23.6%
#319
Forced TO %
10.3%
#345
FT rate
46.0%
#80
FT allowed
34.9%
#167
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding+2.4
Ball security−3.8
Forcing turnovers−5.5
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Akron has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.8 (#204 of 365) to Belmont’s −2.9 (#221).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Belmont2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | G | So | 6'2" | 2-2 | 31.0 | 20.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 54.5% | 40.0% | 7.5 | 100.0% | 35.6% | Active | |
| 5 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 24.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 46.4% | 30.0% | 5.0 | 50.0% | 20.8% | Active | |
| 9 | C | Jr | 7'1" | 2-2 | 24.0 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 87.5% | — | 0.0 | 60.0% | 24.1% | Active | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 2-2 | 21.5 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 35.7% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 14.3% | Active | |
| 10 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 2-2 | 20.0 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 41.7% | 0.0% | 2.5 | 71.4% | 26.2% | Active | |
| 0 | G | So | 6'7" | 2-0 | 19.5 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 14.5% | Active | |
| 4 | G | So | 6'3" | 2-0 | 18.0 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 87.5% | 66.7% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 22.5% | Active | |
| 1 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-0 | 17.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 15.9% | Active | |
| 23 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 1-0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 27.3% | Active | |
| 11 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 1-0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 66.7% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 29.1% | Missed last | |
| 13 | G | Jr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 30.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 32.2% | Active | |
| 22 | F | Fr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 24.0% | Active | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 40.0% | Active | |
| 33 | F | Jr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 40.0% | Active |
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesBelmont
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +0.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-1
Road
0-0
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −29.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | Lipscomb | A | L 75–88 | −4.0 | L−17.0 | 158.0 | O163 | — | — | — |
| Nov 5 | Centre Colonels | H | W 75–45 | — | — | — | — | 111.3 | 66.8 | 67.4 |
| Nov 2 | S Indiana | H | W 72–54 | −17.5 | W+0.5 | 155.5 | U126 | 98.6 | 73.9 | 73.0 |
| Mar 6 | Drake | N | L 79–100 | −12.5 | L−33.5 | 153.5 | O179 | 109.5 | 138.6 | 72.2 |
| Mar 1 | Illinois St | A | L 74–81 | −1.0 | L−8.0 | 151.0 | O155 | 119.8 | 131.1 | 61.8 |
| Feb 25 | Evansville | H | W 98–64 | −18.5 | W+15.5 | 152.0 | O162 | 145.2 | 94.8 | 67.5 |
| Feb 21 | Indiana St | H | W 87–70 | −13.0 | W+4.0 | 156.0 | O157 | 119.2 | 95.9 | 73.0 |
| Feb 15 | Murray St | A | W 87–70 | −1.0 | W+16.0 | 166.5 | U157 | 118.8 | 95.6 | 73.2 |
| Feb 12 | Northern Iowa | H | W 91–86 | −4.5 | W+0.5 | 140.0 | O177 | 128.2 | 121.2 | 71.0 |
| Feb 9 | Bradley | A | L 84–95 OT | −1.0 | L−12.0 | 153.0 | O179 | 108.6 | 122.8 | 77.4 |
Akron
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +9.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −12.0
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Muskingum Fighting Muskies | H | W 112–64 | — | — | — | — | 144.1 | 82.4 | 77.7 |
| Nov 2 | Louisiana | A | W 75–61 | −5.0 | W+9.0 | 148.0 | U136 | 110.8 | 90.1 | 67.7 |
| Mar 20 | #5Texas Tech | N | L 71–91 | +6.5 | L−13.5 | 154.0 | O162 | 108.8 | 139.4 | 65.3 |
| Mar 14 | Toledo | N | W 79–76 | −8.0 | L−5.0 | 157.5 | U155 | 115.8 | 111.4 | 68.2 |
| Mar 13 | Kent State | N | W 75–68 | −6.5 | W+0.5 | 163.0 | U143 | 109.7 | 99.5 | 68.3 |
| Mar 12 | Buffalo | N | W 73–70 | −12.5 | L−9.5 | 158.0 | U143 | 105.0 | 100.7 | 69.5 |
| Mar 6 | N Illinois | H | W 94–55 | −23.5 | W+15.5 | 156.0 | U149 | 135.8 | 79.5 | 69.2 |
| Mar 3 | C Michigan | A | W 77–64 | −11.5 | W+1.5 | 158.5 | U141 | 113.2 | 94.1 | 68.0 |
| Feb 27 | Kent State | A | W 92–70 | −3.5 | W+18.5 | 165.0 | U162 | 130.7 | 99.4 | 70.4 |
| Feb 24 | Buffalo | H | W 99–85 | −15.0 | L−1.0 | 160.0 | O184 | 123.4 | 106.0 | 80.2 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBelmontAkron
Efficiency
110.9
113.4
102.0
102.9
72.3
71.8
-10.0
-11.1
Shooting
57.7%
56.0%
65.6%
61.9%
30.0%
34.5%
63.2%
82.6%
36.5%
46.0%
Ball control & glass
26.0%
23.6%
26.0%
10.3%
21.9%
37.9%
35.6%
24.4%
16.4%
11.8%
9.4%
9.5%
Style
38.5%
58.0%
55.6%
34.7%
16.7%
13.3%
40.7%
60.9%
39.3%
43.0%
Roster
2.61
3.53
6'5.7"
6'5"
38.3%
25.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBelmont
Returning minutes: 38.3%Returning production: 34.2%
Lost
- Tyler Lundblade 34.3 mpg, 15.6 ppg · transferred to Tennessee
- Sam Orme 23.2 mpg, 11.5 ppg · transferred to Nebraska
- Drew Scharnowski 20.3 mpg, 10.1 ppg · transferred to Duke
- Brigham Rogers 18.2 mpg, 7.1 ppg · transferred to Murray St
- Nic McClain 11.9 mpg, 4.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Win Miller 7.3 mpg, 2.5 ppg · transferred to Samford
Added
- Kayden Fish from Ball State · 13.7 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
- Vincent Neugebauer from FAU · 3.2 mpg, 1.0 ppg last season
- Matthew Zobrist from Bradley · 1.9 mpg, 0.6 ppg last season
- Aleksa Ristic from Indiana · 1.0 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
- Ethan Sage no D1 minutes last season
- Eli Brown no D1 minutes last season
Returns 38% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Akron
Returning minutes: 25.9%Returning production: 25.3%
Lost
- Tavari Johnson 31.9 mpg, 19.7 ppg · transferred to Charleston
- Shammah Scott 26.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Amani Lyles 26.4 mpg, 14.9 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Eric Mahaffey 21.3 mpg, 7.6 ppg · transferred to Cincinnati
- Sharron Young 18.6 mpg, 7.0 ppg · transferred to Western KY
- Bowen Hardman 18.4 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Kamrin Oriol from North Florida · 35.7 mpg, 20.9 ppg last season
- Tahj Staveskie from Incarnate Word · 35.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg last season
- Max Burton from W Michigan · 23.8 mpg, 5.7 ppg last season
- Ty Pence from Illinois St · 23.5 mpg, 9.4 ppg last season
- Buddy Hammer Jr. from North Texas · 12.5 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
- Colin White from Ohio State · 7.5 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
Returns 26% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Tue, Nov 24
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- SE Louisiana vs N Colorado · 12:30 PM ET
- Southern Utah at FIU · 1:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood vs New Haven · 1:00 PM ET
- Oklahoma vs Pitt · 1:30 PM ET
- Rice vs UIC · 1:30 PM ET
- Oregon St vs San Francisco · 2:00 PM ET
- Tennessee vs Maryland · 3:00 PM ET
- Miami vs TCU · 3:00 PM ET
- North Dakota vs Detroit Mercy · 3:00 PM ET
- App State vs Yale · 3:00 PM ET
- Long Beach St vs Arkansas St · 3:30 PM ET
- Air Force vs Army · 4:00 PM ET
- Tulsa vs Illinois St · 4:30 PM ET
- Creighton vs Michigan · 5:30 PM ET
- San Diego St vs Iowa State · 5:30 PM ET
- Wyoming vs Kent State · 5:30 PM ET
- DePaul vs Purdue · 6:00 PM ET
- E Michigan vs Kennesaw St · 6:00 PM ET
- Queens at Wofford · 6:00 PM ET
- Mercer at FAU · 6:00 PM ET
- S Indiana at VMI · 6:00 PM ET
- Sacred Heart at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Elon at Furman · 6:30 PM ET
- Robert Morris vs Lamar · 6:30 PM ET
- Milwaukee at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at Bowling Green · 7:00 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Charleston So at James Madison · 7:00 PM ET
- Nevada vs Santa Clara · 7:00 PM ET
- Jacksonville at Indiana · 7:00 PM ET
- Vanderbilt at Ohio State · 7:00 PM ET
- Stetson at South Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Samford at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Harvard · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
- UMBC at Iowa · 7:00 PM ET
- Campbell at Coastal · 7:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Seton Hall · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Morgan St · 7:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at Chattanooga · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Loyola MD · 7:00 PM ET
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- Bryant at Marist · 7:00 PM ET
- Tarleton St at Weber St · 7:00 PM ET
- Hampton at Old Dominion · 7:00 PM ET
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- Hou Christian at UL Monroe · 7:30 PM ET
- High Point vs Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Purdue FW at SE Missouri · 7:30 PM ET
- C Michigan at Notre Dame · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Tech vs Louisville · 8:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at Auburn · 8:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Kansas City · 8:00 PM ET
- Drexel at Penn · 8:00 PM ET
- Bucknell at Cornell · 8:00 PM ET
- Alabama A&M at North Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- Oral Roberts at UT Arlington · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at South Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- Charleston vs UTEP · 8:30 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at Florida St · 9:00 PM ET
- Evansville at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Santa Barbara · 9:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Washington St · 9:00 PM ET
- Grand Canyon vs Saint Louis · 9:30 PM ET
- Baylor vs Alabama · 10:00 PM ET
- Oregon vs St John's · 10:30 PM ET
- Stanford vs Colorado · 11:59 PM ET
- Gonzaga vs Kansas St · 12:30 AM ET
- Bellarmine vs GA Southern · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.