CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceCameron Hall, Lexington, VA

S Indiana

Efficiency #333

2025-26: 7-23 · 4-16 conf

VMI

Efficiency #361

2025-26: 6-26 · 1-18 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · TBD

73.0

win 51%

Projected

72.8

win 49%

No line posted yet.

Model: USI −0.2 · total 145.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: VMI 67.9, S Indiana 68.6 → 68.2 possessions

−0.3

VMI offense vs S Indiana defense

−3.2

S Indiana offense vs VMI defense

+1.0

Projected total

145.7

Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

VMI offense vs S Indiana defense

−3.2

S Indiana offense vs VMI defense

−1.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

S Indiana by 0.2

0.2

S Indiana side ◂▸ VMI side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to −0.3 against −0.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help VMI.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, S Indiana is the faster team (68.4, #175 of 365) and VMI the slower (67.6, #219). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.7

model

Projected team totals

73.0 / 72.8

S Indiana / VMI

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.6#162

S Indiana

67.9#215

VMI

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageVMI

Where VMI struggles: shooting

VMI shoots an effective 47.6% (#325); S Indiana allows 49.4% (#80). Expect about 48.2%, 3.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.4 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageS Indiana

Where S Indiana scores: the offensive glass

S Indiana rebounds 31.4% of its own misses (#145); VMI lets opponents grab 37.2% of their own misses (#360). Expect about 34.4%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (S Indiana, VMI's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect S Indiana at about 44.2% of its shots from three, VMI about 42.8%.

ClashVMI

Style clash: 3-point volume

VMI takes 53.6% of its shots from three; S Indiana runs teams off the line (27.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 42.8% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashS Indiana

Style clash: ball movement

S Indiana creates off the dribble (assists on 43.0% of its baskets); VMI allows assists on 62.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 52.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.65 vs 0.65).

ClashVMI

Style clash: paint scoring

VMI gets only 32.8% of its points in the paint; S Indiana gives up 49.8% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).

S Indiana has the ball

OffenseVMI allowsvs D1 avg

43.7% #363

57.0% #357

-2.1 pt/100

17.2% #216

15.7% #241

+0.6 pt/100

31.4% #145

37.2% #360

+2.5 pt/100

37.2% #123

34.6% #168

+0.1 pt/100

66.6% #347

—

-0.5 pt/100

S Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.5 pts/100

VMI has the ball

OffenseS Indiana allowsvs D1 avg

47.6% #325

49.4% #80

-4.4 pt/100

15.3% #88

16.4% #190

+1.3 pt/100

25.6% #330

33.8% #315

-1.0 pt/100

30.6% #293

36.2% #212

-0.2 pt/100

72.2% #201

—

-0.0 pt/100

VMI net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

S Indianaoffense vsVMIdefense

Share of shots by zone

S Indiana shoots

39.7

2.9

18.3

39.2

VMI allows

34.3

4.7

14.4

46.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	49.4%#363	66.0%#359	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	31.0%#342	49.3%#351	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.8%#355	44.7%#347	38.0%
Three	29.9%#345	36.5%#327	33.7%

VMIoffense vsS Indianadefense

Share of shots by zone

VMI shoots

32.1

4.2

9.7

53.9

S Indiana allows

47.4

8.0

17.9

26.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.5%#327	56.3%#92	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	19.7%#365	33.3%#31	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.6%#246	35.6%#94	38.0%
Three	31.5%#306	34.1%#193	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

S Indiana

−0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#217 of 365

Off reb %

31.4%

#145

Def reb %

66.2%

#315

Turnover %

17.2%

#216

Forced TO %

16.4%

#190

FT rate

37.2%

#123

FT allowed

36.2%

#212

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding−1.0

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.2

VMI

−4.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#337 of 365

Off reb %

25.6%

#330

Def reb %

62.8%

#360

Turnover %

15.3%

#88

Forced TO %

15.7%

#241

FT rate

30.6%

#293

FT allowed

34.6%

#168

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.5

Defensive rebounding−2.1

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn−1.1

Foul shots allowed+0.2

S Indiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.8 (#217 of 365) to VMI’s −4.4 (#337).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

S Indiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Ismail Habib	G	Sr	6'1"	27-23	32.4	14.7	3.6	2.8	2.4	47.2%	33.0%	6.9	68.8%	30.5%
3	Tolu Samuels	F	Jr	6'8"	29-26	29.5	7.1	8.6	1.3	1.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.4	51.2%	16.8%
5	Ola Ajiboye	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	25.0	6.6	5.1	0.8	0.8	49.3%	0.0%	0.0	65.2%	16.2%
8	Cardell Bailey	G	Sr	6'6"	29-7	24.6	12.6	5.0	0.7	1.4	46.1%	30.9%	5.7	71.4%	33.9%
11	Sheridan Sharp	G	Jr	6'3"	30-7	17.1	4.4	2.1	2.5	1.4	31.8%	25.0%	0.5	63.5%	23.6%
2	Steven Clay	G	Sr	6'4"	30-21	14.5	4.4	2.0	0.5	0.5	50.4%	31.0%	2.9	93.3%	18.4%
15	Amaree Brown	G	Jr	6'5"	16-12	26.4	13.8	2.8	1.2	1.9	41.2%	28.8%	3.7	78.5%	36.7%
22	Josiah Dunham	G	So	6'0"	20-10	20.9	4.8	1.9	0.7	0.7	47.3%	35.8%	3.4	80.0%	15.9%
0	Kaden Brown	G	Jr	6'1"	13-12	28.3	11.1	2.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	33.7%	6.6	67.4%	24.0%
13	Devin Curtis	F	Jr	6'11"	27-0	11.3	2.1	2.5	0.2	0.6	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	14.8%
6	Ben Ezeagu	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	8.5	2.1	1.3	0.0	0.7	45.0%	—	0.0	56.0%	18.5%
12	Alem Fejzic	G	So	6'3"	14-0	8.6	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.2	33.8%	21.2%	2.4	—	16.7%
1	Trey Thomas	G	Sr	6'2"	4-2	22.5	11.8	3.3	1.0	2.0	40.9%	18.8%	4.0	100.0%	37.8%
4	Braxton Jones	G	Sr	6'0"	4-0	10.5	2.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	19.2%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	20.0%
33	Cayden Gehlhausen	G	So	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.4	1.4	0.0	0.4	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

VMI2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
44	TJ Johnson	F	Jr	6'7"	31-31	35.6	18.3	7.2	1.4	1.6	52.7%	35.5%	10.0	81.9%	29.0%
4	Linus Holmstrom	G	So	6'3"	31-29	27.2	11.4	2.5	1.7	1.4	58.0%	39.4%	6.4	76.2%	23.3%
2	Mario Tatum Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	31-8	25.9	8.5	2.0	1.4	0.6	45.3%	27.3%	3.2	64.6%	21.1%
0	Cal Liston	F	So	6'5"	32-24	23.0	5.3	3.2	1.0	0.7	50.3%	33.3%	3.7	72.0%	14.8%
5	AJ Clark	G	Jr	6'4"	22-22	26.5	6.6	6.0	1.6	1.1	50.4%	37.0%	1.2	66.7%	16.2%
6	Kaden Stuckey	F	So	6'8"	28-7	18.7	4.4	4.9	0.5	1.1	35.3%	0.0%	0.5	62.9%	20.2%
14	Walker Andrews	G	So	6'1"	29-3	13.4	5.9	0.9	0.7	0.3	49.0%	33.3%	3.4	84.4%	24.9%
7	Jaylen Pazon	G	So	6'5"	20-1	13.4	6.7	2.2	0.7	1.1	44.9%	17.6%	1.7	71.1%	33.3%
9	Alexander Daushvili	F	Fr	6'8"	5-3	17.2	6.8	4.2	1.0	0.6	41.2%	0.0%	1.4	83.3%	21.0%
3	Mason Hagedorn	F	So	6'9"	7-1	9.0	2.0	1.7	0.1	0.1	30.4%	36.4%	1.6	—	20.6%
10	Branford Edmonds III	G	So	6'2"	5-0	5.6	2.6	1.6	0.0	0.2	65.0%	37.5%	1.6	—	19.9%
42	Mason Lawson	G	So	6'1"	4-0	1.5	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	150.0%	100.0%	0.3	—	20.8%
1	Rickey Bradley Jr.	G	Sr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
32	Robert Peters	F	Jr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

S Indiana2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Ismail Habib	G	Sr	6'1"	27-23	32.4	14.7	3.6	2.8	2.4	47.2%	33.0%	6.9	68.8%	30.5%
3	Tolu Samuels	F	Jr	6'8"	29-26	29.5	7.1	8.6	1.3	1.0	45.5%	25.0%	0.4	51.2%	16.8%
5	Ola Ajiboye	F	Sr	6'8"	30-30	25.0	6.6	5.1	0.8	0.8	49.3%	0.0%	0.0	65.2%	16.2%
8	Cardell Bailey	G	Sr	6'6"	29-7	24.6	12.6	5.0	0.7	1.4	46.1%	30.9%	5.7	71.4%	33.9%
11	Sheridan Sharp	G	Jr	6'3"	30-7	17.1	4.4	2.1	2.5	1.4	31.8%	25.0%	0.5	63.5%	23.6%
2	Steven Clay	G	Sr	6'4"	30-21	14.5	4.4	2.0	0.5	0.5	50.4%	31.0%	2.9	93.3%	18.4%
15	Amaree Brown	G	Jr	6'5"	16-12	26.4	13.8	2.8	1.2	1.9	41.2%	28.8%	3.7	78.5%	36.7%
22	Josiah Dunham	G	So	6'0"	20-10	20.9	4.8	1.9	0.7	0.7	47.3%	35.8%	3.4	80.0%	15.9%
0	Kaden Brown	G	Jr	6'1"	13-12	28.3	11.1	2.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	33.7%	6.6	67.4%	24.0%
13	Devin Curtis	F	Jr	6'11"	27-0	11.3	2.1	2.5	0.2	0.6	44.4%	0.0%	0.1	44.4%	14.8%
6	Ben Ezeagu	F	Sr	6'7"	15-0	8.5	2.1	1.3	0.0	0.7	45.0%	—	0.0	56.0%	18.5%
12	Alem Fejzic	G	So	6'3"	14-0	8.6	1.6	0.6	0.1	0.2	33.8%	21.2%	2.4	—	16.7%
1	Trey Thomas	G	Sr	6'2"	4-2	22.5	11.8	3.3	1.0	2.0	40.9%	18.8%	4.0	100.0%	37.8%
4	Braxton Jones	G	Sr	6'0"	4-0	10.5	2.3	0.5	0.5	0.3	19.2%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	20.0%
33	Cayden Gehlhausen	G	So	6'8"	5-0	3.4	0.4	1.4	0.0	0.4	100.0%	—	0.0	—	9.6%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

S Indiana

Against the spread

Season

12-15-1

Home

2-8-1

Road

8-7

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −4.3

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

11-17

Home

3-8

Road

6-9

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −0.7

Over in the last gameOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Feb 28	Little RockAdjEM #300	A	L 70–89	+6.0	L−13.0	139.5	O159	104.5	132.8	67.0
Feb 24	Morehead StAdjEM #266	A	L 63–64	+7.5	W+6.5	142.5	U127	104.0	105.7	60.5
Feb 21	E IllinoisAdjEM #317	A	W 70–68	+4.5	W+6.5	136.0	O138	106.9	103.9	65.5
Feb 19	W IllinoisAdjEM #362	A	W 77–70	−2.5	W+4.5	140.0	O147	116.7	106.1	66.0
Feb 14	Tennessee TechAdjEM #298	H	L 74–82	−1.0	L−9.0	139.5	O156	114.9	127.3	64.4
Feb 12	Tennessee StAdjEM #155	H	L 71–73	+6.0	W+4.0	148.5	U144	107.2	110.2	66.2
Feb 7	SE MissouriAdjEM #209	A	L 65–90	+11.0	L−14.0	140.5	O155	96.2	133.2	67.6
Feb 5	UT MartinAdjEM #182	A	L 54–76	+11.5	L−10.5	132.0	U130	84.0	118.3	64.3
Jan 31	SIUEAdjEM #229	H	L 46–58	+2.0	L−10.0	130.5	U104	76.2	96.1	60.4
Jan 29	LindenwoodAdjEM #244	H	L 60–73	+5.0	L−8.0	151.0	U133	77.3	94.0	77.6

VMI

Against the spread

Season

8-19-2

Home

2-9

Road

6-8-1

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 10 as an underdogCovered 3 of 6 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

13-16

Home

6-5

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +4.2

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 6 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	N	L 70–84	+6.5	L−7.5	156.0	U154	103.8	124.6	67.4
Feb 28	ChattanoogaAdjEM #289	A	L 79–86	+11.5	W+4.5	155.0	O165	124.6	135.7	63.4
Feb 26	SamfordAdjEM #202	A	L 61–80	+17.0	L−2.0	156.0	U141	93.0	122.0	65.6
Feb 21	W CarolinaAdjEM #217	H	L 62–81	+9.0	L−10.0	155.0	U143	98.2	128.3	63.2
Feb 18	WoffordAdjEM #235	A	L 76–82	+13.5	W+7.5	158.5	U158	110.3	119.0	68.9
Feb 14	FurmanAdjEM #163	H	L 72–90	+12.0	L−6.0	146.5	O162	101.4	126.8	71.0
Feb 11	UNC GreensboroAdjEM #301	A	L 71–92	+8.5	L−12.5	151.0	O163	102.7	133.0	69.2
Feb 7	ETSUAdjEM #110	H	L 70–87	+14.5	L−2.5	144.0	O157	99.1	123.2	70.6
Feb 4	WoffordAdjEM #235	H	L 67–81	+9.0	L−5.0	150.0	U148	98.9	119.6	67.7
Jan 31	MercerAdjEM #161	A	L 81–95	+18.0	W+4.0	153.5	O176	111.4	130.7	72.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

S IndianaVMI

Efficiency

100.1

101.8

110.6

118.2

68.6

67.9

—

Shooting

43.7%

47.6%

43.0%

47.9%

29.9%

31.5%

66.6%

72.2%

37.2%

30.6%

Ball control & glass

17.2%

15.3%

16.4%

15.7%

31.4%

25.6%

33.8%

37.2%

9.5%

8.6%

14.1%

10.5%

Style

39.7%

53.6%

38.0%

32.8%

14.7%

11.0%

43.0%

50.7%

35.3%

28.4%

Roster

3.41

2.15

6'4.7"

6'4.8"

—

84.9%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

S Indiana

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted S Indiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

VMI

Returning minutes: 84.9%Returning production: 84.7%

Lost

Tan Yildizoglu 30.2 mpg, 9.9 ppg · transferred to Siena

Added

Robert Peters no D1 minutes last season
Rickey Bradley Jr. no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 85% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Fri, Nov 7	2025-26	VMI 78 – 74 S Indiana

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.