CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNewman Arena, Ithaca, NY

Bucknell

Efficiency #334

2025-26: 10-23 · 7-13 conf

Cornell

Efficiency #135

2025-26: 15-13 · 8-7 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · 8:00 PM ET

73.6

win 13%

Projected

86.5

win 87%

No line posted yet.

Model: COR −12.9 · total 160.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Cornell 70.9, Bucknell 68.1 → 70.7 possessions

+5.1

Cornell offense vs Bucknell defense

+7.8

Bucknell offense vs Cornell defense

−1.1

Projected total

160.1

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Cornell offense vs Bucknell defense

+7.8

Bucknell offense vs Cornell defense

+1.1

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Cornell by 12.9

12.9

Bucknell side ◂▸ Cornell side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 160.0 against a projected 160.1, and the margin steps add to +13.0 against +12.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Cornell.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Cornell is the faster team (71.3, #40 of 365) and Bucknell the slower (66.9, #247). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.7

per team, 40 min

Projected total

160.1

model

Projected team totals

73.6 / 86.5

Bucknell / Cornell

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.1#202

Bucknell

70.9#19

Cornell

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageCornell

Where Cornell scores: shooting

Cornell shoots an effective 58.5% (#7); Bucknell allows 54.7% (#323). Expect about 57.2%, 6.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +8.5 points per 100 possessions.

ClashCornell

Style match: ball movement

Cornell assists on 66.7% of its made baskets; Bucknell allows assists on 61.8% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 67.8% — both habits push the same way.

ClashCornell

Style match: 3-point volume

Cornell takes 51.6% of its shots from three; Bucknell lets opponents take 45.7% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 53.2% — both habits push the same way.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Cornell, Bucknell, Cornell's defense, Bucknell's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bucknell at about 41.3% of its shots from three, Cornell about 53.2%.

ClashCornell

Style match: paint scoring

Cornell gets only 38.9% of its points in the paint; Bucknell protects the paint (37.6% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 40.1% — both habits push the same way.

Bucknell has the ball

OffenseCornell allowsvs D1 avg

48.5% #304

55.9% #343

+1.1 pt/100

19.0% #320

15.1% #279

-0.2 pt/100

27.0% #295

30.6% #187

-1.4 pt/100

29.8% #314

37.2% #244

-0.2 pt/100

76.8% #35

—

+0.4 pt/100

Bucknell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.3 pts/100

Cornell has the ball

OffenseBucknell allowsvs D1 avg

58.5% #7

54.7% #323

+8.5 pt/100

16.0% #139

17.9% #99

-0.3 pt/100

30.2% #193

31.3% #216

+0.2 pt/100

30.2% #304

35.3% #186

-0.3 pt/100

74.1% #124

—

+0.2 pt/100

Cornell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Bucknelloffense vsCornelldefense

Share of shots by zone

Bucknell shoots

39.5

6.2

12.0

42.2

Cornell allows

43.4

4.0

14.5

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#201	60.7%#256	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.2%#265	44.6%#285	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	32.5%#336	41.7%#293	38.0%
Three	30.6%#328	37.5%#349	33.7%

Cornelloffense vsBucknelldefense

Share of shots by zone

Cornell shoots

38.5

2.3

8.1

51.1

Bucknell allows

33.5

6.5

13.6

46.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.8%#77	60.3%#245	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	51.5%#7	45.5%#309	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	43.5%#31	40.7%#268	38.0%
Three	38.3%#14	37.0%#344	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Bucknell

−3.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#310 of 365

Off reb %

27.0%

#295

Def reb %

68.7%

#216

Turnover %

19.0%

#320

Forced TO %

17.9%

#99

FT rate

29.8%

#314

FT allowed

35.3%

#186

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding−0.2

Ball security−1.5

Forcing turnovers+0.8

Foul shots drawn−1.3

Foul shots allowed0.0

Cornell

−2.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#281 of 365

Off reb %

30.2%

#193

Def reb %

69.4%

#187

Turnover %

16.0%

#139

Forced TO %

15.1%

#279

FT rate

30.2%

#304

FT allowed

37.2%

#244

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.1

Defensive rebounding0.0

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed−0.5

Cornell has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.4 (#281 of 365) to Bucknell’s −3.4 (#310).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bucknell2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Achile Spadone	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	34.8	12.4	6.1	1.9	1.9	47.3%	29.7%	4.4	79.2%	23.9%
2	Jayden Williams	G	So	5'10"	33-33	32.6	7.5	2.9	4.0	1.8	39.4%	31.0%	3.5	82.8%	18.7%
22	Amon Dorries	C	Fr	6'11"	33-32	32.5	16.2	4.4	1.4	2.7	57.8%	33.3%	2.5	78.8%	29.2%
3	Aleksander Pachucki	G	So	6'5"	33-10	20.7	5.9	2.8	0.8	0.7	53.9%	35.9%	3.5	69.6%	17.5%
21	Pat Curtin	G	Fr	6'3"	27-19	25.1	12.8	4.3	1.5	1.8	47.8%	26.9%	4.4	80.2%	33.4%
4	Ruot Bijiek	F	Sr	6'9"	12-11	28.8	11.8	5.2	0.8	2.6	44.2%	28.4%	6.2	85.4%	29.2%
1	Jacob Meachem	G	Fr	5'8"	30-0	10.4	1.5	0.5	1.6	1.0	27.4%	25.0%	0.4	77.3%	17.5%
23	Grgur Brcic	C	Jr	6'10"	18-8	16.9	4.3	4.8	0.4	0.7	56.9%	—	0.0	46.2%	16.2%
10	Brandon McCreesh	G	Jr	6'4"	8-8	27.6	7.4	3.1	1.6	0.8	52.9%	37.5%	4.0	62.5%	16.2%
0	Patrick O'Brien	F	Jr	6'8"	21-3	9.8	2.2	1.2	0.1	0.2	39.7%	16.7%	0.9	70.4%	15.1%
5	Josh Fulton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	10.9	2.3	2.4	1.3	1.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.1	85.7%	12.7%
7	Matt Lange	G	So	6'2"	8-0	2.5	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.1	150.0%	100.0%	0.1	25.0%	11.0%
32	Kellen Welch	F	So	6'7"	10-0	1.9	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.0	28.6%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	23.9%
11	Brady Muller	F	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Cornell2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
31	Cooper Noard	G	Sr	6'2"	28-28	27.5	18.2	3.3	2.0	1.6	61.6%	37.6%	7.6	90.3%	31.6%
8	Adam Hinton	G	Sr	6'4"	28-28	24.6	12.5	3.1	1.9	1.3	59.1%	41.5%	4.8	77.6%	26.1%
5	Jacob Beccles	G	Jr	6'3"	28-27	23.4	7.7	2.5	3.1	1.3	52.9%	32.8%	2.2	67.3%	19.8%
22	Jake Fiegen	G	Sr	6'4"	24-17	26.1	17.1	5.1	2.1	1.2	64.9%	41.4%	5.5	77.2%	30.4%
21	Kaspar Sepp	F	Jr	6'7"	28-15	18.8	4.8	5.5	2.6	1.3	50.5%	23.8%	0.8	66.0%	17.2%
24	Josh Baldwin	G	Sr	6'5"	26-13	19.0	7.4	4.1	3.2	1.7	52.2%	33.9%	2.3	70.0%	24.9%
7	Anthony Nimani	G	So	6'4"	22-0	17.3	5.4	1.6	1.9	1.0	65.5%	52.0%	1.1	84.6%	16.4%
23	DJ Nix	F	Sr	6'6"	27-11	12.3	3.5	1.7	1.1	0.7	53.8%	37.3%	1.9	56.3%	17.4%
4	Gioacchino Panzini	F	So	6'5"	26-0	10.8	3.9	2.0	0.6	0.5	77.6%	50.0%	0.9	57.1%	15.9%
14	Corbin Zentner	G	Sr	5'9"	24-1	11.6	3.3	0.9	0.8	0.3	57.8%	38.6%	2.4	66.7%	14.6%
0	DaMaryon Fishburn	G	Jr	6'5"	21-0	8.6	2.5	2.0	1.5	0.7	83.3%	58.3%	0.6	57.1%	14.2%
10	Mateen Rafiq	G	So	6'0"	18-0	9.3	4.3	1.3	1.5	0.3	66.4%	46.3%	2.3	71.4%	20.2%
2	Ian Imegwu	F	Jr	6'9"	15-0	5.7	4.9	1.3	0.9	0.2	69.2%	48.9%	3.0	50.0%	34.4%
3	Jax Abalos	F	Fr	6'8"	12-0	6.4	2.8	0.4	0.3	0.2	53.6%	27.3%	1.8	80.0%	21.7%
55	AJ LaBeau	F	Jr	6'10"	10-0	4.1	0.7	1.2	1.0	0.5	33.3%	0.0%	0.1	33.3%	19.3%
12	Ryan Burbach	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	8.2	2.6	1.6	0.2	0.4	31.6%	15.4%	2.6	100.0%	27.3%
11	Ty Iwanonkiw	F	So	6'9"	3-0	7.7	4.0	1.0	0.7	0.0	66.7%	44.4%	3.0	—	19.2%
13	AJ Rodriguez	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Blake Lecklitner	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Elijah Griffin	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bucknell2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
24	Achile Spadone	G	Sr	6'4"	33-33	34.8	12.4	6.1	1.9	1.9	47.3%	29.7%	4.4	79.2%	23.9%
2	Jayden Williams	G	So	5'10"	33-33	32.6	7.5	2.9	4.0	1.8	39.4%	31.0%	3.5	82.8%	18.7%
22	Amon Dorries	C	Fr	6'11"	33-32	32.5	16.2	4.4	1.4	2.7	57.8%	33.3%	2.5	78.8%	29.2%
3	Aleksander Pachucki	G	So	6'5"	33-10	20.7	5.9	2.8	0.8	0.7	53.9%	35.9%	3.5	69.6%	17.5%
21	Pat Curtin	G	Fr	6'3"	27-19	25.1	12.8	4.3	1.5	1.8	47.8%	26.9%	4.4	80.2%	33.4%
4	Ruot Bijiek	F	Sr	6'9"	12-11	28.8	11.8	5.2	0.8	2.6	44.2%	28.4%	6.2	85.4%	29.2%
1	Jacob Meachem	G	Fr	5'8"	30-0	10.4	1.5	0.5	1.6	1.0	27.4%	25.0%	0.4	77.3%	17.5%
23	Grgur Brcic	C	Jr	6'10"	18-8	16.9	4.3	4.8	0.4	0.7	56.9%	—	0.0	46.2%	16.2%
10	Brandon McCreesh	G	Jr	6'4"	8-8	27.6	7.4	3.1	1.6	0.8	52.9%	37.5%	4.0	62.5%	16.2%
0	Patrick O'Brien	F	Jr	6'8"	21-3	9.8	2.2	1.2	0.1	0.2	39.7%	16.7%	0.9	70.4%	15.1%
5	Josh Fulton	G	Sr	6'6"	8-0	10.9	2.3	2.4	1.3	1.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.1	85.7%	12.7%
7	Matt Lange	G	So	6'2"	8-0	2.5	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.1	150.0%	100.0%	0.1	25.0%	11.0%
32	Kellen Welch	F	So	6'7"	10-0	1.9	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.0	28.6%	0.0%	0.2	50.0%	23.9%
11	Brady Muller	F	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Bucknell

Against the spread

Season

14-19

Home

5-9

Road

7-10

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −3.1

Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-20-1

Home

5-8-1

Road

7-10

Last 10

4-5-1

avg vs total −0.8

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	NavyAdjEM #104	A	L 69–74	+14.5	W+9.5	132.5	O143	110.1	118.1	62.7
Mar 3	ArmyAdjEM #336	H	W 65–55	−2.0	W+8.0	144.0	U120	97.2	82.2	66.9
Feb 28	LehighAdjEM #273	A	L 79–89	+4.5	L−5.5	139.5	O168	116.3	131.1	67.9
Feb 25	ArmyAdjEM #336	A	W 75–73	+3.5	W+5.5	142.5	O148	103.6	100.8	72.4
Feb 22	Holy CrossAdjEM #325	H	L 63–72	−2.5	L−11.5	141.5	U135	95.7	109.4	65.8
Feb 18	AmericanAdjEM #234	H	L 57–75	+3.0	L−15.0	140.5	U132	88.1	115.9	64.7
Feb 14	Boston UAdjEM #237	A	L 69–82	+5.5	L−7.5	137.0	O151	105.6	125.5	65.3
Feb 9	NavyAdjEM #104	H	L 60–76	+6.5	L−9.5	136.0	P136	86.7	109.9	69.2
Feb 7	ColgateAdjEM #223	H	L 59–78	+5.0	L−14.0	141.5	U137	80.4	106.3	73.4
Feb 4	AmericanAdjEM #234	A	W 60–59	+8.0	W+9.0	142.0	U119	101.4	99.7	59.2

Cornell

Against the spread

Season

11-15

Home

2-7

Road

9-7

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-12

Home

4-5

Road

9-7

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −4.6

Over 3 straightOver in 2 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	YaleAdjEM #57	N	L 76–88	+3.5	L−8.5	163.5	O164	125.2	144.9	60.7
Mar 7	DartmouthAdjEM #254	A	W 111–90	−4.5	W+16.5	166.0	O201	142.5	115.5	77.9
Feb 28	BrownAdjEM #275	H	W 86–80	−9.5	L−3.5	157.5	O166	119.1	110.7	72.2
Feb 27	YaleAdjEM #57	H	W 72–69	+4.0	W+7.0	164.0	U141	112.1	107.4	64.3
Feb 21	HarvardAdjEM #133	H	L 54–73	−5.5	L−24.5	155.0	U127	89.9	121.5	60.1
Feb 14	PennAdjEM #162	A	L 76–82	−3.0	L−9.0	170.0	U158	99.7	107.6	76.2
Feb 13	PrincetonAdjEM #251	A	W 89–65	−3.5	W+20.5	154.5	U154	140.6	102.7	63.3
Feb 7	ColumbiaAdjEM #166	A	W 88–67	−1.0	W+20.0	170.5	U155	133.9	101.9	65.7
Jan 31	PennAdjEM #162	H	L 81–91	−7.0	L−17.0	174.5	U172	112.3	126.1	72.1
Jan 30	PrincetonAdjEM #251	H	W 87–64	−7.0	W+16.0	159.5	U151	141.5	104.1	61.5

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BucknellCornell

Efficiency

101.2

116.2

111.7

114.3

68.1

70.9

—

Shooting

48.5%

58.5%

50.4%

59.7%

30.6%

38.3%

76.8%

74.1%

29.8%

30.2%

Ball control & glass

19.0%

16.0%

17.9%

15.1%

27.0%

30.2%

31.3%

30.6%

11.1%

9.1%

11.5%

9.6%

Style

42.7%

51.6%

43.4%

38.9%

9.9%

14.4%

54.0%

66.7%

24.0%

41.9%

Roster

2.30

3.37

6'4.5"

6'3.9"

92.5%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Bucknell

Returning minutes: 92.5%Returning production: 96.3%

Lost

Quin Berger 15.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg · transferred to Miami

Added

Brady Muller no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 93% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Cornell

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Cornell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Nov 30	2025-26	Cornell 101 – 72 Bucknell

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.