Alcorn State Braves vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs basketball preview & prediction
Tue, Nov 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Thomas Assembly Center, Ruston, LA
Non-conferenceESPN+Thomas Assembly Center, Ruston, LA
Alcorn St
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #358
@
Louisiana Tech
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #228
Tue, Nov 24 · 7:30 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 70.1, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Alcorn St is the faster team (74.0, #86 of 365) and Louisiana Tech the slower (70.6, #187). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
70.1
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
72.2#85
Alcorn St
68.5#307
Louisiana Tech
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Louisiana Tech has the ball+8.7
Alcorn St has the ball+0.9
Louisiana Tech has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 45.9% #258 · ALCN allows 62.4% #337+3.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.1% #107 · ALCN allows 43.6% #335+3.6
✓Gets to the lineFTR 44.1% #95 · ALCN allows 62.4% #345 · FT 67.3% #226+1.4
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 22.7% #307 · ALCN forces 14.2% #289 · ~13 turnovers0.0
Alcorn St has the ball
✓Wins second chancesOR% 35.1% #107 · LT allows 40.5% #318+2.9
✗Coughs it upTO% 25.0% #332 · LT forces 14.9% #275 · ~14 turnovers−1.5
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 35.0% #200 · LT allows 39.5% #210 · FT 58.5% #327−0.7
✓Shoots it welleFG% 50.0% #176 · LT allows 50.8% #183+0.1
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootAlcorn Stoffense vsLouisiana Techdefense
Share of shots by zone
Alcorn St shoots
20.4
10.8
23.7
45.2
Louisiana Tech allows
46.3
3.2
12.6
37.9
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 68.4%#64 | 61.4%#217 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 30.0%#228 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.5%#84 | 33.3%#155 | 34.7% |
| Three | 35.8%#117 | 28.8%#108 | 32.5% |
Louisiana Techoffense vsAlcorn Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Louisiana Tech shoots
39.0
7.8
14.3
39.0
Alcorn St allows
42.7
10.4
12.5
34.4
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.0%#146 | 82.9%#355 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#183 | 30.0%#111 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.4%#151 | 41.7%#235 | 34.7% |
| Three | 26.3%#274 | 33.3%#185 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineAlcorn St
−17.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#355 of 365
Off reb %
35.1%
#107
Def reb %
56.4%
#335
Turnover %
25.0%
#332
Forced TO %
14.2%
#289
FT rate
35.0%
#200
FT allowed
62.4%
#345
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding−4.0
Ball security−4.8
Forcing turnovers−2.8
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed−6.4
Louisiana Tech
−5.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#260 of 365
Off reb %
35.1%
#107
Def reb %
59.5%
#318
Turnover %
22.7%
#307
Forced TO %
14.9%
#275
FT rate
44.1%
#95
FT allowed
39.5%
#210
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.2
Defensive rebounding−3.0
Ball security−3.1
Forcing turnovers−2.3
Foul shots drawn+1.8
Foul shots allowed−0.4
Louisiana Tech has more extra scoring chances per game: −5.8 (#260 of 365) to Alcorn St’s −17.3 (#355).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notAlcorn St2026-27 numbers · last game: Howard, Nov 5
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-2 | 26.0 | 28 | — | Started last | 9.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 44.4% | 4.5 | — | 20.9% | |
| 3 | G | — | — | 2-2 | 24.0 | 24 | — | Started last | 12.0 | 1.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 95.0% | 71.4% | 3.5 | 50.0% | 25.7% | |
| 11 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 21.0 | 23 | — | Bench | 9.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 53.8% | 66.7% | 1.5 | 55.6% | 27.5% | |
| 2 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 19.5 | 15 | — | Bench | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 50.0% | 20.0% | 2.5 | 87.5% | 27.5% | |
| 1 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 1-1 | 33.0 | 33 | — | Started last | 27.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 44.4% | 30.8% | 13.0 | 75.0% | 54.7% | |
| 35 | C | So | 6'11" | 2-0 | 15.5 | 17 | — | Bench | 1.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 5.2% | |
| 13 | F | Jr | 6'7" | 2-2 | 14.0 | 19 | — | Started last | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 31.3% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 21.3% | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-1 | 12.5 | 11 | — | Bench | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 23.8% | |
| 15 | C | Sr | 7'1" | 2-2 | 11.0 | 9 | — | Started last | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 80.0% | — | 0.0 | 100.0% | 20.9% | |
| 23 | G | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 11.0 | 14 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 13.4% | |
| 6 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 1 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 50.0% | 13.3% | |
| 10 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 2-0 | 7.5 | — | — | Active | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 10.8% | |
| 5 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 6.0 | — | — | Active | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 22.4% | |
| 8 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 11.0 | — | — | Missed last | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 2.0 | — | 14.6% | |
| 12 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 4.0 | — | — | Missed last | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 26.8% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesAlcorn St
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −6.0
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +18.0
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Howard | H | L 83–94 | +9.5 | L−1.5 | 149.5 | O177 | 114.5 | 129.6 | 72.5 |
| Nov 2 | Ole Miss | A | L 58–99 | +30.5 | L−10.5 | 148.5 | O157 | 76.8 | 131.0 | 75.6 |
| Mar 10 | Prairie View | N | L 56–65 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 142.5 | U121 | 84.2 | 97.7 | 66.5 |
| Mar 9 | Alabama St | N | W 77–65 | +7.5 | W+19.5 | 142.0 | P142 | 109.4 | 92.4 | 70.4 |
| Mar 5 | AR-Pine Bluff | H | L 48–83 | +1.0 | L−34.0 | 144.0 | U131 | 64.5 | 111.6 | 74.4 |
| Mar 3 | Miss Valley St | H | W 67–64 | −9.5 | L−6.5 | 139.0 | U131 | 103.7 | 99.1 | 64.6 |
| Feb 28 | Prairie View | A | L 51–72 | +4.5 | L−16.5 | 150.0 | U123 | 72.5 | 102.3 | 70.4 |
| Feb 26 | Texas Southern | A | L 87–92 OT | +6.5 | W+1.5 | 145.0 | O179 | 109.3 | 115.6 | 79.6 |
| Feb 21 | Jackson St | H | W 83–65 | −1.0 | W+17.0 | 149.0 | U148 | 115.8 | 90.7 | 71.7 |
| Feb 16 | Florida A&M | H | L 78–86 | +1.5 | L−6.5 | 137.0 | O164 | 109.0 | 120.1 | 71.6 |
Louisiana Tech
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +2.2
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total +3.8
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | LSU | A | L 50–90 | +29.5 | L−10.5 | 147.5 | U140 | 68.1 | 122.6 | 73.4 |
| Nov 5 | Arkansas Monticello Boll Weevils | H | W 76–17 | — | — | — | — | 125.1 | 28.0 | 60.8 |
| Nov 2 | Kent State | H | W 85–75 | +5.0 | W+15.0 | 145.0 | O160 | 125.3 | 110.5 | 67.8 |
| Mar 14 | Kennesaw St | N | L 60–71 | −1.0 | L−12.0 | 142.0 | U131 | 93.1 | 110.1 | 64.5 |
| Mar 13 | Missouri St | N | W 69–66 | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 135.0 | P135 | 121.4 | 116.1 | 56.8 |
| Mar 12 | MTSU | N | W 80–69 | +2.0 | W+13.0 | 133.5 | O149 | 120.6 | 104.0 | 66.3 |
| Mar 7 | Delaware | A | W 81–38 | −2.0 | W+41.0 | 132.5 | U119 | 128.5 | 60.3 | 63.0 |
| Mar 5 | Liberty | A | W 76–71 | +8.5 | W+13.5 | 139.0 | O147 | 127.1 | 118.8 | 59.8 |
| Feb 28 | FIU | H | L 76–84 | −2.0 | L−10.0 | 146.0 | O160 | 109.2 | 120.7 | 69.6 |
| Feb 26 | Missouri St | H | W 72–70 | −2.5 | L−0.5 | 137.0 | O142 | 108.4 | 105.4 | 66.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeAlcorn StLouisiana Tech
Efficiency
97.8
101.5
116.1
105.6
72.2
68.5
6.1
8.5
Shooting
50.0%
45.9%
46.9%
49.3%
35.8%
26.3%
58.5%
67.3%
35.0%
44.1%
Ball control & glass
25.0%
22.7%
14.2%
14.9%
35.1%
35.1%
43.6%
40.5%
11.5%
15.6%
14.1%
6.8%
Style
45.3%
34.2%
28.4%
45.9%
14.2%
13.3%
67.3%
50.0%
50.7%
42.7%
Roster
2.65
2.58
6'6.5"
6'4.4"
0.0%
10.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputAlcorn St
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Nick Woodard 28.7 mpg, 8.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shane Lancaster 28.6 mpg, 10.8 ppg · transferred to NC A&T
- Jameel Morris 27.7 mpg, 10.5 ppg · transferred to Bethune
- Tycen McDaniels 27.3 mpg, 12.0 ppg · transferred to UT Arlington
- Davian Williams 26.4 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to Prairie View
- Omari Hamilton 21.4 mpg, 7.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Ma'Kye Taylor from UAlbany · 13.3 mpg, 3.3 ppg last season
- Christian Richardson from Omaha · 12.8 mpg, 6.1 ppg last season
- Trey Thomas from S Indiana · 3.0 mpg, 1.6 ppg last season
- Jayan Walker from Indiana St · 2.4 mpg, 0.8 ppg last season
- Braylhan Thomas from Winthrop · 1.5 mpg, 0.9 ppg last season
- Jahseem Felton from Seton Hall · 1.3 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Louisiana Tech
Returning minutes: 10.0%Returning production: 7.1%
Lost
- AJ Bates 33.4 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Utah State
- DJ Dudley 30.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg · transferred to New Mexico St
- Avery Thomas II 24.4 mpg, 8.8 ppg · transferred to Kennesaw St
- Kaden Cooper 22.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg · transferred to East Carolina
- Scooter Williams 17.4 mpg, 8.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Will Allen 15.4 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Ethan Blackmon new to D1 · 23.0 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
- Jay Tyler no D1 minutes last season
- Linwood Rowe no D1 minutes last season
- Kyran Tilley no D1 minutes last season
- Izuchukwu Emelife no D1 minutes last season
- James Sanderson no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 10% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 29 | 2025-26 | Alcorn St 58 – 83 Louisiana Tech |
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
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