CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMcKenzie Arena, Chattanooga, TN
Delaware St
Efficiency #358
2025-26: 8-23 · 3-13 conf
@
Chattanooga
Efficiency #289
2025-26: 13-19 · 7-12 conf
Tue, Nov 24 · 7:00 PM ET
64.6
win 19%
Projected
74.9
win 81%
No line posted yet.
Model: UTC −10.3 · total 139.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Chattanooga 68.1, Delaware St 67.1 → 66.9 possessions
−3.2
Chattanooga offense vs Delaware St defense
+0.5
Delaware St offense vs Chattanooga defense
−6.0
Projected total
139.5
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Chattanooga offense vs Delaware St defense
+0.5
Delaware St offense vs Chattanooga defense
+6.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Chattanooga by 10.3
10.3
Delaware St side ◂▸ Chattanooga side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Chattanooga.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Chattanooga is the faster team (67.6, #218 of 365) and Delaware St the slower (66.1, #293). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
66.9
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.5
model
Projected team totals
64.6 / 74.9
Delaware St / Chattanooga
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.1#279
Delaware St
68.1#204
Chattanooga

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageDelaware St
Where Delaware St struggles: shooting
Delaware St shoots an effective 42.9% (#364); Chattanooga allows 51.7% (#195). Expect about 46.7%, 4.6 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -6.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageChattanooga
Where Chattanooga scores: shooting
Chattanooga shoots an effective 54.2% (#60); Delaware St allows 52.9% (#265). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
GlassChattanooga
Chattanooga gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 25.1% is worth roughly -3.2 points per 100 possessions against Chattanooga's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Delaware St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Delaware St at about 34.1% of its shots from three, Chattanooga about 44.2%.
ClashDelaware St
Style clash: 3-point volume
Delaware St rarely shoots threes (28.9% of its shots); Chattanooga lets opponents take 44.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 34.1% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashChattanooga
Style clash: 3-point volume
Chattanooga takes 49.2% of its shots from three; Delaware St runs teams off the line (34.7% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 44.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Delaware St has the ball
OffenseChattanooga allowsvs D1 avg
42.9% #364
51.7% #195
-6.6 pt/100
19.9% #347
13.2% #350
+0.6 pt/100
27.7% #277
31.7% #240
-0.8 pt/100
34.1% #204
42.6% #335
+0.5 pt/100
68.9% #301
—
-0.3 pt/100
Delaware St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.5 pts/100
Chattanooga has the ball
OffenseDelaware St allowsvs D1 avg
54.2% #60
52.9% #265
+3.6 pt/100
14.4% #38
19.5% #33
-0.5 pt/100
21.8% #358
32.0% #257
-3.2 pt/100
29.7% #319
40.5% #307
+0.1 pt/100
77.4% #26
—
+0.4 pt/100
Chattanooga net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Delaware Stoffense vsChattanoogadefense
Share of shots by zone
Delaware St shoots
Chattanooga allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim50.7%#35558.7%#17358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.0%#33242.9%#24739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.5%#27534.6%#6338.0%
Three28.4%#36134.2%#19533.7%
Chattanoogaoffense vsDelaware Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Chattanooga shoots
Delaware St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.8%#7863.0%#32558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)52.6%#435.4%#7139.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)47.8%#232.4%#1938.0%
Three35.0%#11633.0%#12333.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Delaware St
−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#306 of 365
Off reb %
27.7%
#277
Def reb %
68.0%
#257
Turnover %
19.9%
#347
Forced TO %
19.5%
#33
FT rate
34.1%
#204
FT allowed
40.5%
#307
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−2.1
Forcing turnovers+1.9
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed−1.4
Chattanooga
−7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#359 of 365
Off reb %
21.8%
#358
Def reb %
68.3%
#240
Turnover %
14.4%
#38
Forced TO %
13.2%
#350
FT rate
29.7%
#319
FT allowed
42.6%
#335
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.8
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security+1.6
Forcing turnovers−2.4
Foul shots drawn−1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.9

Delaware St has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.1 (#306 of 365) to Chattanooga’s −7.2 (#359).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Delaware St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
1Ponce JamesGSo5'11"27-2732.813.62.93.42.144.4%32.8%4.584.7%29.4%
2Corey PerkinsGSr6'2"28-2027.37.32.52.92.343.4%32.5%1.467.6%21.8%
3Miles WebbFSr6'8"26-2027.39.55.90.71.658.4%40.9%0.848.1%21.8%
42Bessanty SaragbaFSr6'9"25-1722.13.23.20.20.745.2%—0.056.0%11.1%
0Rahmir MooreGSr6'3"26-2221.26.62.81.11.043.8%31.3%2.675.8%21.4%
4Zion BetheaGSr6'4"29-1415.35.42.20.61.040.0%26.8%2.866.7%27.9%
37Ademar SantosFJr6'8"22-1220.07.12.40.51.143.9%30.3%3.076.0%25.8%
8Jalen St ClairGFr6'1"25-014.33.60.91.21.036.3%17.9%1.161.1%22.9%
10Cyril ObasogieCJr6'11"24-1114.82.84.00.30.543.5%—0.043.8%15.4%
35Muazibini AdamuCJr6'10"25-612.91.93.20.30.842.9%—0.033.3%14.0%
22Dean ShepherdGJr6'3"27-311.54.01.30.40.437.5%21.7%0.976.9%22.3%
13Kareem WatsonFSo6'8"19-211.13.81.90.31.039.8%0.0%0.170.0%30.5%
11Camian ShellGSr5'10"7-124.08.01.91.92.450.0%50.0%1.166.7%24.9%
5John ClemmonsGSo6'6"23-07.02.71.20.00.530.2%17.2%1.377.8%31.6%
—Omar StephenFSr—7-02.11.30.30.00.050.0%50.0%0.366.7%32.5%
—Theodore Pendergrass IIIGSo6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Delaware StChattanooga
Efficiency
94.5
106.9
110.7
113.5
67.1
68.1
—
—
Shooting
42.9%
54.2%
43.1%
55.8%
28.4%
35.0%
68.9%
77.4%
34.1%
29.7%
Ball control & glass
19.9%
14.4%
19.5%
13.2%
27.7%
21.8%
32.0%
31.7%
9.7%
8.3%
11.0%
7.7%
Style
28.9%
49.2%
41.6%
36.2%
17.6%
12.7%
45.8%
55.6%
35.2%
39.4%
Roster
3.20
2.97
6'4.6"
6'3.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Delaware St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Delaware St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Chattanooga
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Chattanooga's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.