Tarleton State Texans vs Weber State Wildcats basketball preview & prediction
Tue, Nov 24 · 7:00 PM ET · Dee Events Center, Ogden, UT
Non-conferenceESPN+Dee Events Center, Ogden, UT
Tarleton St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #224
@
Weber St
0-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #281
Tue, Nov 24 · 7:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 75.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Weber St is the faster team (79.4, #19 of 365) and Tarleton St the slower (70.7, #185). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
75.6
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.5#121
Tarleton St
74.6#19
Weber St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Weber St has the ball+0.1
Tarleton St has the ball+15.8
Weber St has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 44.2% #277 · TAR allows 47.7% #123−5.2
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 13.9% #61 · TAR forces 17.6% #192 · ~12 turnovers+2.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 29.6% #220 · TAR allows 45.0% #342+2.4
✓Gets to the lineFTR 26.5% #295 · TAR allows 60.0% #340 · FT 61.5% #293+0.2
Tarleton St has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 61.5% #26 · WEB allows 63.5% #344+14.3
✓Gets to the lineFTR 75.0% #1 · WEB allows 51.6% #312 · FT 66.7% #229+2.3
✗Few second chancesOR% 33.3% #135 · WEB allows 24.2% #52−1.1
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 22.6% #306 · WEB forces 13.9% #294 · ~14 turnovers+0.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootTarleton Stoffense vsWeber Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Tarleton St shoots
44.2
0.0
7.7
48.1
Weber St allows
38.9
10.2
12.0
38.9
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 69.6%#57 | 69.0%#295 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | — | 36.4%#174 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 25.0%#245 | 38.5%#202 | 34.7% |
| Three | 40.0%#56 | 48.9%#351 | 32.5% |
Weber Stoffense vsTarleton Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Weber St shoots
26.4
11.2
17.6
44.8
Tarleton St allows
46.2
6.2
4.6
43.1
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 57.6%#186 | 33.3%#3 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 42.9%#141 | 75.0%#336 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.4%#151 | 0.0%#1 | 34.7% |
| Three | 28.1%#245 | 42.9%#324 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineTarleton St
−3.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#226 of 365
Off reb %
33.3%
#135
Def reb %
55.0%
#342
Turnover %
22.6%
#306
Forced TO %
17.6%
#192
FT rate
75.0%
#1
FT allowed
60.0%
#340
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−4.5
Ball security−3.1
Forcing turnovers−0.3
Foul shots drawn+9.8
Foul shots allowed−5.7
Weber St
−4.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#243 of 365
Off reb %
29.6%
#220
Def reb %
75.8%
#52
Turnover %
13.9%
#61
Forced TO %
13.9%
#294
FT rate
26.5%
#295
FT allowed
51.6%
#312
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+2.5
Ball security+3.1
Forcing turnovers−3.0
Foul shots drawn−2.8
Foul shots allowed−3.6
Tarleton St has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.2 (#226 of 365) to Weber St’s −4.4 (#243).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notTarleton St2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | G | So | 6'2" | 2-2 | 34.5 | 16.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 57.1% | 36.4% | 5.5 | 61.5% | 24.2% | Active | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 6'7" | 2-2 | 33.0 | 16.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 61.1% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 55.0% | 26.4% | Active | |
| 2 | G | Sr | 6'5" | 2-2 | 30.0 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 58.8% | 66.7% | 3.0 | 75.0% | 26.7% | Active | |
| 13 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 22.5 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 75.0% | 57.1% | 3.5 | — | 13.5% | Active | |
| 11 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 20.5 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 80.0% | 50.0% | 2.0 | 100.0% | 22.7% | Active | |
| 7 | G | Sr | 6'7" | 2-0 | 18.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 15.6% | Active | |
| 8 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-0 | 17.5 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 42.5% | 14.3% | 3.5 | — | 35.9% | Active | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 32.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 12.2% | Active | |
| 35 | F | So | 6'8" | 2-0 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 83.3% | 22.0% | Active | |
| 44 | F | Sr | 6'9" | 1-0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 75.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 31.4% | Active | |
| 6 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | Missed last | |
| 15 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | Missed last |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesTarleton St
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +1.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +38.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | UT Dallas Comets | H | W 76–57 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 6 | San Diego | A | L 90–96 OT | +7.5 | W+1.5 | 148.0 | O186 | 113.2 | 120.7 | 79.5 |
| Nov 2 | Cameron Aggies | H | W 86–60 | — | — | — | — | 113.0 | 78.9 | 76.1 |
| Mar 11 | Abilene Chrstn | N | L 78–84 | +1.0 | L−5.0 | 135.0 | O162 | 102.0 | 109.8 | 76.5 |
| Mar 5 | UT Arlington | H | L 60–65 | −1.0 | L−6.0 | 136.0 | U125 | 99.2 | 107.4 | 60.5 |
| Feb 28 | CA Baptist | A | L 67–82 | +7.5 | L−7.5 | 139.0 | O149 | 100.2 | 122.7 | 66.8 |
| Feb 26 | Utah Valley | A | L 72–79 | +17.0 | W+10.0 | 141.5 | O151 | 103.7 | 113.8 | 69.4 |
| Feb 21 | Utah Tech | H | L 72–80 | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 141.0 | O152 | 111.1 | 123.4 | 64.8 |
| Feb 19 | Southern Utah | H | W 78–74 | −5.0 | L−1.0 | 145.0 | O152 | 116.5 | 110.5 | 67.0 |
| Feb 16 | Abilene Chrstn | H | W 65–62 OT | +1.0 | W+4.0 | 133.5 | U127 | 85.8 | 81.8 | 75.8 |
Weber St
Against the spread
Season
0-2
Home
0-1
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-2
avg cover −11.8
Missed the spread 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +20.0
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Utah Valley | H | L 93–101 | +7.5 | L−0.5 | 156.5 | O194 | 118.0 | 128.2 | 78.8 |
| Nov 2 | Oregon St | A | L 61–102 | +18.0 | L−23.0 | 160.5 | O163 | 76.3 | 127.6 | 79.9 |
| Mar 9 | E Washington | N | L 79–84 | +3.5 | L−1.5 | 154.5 | O163 | 113.9 | 121.1 | 69.3 |
| Mar 2 | Portland St | A | L 60–84 | +5.0 | L−19.0 | 144.5 | U144 | 87.0 | 121.8 | 68.9 |
| Feb 28 | Idaho St | A | W 83–73 | +2.0 | W+12.0 | 153.0 | O156 | 122.0 | 107.3 | 68.1 |
| Feb 21 | Montana | H | W 92–72 | −2.5 | W+17.5 | 152.0 | O164 | 136.2 | 106.6 | 67.5 |
| Feb 19 | Montana St | H | W 82–79 OT | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 148.0 | O161 | 112.7 | 108.5 | 72.8 |
| Feb 14 | E Washington | A | L 66–84 | +3.0 | L−15.0 | 155.0 | U150 | 96.1 | 122.3 | 68.7 |
| Feb 12 | Idaho | A | W 83–72 | +5.5 | W+16.5 | 154.0 | O155 | 129.1 | 112.0 | 64.3 |
| Feb 7 | N Arizona | H | W 72–53 | −7.0 | W+12.0 | 151.0 | U125 | 122.6 | 90.3 | 58.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeTarleton StWeber St
Efficiency
103.8
105.3
107.6
112.3
71.5
74.6
-4.9
6.8
Shooting
61.5%
44.2%
63.0%
45.8%
40.0%
28.1%
66.7%
61.5%
75.0%
26.5%
Ball control & glass
22.6%
13.9%
17.6%
13.9%
33.3%
29.6%
45.0%
24.2%
7.5%
11.3%
7.4%
15.7%
Style
48.1%
43.5%
35.6%
39.0%
10.0%
11.7%
63.0%
53.6%
33.9%
40.3%
Roster
3.29
2.10
6'5.1"
6'4.9"
16.2%
9.2%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputTarleton St
Returning minutes: 16.4%Returning production: 13.6%
Lost
- Jordan Mizell 27.6 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Texas A&M-CC
- Kaia Isaac 25.3 mpg, 5.6 ppg · transferred to Portland
- Freddy Hicks 22.0 mpg, 7.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Dior Johnson 16.4 mpg, 15.0 ppg · transferred to UCF
- Ocypher Owens 16.1 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cam McDowell 15.7 mpg, 9.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Caleb Blackwell from UTEP · 27.5 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
- Isaac Harrell from Elon · 25.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg last season
- Franck Emmou from Texas St · 21.8 mpg, 7.0 ppg last season
- TJ Cope from LSU N Orleans · 20.7 mpg, 8.0 ppg last season
- JaVar Daniel from West Georgia · 18.6 mpg, 7.2 ppg last season
- Josh Hayes from Utah · 13.3 mpg, 2.8 ppg last season
Returns 16% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Weber St
Returning minutes: 9.2%Returning production: 6.6%
Lost
- Tijan Saine Jr. 32.6 mpg, 17.5 ppg · transferred to FIU
- Malek Gomma 25.1 mpg, 8.0 ppg · transferred to Utah
- Viljami Vartiainen 24.3 mpg, 10.4 ppg · transferred to Santa Barbara
- Nigel Burris 23.2 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Edwin Suarez Jr. 20.9 mpg, 8.9 ppg · transferred to Temple
- Trevor Hennig 19.8 mpg, 8.2 ppg · transferred to ETSU
Added
- Augustine Ekwe from New Mexico St · 7.5 mpg, 2.0 ppg last season
- Brock Felder from Seattle U · 5.9 mpg, 2.5 ppg last season
- Alvin Jackson III no D1 minutes last season
- Hunter Hansen no D1 minutes last season
- Dylan Warlick no D1 minutes last season
- Sir Marius Jones no D1 minutes last season
Returns 9% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (4 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Tue, Nov 24
- Wright St vs St Bonaventure · 10:00 AM ET
- Ohio vs New Mexico St · 11:00 AM ET
- SE Louisiana vs N Colorado · 12:30 PM ET
- Belmont vs Akron · 12:30 PM ET
- Southern Utah at FIU · 1:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood vs New Haven · 1:00 PM ET
- Oklahoma vs Pitt · 1:30 PM ET
- Rice vs UIC · 1:30 PM ET
- Oregon St vs San Francisco · 2:00 PM ET
- Tennessee vs Maryland · 3:00 PM ET
- Miami vs TCU · 3:00 PM ET
- North Dakota vs Detroit Mercy · 3:00 PM ET
- App State vs Yale · 3:00 PM ET
- Long Beach St vs Arkansas St · 3:30 PM ET
- Air Force vs Army · 4:00 PM ET
- Tulsa vs Illinois St · 4:30 PM ET
- Creighton vs Michigan · 5:30 PM ET
- San Diego St vs Iowa State · 5:30 PM ET
- Wyoming vs Kent State · 5:30 PM ET
- DePaul vs Purdue · 6:00 PM ET
- E Michigan vs Kennesaw St · 6:00 PM ET
- Queens at Wofford · 6:00 PM ET
- Mercer at FAU · 6:00 PM ET
- S Indiana at VMI · 6:00 PM ET
- Sacred Heart at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Elon at Furman · 6:30 PM ET
- Robert Morris vs Lamar · 6:30 PM ET
- Milwaukee at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at Bowling Green · 7:00 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Charleston So at James Madison · 7:00 PM ET
- Nevada vs Santa Clara · 7:00 PM ET
- Jacksonville at Indiana · 7:00 PM ET
- Vanderbilt at Ohio State · 7:00 PM ET
- Stetson at South Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Samford at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Harvard · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
- UMBC at Iowa · 7:00 PM ET
- Campbell at Coastal · 7:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Seton Hall · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Morgan St · 7:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at Chattanooga · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Loyola MD · 7:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Marist · 7:00 PM ET
- Hampton at Old Dominion · 7:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Tennessee Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Hou Christian at UL Monroe · 7:30 PM ET
- High Point vs Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Purdue FW at SE Missouri · 7:30 PM ET
- C Michigan at Notre Dame · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Tech vs Louisville · 8:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at Auburn · 8:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Kansas City · 8:00 PM ET
- Drexel at Penn · 8:00 PM ET
- Bucknell at Cornell · 8:00 PM ET
- Alabama A&M at North Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- Oral Roberts at UT Arlington · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at South Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- Charleston vs UTEP · 8:30 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at Florida St · 9:00 PM ET
- Evansville at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Santa Barbara · 9:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Washington St · 9:00 PM ET
- Grand Canyon vs Saint Louis · 9:30 PM ET
- Baylor vs Alabama · 10:00 PM ET
- Oregon vs St John's · 10:30 PM ET
- Stanford vs Colorado · 11:59 PM ET
- Gonzaga vs Kansas St · 12:30 AM ET
- Bellarmine vs GA Southern · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.