UNC Greensboro Spartans vs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos basketball preview & prediction
Tue, Nov 24 · 9:00 PM ET · The Thunderdome, Santa Barbara, CA
Non-conferenceESPN+The Thunderdome, Santa Barbara, CA
UNC Greensboro
1-2 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #279
@
Santa Barbara
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #115
Tue, Nov 24 · 9:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, UNC Greensboro is the faster team (65.7, #319 of 365) and Santa Barbara the slower (64.1, #337). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
65.7
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.8#299
UNC Greensboro
67.4#345
Santa Barbara
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Santa Barbara has the ball+17.7
UNC Greensboro has the ball−2.3
Santa Barbara has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 67.2% #3 · UNCG allows 50.0% #163+9.0
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 9.4% #2 · UNCG forces 12.2% #328 · ~6 turnovers+7.2
✓Wins second chancesOR% 29.0% #229 · UNCG allows 43.9% #337+1.7
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 31.0% #239 · UNCG allows 41.9% #231 · FT 66.7% #229−0.2
UNC Greensboro has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 27.9% #250 · UCSB allows 10.3% #1−5.1
✓Shoots it welleFG% 49.1% #194 · UCSB allows 57.1% #298+2.7
✓Gets to the lineFTR 20.5% #340 · UCSB allows 32.7% #135 · FT 91.7% #2+0.4
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.8% #242 · UCSB forces 17.2% #206 · ~12 turnovers−0.2
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootUNC Greensborooffense vsSanta Barbaradefense
Share of shots by zone
UNC Greensboro shoots
28.6
3.8
15.2
52.4
Santa Barbara allows
33.3
2.8
8.3
55.6
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 53.3%#240 | 50.0%#75 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 0.0%#1 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 43.8%#92 | 0.0%#1 | 34.7% |
| Three | 31.7%#192 | 45.5%#344 | 32.5% |
Santa Barbaraoffense vsUNC Greensborodefense
Share of shots by zone
Santa Barbara shoots
37.5
2.5
12.5
47.5
UNC Greensboro allows
37.4
6.5
19.6
36.4
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 46.7%#305 | 60.0%#195 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 42.9%#219 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.0%#117 | 42.9%#240 | 34.7% |
| Three | 62.1%#1 | 25.6%#56 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineUNC Greensboro
−16.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#351 of 365
Off reb %
27.9%
#250
Def reb %
56.1%
#337
Turnover %
19.8%
#242
Forced TO %
12.2%
#328
FT rate
20.5%
#340
FT allowed
41.9%
#231
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding−4.1
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−4.2
Foul shots drawn−4.4
Foul shots allowed−1.0
Santa Barbara
+11.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#37 of 365
Off reb %
29.0%
#229
Def reb %
89.7%
#1
Turnover %
9.4%
#2
Forced TO %
17.2%
#206
FT rate
31.0%
#239
FT allowed
32.7%
#135
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+7.1
Ball security+6.3
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+1.4
Santa Barbara has more extra scoring chances per game: +11.6 (#37 of 365) to UNC Greensboro’s −16.0 (#351).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notUNC Greensboro2026-27 numbers · last game: UIC, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 32.7 | 37 | — | Started last | 14.0 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 47.4% | 30.8% | 8.7 | 100.0% | 26.6% | |
| 0 | G | Fr | 5'9" | 3-3 | 32.3 | 33 | — | Started last | 13.3 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 62.5% | 20.0% | 1.7 | 71.4% | 22.4% | |
| 14 | G | So | 6'4" | 3-3 | 31.0 | 33 | — | Started last | 15.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 76.9% | 50.0% | 6.7 | 100.0% | 20.4% | |
| 6 | G | Jr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 25.0 | 31 | — | Started last | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 53.1% | 33.3% | 4.0 | 66.7% | 28.2% | |
| 11 | F | Jr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 22.3 | 26 | — | Bench | 8.3 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 45.5% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 62.5% | 26.2% | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-0 | 17.0 | 10 | — | Bench | 5.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 45.5% | 25.0% | 2.7 | 100.0% | 17.3% | |
| 24 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 3-0 | 17.0 | 15 | — | Bench | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 37.5% | 14.3% | 2.3 | 100.0% | 17.5% | |
| 33 | F | Sr | 6'10" | 3-3 | 16.7 | 15 | — | Started last | 4.0 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 57.1% | 17.3% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 9.0 | — | — | Missed last | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 2.0 | — | 17.4% | |
| 7 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0 | — | Missed last 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 26.2% | |
| 32 | F | Fr | 6'11" | 1-0 | 3.0 | — | — | Missed last | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 17.4% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesUNC Greensboro
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +5.0
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-0
Road
1-1
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −2.5
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | UIC | A | L 72–82 | +20.5 | W+10.5 | 148.0 | O154 | 112.1 | 127.7 | 64.2 |
| Nov 6 | Elon | A | L 65–74 | +8.5 | L−0.5 | 150.0 | U139 | 96.9 | 110.3 | 67.1 |
| Nov 3 | Milligan Buffaloes | H | W 96–43 | — | — | — | — | 125.8 | 56.3 | 76.3 |
| Mar 8 | Furman | N | L 75–81 | +6.0 | P0.0 | 148.5 | O156 | 114.3 | 123.4 | 65.6 |
| Mar 7 | Wofford | N | W 75–72 | +5.5 | W+8.5 | 156.5 | U147 | 114.3 | 109.7 | 65.6 |
| Mar 6 | VMI | N | W 84–70 | −6.5 | W+7.5 | 156.0 | U154 | 124.6 | 103.8 | 67.4 |
| Feb 28 | Samford | A | L 78–87 | +9.5 | W+0.5 | 157.0 | O165 | 107.4 | 119.8 | 72.6 |
| Feb 26 | Chattanooga | A | W 85–80 | +3.5 | W+8.5 | 157.5 | O165 | 110.8 | 104.3 | 76.7 |
| Feb 21 | ETSU | H | L 75–87 | +6.0 | L−6.0 | 149.0 | O162 | 112.1 | 130.1 | 66.9 |
| Feb 18 | W Carolina | A | L 77–91 | +6.0 | L−8.0 | 155.0 | O168 | 109.3 | 129.1 | 70.5 |
Santa Barbara
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +9.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
1-0
Road
0-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +8.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Oakland | H | W 90–67 | −13.5 | W+9.5 | 149.0 | O157 | 140.5 | 104.6 | 64.1 |
| Nov 2 | San Francisco State Gators | H | W 85–55 | — | — | — | — | 123.3 | 79.8 | 68.9 |
| Mar 11 | UC Davis | N | L 73–79 | −4.5 | L−10.5 | 139.5 | O152 | 99.1 | 107.2 | 73.7 |
| Mar 7 | UC San Diego | H | L 63–64 | −2.0 | L−3.0 | 142.0 | U127 | 100.9 | 102.5 | 62.4 |
| Feb 28 | UC Irvine | A | L 60–64 | +3.5 | L−0.5 | 138.5 | U124 | 90.8 | 96.9 | 66.1 |
| Feb 26 | UC Riverside | H | W 70–59 | −11.0 | P0.0 | 145.5 | U129 | 102.7 | 86.6 | 68.1 |
| Feb 21 | Hawai'i | A | L 75–78 OT | +5.0 | W+2.0 | 145.5 | O153 | 101.3 | 105.4 | 74.0 |
| Feb 19 | CSU Northridge | H | L 83–85 OT | −5.5 | L−7.5 | 156.5 | O168 | 99.7 | 102.1 | 83.2 |
| Feb 14 | Cal Poly | A | L 79–89 | −4.5 | L−14.5 | 159.0 | O168 | 118.5 | 133.5 | 66.7 |
| Feb 12 | UC Riverside | A | W 76–68 | −7.0 | W+1.0 | 145.0 | U144 | 118.1 | 105.7 | 64.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeUNC GreensboroSanta Barbara
Efficiency
106.0
111.9
112.9
107.1
68.8
67.4
3.5
-6.2
Shooting
49.1%
67.2%
50.9%
41.4%
31.7%
62.1%
91.7%
66.7%
20.5%
31.0%
Ball control & glass
19.8%
9.4%
12.2%
17.2%
27.9%
29.0%
43.9%
10.3%
9.1%
6.2%
10.5%
0.0%
Style
51.3%
50.0%
33.6%
24.4%
9.5%
17.8%
52.1%
83.3%
30.9%
51.5%
Roster
2.65
3.11
6'4.3"
6'6"
1.3%
54.8%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputUNC Greensboro
Returning minutes: 2.1%Returning production: 1.7%
Lost
- Justin Neely 32.3 mpg, 17.9 ppg · transferred to Colorado
- KJ Younger 28.5 mpg, 15.1 ppg · transferred to Texas St
- Donald Whitehead Jr. 26.2 mpg, 10.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Noah Norgaard 25.1 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Western KY
- Valentino Pinedo 24.9 mpg, 6.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Lilian Marville 23.9 mpg, 8.7 ppg · transferred to George Mason
Added
- Braxton Stacker from SE Missouri · 28.2 mpg, 11.8 ppg last season
- Zavier Fitch from Wagner · 13.5 mpg, 3.9 ppg last season
- Cameron Grant from Stanford · 6.3 mpg, 1.3 ppg last season
- Ante Beljan from UIC · 5.5 mpg, 2.6 ppg last season
- RJ Greer from Davidson · 3.4 mpg, 1.7 ppg last season
- Vernon Collins Jr. from W Carolina · 1.0 mpg, 0.2 ppg last season
Returns 2% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Santa Barbara
Returning minutes: 55.3%Returning production: 56.1%
Lost
- Colin Smith 28.4 mpg, 11.5 ppg · transferred to Northwestern
- Zion Sensley 25.2 mpg, 10.9 ppg · transferred to LMU
- Hosana Kitenge 20.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Evans Kipruto 7.9 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- ZZ Clark 4.4 mpg, 1.5 ppg · transferred to William & Mary
- Jason Fontenet II 4.2 mpg, 1.0 ppg · transferred to Rhode Island
Added
- RJ Smith from DePaul · 27.7 mpg, 6.6 ppg last season
- Eric Dibami from FIU · 27.2 mpg, 8.7 ppg last season
- Viljami Vartiainen from Weber St · 24.3 mpg, 10.4 ppg last season
- Antonio Chol from New Mexico · 24.2 mpg, 7.7 ppg last season
- Declan Duru Jr. from Texas · 2.3 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Bryce Bedgood no D1 minutes last season
Returns 55% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.