CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteTruist Arena, Highland Heights, KY

Bellarmine

Efficiency #281

2025-26: 13-19 · 8-12 conf

GA Southern

Efficiency #231

2025-26: 21-16 · 13-11 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · TBD

80.1

win 43%

Projected

82.3

win 57%

No line posted yet.

Model: GASO −2.1 · total 162.4 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: GA Southern 70.1, Bellarmine 66.5 → 68.3 possessions

0.0

GA Southern offense vs Bellarmine defense

+8.1

Bellarmine offense vs GA Southern defense

+6.0

Projected total

162.4

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

GA Southern offense vs Bellarmine defense

+8.1

Bellarmine offense vs GA Southern defense

−6.0

GA Southern by 2.1

2.1

Bellarmine side ◂▸ GA Southern side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 162.3 against a projected 162.4. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help GA Southern.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.3, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, GA Southern is the faster team (71.0, #50 of 365) and Bellarmine the slower (66.2, #287). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.3

per team, 40 min

Projected total

162.4

model

Projected team totals

80.1 / 82.3

Bellarmine / GA Southern

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.5#319

Bellarmine

70.1#40

GA Southern

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageBellarmine

Where Bellarmine scores: shooting

Bellarmine shoots an effective 59.4% (#3); GA Southern allows 52.3% (#230). Expect about 56.5%, 5.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +7.5 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageGA Southern

Where GA Southern scores: shooting

GA Southern shoots an effective 51.4% (#176); Bellarmine allows 59.4% (#365). Expect about 55.5%, 4.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.0 points per 100 possessions.

ClashGA Southern

Style match: 3-point volume

GA Southern takes 48.9% of its shots from three; Bellarmine lets opponents take 50.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 54.2% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversGA Southern

GA Southern protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.5% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for GA Southern's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Bellarmine, Bellarmine's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Bellarmine at about 40.9% of its shots from three, GA Southern about 54.2%.

GlassBellarmine

Bellarmine gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.2% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Bellarmine's offense.

Bellarmine has the ball

OffenseGA Southern allowsvs D1 avg

59.4% #3

52.3% #230

+7.5 pt/100

15.5% #104

18.7% #61

-0.6 pt/100

22.4% #354

35.2% #342

-2.0 pt/100

35.0% #178

41.4% #316

+0.5 pt/100

78.8% #7

—

+0.6 pt/100

Bellarmine net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.9 pts/100

GA Southern has the ball

OffenseBellarmine allowsvs D1 avg

51.4% #176

59.4% #365

+6.0 pt/100

14.6% #48

15.0% #287

+2.8 pt/100

28.8% #238

34.2% #320

+0.5 pt/100

39.6% #62

34.3% #157

+0.2 pt/100

74.3% #111

—

+0.2 pt/100

GA Southern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Bellarmineoffense vsGA Southerndefense

Share of shots by zone

Bellarmine shoots

47.4

5.9

40.7

GA Southern allows

42.5

4.5

13.9

39.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	66.7%#9	59.2%#201	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.4%#137	39.3%#167	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.8%#234	35.9%#103	38.0%
Three	38.1%#17	34.3%#208	33.7%

GA Southernoffense vsBellarminedefense

Share of shots by zone

GA Southern shoots

37.8

4.8

8.2

49.3

Bellarmine allows

33.1

6.3

10.1

50.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.2%#264	67.7%#363	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.7%#54	35.6%#79	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.4%#100	39.5%#221	38.0%
Three	33.4%#207	40.4%#364	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Bellarmine

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#324 of 365

Off reb %

22.4%

#354

Def reb %

65.8%

#320

Turnover %

15.5%

#104

Forced TO %

15.0%

#287

FT rate

35.0%

#178

FT allowed

34.3%

#157

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−2.6

Defensive rebounding−1.2

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.3

GA Southern

+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#163 of 365

Off reb %

28.8%

#238

Def reb %

64.8%

#342

Turnover %

14.6%

#48

Forced TO %

18.7%

#61

FT rate

39.6%

#62

FT allowed

41.4%

#316

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.5

Defensive rebounding−1.5

Ball security+1.5

Forcing turnovers+1.4

Foul shots drawn+1.2

Foul shots allowed−1.6

GA Southern has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.5 (#163 of 365) to Bellarmine’s −3.7 (#324).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Bellarmine2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Kenyon Goodin	G	So	6'3"	31-31	32.6	11.6	2.8	2.0	0.7	62.7%	41.8%	5.1	87.3%	17.5%
11	Brian Waddell	F	Sr	6'7"	32-31	31.2	15.0	4.3	2.1	1.6	67.5%	41.9%	1.9	79.8%	23.9%
32	Jack Karasinski	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	29.8	21.7	4.7	1.2	1.4	65.5%	41.5%	5.7	80.7%	34.5%
23	Sam Donald	F	Fr	6'8"	30-29	26.6	6.5	3.3	2.0	0.8	63.9%	42.1%	2.5	76.5%	13.0%
2	Tyler Doyle	G	So	6'5"	26-23	27.8	10.0	2.8	3.8	1.6	56.0%	33.3%	1.6	76.1%	21.9%
7	Donovan Hunter	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	13.0	4.1	1.9	0.7	0.6	46.3%	32.1%	2.7	60.0%	22.7%
5	Myles Watkins	G	Sr	6'3"	30-2	10.8	3.6	1.0	1.2	0.8	53.0%	21.4%	0.5	90.9%	21.9%
22	Darrius Bolden	G	Sr	6'1"	28-6	10.9	1.2	0.9	1.6	0.5	34.8%	27.3%	0.4	68.8%	10.5%
44	Jacob Wassler	C	Fr	6'11"	22-0	12.7	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.8	54.4%	35.7%	1.3	100.0%	17.6%
10	Grant Whitaker	G	So	6'4"	26-3	8.2	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.6	50.0%	20.0%	0.4	72.7%	16.0%
0	Tommy Clark	G	Fr	6'3"	12-0	4.3	1.9	0.3	0.3	0.0	58.3%	35.7%	1.2	100.0%	21.4%
4	Grant Neal	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	3.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	52.5%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	36.4%
14	Dominique Murphy	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	6.0	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.8	50.0%	—	0.0	—	25.7%
15	Luke Anderson	F	So	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	Ant McAfee	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

GA Southern2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Spudd Webb	G	Sr	6'4"	37-37	32.4	15.5	4.6	2.5	1.6	56.6%	31.9%	3.6	81.8%	24.6%
13	Alden Applewhite	F	Sr	6'7"	36-35	31.3	14.1	5.9	1.2	1.2	56.5%	37.4%	4.1	79.3%	22.5%
12	Tyren Moore	G	Sr	5'11"	37-37	29.4	16.1	2.9	2.6	1.8	56.1%	38.7%	8.4	83.0%	29.6%
5	Nakavieon White	F	Sr	6'7"	37-6	20.1	9.7	3.1	2.3	1.6	44.1%	32.5%	3.2	67.1%	32.0%
3	Khayri Dunn	G	So	6'1"	36-0	17.5	7.4	1.7	0.9	1.4	50.2%	34.3%	3.9	81.8%	27.0%
11	Shainen Carter	F	Sr	6'9"	34-22	17.5	4.0	3.3	0.2	0.9	53.5%	16.7%	0.2	64.3%	13.9%
24	Andres Burney	F	Sr	6'9"	35-15	15.7	4.7	3.7	0.3	0.6	66.1%	—	0.0	54.5%	15.4%
9	Jefferson Koulibaly	G	Sr	6'3"	25-16	21.1	4.4	2.8	0.7	0.6	38.8%	24.1%	2.2	57.9%	15.3%
1	Dwayne Williams Jr	G	Fr	6'6"	34-3	13.0	4.5	1.7	0.4	0.3	46.0%	30.2%	2.8	93.8%	21.0%
7	Tsvet Sotirov	F	So	6'9"	35-3	11.3	2.7	1.6	0.4	0.3	43.0%	25.3%	2.3	60.0%	16.5%
0	Jayden Williams	G	Fr	6'6"	17-11	9.0	1.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	26.0%	12.5%	0.5	47.1%	12.6%
10	Sean Van Dorn Jr	G	Fr	6'6"	5-0	5.0	3.0	0.4	0.2	0.0	50.0%	40.0%	1.0	75.0%	30.1%
4	Cade Lomas	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.7	—	23.3%
6	Amare Neal	G	Fr	5'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Cullen Schreiner	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Dallas Gardner	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
34	Pavle Ridesic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Bellarmine2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Kenyon Goodin	G	So	6'3"	31-31	32.6	11.6	2.8	2.0	0.7	62.7%	41.8%	5.1	87.3%	17.5%
11	Brian Waddell	F	Sr	6'7"	32-31	31.2	15.0	4.3	2.1	1.6	67.5%	41.9%	1.9	79.8%	23.9%
32	Jack Karasinski	F	Sr	6'7"	30-30	29.8	21.7	4.7	1.2	1.4	65.5%	41.5%	5.7	80.7%	34.5%
23	Sam Donald	F	Fr	6'8"	30-29	26.6	6.5	3.3	2.0	0.8	63.9%	42.1%	2.5	76.5%	13.0%
2	Tyler Doyle	G	So	6'5"	26-23	27.8	10.0	2.8	3.8	1.6	56.0%	33.3%	1.6	76.1%	21.9%
7	Donovan Hunter	F	Jr	6'8"	29-1	13.0	4.1	1.9	0.7	0.6	46.3%	32.1%	2.7	60.0%	22.7%
5	Myles Watkins	G	Sr	6'3"	30-2	10.8	3.6	1.0	1.2	0.8	53.0%	21.4%	0.5	90.9%	21.9%
22	Darrius Bolden	G	Sr	6'1"	28-6	10.9	1.2	0.9	1.6	0.5	34.8%	27.3%	0.4	68.8%	10.5%
44	Jacob Wassler	C	Fr	6'11"	22-0	12.7	3.5	2.5	0.4	0.8	54.4%	35.7%	1.3	100.0%	17.6%
10	Grant Whitaker	G	So	6'4"	26-3	8.2	1.7	1.1	0.8	0.6	50.0%	20.0%	0.4	72.7%	16.0%
0	Tommy Clark	G	Fr	6'3"	12-0	4.3	1.9	0.3	0.3	0.0	58.3%	35.7%	1.2	100.0%	21.4%
4	Grant Neal	G	Fr	6'3"	11-0	4.1	3.0	0.5	0.1	0.1	52.5%	25.0%	0.4	75.0%	36.4%
14	Dominique Murphy	F	Fr	6'5"	4-0	6.0	2.0	1.5	0.3	0.8	50.0%	—	0.0	—	25.7%
15	Luke Anderson	F	So	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
1	Ant McAfee	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Bellarmine

Against the spread

Season

17-13

Home

10-3

Road

6-9

Last 10

5-5

avg cover +3.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-10

Home

7-6

Road

11-4

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +11.7

Over 3 straightOver in 5 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	N	L 73–86	+8.0	L−5.0	155.0	O159	115.6	136.2	63.1
Mar 4	JacksonvilleAdjEM #294	N	W 82–79	−2.0	W+1.0	146.5	O161	128.6	123.8	63.8
Feb 28	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	W 111–97	+5.5	W+19.5	155.0	O208	134.2	117.3	82.7
Feb 25	North AlabamaAdjEM #343	A	L 68–73	−3.0	L−8.0	147.0	U141	115.5	124.0	58.8
Feb 21	E KentuckyAdjEM #287	H	L 92–95	+2.0	L−1.0	153.0	O187	144.3	149.0	63.7
Feb 18	LipscombAdjEM #179	H	L 72–75	+3.5	W+0.5	155.5	U147	112.5	117.2	64.0
Feb 14	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	A	L 70–90	+9.5	L−10.5	153.0	O160	115.7	148.8	60.5
Feb 11	C ArkansasAdjEM #139	A	L 76–84	+7.5	L−0.5	149.5	O160	115.9	128.0	65.6
Feb 7	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	W 81–65	+2.0	W+18.0	152.5	U146	120.3	96.5	67.3
Feb 5	StetsonAdjEM #322	H	W 92–71	−4.5	W+16.5	148.5	O163	149.6	115.5	61.5

GA Southern

Against the spread

Season

17-16-1

Home

5-6-1

Road

7-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +5.1

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-16

Home

6-6

Road

9-5

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +3.1

Under 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	TroyAdjEM #136	N	L 61–77	+5.0	L−11.0	152.5	U138	96.7	122.0	63.1
Mar 8	MarshallAdjEM #175	N	W 82–78	+3.5	W+7.5	166.5	U160	113.3	107.7	72.4
Mar 7	CoastalAdjEM #241	N	W 96–72	+1.0	W+25.0	150.5	O168	140.9	105.7	68.1
Mar 6	South AlabamaAdjEM #188	N	W 94–85	+4.5	W+13.5	148.5	O179	139.9	126.5	67.2
Mar 5	Arkansas StAdjEM #132	N	W 80–77	+7.5	W+10.5	166.0	U157	116.4	112.0	68.7
Mar 4	Old DominionAdjEM #242	N	W 88–84	−2.0	W+2.0	157.5	O172	127.4	121.6	69.1
Feb 27	MarshallAdjEM #175	A	W 99–82	+7.5	W+24.5	168.5	O181	138.1	114.4	71.7
Feb 25	James MadisonAdjEM #206	A	L 66–82	+5.5	L−10.5	153.5	U148	93.7	116.4	70.4
Feb 21	App StateAdjEM #180	A	L 74–89	+7.5	L−7.5	146.5	O163	104.1	125.2	71.1
Feb 19	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	L 64–66	−1.0	L−3.0	155.0	U130	93.3	96.2	68.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

BellarmineGA Southern

Efficiency

113.2

109.5

119.4

112.5

66.5

70.1

—

Shooting

59.4%

51.4%

61.0%

52.7%

38.1%

33.4%

78.8%

74.3%

35.0%

39.6%

Ball control & glass

15.5%

14.6%

15.0%

18.7%

22.4%

28.8%

34.2%

35.2%

9.1%

9.0%

9.1%

9.2%

Style

41.2%

48.9%

47.0%

38.2%

9.2%

12.4%

53.4%

41.1%

28.4%

36.5%

Roster

2.70

3.48

6'5.8"

6'4.9"

93.7%

—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Bellarmine

Returning minutes: 93.7%Returning production: 94.6%

Lost

Michael Wilson Jr. 12.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg · transferred to Canisius

Added

Ant McAfee no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 94% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

GA Southern

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted GA Southern's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.