Ohio Bobcats vs New Mexico State Aggies basketball preview & prediction
Tue, Nov 24 · 11:00 AM ET · The Reef, Jacksonville, FL (neutral site)
Jacksonville ClassicNeutral siteNon-conferenceThe Reef, Jacksonville, FL
Ohio
2-0 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #168
vs
New Mexico St
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #231
Tue, Nov 24 · 11:00 AM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 71.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Ohio is the faster team (70.9, #178 of 365) and New Mexico St the slower (70.1, #202). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
71.0
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
71.9#104
Ohio
69.7#248
New Mexico St
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
New Mexico St has the ball−3.7
Ohio has the ball+24.1
New Mexico St has the ball
✓Gets to the lineFTR 50.0% #55 · OHIO allows 46.5% #276 · FT 91.7% #2+2.4
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 47.9% #224 · OHIO allows 48.7% #144−2.2
✗Few second chancesOR% 32.1% #167 · OHIO allows 20.5% #16−2.1
✗Coughs it upTO% 27.1% #346 · OHIO forces 13.4% #304 · ~14 turnovers−1.7
Ohio has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 59.8% #38 · NMSU allows 71.8% #358+16.7
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 19.7% #240 · NMSU forces 8.6% #355 · ~9 turnovers+4.6
✓Wins second chancesOR% 32.8% #155 · NMSU allows 39.3% #308+2.0
✓Gets to the lineFTR 38.4% #159 · NMSU allows 46.8% #279 · FT 74.4% #114+0.8
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootOhiooffense vsNew Mexico Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Ohio shoots
45.5
4.5
4.5
45.5
New Mexico St allows
42.9
10.2
10.2
36.7
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.8%#137 | 71.4%#318 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 20.0%#275 | 40.0%#193 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.0%#117 | 80.0%#349 | 34.7% |
| Three | 43.1%#33 | 54.2%#357 | 32.5% |
New Mexico Stoffense vsOhiodefense
Share of shots by zone
New Mexico St shoots
45.0
17.5
15.0
22.5
Ohio allows
38.7
9.0
15.3
36.9
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 61.1%#134 | 67.4%#279 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 57.1%#53 | 30.0%#111 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 33.3%#174 | 41.2%#230 | 34.7% |
| Three | 28.6%#233 | 25.0%#47 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineOhio
−2.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#212 of 365
Off reb %
32.8%
#155
Def reb %
79.5%
#16
Turnover %
19.7%
#240
Forced TO %
13.4%
#304
FT rate
38.4%
#159
FT allowed
46.5%
#276
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.4
Defensive rebounding+3.7
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers−3.3
Foul shots drawn+0.3
Foul shots allowed−2.2
New Mexico St
−14.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#342 of 365
Off reb %
32.1%
#167
Def reb %
60.7%
#308
Turnover %
27.1%
#346
Forced TO %
8.6%
#355
FT rate
50.0%
#55
FT allowed
46.8%
#279
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.2
Defensive rebounding−2.6
Ball security−6.3
Forcing turnovers−6.7
Foul shots drawn+3.3
Foul shots allowed−2.3
Ohio has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.2 (#212 of 365) to New Mexico St’s −14.4 (#342).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notOhio2026-27 numbers · last game: NC A&T, Nov 7
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | F | Fr | 6'8" | 2-2 | 35.5 | 35 | — | Started last | 10.0 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 56.7% | 60.0% | 2.5 | 75.0% | 18.4% | |
| 3 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 2-2 | 35.5 | 33 | — | Started last | 15.0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 73.1% | 100.0% | 1.5 | 73.3% | 23.4% | |
| 1 | F | Sr | 6'7" | 2-2 | 31.0 | 26 | — | Started last | 14.0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 70.6% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 66.7% | 22.9% | |
| 10 | G | Sr | 6'7" | 2-2 | 29.0 | 31 | — | Started last | 11.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 45.7% | 27.3% | 5.5 | 100.0% | 24.5% | |
| 14 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 2-2 | 27.5 | 25 | — | Started last | 13.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 63.2% | 42.1% | 9.5 | 60.0% | 23.2% | |
| 12 | G | Sr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 13.0 | 12 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 2.0 | 50.0% | 15.2% | |
| 24 | G | Sr | 6'4" | 2-0 | 9.0 | 10 | — | Bench | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 91.7% | 60.0% | 2.5 | — | 19.0% | |
| 4 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 12 | — | Bench | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 108.3% | 100.0% | 0.5 | 100.0% | 40.1% | |
| 17 | F | So | 6'9" | 2-0 | 8.0 | 9 | — | Bench | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | 50.0% | 28.3% | |
| 5 | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 7.0 | 7 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 24.2% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesOhio
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +1.8
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −1.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | NC A&T | H | W 80–70 | −14.5 | L−4.5 | 161.0 | U150 | 112.9 | 98.8 | 70.9 |
| Nov 2 | South Alabama | A | W 86–77 | −1.0 | W+8.0 | 155.0 | O163 | 121.3 | 108.6 | 70.9 |
| Mar 12 | Kent State | N | L 75–86 | +3.5 | L−7.5 | 160.5 | O161 | 105.7 | 121.1 | 71.0 |
| Mar 6 | #19Miami OH | H | L 108–110 OT | +3.5 | W+1.5 | 160.0 | O218 | 129.8 | 132.3 | 83.2 |
| Mar 3 | UMass | A | L 82–94 | +1.5 | L−10.5 | 156.5 | O176 | 106.9 | 122.6 | 76.7 |
| Feb 28 | Toledo | H | L 67–79 | −2.5 | L−14.5 | 159.0 | U146 | 101.2 | 119.4 | 66.2 |
| Feb 21 | N Illinois | A | W 74–66 | −5.5 | W+2.5 | 150.0 | U140 | 114.6 | 102.2 | 64.6 |
| Feb 17 | Ball State | H | W 69–57 | −9.5 | W+2.5 | 144.5 | U126 | 115.4 | 95.3 | 59.8 |
| Feb 13 | #23Miami OH | A | L 74–90 | +7.5 | L−8.5 | 164.5 | U164 | 102.9 | 125.2 | 71.9 |
| Feb 7 | Old Dominion | A | L 72–78 | −3.5 | L−9.5 | 156.0 | U150 | 111.0 | 120.3 | 64.8 |
New Mexico St
Against the spread
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg cover −12.0
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg vs total +25.0
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | #15Gonzaga | A | L 68–109 | +29.0 | L−12.0 | 152.0 | O177 | 97.0 | 155.5 | 70.1 |
| Nov 3 | Western New Mexico Mustangs | H | W 73–66 | — | — | — | — | 105.0 | 94.9 | 69.5 |
| Mar 11 | Sam Houston | N | L 61–69 | +4.5 | L−3.5 | 155.0 | U130 | 85.3 | 96.5 | 71.5 |
| Mar 10 | Jax State | N | W 68–63 | −1.5 | W+3.5 | 142.0 | U131 | 105.9 | 98.1 | 64.2 |
| Mar 7 | Kennesaw St | H | W 79–76 | −1.0 | W+2.0 | 157.5 | U155 | 116.9 | 112.5 | 67.6 |
| Mar 5 | Jax State | H | W 77–75 OT | −6.0 | L−4.0 | 145.5 | O152 | 101.5 | 98.8 | 75.9 |
| Feb 28 | MTSU | A | L 85–86 OT | +5.5 | W+4.5 | 148.0 | O171 | 113.0 | 114.3 | 75.2 |
| Feb 26 | Western KY | A | L 70–93 | +5.5 | L−17.5 | 151.5 | O163 | 88.7 | 117.8 | 78.9 |
| Feb 21 | UTEP | H | W 67–63 | −7.0 | L−3.0 | 143.0 | U130 | 115.0 | 108.2 | 58.3 |
| Feb 14 | Jax State | A | W 79–70 | +2.5 | W+11.5 | 140.5 | O149 | 119.9 | 106.3 | 65.9 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeOhioNew Mexico St
Efficiency
107.7
106.9
107.9
111.2
71.9
69.7
-4.8
23.9
Shooting
59.8%
47.9%
55.7%
50.0%
43.1%
28.6%
74.4%
91.7%
38.4%
50.0%
Ball control & glass
19.7%
27.1%
13.4%
8.6%
32.8%
32.1%
20.5%
39.3%
12.0%
14.3%
8.2%
8.8%
Style
45.5%
29.2%
38.6%
50.0%
10.8%
5.9%
64.3%
28.6%
20.8%
37.3%
Roster
3.10
2.82
6'4.9"
6'4.9"
34.9%
21.5%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputOhio
Returning minutes: 38.6%Returning production: 47.2%
Lost
- Aidan Hadaway 31.8 mpg, 14.4 ppg · transferred to Green Bay
- Ajay Sheldon 30.8 mpg, 7.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- JJ Kelly 25.8 mpg, 8.3 ppg · transferred to UTSA
- Jalen Breath 11.8 mpg, 3.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Dior Conners 11.2 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Elliott 8.7 mpg, 1.7 ppg · transferred to North Florida
Added
- Kyler D'Augustino from IU Indy · 30.3 mpg, 17.3 ppg last season
- Kolton Mitchell from Idaho · 27.9 mpg, 12.6 ppg last season
- Christian Trudic no D1 minutes last season
- Ché Brogan no D1 minutes last season
- Jordie Bowens no D1 minutes last season
- Dusan Makitan no D1 minutes last season
Returns 39% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (2 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
New Mexico St
Returning minutes: 21.5%Returning production: 16.7%
Lost
- Jemel Jones 28.4 mpg, 17.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Julius Mims 26.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Anthony Wrzeszcz 24.6 mpg, 7.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jayland Randall 19.9 mpg, 8.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Elijah Elliott 18.1 mpg, 8.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Chris Terrell 12.4 mpg, 4.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Gabe Warren from Holy Cross · 31.6 mpg, 12.5 ppg last season
- DJ Dudley from Louisiana Tech · 30.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg last season
- Jermaine Washington from San José St · 26.3 mpg, 8.7 ppg last season
- Mark Lavrenov from Sacramento St · 26.0 mpg, 9.9 ppg last season
- Stephon Payne from Seton Hall · 20.2 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season
- Leopold Levillain from Long Beach St · 18.1 mpg, 4.5 ppg last season
Returns 21% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Tue, Nov 24
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- Southern Utah at FIU · 1:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood vs New Haven · 1:00 PM ET
- Oklahoma vs Pitt · 1:30 PM ET
- Rice vs UIC · 1:30 PM ET
- Oregon St vs San Francisco · 2:00 PM ET
- Tennessee vs Maryland · 3:00 PM ET
- Miami vs TCU · 3:00 PM ET
- North Dakota vs Detroit Mercy · 3:00 PM ET
- App State vs Yale · 3:00 PM ET
- Long Beach St vs Arkansas St · 3:30 PM ET
- Air Force vs Army · 4:00 PM ET
- Tulsa vs Illinois St · 4:30 PM ET
- Creighton vs Michigan · 5:30 PM ET
- San Diego St vs Iowa State · 5:30 PM ET
- Wyoming vs Kent State · 5:30 PM ET
- DePaul vs Purdue · 6:00 PM ET
- E Michigan vs Kennesaw St · 6:00 PM ET
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- Mercer at FAU · 6:00 PM ET
- S Indiana at VMI · 6:00 PM ET
- Sacred Heart at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Elon at Furman · 6:30 PM ET
- Robert Morris vs Lamar · 6:30 PM ET
- Milwaukee at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at Bowling Green · 7:00 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Charleston So at James Madison · 7:00 PM ET
- Nevada vs Santa Clara · 7:00 PM ET
- Jacksonville at Indiana · 7:00 PM ET
- Vanderbilt at Ohio State · 7:00 PM ET
- Stetson at South Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Samford at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Harvard · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
- UMBC at Iowa · 7:00 PM ET
- Campbell at Coastal · 7:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Seton Hall · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Morgan St · 7:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at Chattanooga · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Loyola MD · 7:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Marist · 7:00 PM ET
- Tarleton St at Weber St · 7:00 PM ET
- Hampton at Old Dominion · 7:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Tennessee Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Hou Christian at UL Monroe · 7:30 PM ET
- High Point vs Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Purdue FW at SE Missouri · 7:30 PM ET
- C Michigan at Notre Dame · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Tech vs Louisville · 8:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at Auburn · 8:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Kansas City · 8:00 PM ET
- Drexel at Penn · 8:00 PM ET
- Bucknell at Cornell · 8:00 PM ET
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- Oral Roberts at UT Arlington · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at South Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- Charleston vs UTEP · 8:30 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at Florida St · 9:00 PM ET
- Evansville at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Santa Barbara · 9:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Washington St · 9:00 PM ET
- Grand Canyon vs Saint Louis · 9:30 PM ET
- Baylor vs Alabama · 10:00 PM ET
- Oregon vs St John's · 10:30 PM ET
- Stanford vs Colorado · 11:59 PM ET
- Gonzaga vs Kansas St · 12:30 AM ET
- Bellarmine vs GA Southern · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.