App State Mountaineers vs Yale Bulldogs basketball preview & prediction
Tue, Nov 24 · 3:00 PM ET · State Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL (neutral site)
ESPN Events Invitational - Adventure BracketNeutral siteNon-conferenceESPN+State Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL
App State
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #155
vs
Yale
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #90
Tue, Nov 24 · 3:00 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 61.9, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, Yale is the faster team (67.4, #275 of 365) and App State the slower (59.4, #359). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
61.9
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
64.6#365
App State
67.8#333
Yale
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
Yale has the ball+1.1
App State has the ball+0.2
Yale has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 47.2% #238 · APP allows 43.9% #66−4.5
✓Wins second chancesOR% 39.5% #52 · APP allows 37.7% #288+3.2
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 18.5% #201 · APP forces 13.5% #302 · ~10 turnovers+2.2
✓Gets to the lineFTR 28.2% #276 · APP allows 30.4% #107 · FT 85.7% #11+0.2
App State has the ball
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 43.9% #282 · YALE allows 44.9% #77−5.7
✓Wins second chancesOR% 41.4% #34 · YALE allows 38.2% #296+3.8
✓Takes care of the ballTO% 21.0% #272 · YALE forces 9.6% #350 · ~9 turnovers+2.9
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 34.0% #215 · YALE allows 29.4% #92 · FT 63.9% #272−0.8
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootApp Stateoffense vsYaledefense
Share of shots by zone
App State shoots
22.2
3.3
18.9
55.6
Yale allows
49.6
4.3
11.1
35.0
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.0%#104 | 48.3%#62 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 33.3%#183 | 20.0%#54 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 47.1%#75 | 53.8%#313 | 34.7% |
| Three | 25.9%#290 | 24.0%#38 | 32.5% |
Yaleoffense vsApp Statedefense
Share of shots by zone
Yale shoots
38.5
3.4
18.8
39.3
App State allows
37.2
12.8
17.0
33.0
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 46.7%#305 | 51.4%#93 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 50.0%#75 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 40.9%#116 | 12.5%#34 | 34.7% |
| Three | 34.7%#134 | 31.0%#146 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul lineApp State
−2.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#223 of 365
Off reb %
41.4%
#34
Def reb %
62.3%
#288
Turnover %
21.0%
#272
Forced TO %
13.5%
#302
FT rate
34.0%
#215
FT allowed
30.4%
#107
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+3.3
Defensive rebounding−2.0
Ball security−2.0
Forcing turnovers−3.3
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+2.0
Yale
−5.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#264 of 365
Off reb %
39.5%
#52
Def reb %
61.8%
#296
Turnover %
18.5%
#201
Forced TO %
9.6%
#350
FT rate
28.2%
#276
FT allowed
29.4%
#92
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.6
Defensive rebounding−2.2
Ball security−0.2
Forcing turnovers−6.0
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed+2.2
App State has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.9 (#223 of 365) to Yale’s −5.9 (#264).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notApp State2026-27 numbers · last game: Auburn, Nov 9
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | Min/40, last 8 | Last 3 vs before | Status | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 3-3 | 29.0 | 38 | — | Started last | 11.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 48.5% | 33.3% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 27.5% | |
| 5 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 3-3 | 24.7 | 30 | — | Started last | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 39.7% | 35.7% | 4.7 | 100.0% | 28.8% | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 3-3 | 24.7 | 32 | — | Started last | 10.0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 50.0% | 23.5% | 5.7 | 80.0% | 30.2% | |
| 23 | F | Sr | 6'8" | 3-3 | 18.3 | 30 | — | Started last | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 60.0% | 14.9% | |
| 7 | F | Fr | 6'7" | 3-3 | 16.3 | 15 | — | Started last | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 54.5% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 75.0% | 20.8% | |
| 6 | F | Jr | 6'6" | 3-0 | 16.0 | 23 | — | Bench | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 87.5% | 100.0% | 0.3 | 80.0% | 23.5% | |
| 12 | C | Fr | 7'2" | 3-0 | 13.0 | 7 | — | Bench | 3.3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 75.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 66.7% | 14.5% | |
| 2 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 16.0 | 10 | — | Bench | 6.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 41.7% | 40.0% | 2.5 | 75.0% | 28.8% | |
| 21 | F | So | 6'6" | 3-0 | 9.7 | 6 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 75.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 14.5% | |
| 3 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 9.3 | 8 | — | Bench | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 2.7 | 100.0% | 30.3% | |
| 25 | G | Jr | 6'4" | 3-0 | 6.7 | 3 | — | Bench | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 2.0 | 0.0% | 25.1% | |
| 13 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 7.5 | — | — | Active | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 68.8% | 33.3% | 1.5 | 0.0% | 32.6% | |
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'1" | 2-0 | 7.0 | — | — | Active | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 25.0% | 16.7% | 3.0 | — | 23.7% | |
| 17 | C | Fr | 7'0" | 1-0 | 8.0 | — | — | Missed last | 10.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 83.3% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 50.4% | |
| 14 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 8.0 | — | — | Missed last | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | 66.7% | 29.8% | |
| 22 | G | Fr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 7.0 | — | — | Missed last | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 150.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 | — | 7.7% | |
| 32 | G | Sr | 6'3" | 1-0 | 7.0 | — | — | Missed last | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 | — | 15.4% | |
| 33 | F | So | 6'7" | 1-0 | 6.0 | — | — | Missed last | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 36.0% |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesApp State
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +9.0
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
0-2
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-2
avg vs total −19.0
Under 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 | Auburn | A | L 53–75 | +23.0 | W+1.0 | 143.5 | U128 | 85.8 | 121.4 | 61.8 |
| Nov 4 | Christendom Crusaders | H | W 108–43 | — | — | — | — | 145.0 | 57.7 | 74.5 |
| Nov 2 | Merrimack | N | W 63–49 | +3.0 | W+17.0 | 134.5 | U112 | 110.3 | 85.8 | 57.1 |
| Mar 7 | Southern Miss | N | L 73–86 | −5.0 | L−18.0 | 137.5 | O159 | 106.5 | 125.4 | 68.6 |
| Feb 27 | Texas St | A | L 57–60 | −1.0 | L−4.0 | 135.0 | U117 | 93.8 | 98.7 | 60.8 |
| Feb 21 | GA Southern | H | W 89–74 | −7.5 | W+7.5 | 146.5 | O163 | 125.2 | 104.1 | 71.1 |
| Feb 19 | Marshall | H | L 93–94 | −3.5 | L−4.5 | 143.5 | O187 | 139.9 | 141.4 | 66.5 |
| Feb 14 | James Madison | A | L 58–69 | −1.5 | L−12.5 | 135.0 | U127 | 94.7 | 112.7 | 61.2 |
| Feb 11 | GA Southern | A | W 81–65 | −1.5 | W+14.5 | 144.0 | O146 | 122.2 | 98.1 | 66.3 |
| Feb 7 | E Michigan | H | W 65–60 | −7.5 | L−2.5 | 131.0 | U125 | 100.7 | 92.9 | 64.6 |
Yale
Against the spread
Season
1-1
Home
1-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
1-1
avg cover +0.2
Missed the spread in the last game
Over / under
Season
1-1
Home
0-1
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-1
avg vs total −4.8
Over in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | UCF | A | L 75–87 | +9.5 | L−2.5 | 152.5 | O162 | 109.0 | 126.5 | 68.8 |
| Nov 2 | Howard | H | W 72–62 | −7.0 | W+3.0 | 153.0 | U134 | 109.0 | 93.9 | 66.0 |
| Mar 17 | UNC Wilmington | H | L 67–68 | −4.5 | L−5.5 | 148.5 | U135 | 103.0 | 104.5 | 65.1 |
| Mar 15 | Penn | N | L 84–88 OT | −9.5 | L−13.5 | 144.0 | O172 | 116.1 | 121.7 | 72.3 |
| Mar 14 | Cornell | N | W 88–76 | −3.5 | W+8.5 | 163.5 | O164 | 144.9 | 125.2 | 60.7 |
| Mar 7 | Princeton | H | W 78–53 | −14.0 | W+11.0 | 137.0 | U131 | 117.2 | 79.6 | 66.6 |
| Feb 28 | Columbia | A | W 60–54 | −6.5 | L−0.5 | 146.0 | U114 | 98.9 | 89.0 | 60.7 |
| Feb 27 | Cornell | A | L 69–72 | −4.0 | L−7.0 | 164.0 | U141 | 107.4 | 112.1 | 64.3 |
| Feb 21 | Penn | H | W 74–70 | −8.5 | L−4.5 | 149.5 | U144 | 111.1 | 105.1 | 66.6 |
| Feb 14 | Harvard | A | W 76–75 OT | −5.5 | L−4.5 | 139.5 | O151 | 115.8 | 114.2 | 65.7 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homeApp StateYale
Efficiency
103.7
112.8
103.0
106.0
64.6
67.8
6.5
3.2
Shooting
43.9%
47.2%
50.0%
44.0%
25.9%
34.7%
63.9%
85.7%
34.0%
28.2%
Ball control & glass
21.0%
18.5%
13.5%
9.6%
41.4%
39.5%
37.7%
38.2%
14.3%
13.4%
18.8%
14.7%
Style
54.7%
39.5%
32.8%
34.0%
12.1%
15.0%
59.0%
46.0%
43.5%
21.4%
Roster
2.94
2.73
6'4.5"
6'5.2"
23.1%
36.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputApp State
Returning minutes: 23.1%Returning production: 17.5%
Lost
- Kasen Jennings 32.7 mpg, 15.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Alonzo Dodd 31.4 mpg, 13.8 ppg · transferred to East Texas A&M
- Luke Wilson 28.2 mpg, 10.7 ppg · transferred to Syracuse
- Jalen Tot 24.3 mpg, 9.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Michael Marcus Jr. 24.0 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to George Mason
- Jason Clarke Jr. 9.6 mpg, 2.5 ppg · transferred to IU Indy
Added
- Hermann Koffi from Stonehill · 34.3 mpg, 12.5 ppg last season
- Rrezon Elezaj from UConn · 0.1 mpg, 0.0 ppg last season
- Jonathan Moss no D1 minutes last season
- Ted Neal no D1 minutes last season
- Da'Mori Lytch no D1 minutes last season
- Jackson Love no D1 minutes last season
Returns 23% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Yale
Returning minutes: 36.8%Returning production: 33.4%
Lost
- Nick Townsend 32.4 mpg, 15.7 ppg · transferred to Stanford
- Isaac Celiscar 31.1 mpg, 13.2 ppg · transferred to Baylor
- Casey Simmons 26.6 mpg, 10.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Samson Aletan 24.2 mpg, 7.3 ppg · transferred to Providence
- Devon Arlington 13.7 mpg, 2.7 ppg · transferred to Stonehill
Added
- Tim Winkler no D1 minutes last season
- Chris Bolte no D1 minutes last season
- Jack Louridas no D1 minutes last season
- Connor May no D1 minutes last season
- Jonas Oware no D1 minutes last season
- Brady Wooley no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 37% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
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The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.