CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceTimmons Arena, Greenville, SC
Elon
Efficiency #228
2025-26: 14-18 · 6-13 conf
@
Furman
Efficiency #163
2025-26: 22-13 · 13-8 conf
Tue, Nov 24 · TBD
71.3
win 30%
Projected
77.5
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: FUR −6.2 · total 148.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Furman 67.3, Elon 68.0 → 67.0 possessions
−2.9
Furman offense vs Elon defense
+2.9
Elon offense vs Furman defense
+0.5
Projected total
148.8
Axis starts at 142 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Furman offense vs Elon defense
+2.9
Elon offense vs Furman defense
−0.5
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Furman by 6.2
6.2
Elon side ◂▸ Furman side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 148.7 against a projected 148.8, and the margin steps add to +6.3 against +6.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Furman.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Elon is the faster team (67.9, #205 of 365) and Furman the slower (66.4, #279). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
148.8
model
Projected team totals
71.3 / 77.5
Elon / Furman
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.0#209
Elon
67.3#265
Furman
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageFurman
Where Furman scores: shooting
Furman shoots an effective 54.8% (#43); Elon allows 54.0% (#300). Expect about 54.7%, 3.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.8 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageElon
Where Elon scores: ball control
Elon turns it over on 15.9% of possessions (#134); Furman forces turnovers on 13.7% of opponent possessions (#342). Expect about 14.3%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions.
ClashFurman
Style match: 3-point volume
Furman takes 46.5% of its shots from three; Elon lets opponents take 44.5% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.3% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Elon's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Elon at about 44.0% of its shots from three, Furman about 48.3%.
Elon has the ball
OffenseFurman allowsvs D1 avg
52.2% #137
50.2% #112
-0.0 pt/100
15.9% #134
13.7% #342
+3.0 pt/100
32.2% #116
28.2% #72
+0.1 pt/100
33.5% #222
28.9% #44
-0.5 pt/100
71.4% #225
—
-0.1 pt/100
Elon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.5 pts/100
Furman has the ball
OffenseElon allowsvs D1 avg
54.8% #43
54.0% #300
+4.8 pt/100
17.8% #259
16.4% #193
-0.4 pt/100
30.5% #180
33.5% #307
+0.9 pt/100
32.7% #246
34.6% #169
-0.2 pt/100
70.1% #269
—
-0.2 pt/100
Furman net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +5.0 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersElonoffense vsFurmandefense
Share of shots by zone
Elon shoots
44.9
3.1
9.2
42.8
Furman allows
37.0
5.5
15.9
41.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 58.0%#198 | 56.0%#86 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.5%#256 | 45.5%#314 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 29.9%#354 | 41.9%#297 | 38.0% |
| Three | 34.3%#154 | 32.3%#75 | 33.7% |
Furmanoffense vsElondefense
Share of shots by zone
Furman shoots
38.5
5.8
8.9
46.8
Elon allows
35.8
5.7
14.1
44.4
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.3%#66 | 61.8%#297 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 51.5%#8 | 42.7%#241 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 43.5%#28 | 35.1%#82 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.4%#204 | 36.5%#328 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersElon
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#186 of 365
Off reb %
32.2%
#116
Def reb %
66.5%
#307
Turnover %
15.9%
#134
Forced TO %
16.4%
#193
FT rate
33.5%
#222
FT allowed
34.6%
#169
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.9
Ball security+0.6
Forcing turnovers−0.2
Foul shots drawn−0.4
Foul shots allowed+0.2
Furman
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#227 of 365
Off reb %
30.5%
#180
Def reb %
71.8%
#72
Turnover %
17.8%
#259
Forced TO %
13.7%
#342
FT rate
32.7%
#246
FT allowed
28.9%
#44
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−2.1
Foul shots drawn−0.6
Foul shots allowed+1.6
Elon has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.2 (#186 of 365) to Furman’s −0.9 (#227).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Elon2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chandler Cuthrell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.2 | 19.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 51.9% | 25.5% | 3.3 | 72.9% | 40.7% | |
| 11 | Randall Pettus II | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-31 | 27.3 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 48.7% | 35.4% | 5.9 | 76.2% | 26.7% | |
| 0 | Bryson Cokley | G | So | 6'6" | 32-12 | 27.0 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 55.7% | 39.2% | 4.9 | 80.0% | 25.1% | |
| 12 | Isaac Harrell | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 25.8 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 56.3% | 35.7% | 3.5 | 72.1% | 15.4% | |
| 3 | Ja'Juan Carr | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-31 | 25.1 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 48.5% | 30.0% | 1.9 | 71.4% | 19.9% | |
| 6 | Kacper Klaczek | F | Sr | 6'8" | 24-22 | 28.0 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 61.0% | 44.9% | 2.9 | 64.2% | 23.1% | |
| 22 | Ned Hull | G | So | 6'3" | 32-0 | 17.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 53.2% | 35.8% | 3.0 | 86.7% | 15.7% | |
| 8 | DeMarco Johnson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 15.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 50.0% | 21.7% | 0.8 | 57.1% | 15.6% | |
| 5 | Caleb Middleton | C | So | 6'11" | 29-0 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 17.6% | |
| 33 | Bryson Spell | F | Sr | 6'9" | 23-1 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 83.3% | 17.4% | |
| 4 | Iker Garmendia | F | Fr | 6'9" | 15-0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 64.3% | 26.5% | |
| 13 | Savion Taylor | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 42.7% | |
| 25 | Alex Olander | F | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 14 | Alex Brabec | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Austin Williams | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Trey O'Neil | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Furman2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnston | F | Sr | 6'11" | 35-35 | 28.3 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 56.1% | 28.7% | 3.9 | 66.2% | 21.2% | |
| 4 | Ben Vander Wal | F | Sr | 6'7" | 34-31 | 27.9 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 66.2% | 22.2% | 0.3 | 43.5% | 14.9% | |
| 12 | Tom House | G | Sr | 6'7" | 33-17 | 25.2 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 47.4% | 31.5% | 5.0 | 84.3% | 21.0% | |
| 3 | Asa Thomas | G | So | 6'7" | 28-21 | 27.4 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 55.4% | 38.2% | 7.4 | 74.0% | 24.0% | |
| 2 | Eddrin Bronson | G | So | 6'4" | 34-7 | 19.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 47.4% | 32.3% | 2.7 | 74.0% | 20.3% | |
| 6 | Cole Bowser | G | Fr | 6'6" | 20-6 | 22.6 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 55.4% | 35.9% | 1.9 | 87.5% | 14.2% | |
| 0 | Abijah Franklin | G | Fr | 6'5" | 24-0 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 42.4% | 29.8% | 2.0 | 63.6% | 29.3% | |
| 8 | Collin O'Neal | G | Fr | 6'4" | 17-0 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 50.0% | 37.0% | 1.6 | 60.0% | 20.3% | |
| 15 | Owen Ritger | F | Fr | 6'9" | 17-0 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 52.1% | 20.0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 16.3% | |
| 5 | Mason Smith | F | So | 6'7" | 7-0 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 42.9% | 25.0% | 2.3 | 75.0% | 22.5% | |
| 11 | Gunnar Lewis | G | Fr | 5'10" | 3-0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 125.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | — | 12.8% | |
| 30 | Thomas Tillman | F | Sr | 6'6" | 5-1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 0.6 | 0.0% | 43.9% | |
| 77 | Davis Molnar | F | Jr | 6'6" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Elon2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chandler Cuthrell | F | Sr | 6'8" | 32-32 | 28.2 | 19.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 51.9% | 25.5% | 3.3 | 72.9% | 40.7% | |
| 11 | Randall Pettus II | G | Jr | 6'3" | 32-31 | 27.3 | 11.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 48.7% | 35.4% | 5.9 | 76.2% | 26.7% | |
| 0 | Bryson Cokley | G | So | 6'6" | 32-12 | 27.0 | 12.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 55.7% | 39.2% | 4.9 | 80.0% | 25.1% | |
| 12 | Isaac Harrell | F | Jr | 6'8" | 32-31 | 25.8 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 56.3% | 35.7% | 3.5 | 72.1% | 15.4% | |
| 3 | Ja'Juan Carr | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-31 | 25.1 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 48.5% | 30.0% | 1.9 | 71.4% | 19.9% | |
| 6 | Kacper Klaczek | F | Sr | 6'8" | 24-22 | 28.0 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 61.0% | 44.9% | 2.9 | 64.2% | 23.1% | |
| 22 | Ned Hull | G | So | 6'3" | 32-0 | 17.9 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 53.2% | 35.8% | 3.0 | 86.7% | 15.7% | |
| 8 | DeMarco Johnson | G | Fr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 15.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 50.0% | 21.7% | 0.8 | 57.1% | 15.6% | |
| 5 | Caleb Middleton | C | So | 6'11" | 29-0 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 55.6% | — | 0.0 | 66.7% | 17.6% | |
| 33 | Bryson Spell | F | Sr | 6'9" | 23-1 | 6.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 83.3% | 17.4% | |
| 4 | Iker Garmendia | F | Fr | 6'9" | 15-0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.7 | 64.3% | 26.5% | |
| 13 | Savion Taylor | G | Fr | 6'4" | 1-0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 42.7% | |
| 25 | Alex Olander | F | So | 6'4" | 2-0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 14 | Alex Brabec | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 10 | Austin Williams | G | Sr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 1 | Trey O'Neil | G | So | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Elon
Against the spread
Season
11-19
Home
3-11
Road
8-7
Last 10
2-8
avg cover −7.7
Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 0 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-14
Home
9-5
Road
7-8
Last 10
3-7
avg vs total −6.3
Under 4 straightOver in 3 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 6 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7 | William & Mary | N | L 62–72 | +5.5 | L−4.5 | 163.5 | U134 | 91.6 | 106.4 | 67.7 |
| Mar 3 | UNC Wilmington | H | L 57–76 | +5.0 | L−14.0 | 145.5 | U133 | 85.2 | 113.6 | 66.9 |
| Feb 28 | Monmouth | A | L 57–73 | +3.5 | L−12.5 | 153.0 | U130 | 90.3 | 115.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 26 | Towson | A | L 56–58 | +5.5 | W+3.5 | 144.0 | U114 | 90.9 | 94.1 | 61.6 |
| Feb 21 | NC A&T | H | L 82–102 | −8.0 | L−28.0 | 152.5 | O184 | 121.1 | 150.6 | 67.7 |
| Feb 14 | William & Mary | A | W 81–78 | +8.0 | W+11.0 | 165.5 | U159 | 113.8 | 109.6 | 71.2 |
| Feb 12 | UNC Wilmington | A | L 54–65 | +8.0 | L−3.0 | 149.5 | U119 | 89.7 | 108.0 | 60.2 |
| Feb 7 | Drexel | H | L 77–82 | −5.0 | L−10.0 | 138.0 | O159 | 113.9 | 121.3 | 67.6 |
| Feb 5 | Hampton | A | L 79–87 2OT | −1.5 | L−9.5 | 142.5 | O166 | 100.1 | 110.2 | 78.9 |
| Jan 31 | Stony Brook | H | L 68–72 | −5.5 | L−9.5 | 147.5 | U140 | 98.5 | 104.3 | 69.0 |
Furman
Against the spread
Season
15-15-2
Home
4-8-1
Road
7-5
Last 10
6-3-1
avg cover +1.9
Covered 2 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
16-15-1
Home
6-7
Road
6-5-1
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +2.4
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20 | #2UConn | N | L 71–82 | +21.0 | W+10.0 | 135.0 | O153 | 108.5 | 125.3 | 65.4 |
| Mar 9 | ETSU | N | W 76–61 | +1.0 | W+16.0 | 138.0 | U137 | 122.9 | 98.6 | 61.8 |
| Mar 8 | UNC Greensboro | N | W 81–75 | −6.0 | P0.0 | 148.5 | O156 | 123.4 | 114.3 | 65.6 |
| Mar 7 | Samford | N | W 86–81 | +1.5 | W+6.5 | 145.5 | O167 | 124.6 | 117.4 | 69.0 |
| Feb 28 | W Carolina | A | L 67–86 | −2.0 | L−21.0 | 148.0 | O153 | 105.4 | 135.3 | 63.6 |
| Feb 25 | The Citadel | H | W 72–51 | −15.5 | W+5.5 | 143.5 | U123 | 120.3 | 85.2 | 59.8 |
| Feb 21 | Wofford | A | W 76–67 | −1.5 | W+7.5 | 152.5 | U143 | 118.7 | 104.6 | 64.1 |
| Feb 18 | ETSU | H | L 69–78 | −1.5 | L−10.5 | 141.0 | O147 | 101.2 | 114.4 | 68.2 |
| Feb 14 | VMI | A | W 90–72 | −12.0 | W+6.0 | 146.5 | O162 | 126.8 | 101.4 | 71.0 |
| Feb 11 | Mercer | A | L 64–69 | +3.5 | L−1.5 | 151.5 | U133 | 96.1 | 103.6 | 66.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeElonFurman
Efficiency
109.8
108.6
112.7
107.9
68.0
67.3
—
—
Shooting
52.2%
54.8%
52.8%
58.8%
34.3%
33.4%
71.4%
70.1%
33.5%
32.7%
Ball control & glass
15.9%
17.8%
16.4%
13.7%
32.2%
30.5%
33.5%
28.2%
9.4%
11.3%
11.2%
10.6%
Style
43.2%
46.5%
44.1%
42.6%
11.6%
11.1%
54.6%
56.1%
33.3%
28.5%
Roster
2.96
2.85
6'5.8"
6'7.1"
—
74.9%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputElon
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Elon's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Furman
Returning minutes: 74.9%Returning production: 66.0%
Lost
- Alex Wilkins 29.7 mpg, 17.8 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
- Cooper Bowser 21.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg · transferred to Arkansas
Added
- Davis Molnar no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 75% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and last| Date | Season | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Dec 3 | 2025-26 | Furman 97 – 88 Elon |
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.