CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteHard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya, Cancun, MexicoCancun Challenge - Mayan Division
SE Louisiana
Efficiency #296
2025-26: 9-22 · 6-16 conf
vs
N Colorado
Efficiency #146
2025-26: 20-12 · 10-9 conf
Tue, Nov 24 · 12:30 PM ET
69.9
win 31%
Projected
75.6
win 69%
No line posted yet.
Model: UNCO −5.7 · total 145.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: N Colorado 69.1, SE Louisiana 67.1 → 67.8 possessions
−1.0
N Colorado offense vs SE Louisiana defense
+2.0
SE Louisiana offense vs N Colorado defense
−3.7
Projected total
145.5
Axis starts at 144 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
N Colorado offense vs SE Louisiana defense
+2.0
SE Louisiana offense vs N Colorado defense
+3.7
N Colorado by 5.7
5.7
SE Louisiana side ◂▸ N Colorado side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help N Colorado.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, N Colorado is the faster team (70.0, #92 of 365) and SE Louisiana the slower (65.6, #312). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
67.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.5
model
Projected team totals
69.9 / 75.6
SE Louisiana / N Colorado
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.1#282
SE Louisiana
69.1#115
N Colorado

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSE Louisiana
Where SE Louisiana struggles: shooting
SE Louisiana shoots an effective 46.7% (#343); N Colorado allows 50.1% (#106). Expect about 48.0%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.6 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageN Colorado
Where N Colorado scores: shooting
N Colorado shoots an effective 55.7% (#24); SE Louisiana allows 52.4% (#233). Expect about 54.4%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.5 points per 100 possessions.
GlassSE Louisiana
SE Louisiana gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.2% is worth roughly -2.6 points per 100 possessions against SE Louisiana's offense.
TurnoversSE Louisiana
SE Louisiana protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for SE Louisiana's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (SE Louisiana, N Colorado's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect SE Louisiana at about 36.6% of its shots from three, N Colorado about 40.0%.
SE Louisiana has the ball
OffenseN Colorado allowsvs D1 avg
46.7% #343
50.1% #106
-4.6 pt/100
18.4% #291
12.4% #363
+2.3 pt/100
28.6% #245
24.2% #6
-2.6 pt/100
40.3% #56
38.8% #280
+0.6 pt/100
68.4% #318
—
-0.4 pt/100
SE Louisiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.7 pts/100
N Colorado has the ball
OffenseSE Louisiana allowsvs D1 avg
55.7% #24
52.4% #233
+4.5 pt/100
15.4% #98
19.1% #46
-0.9 pt/100
27.2% #288
31.4% #225
-1.1 pt/100
27.5% #348
41.2% #314
+0.0 pt/100
75.8% #59
—
+0.3 pt/100
N Colorado net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
SE Louisianaoffense vsN Coloradodefense
Share of shots by zone
SE Louisiana shoots
N Colorado allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.7%#17156.7%#10758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.8%#30933.9%#4339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.1%#30946.7%#35738.0%
Three28.4%#36230.7%#2833.7%
N Coloradooffense vsSE Louisianadefense
Share of shots by zone
N Colorado shoots
SE Louisiana allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.7%#4259.1%#19558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.3%#9546.7%#32839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)48.3%#136.9%#12738.0%
Three35.0%#12136.0%#30133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
SE Louisiana
−0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#200 of 365
Off reb %
28.6%
#245
Def reb %
68.6%
#225
Turnover %
18.4%
#291
Forced TO %
19.1%
#46
FT rate
40.3%
#56
FT allowed
41.2%
#314
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security−1.1
Forcing turnovers+1.6
Foul shots drawn+1.4
Foul shots allowed−1.5
N Colorado
−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#328 of 365
Off reb %
27.2%
#288
Def reb %
75.8%
#6
Turnover %
15.4%
#98
Forced TO %
12.4%
#363
FT rate
27.5%
#348
FT allowed
38.8%
#280
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.0
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−2.9
Foul shots drawn−1.9
Foul shots allowed−0.9

SE Louisiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.5 (#200 of 365) to N Colorado’s −3.8 (#328).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

SE Louisiana2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
0Jeremy ElyzeeFSo6'7"31-3129.511.14.51.81.948.9%21.2%1.770.3%25.7%
23Isaiah GainesFSr6'8"31-3128.310.66.21.61.954.9%9.1%0.463.4%23.9%
1Makhi MylesFSo6'7"31-1821.07.73.60.60.950.5%34.3%3.382.8%22.7%
10Jaiden LawrenceGJr6'4"31-1820.35.12.40.60.545.9%29.9%3.566.7%17.2%
4CJ BookerPGSo5'10"30-2220.54.71.32.00.845.4%39.7%1.972.2%17.3%
8Peter HemschemeierGFr6'5"27-1220.36.41.61.91.640.7%27.5%4.473.1%27.2%
3Ethan PickettGSr6'5"31-2117.65.12.41.31.144.4%16.0%0.868.4%21.4%
2Jalen ForrestGJr6'4"28-017.27.92.60.61.044.0%26.5%2.478.8%29.6%
5Kyle EdisonGSo6'3"25-29.83.21.50.90.843.8%23.1%1.664.9%25.4%
6Ubong-Abasi EtimCSr6'9"31-07.41.21.50.20.251.5%—0.016.7%12.1%
32Garrett ShoemakerFFr6'9"24-07.11.91.40.10.451.5%29.4%0.735.7%20.5%
12Ahmed EssahatyGSr6'2"16-010.12.21.40.80.938.9%21.1%1.258.3%21.1%
7Seth JonesGJr6'1"8-019.87.32.81.02.341.7%27.9%5.480.0%30.3%
11Amir ChaneyPGFr5'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
9Cody Al-NaziatGFr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
SE LouisianaN Colorado
Efficiency
102.1
110.7
109.1
109.4
67.1
69.1
—
—
Shooting
46.7%
55.7%
49.4%
58.1%
28.4%
35.0%
68.4%
75.8%
40.3%
27.5%
Ball control & glass
18.4%
15.4%
19.1%
12.4%
28.6%
27.2%
31.4%
24.2%
10.1%
8.6%
9.7%
7.2%
Style
39.5%
41.5%
43.8%
47.9%
12.2%
8.2%
51.6%
53.3%
37.4%
26.0%
Roster
2.67
3.08
6'5.1"
6'5.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
SE Louisiana
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted SE Louisiana's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

N Colorado
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted N Colorado's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.