CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteT-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NVPlayers Era Sixteen

TCU

Efficiency #51

2025-26: 23-12 · 12-8 conf

Miami

Efficiency #30

2025-26: 26-9 · 14-6 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · 3:00 PM ET

73.1

win 43%

Projected

75.3

win 57%

No line posted yet.

Model: MIA −2.2 · total 148.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Miami 68.7, TCU 68.4 → 68.8 possessions

+1.1

Miami offense vs TCU defense

+0.6

TCU offense vs Miami defense

−1.6

Projected total

148.3

Axis starts at 147 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Miami offense vs TCU defense

+0.6

TCU offense vs Miami defense

+1.6

Miami by 2.2

2.2

TCU side ◂▸ Miami side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Miami.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, TCU is the faster team (69.4, #117 of 365) and Miami the slower (69.2, #137). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

148.3

model

Projected team totals

73.1 / 75.3

TCU / Miami

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.4#173

TCU

68.7#145

Miami

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageMiami

Where Miami scores: shooting

Miami shoots an effective 55.3% (#32); TCU allows 51.2% (#172). Expect about 53.6%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.2 points per 100 possessions.

GlassMiami

Miami owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.5% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for Miami's offense.

DefenseTCU

TCU's shot-blocking

TCU ranks #35 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.9% of Miami's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

TurnoversMiami

Miami turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.2% is worth roughly -1.8 points per 100 possessions against Miami's offense.

TCU has the ball

OffenseMiami allowsvs D1 avg

50.4% #221

51.7% #198

-0.4 pt/100

15.3% #87

18.2% #88

-0.1 pt/100

34.0% #67

25.9% #19

+0.2 pt/100

37.5% #112

29.5% #50

-0.3 pt/100

70.4% #257

—

-0.2 pt/100

TCU net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100

Miami has the ball

OffenseTCU allowsvs D1 avg

55.3% #32

51.2% #172

+3.2 pt/100

16.2% #150

19.6% #32

-1.8 pt/100

37.2% #14

29.1% #112

+2.5 pt/100

37.1% #125

30.5% #72

-0.2 pt/100

68.3% #320

—

-0.4 pt/100

Miami net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

TCUoffense vsMiamidefense

Share of shots by zone

TCU shoots

38.4

8.8

16.1

36.7

Miami allows

33.7

7.8

17.9

40.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.8%#204	59.8%#219	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	44.8%#68	44.3%#277	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.1%#286	37.3%#138	38.0%
Three	33.2%#220	35.8%#296	33.7%

Miamioffense vsTCUdefense

Share of shots by zone

Miami shoots

46.5

7.6

14.7

31.1

TCU allows

38.4

6.4

16.8

38.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.2%#34	60.3%#242	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	35.6%#275	35.0%#58	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	42.0%#54	39.2%#206	38.0%
Three	34.9%#127	33.5%#158	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

TCU

+6.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#10 of 365

Off reb %

34.0%

#67

Def reb %

70.9%

#112

Turnover %

15.3%

#87

Forced TO %

19.6%

#32

FT rate

37.5%

#112

FT allowed

30.5%

#72

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.2

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+1.0

Forcing turnovers+2.0

Foul shots drawn+0.6

Foul shots allowed+1.2

Miami

+7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#7 of 365

Off reb %

37.2%

#14

Def reb %

74.1%

#19

Turnover %

16.2%

#150

Forced TO %

18.2%

#88

FT rate

37.1%

#125

FT allowed

29.5%

#50

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.2

Defensive rebounding+1.5

Ball security+0.4

Forcing turnovers+1.0

Foul shots drawn+0.5

Foul shots allowed+1.5

Miami has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.2 (#7 of 365) to TCU’s +6.5 (#10).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

TCU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Brock Harding	G	Jr	6'0"	35-35	31.8	8.0	2.9	5.6	1.9	43.1%	28.4%	3.3	64.6%	19.4%
1	Jayden Pierre	G	Sr	6'0"	35-35	30.4	10.1	2.1	2.8	1.3	50.2%	35.1%	4.2	81.8%	20.7%
15	David Punch	F	So	6'7"	34-34	29.7	14.1	6.8	2.0	1.7	51.8%	23.9%	1.4	65.3%	28.3%
5	Micah Robinson	F	So	6'6"	35-13	26.9	10.9	4.7	1.7	1.3	46.9%	33.3%	3.9	75.9%	25.0%
24	Xavier Edmonds	F	Jr	6'8"	35-34	22.9	12.7	6.5	1.2	1.9	61.4%	43.6%	1.6	64.4%	30.3%
55	Tanner Toolson	G	Jr	6'5"	35-1	20.9	7.7	3.2	0.9	0.5	43.5%	29.1%	2.9	72.6%	23.1%
00	Jace Posey	G	So	6'5"	26-0	11.8	4.8	2.4	0.2	0.7	46.0%	15.4%	0.5	68.1%	26.2%
23	Vianney Salatchoum	C	Sr	6'10"	23-0	5.3	1.1	1.0	0.1	0.3	52.2%	—	0.0	66.7%	15.0%
7	Kayden Edwards	G	Fr	6'2"	13-0	6.8	3.5	0.7	0.6	0.4	57.9%	43.5%	1.8	25.0%	28.6%
8	RJ Jones	G	So	6'2"	8-0	7.1	2.9	0.5	0.9	0.4	55.0%	35.3%	2.1	50.0%	23.7%
6	Ashton Simmons	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	3.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.6	35.7%	25.0%	0.8	—	29.2%
32	Malick Diallo	C	So	6'9"	1-1	7.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	2.0	—	—	0.0	—	14.8%
33	Trey Stuart	G	Sr	6'2"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	22.6%
22	Adam Stewart	C	So	6'11"	4-0	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	13.8%
30	Drew McElroy	G	Jr	6'2"	3-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	18.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Miami2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Brent Blandat Saint Peter's	G	Sr	6'3"	29-29	33.1	13.9	5.0	1.5	1.0	51.6%	36.9%	7.4	78.3%	24.7%
7	Shelton Henderson	F	So	6'6"	35-35	31.3	13.8	4.9	2.1	1.8	58.7%	25.5%	1.5	57.6%	25.1%
0	DeSean Goodeat Robert Morris	F	Jr	6'8"	33-32	31.0	15.2	8.7	1.4	1.4	68.9%	57.1%	1.9	76.3%	23.8%
55	Acaden Lewisat Villanova	G	So	6'2"	33-33	30.5	12.2	3.0	5.3	2.2	49.6%	27.0%	3.0	58.3%	27.6%
5	Malik Reneau	F	Sr	6'9"	35-35	29.0	18.9	6.5	2.1	2.8	57.0%	34.7%	2.1	78.8%	36.2%
3	Nick Dornat Indiana	G	Sr	6'7"	30-12	23.2	8.1	2.3	0.3	0.7	57.3%	38.0%	5.3	87.0%	19.5%
2	Somto Cyrilat Georgia	C	Jr	6'11"	33-32	21.1	9.3	5.4	0.6	1.1	75.9%	—	0.0	57.8%	19.5%
35	Dante Allen	G	So	6'4"	30-18	23.8	6.6	2.8	2.2	1.0	50.6%	32.1%	2.6	58.3%	18.0%
6	Robert Miller IIIat LSU	F	Jr	6'10"	31-2	19.4	6.1	3.9	0.7	1.2	65.7%	0.0%	0.0	69.9%	17.1%
12	Quin Bergerat Bucknell	G	Sr	6'2"	30-8	16.6	3.1	1.4	0.7	0.9	44.2%	30.6%	2.4	71.4%	15.5%
13	L.J. Casonat Michigan	G	Jr	6'2"	28-0	18.6	8.4	1.9	2.4	1.7	60.6%	40.2%	2.9	70.9%	24.8%
4	Marcus Allen	F	Jr	6'7"	8-0	18.9	5.3	3.1	1.6	0.3	50.0%	38.5%	1.6	69.2%	14.9%
11	Caleb Gaskins	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
8	Christopher Birden Jr.	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Egor Ryzhov	C	Sr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Quin Berger (from Bucknell), Brent Bland (from Saint Peter's), L.J. Cason (from Michigan), Nick Dorn (from Indiana), DeSean Goode (from Robert Morris), Acaden Lewis (from Villanova), Robert Miller III (from LSU), Somto Cyril (from Georgia)

TCU2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Brock Harding	G	Jr	6'0"	35-35	31.8	8.0	2.9	5.6	1.9	43.1%	28.4%	3.3	64.6%	19.4%
1	Jayden Pierre	G	Sr	6'0"	35-35	30.4	10.1	2.1	2.8	1.3	50.2%	35.1%	4.2	81.8%	20.7%
15	David Punch	F	So	6'7"	34-34	29.7	14.1	6.8	2.0	1.7	51.8%	23.9%	1.4	65.3%	28.3%
5	Micah Robinson	F	So	6'6"	35-13	26.9	10.9	4.7	1.7	1.3	46.9%	33.3%	3.9	75.9%	25.0%
24	Xavier Edmonds	F	Jr	6'8"	35-34	22.9	12.7	6.5	1.2	1.9	61.4%	43.6%	1.6	64.4%	30.3%
55	Tanner Toolson	G	Jr	6'5"	35-1	20.9	7.7	3.2	0.9	0.5	43.5%	29.1%	2.9	72.6%	23.1%
00	Jace Posey	G	So	6'5"	26-0	11.8	4.8	2.4	0.2	0.7	46.0%	15.4%	0.5	68.1%	26.2%
23	Vianney Salatchoum	C	Sr	6'10"	23-0	5.3	1.1	1.0	0.1	0.3	52.2%	—	0.0	66.7%	15.0%
7	Kayden Edwards	G	Fr	6'2"	13-0	6.8	3.5	0.7	0.6	0.4	57.9%	43.5%	1.8	25.0%	28.6%
8	RJ Jones	G	So	6'2"	8-0	7.1	2.9	0.5	0.9	0.4	55.0%	35.3%	2.1	50.0%	23.7%
6	Ashton Simmons	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	3.8	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.6	35.7%	25.0%	0.8	—	29.2%
32	Malick Diallo	C	So	6'9"	1-1	7.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	2.0	—	—	0.0	—	14.8%
33	Trey Stuart	G	Sr	6'2"	5-0	1.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	22.6%
22	Adam Stewart	C	So	6'11"	4-0	1.0	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	13.8%
30	Drew McElroy	G	Jr	6'2"	3-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	18.5%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

TCU

Against the spread

Season

19-14-2

Home

9-10

Road

7-3

Last 10

6-2-2

avg cover +1.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 6 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push

Over / under

Season

15-20

Home

8-11

Road

4-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −1.9

Under 2 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 21	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	L 58–81	+12.0	L−11.0	140.5	U139	83.6	116.8	69.3
Mar 19	#8Ohio StateAdjEM #31	N	W 66–64	+2.0	W+4.0	146.0	U130	105.7	102.5	62.4
Mar 12	#14KansasAdjEM #25	N	L 73–78	+5.0	P0.0	146.5	O151	97.9	104.6	74.6
Mar 11	Oklahoma StAdjEM #89	N	W 95–88	−7.0	P0.0	158.0	O183	137.8	127.6	69.0
Mar 7	CincinnatiAdjEM #52	H	W 73–63	−2.5	W+7.5	139.5	U136	115.1	99.3	63.4
Mar 3	#10Texas TechAdjEM #21	A	W 73–65	+8.0	W+16.0	148.5	U138	114.1	101.6	64.0
Feb 28	Kansas StAdjEM #128	A	W 77–68	−3.0	W+6.0	159.5	U145	106.8	94.3	72.1
Feb 24	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 90–78	−6.5	W+5.5	149.0	O168	120.1	104.1	75.0
Feb 21	West VirginiaAdjEM #58	H	W 60–54	−4.5	W+1.5	133.5	U114	99.6	89.6	60.3
Feb 17	UCFAdjEM #70	A	L 71–82	−1.0	L−12.0	155.0	U153	99.8	115.2	71.2

Miami

Against the spread

Season

19-15-1

Home

8-9-1

Road

8-2

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

22-13

Home

13-5

Road

6-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +1.1

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#2PurdueAdjEM #9	N	L 69–79	+8.0	L−2.0	146.5	O148	105.2	120.4	65.6
Mar 20	#10MissouriAdjEM #67	N	W 80–66	−1.0	W+13.0	145.5	O146	119.1	98.3	67.2
Mar 13	#10VirginiaAdjEM #15	N	L 62–84	+3.5	L−18.5	145.0	O146	99.3	134.6	62.4
Mar 12	#24LouisvilleAdjEM #14	N	W 78–73	+1.5	W+6.5	153.5	U151	114.0	106.7	68.4
Mar 7	LouisvilleAdjEM #14	H	L 89–92	−1.5	L−4.5	155.5	O181	138.1	142.7	64.5
Mar 4	SMUAdjEM #44	A	W 77–69	+1.5	W+9.5	156.5	U146	111.0	99.4	69.4
Feb 28	Boston CollegeAdjEM #187	H	W 76–54	−16.0	W+6.0	144.5	U130	117.6	83.6	64.6
Feb 24	Florida StAdjEM #74	A	W 83–73	−2.0	W+8.0	153.5	O156	117.2	103.1	70.8
Feb 21	#14VirginiaAdjEM #15	A	L 83–86	+7.5	W+4.5	146.5	O169	128.1	132.7	64.8
Feb 17	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	H	W 67–66	−8.5	L−7.5	148.0	U133	106.7	105.1	62.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

TCUMiami

Efficiency

111.5

115.9

101.9

103.2

68.4

68.7

—

Shooting

50.4%

55.3%

50.8%

56.7%

33.2%

34.9%

70.4%

68.3%

37.5%

37.1%

Ball control & glass

15.3%

16.2%

19.6%

18.2%

34.0%

37.2%

29.1%

25.9%

8.7%

9.7%

9.8%

10.2%

Style

36.8%

31.9%

45.4%

51.9%

17.2%

14.2%

57.3%

54.4%

30.5%

25.0%

Roster

2.79

3.04

6'4.1"

6'5.9"

88.6%

42.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

TCU

Returning minutes: 88.6%Returning production: 90.1%

Lost

Liutauras Lelevicius 23.0 mpg, 7.8 ppg · transferred to Clemson

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 89% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Miami

Returning minutes: 42.5%Returning production: 45.1%

Lost

Tre Donaldson 34.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ernest Udeh Jr. 26.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tru Washington 24.3 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Timotej Malovec 14.1 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Noam Dovrat 7.3 mpg, 2.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Salih Altuntas 7.1 mpg, 1.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Brent Bland from Saint Peter's · 33.1 mpg, 13.9 ppg last season
DeSean Goode from Robert Morris · 31.0 mpg, 15.2 ppg last season
Acaden Lewis from Villanova · 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg last season
Nick Dorn from Indiana · 21.8 mpg, 7.6 ppg last season
Somto Cyril from Georgia · 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg last season
Robert Miller III from LSU · 18.8 mpg, 5.9 ppg last season

Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.