CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceAtlantic Union Bank Center, Harrisonburg, VA

Charleston So

Efficiency #220

2025-26: 15-17 · 6-11 conf

James Madison

Efficiency #206

2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · TBD

74.6

win 35%

Projected

79.1

win 65%

No line posted yet.

Model: JMU −4.6 · total 153.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: James Madison 67.4, Charleston So 71.1 → 70.2 possessions

+4.1

James Madison offense vs Charleston So defense

+0.9

Charleston So offense vs James Madison defense

+0.4

Projected total

153.7

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

James Madison offense vs Charleston So defense

+0.9

Charleston So offense vs James Madison defense

−0.4

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.0

James Madison by 4.6

4.6

Charleston So side ◂▸ James Madison side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 153.6 against a projected 153.7, and the margin steps add to +4.5 against +4.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help James Madison.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Charleston So is the faster team (73.2, #10 of 365) and James Madison the slower (67.0, #242). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.2

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.7

model

Projected team totals

74.6 / 79.1

Charleston So / James Madison

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

71.1#13

Charleston So

67.4#259

James Madison

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

James Madison averages 67.0 possessions per 40, Charleston So 73.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageJames Madison

Where James Madison scores: ball control

James Madison turns it over on 17.3% of possessions (#226); Charleston So forces turnovers on 12.8% of opponent possessions (#361). Expect about 14.5%, 2.3 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageCharleston So

Where Charleston So scores: ball control

Charleston So turns it over on 18.5% of possessions (#298); James Madison forces turnovers on 12.8% of opponent possessions (#360). Expect about 15.2%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions.

Charleston So has the ball

OffenseJames Madison allowsvs D1 avg

54.1% #66

49.0% #66

+0.6 pt/100

18.5% #298

12.8% #360

+1.9 pt/100

29.4% #223

29.5% #134

-0.7 pt/100

30.5% #296

40.8% #310

+0.2 pt/100

64.8% #360

—

-0.7 pt/100

Charleston So net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.3 pts/100

James Madison has the ball

OffenseCharleston So allowsvs D1 avg

53.1% #97

46.9% #21

-1.6 pt/100

17.3% #226

12.8% #361

+2.8 pt/100

30.6% #175

30.3% #174

+0.1 pt/100

35.9% #153

43.3% #341

+0.7 pt/100

70.3% #263

—

-0.2 pt/100

James Madison net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Charleston Sooffense vsJames Madisondefense

Share of shots by zone

Charleston So shoots

40.6

3.6

6.5

49.3

James Madison allows

37.1

6.6

18.3

38.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.1%#193	56.6%#103	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	49.2%#13	37.6%#128	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.4%#256	38.5%#182	38.0%
Three	35.6%#78	32.7%#101	33.7%

James Madisonoffense vsCharleston Sodefense

Share of shots by zone

James Madison shoots

40.6

6.7

11.1

41.6

Charleston So allows

39.3

9.6

20.4

30.7

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.1%#91	51.7%#14	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	42.1%#118	44.2%#275	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	30.2%#352	36.6%#122	38.0%
Three	35.4%#94	31.9%#58	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Charleston So

−7.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#360 of 365

Off reb %

29.4%

#223

Def reb %

69.7%

#174

Turnover %

18.5%

#298

Forced TO %

12.8%

#361

FT rate

30.5%

#296

FT allowed

43.3%

#341

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security−1.2

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn−1.2

Foul shots allowed−2.1

James Madison

−3.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#327 of 365

Off reb %

30.6%

#175

Def reb %

70.5%

#134

Turnover %

17.3%

#226

Forced TO %

12.8%

#360

FT rate

35.9%

#153

FT allowed

40.8%

#310

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.1

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security−0.4

Forcing turnovers−2.7

Foul shots drawn+0.2

Foul shots allowed−1.4

James Madison has more extra scoring chances per game: −3.8 (#327 of 365) to Charleston So’s −7.3 (#360).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Charleston So2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Charleston So's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	A'lahn Sumler	G	Jr	6'4"	28-18	30.4	18.9	4.8	3.8	2.5	55.4%	39.6%	5.3	65.4%	34.0%
12	Jesse Hafemeister	F	Sr	6'5"	32-30	26.3	12.7	5.3	1.0	1.4	58.5%	39.0%	5.8	66.7%	24.9%
11	Brycen Blaine	G	Jr	6'5"	25-7	28.0	17.2	7.2	3.1	3.2	51.0%	34.6%	8.7	78.3%	36.6%
5	Jacob Taylor	G	Fr	6'3"	30-24	20.9	5.2	2.2	1.1	1.0	53.3%	36.1%	2.0	74.4%	14.7%
8	Luke Williams	G	Sr	6'0"	20-18	31.1	10.6	3.0	4.4	1.2	56.8%	39.6%	5.0	64.5%	18.0%
7	Nate Brafford	F	Sr	6'9"	32-12	19.3	5.2	3.3	1.2	0.8	54.3%	36.0%	3.1	60.7%	15.4%
23	Reis Jones	F	Sr	6'10"	32-15	18.4	6.6	5.2	1.0	1.3	58.9%	—	0.0	54.1%	20.6%
34	Lase Olalere	F	So	6'10"	32-17	15.6	4.6	3.9	0.7	1.2	66.3%	—	0.0	44.4%	17.1%
0	Armari Carraway	G	Jr	6'0"	24-14	17.0	6.7	1.4	1.1	0.9	48.0%	32.8%	5.7	69.0%	23.8%
2	Jaquias Franklin	G	Sr	6'1"	24-3	14.6	3.8	1.5	2.6	1.3	48.8%	29.6%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Trent Coleman	F	Sr	6'7"	24-1	10.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.1	60.7%	40.0%	1.3	71.9%	15.1%
22	Devin Brafford	F	So	7'1"	19-1	7.3	2.5	2.5	0.5	0.7	52.9%	20.0%	0.8	52.6%	22.4%
24	Easton Hupp	G	Fr	6'4"	4-0	5.5	3.5	0.8	0.0	1.0	42.9%	22.2%	2.3	100.0%	42.7%
10	AJ Gladieux	G	Fr	6'2"	4-0	4.5	1.5	0.8	0.8	0.5	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	16.3%
6	Anthony Gause	G	So	6'3"	1-0	5.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	19.9%
13	Kaleb Lofton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

James Madison2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Cliff Davis	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	31.3	15.6	3.1	1.7	1.2	55.1%	37.8%	7.9	87.1%	27.5%
2	Bradley Douglas	G	Sr	6'1"	32-18	27.6	12.1	2.0	3.5	2.3	50.2%	35.6%	4.7	73.3%	29.2%
3	Eddie Ricks III	F	Jr	6'7"	32-20	26.8	7.1	5.6	1.6	0.9	53.8%	27.8%	1.7	78.7%	15.3%
13	Preston Fowler	F	Fr	6'8"	33-14	23.1	6.2	4.6	0.9	0.5	49.1%	29.8%	3.7	72.3%	16.9%
33	Gabe Newhof	F	Sr	6'9"	33-33	18.9	8.1	3.7	0.3	0.8	61.3%	—	0.0	53.5%	23.9%
0	Christian Brown	F	Fr	6'8"	33-0	13.3	3.0	3.8	0.4	0.9	57.0%	33.3%	0.1	56.8%	15.7%
12	Kose Egbule	G	Sr	6'2"	22-15	16.2	3.7	2.0	1.8	1.4	41.5%	31.4%	1.6	69.7%	20.0%
1	Paul Jones III	G	So	6'4"	20-0	11.2	2.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	41.2%	29.5%	2.2	64.3%	20.2%
11	Paul Lewis	G	Jr	6'2"	14-1	11.8	2.5	0.9	1.8	0.7	28.6%	25.0%	1.1	78.6%	20.8%
5	Justin Taylor	G	Sr	6'6"	18-1	7.7	1.0	0.6	0.2	0.2	45.5%	66.7%	0.2	57.1%	9.0%
23	Ike Cornish	G	Sr	6'6"	6-0	11.0	3.5	2.3	0.7	1.0	56.7%	35.7%	2.3	44.4%	23.5%
4	Chance Lundy	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Josh Stephen	G	Sr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Charleston So2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Charleston So's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	A'lahn Sumler	G	Jr	6'4"	28-18	30.4	18.9	4.8	3.8	2.5	55.4%	39.6%	5.3	65.4%	34.0%
12	Jesse Hafemeister	F	Sr	6'5"	32-30	26.3	12.7	5.3	1.0	1.4	58.5%	39.0%	5.8	66.7%	24.9%
11	Brycen Blaine	G	Jr	6'5"	25-7	28.0	17.2	7.2	3.1	3.2	51.0%	34.6%	8.7	78.3%	36.6%
5	Jacob Taylor	G	Fr	6'3"	30-24	20.9	5.2	2.2	1.1	1.0	53.3%	36.1%	2.0	74.4%	14.7%
8	Luke Williams	G	Sr	6'0"	20-18	31.1	10.6	3.0	4.4	1.2	56.8%	39.6%	5.0	64.5%	18.0%
7	Nate Brafford	F	Sr	6'9"	32-12	19.3	5.2	3.3	1.2	0.8	54.3%	36.0%	3.1	60.7%	15.4%
23	Reis Jones	F	Sr	6'10"	32-15	18.4	6.6	5.2	1.0	1.3	58.9%	—	0.0	54.1%	20.6%
34	Lase Olalere	F	So	6'10"	32-17	15.6	4.6	3.9	0.7	1.2	66.3%	—	0.0	44.4%	17.1%
0	Armari Carraway	G	Jr	6'0"	24-14	17.0	6.7	1.4	1.1	0.9	48.0%	32.8%	5.7	69.0%	23.8%
2	Jaquias Franklin	G	Sr	6'1"	24-3	14.6	3.8	1.5	2.6	1.3	48.8%	29.6%	2.3	81.8%	18.5%
4	Trent Coleman	F	Sr	6'7"	24-1	10.9	3.8	2.5	0.3	0.1	60.7%	40.0%	1.3	71.9%	15.1%
22	Devin Brafford	F	So	7'1"	19-1	7.3	2.5	2.5	0.5	0.7	52.9%	20.0%	0.8	52.6%	22.4%
24	Easton Hupp	G	Fr	6'4"	4-0	5.5	3.5	0.8	0.0	1.0	42.9%	22.2%	2.3	100.0%	42.7%
10	AJ Gladieux	G	Fr	6'2"	4-0	4.5	1.5	0.8	0.8	0.5	100.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	16.3%
6	Anthony Gause	G	So	6'3"	1-0	5.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	50.0%	—	0.0	—	19.9%
13	Kaleb Lofton	G	Jr	6'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Charleston So

Against the spread

Season

14-15

Home

6-5

Road

7-9

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −0.8

Covered 3 straightCovered 1 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-10

Home

8-3

Road

9-7

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +8.1

Over 4 straightOver in 3 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 6	WinthropAdjEM #116	N	L 81–86	+5.5	W+0.5	163.5	O167	104.8	111.2	77.3
Feb 28	UNC AshevilleAdjEM #226	A	W 92–75	+4.0	W+21.0	149.5	O167	129.9	105.9	70.8
Feb 26	WinthropAdjEM #116	H	W 86–84	+8.0	W+10.0	164.0	O170	107.4	104.9	80.1
Feb 21	LongwoodAdjEM #248	H	L 96–107 2OT	−2.5	L−13.5	154.0	O203	112.9	125.8	85.0
Feb 17	Gardner-WebbAdjEM #363	H	W 75–66	−17.5	L−8.5	160.5	U141	100.9	88.8	74.4
Feb 14	RadfordAdjEM #245	A	L 80–90	+4.5	L−5.5	162.0	O170	103.8	116.7	77.1
Feb 12	PresbyterianAdjEM #252	H	W 84–67	−1.5	W+15.5	146.5	O151	124.5	99.3	67.5
Feb 7	SC UpstateAdjEM #284	A	L 94–100 OT	−1.0	L−7.0	151.5	O194	122.1	129.9	77.0
Feb 4	High PointAdjEM #50	A	L 55–80	+14.0	L−11.0	162.5	U135	78.1	113.6	70.4
Jan 29	RadfordAdjEM #245	H	L 75–84	−1.0	L−10.0	162.5	U159	95.7	107.2	78.4

James Madison

Against the spread

Season

13-19

Home

5-9

Road

6-9

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.6

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

15-17

Home

4-10

Road

8-7

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +2.2

Over 2 straightOver in 4 of 8 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	Southern MissAdjEM #218	N	L 80–86	−2.0	L−8.0	143.5	O166	111.1	119.4	72.0
Mar 4	LouisianaAdjEM #318	N	W 87–72	−6.5	W+8.5	135.0	O159	122.3	101.2	71.2
Feb 27	CoastalAdjEM #241	H	L 68–69	−6.0	L−7.0	142.0	U137	107.0	108.6	63.5
Feb 25	GA SouthernAdjEM #231	H	W 82–66	−5.5	W+10.5	153.5	U148	116.4	93.7	70.4
Feb 21	Georgia StAdjEM #310	A	W 80–65	−2.5	W+12.5	142.5	O145	119.4	97.0	67.0
Feb 18	CoastalAdjEM #241	A	W 67–65	−1.0	W+1.0	141.5	U132	102.2	99.1	65.6
Feb 14	App StateAdjEM #180	H	W 69–58	+1.5	W+12.5	135.0	U127	112.7	94.7	61.2
Feb 12	Georgia StAdjEM #310	H	W 81–79 OT	−6.0	L−4.0	144.0	O160	109.5	106.8	74.0
Feb 7	ToledoAdjEM #115	H	W 73–71	+1.0	W+3.0	152.0	U144	109.6	106.6	66.6
Feb 4	LouisianaAdjEM #318	H	L 61–64	−9.5	L−12.5	132.0	U125	107.7	113.0	56.6

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Charleston SoJames Madison

Efficiency

106.9

109.2

109.1

110.7

71.1

67.4

—

Shooting

54.1%

53.1%

54.6%

53.2%

35.6%

35.4%

64.8%

70.3%

30.5%

35.9%

Ball control & glass

18.5%

17.3%

12.8%

29.4%

30.6%

30.3%

29.5%

10.6%

9.5%

10.0%

11.1%

Style

49.5%

42.5%

40.6%

43.8%

11.0%

13.9%

54.9%

48.3%

39.5%

34.8%

Roster

3.20

3.09

6'5.1"

6'4.9"

—

83.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Charleston So

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Charleston So's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

James Madison

Returning minutes: 83.4%Returning production: 78.2%

Lost

Justin McBride 25.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
Elijah Wilborn 8.0 mpg, 2.2 ppg · transferred to Merrimack

Added

Josh Stephen no D1 minutes last season
Chance Lundy no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.