CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFinneran Pavilion, Villanova, PA

Coppin St

Efficiency #364

2025-26: 7-24 · 5-9 conf

Villanova

Efficiency #40

2025-26: 24-9 · 15-6 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · TBD

60.9

win 2%

Projected

84.6

win 98%

No line posted yet.

Model: VILL −23.7 · total 145.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Villanova 66.8, Coppin St 69.1 → 67.6 possessions

−1.6

Villanova offense vs Coppin St defense

+9.4

Coppin St offense vs Villanova defense

−10.5

Projected total

145.5

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Villanova offense vs Coppin St defense

+9.4

Coppin St offense vs Villanova defense

+10.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Villanova by 23.7

23.7

Coppin St side ◂▸ Villanova side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +23.8 against +23.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Villanova.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Coppin St is the faster team (69.0, #144 of 365) and Villanova the slower (66.5, #269). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.5

model

Projected team totals

60.9 / 84.6

Coppin St / Villanova

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.1#119

Coppin St

66.8#302

Villanova

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageCoppin St

Where Coppin St struggles: ball control

Coppin St turns it over on 22.3% of possessions (#363); Villanova forces turnovers on 18.6% of opponent possessions (#69). Expect about 21.1%, 4.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -5.3 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageVillanova

Where Villanova scores: shooting

Villanova shoots an effective 53.8% (#74); Coppin St allows 55.4% (#339). Expect about 54.8%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.1 points per 100 possessions.

ClashVillanova

Style match: ball movement

Villanova assists on 56.8% of its made baskets; Coppin St allows assists on 62.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.8% — both habits push the same way.

ClashVillanova

Style match: 3-point volume

Villanova takes 45.7% of its shots from three; Coppin St lets opponents take 43.2% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 46.9% — both habits push the same way.

GlassVillanova

Villanova owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 33.8% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for Villanova's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Coppin St, Coppin St's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Coppin St at about 34.3% of its shots from three, Villanova about 46.9%.

Coppin St has the ball

OffenseVillanova allowsvs D1 avg

45.9% #350

51.4% #181

-4.4 pt/100

22.3% #363

18.6% #69

-5.3 pt/100

30.4% #183

31.8% #246

+0.4 pt/100

38.5% #90

30.0% #59

-0.2 pt/100

67.2% #342

—

-0.5 pt/100

Coppin St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -9.8 pts/100

Villanova has the ball

OffenseCoppin St allowsvs D1 avg

53.8% #74

55.4% #339

+5.1 pt/100

15.0% #66

17.5% #118

+0.6 pt/100

32.2% #118

34.8% #333

+2.1 pt/100

30.9% #284

42.9% #339

+0.3 pt/100

68.9% #302

—

-0.3 pt/100

Villanova net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Coppin Stoffense vsVillanovadefense

Share of shots by zone

Coppin St shoots

40.8

4.1

19.7

35.4

Villanova allows

37.3

6.9

19.3

36.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#336	60.9%#267	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	28.1%#357	38.8%#155	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	29.7%#356	40.0%#243	38.0%
Three	30.7%#326	33.4%#148	33.7%

Villanovaoffense vsCoppin Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Villanova shoots

34.9

6.0

13.6

45.6

Coppin St allows

38.8

3.0

14.9

43.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.6%#81	60.1%#231	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	43.5%#91	46.5%#327	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.4%#280	35.5%#91	38.0%
Three	35.7%#77	38.3%#360	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Coppin St

−5.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#353 of 365

Off reb %

30.4%

#183

Def reb %

65.2%

#333

Turnover %

22.3%

#363

Forced TO %

17.5%

#118

FT rate

38.5%

#90

FT allowed

42.9%

#339

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding0.0

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security−3.8

Forcing turnovers+0.6

Foul shots drawn+0.9

Foul shots allowed−2.0

Villanova

+3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#53 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#118

Def reb %

68.2%

#246

Turnover %

15.0%

#66

Forced TO %

18.6%

#69

FT rate

30.9%

#284

FT allowed

30.0%

#59

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.4

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers+1.3

Foul shots drawn−1.0

Foul shots allowed+1.3

Villanova has more extra scoring chances per game: +3.0 (#53 of 365) to Coppin St’s −5.6 (#353).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Coppin St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Hassan Perkins	G	Sr	6'0"	31-18	22.6	6.6	1.5	2.9	1.5	49.4%	37.2%	2.5	72.9%	19.5%
7	Khali Horton	F	Jr	6'8"	31-24	19.8	7.4	2.1	0.9	0.9	46.5%	36.2%	4.1	72.9%	24.2%
4	Hussain Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	31-7	19.8	7.3	2.4	0.8	1.0	42.8%	26.3%	4.4	71.7%	25.9%
11	Torrin Andrews	G	Sr	6'4"	31-12	19.1	5.3	1.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	31.7%	2.6	78.0%	20.4%
14	Jamari Piercy	G	Jr	6'5"	31-11	18.3	6.8	2.3	0.8	1.5	47.9%	17.4%	1.5	47.4%	27.0%
6	Demariontay Hall	F	Sr	6'7"	22-21	22.0	10.6	5.4	0.5	2.1	52.4%	0.0%	0.1	55.0%	31.2%
33	Tyler Koenig	F	Jr	6'9"	28-21	16.9	5.3	3.8	0.4	1.0	49.1%	0.0%	0.0	73.6%	20.1%
24	Taj Thweatt	F	Sr	6'7"	23-3	17.8	6.0	4.3	0.4	1.3	47.4%	38.3%	2.0	80.6%	22.7%
0	Baasil Saunders	G	Jr	6'4"	26-16	15.5	3.2	1.9	0.7	1.0	41.8%	18.8%	0.6	63.2%	17.0%
21	Nelson Lamizana	F	Fr	6'9"	17-5	19.2	6.6	3.0	0.9	1.9	47.7%	26.1%	1.4	87.5%	23.9%
10	Camaren Sparrow	G	Jr	6'4"	16-3	19.2	5.7	3.8	1.5	1.8	42.0%	35.7%	0.9	65.1%	23.5%
23	Daveyon Lydner	G	Fr	6'4"	23-3	12.7	2.3	0.9	1.6	0.7	24.6%	17.6%	0.7	68.8%	18.2%
2	Favour Aire	C	Sr	6'11"	21-1	9.1	2.8	2.0	0.4	1.0	51.0%	41.7%	0.6	83.3%	22.6%
12	Chris Morgan	F	Sr	6'9"	13-10	13.5	4.5	3.0	0.6	1.0	38.5%	0.0%	0.2	40.0%	28.9%
3	Josiah Brown	G	So	6'5"	11-0	6.5	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.2	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	12.0%
22	Elijah Taylor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Macahi Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Villanova2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Tyler Perkins	G	Jr	6'4"	33-33	29.8	13.7	5.4	1.6	0.8	53.2%	36.9%	5.4	74.5%	26.3%
2	Bryce Lindsay	G	So	6'3"	33-31	28.5	12.3	2.1	2.1	1.2	49.6%	35.6%	6.6	77.1%	27.1%
33	Matt Hodge	F	Fr	6'8"	29-29	27.6	9.2	3.6	0.7	0.7	57.2%	36.8%	4.7	65.2%	18.9%
7	Malachi Palmer	G	So	6'6"	33-4	18.3	4.6	1.7	0.6	0.5	58.6%	35.9%	2.4	76.2%	14.0%
17	Braden Pierce	C	So	7'0"	30-1	6.5	1.2	0.9	0.5	0.3	66.7%	—	0.0	60.0%	11.0%
0	Chris Jeffrey	G	Fr	6'3"	22-0	8.3	3.0	1.0	1.0	0.2	54.3%	35.7%	0.6	80.0%	20.2%
6	Tafara Gapare	F	Sr	6'9"	9-0	16.3	2.9	2.9	0.4	0.7	31.5%	21.4%	1.6	81.8%	15.8%
1	Zion Stanford	G	Jr	6'6"	10-0	5.0	1.3	0.5	0.4	0.7	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	75.0%	23.4%
14	Wade Chiddick	G	Sr	6'4"	1-0	3.0	3.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	75.0%	38.5%
15	Malcolm Flaggs	G	So	6'6"	1-0	2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	30.2%
21	Nico Onyekwere	C	Fr	7'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Coppin St2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Hassan Perkins	G	Sr	6'0"	31-18	22.6	6.6	1.5	2.9	1.5	49.4%	37.2%	2.5	72.9%	19.5%
7	Khali Horton	F	Jr	6'8"	31-24	19.8	7.4	2.1	0.9	0.9	46.5%	36.2%	4.1	72.9%	24.2%
4	Hussain Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	31-7	19.8	7.3	2.4	0.8	1.0	42.8%	26.3%	4.4	71.7%	25.9%
11	Torrin Andrews	G	Sr	6'4"	31-12	19.1	5.3	1.5	1.6	1.8	49.6%	31.7%	2.6	78.0%	20.4%
14	Jamari Piercy	G	Jr	6'5"	31-11	18.3	6.8	2.3	0.8	1.5	47.9%	17.4%	1.5	47.4%	27.0%
6	Demariontay Hall	F	Sr	6'7"	22-21	22.0	10.6	5.4	0.5	2.1	52.4%	0.0%	0.1	55.0%	31.2%
33	Tyler Koenig	F	Jr	6'9"	28-21	16.9	5.3	3.8	0.4	1.0	49.1%	0.0%	0.0	73.6%	20.1%
24	Taj Thweatt	F	Sr	6'7"	23-3	17.8	6.0	4.3	0.4	1.3	47.4%	38.3%	2.0	80.6%	22.7%
0	Baasil Saunders	G	Jr	6'4"	26-16	15.5	3.2	1.9	0.7	1.0	41.8%	18.8%	0.6	63.2%	17.0%
21	Nelson Lamizana	F	Fr	6'9"	17-5	19.2	6.6	3.0	0.9	1.9	47.7%	26.1%	1.4	87.5%	23.9%
10	Camaren Sparrow	G	Jr	6'4"	16-3	19.2	5.7	3.8	1.5	1.8	42.0%	35.7%	0.9	65.1%	23.5%
23	Daveyon Lydner	G	Fr	6'4"	23-3	12.7	2.3	0.9	1.6	0.7	24.6%	17.6%	0.7	68.8%	18.2%
2	Favour Aire	C	Sr	6'11"	21-1	9.1	2.8	2.0	0.4	1.0	51.0%	41.7%	0.6	83.3%	22.6%
12	Chris Morgan	F	Sr	6'9"	13-10	13.5	4.5	3.0	0.6	1.0	38.5%	0.0%	0.2	40.0%	28.9%
3	Josiah Brown	G	So	6'5"	11-0	6.5	1.8	0.9	0.3	0.2	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	100.0%	12.0%
22	Elijah Taylor	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
15	Macahi Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Coppin St

Against the spread

Season

14-16

Home

3-5

Road

9-10

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.5

Covered the last gameCovered 6 of 10 as an underdogCovered 1 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

19-11

Home

6-2

Road

11-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −3.0

Under in the last gameOver in 5 of 10 as an underdogOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 5	Morgan StAdjEM #349	A	L 66–70	+6.5	W+2.5	150.5	U136	95.9	101.7	68.8
Mar 2	HowardAdjEM #160	A	L 70–90	+18.5	L−1.5	140.0	O160	98.9	127.2	70.8
Feb 28	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	H	L 69–75	+8.0	W+2.0	141.5	O144	104.5	113.6	66.0
Feb 21	MD EasternAdjEM #345	H	W 71–65 OT	+3.0	W+9.0	127.0	O136	96.4	88.3	73.6
Feb 16	SC StateAdjEM #357	A	W 59–57	+5.0	W+7.0	139.0	U116	87.6	84.6	67.4
Feb 14	NC CentralAdjEM #346	A	W 58–56	+11.0	W+13.0	145.5	U114	92.8	89.6	62.5
Feb 7	Delaware StAdjEM #358	H	W 65–47	+1.0	W+19.0	133.5	U112	97.8	70.7	66.4
Feb 2	HowardAdjEM #160	H	L 53–72	+14.0	L−5.0	146.5	U125	85.8	116.6	61.8
Jan 31	Morgan StAdjEM #349	H	L 80–89	+2.5	L−6.5	155.5	O169	105.5	117.4	75.8
Jan 24	Norfolk StAdjEM #305	A	L 76–103	+12.5	L−14.5	141.5	O179	94.7	128.4	80.2

Villanova

Against the spread

Season

18-14-1

Home

8-9

Road

8-3-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.4

Missed the spread 3 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

20-13

Home

11-6

Road

7-5

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.5

Over 3 straightOver in 6 of 7 as a favorite

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#9Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 76–86	+2.0	L−8.0	147.5	O162	111.5	126.2	68.1
Mar 12	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	N	L 64–78	−6.5	L−20.5	141.0	O142	99.4	121.1	64.4
Mar 7	XavierAdjEM #129	H	W 91–78	−13.5	L−0.5	154.0	O169	128.2	109.9	71.0
Mar 4	DePaulAdjEM #113	A	W 76–57	−2.0	W+17.0	136.5	U133	108.2	81.1	70.3
Feb 28	#15St John'sAdjEM #16	A	L 57–89	+7.5	L−24.5	148.0	U146	78.6	122.8	72.5
Feb 25	ButlerAdjEM #87	H	W 82–73	−10.5	L−1.5	147.0	O155	116.7	103.9	70.2
Feb 21	#5UConnAdjEM #10	H	L 63–73	+3.0	L−7.0	141.0	U136	100.1	116.0	62.9
Feb 17	XavierAdjEM #129	A	W 92–89 OT	−4.0	L−1.0	153.5	O181	116.7	112.9	78.8
Feb 14	CreightonAdjEM #92	A	W 80–69	−2.5	W+8.5	146.0	O149	115.3	99.5	69.4
Feb 10	MarquetteAdjEM #100	H	W 77–74	−9.5	L−6.5	145.0	O151	109.8	105.5	70.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Coppin StVillanova

Efficiency

97.4

115.0

115.9

104.1

69.1

66.8

—

Shooting

45.9%

53.8%

45.8%

54.0%

30.7%

35.7%

67.2%

68.9%

38.5%

30.9%

Ball control & glass

22.3%

15.0%

17.5%

18.6%

30.4%

32.2%

34.8%

31.8%

13.0%

7.6%

12.0%

7.3%

Style

35.2%

45.7%

43.2%

40.3%

13.9%

11.7%

51.5%

56.8%

49.2%

27.3%

Roster

3.20

2.09

6'5.6"

6'5.5"

—

58.6%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Coppin St

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Coppin St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Villanova

Returning minutes: 58.6%Returning production: 51.4%

Lost

Acaden Lewis 30.5 mpg, 12.2 ppg · transferred to Miami
Duke Brennan 30.1 mpg, 12.1 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma
Devin Askew 23.1 mpg, 9.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nico Onyekwere no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 59% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.