CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceReitz Arena, Baltimore, MD
Rider
Efficiency #356
2025-26: 4-25 · 3-17 conf
@
Loyola MD
Efficiency #313
2025-26: 12-20 · 8-11 conf
Tue, Nov 24 · TBD
69.6
win 24%
Projected
77.9
win 76%
No line posted yet.
Model: L-MD −8.4 · total 147.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Loyola MD 68.8, Rider 67.2 → 67.7 possessions
−1.3
Loyola MD offense vs Rider defense
+2.5
Rider offense vs Loyola MD defense
−2.0
Projected total
147.5
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Loyola MD offense vs Rider defense
+2.5
Rider offense vs Loyola MD defense
+2.0
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.9
Loyola MD by 8.4
8.4
Rider side ◂▸ Loyola MD side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 147.4 against a projected 147.5. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Loyola MD.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 67.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Loyola MD is the faster team (68.1, #194 of 365) and Rider the slower (65.7, #309). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
67.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
147.5
model
Projected team totals
69.6 / 77.9
Rider / Loyola MD
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.2#273
Rider
68.8#134
Loyola MD
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetAdvantageRider
Where Rider struggles: shooting
Rider shoots an effective 42.8% (#365); Loyola MD allows 54.7% (#321). Expect about 48.1%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageLoyola MD
Where Loyola MD scores: shooting
Loyola MD shoots an effective 50.4% (#219); Rider allows 55.2% (#335). Expect about 52.8%, 1.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversLoyola MD
Loyola MD protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.1% is worth roughly +2.1 points per 100 possessions for Loyola MD's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Rider, Rider's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Rider at about 29.9% of its shots from three, Loyola MD about 46.0%.
Rider has the ball
OffenseLoyola MD allowsvs D1 avg
42.8% #365
54.7% #321
-4.5 pt/100
16.9% #196
15.3% #265
+1.1 pt/100
32.6% #101
29.0% #103
+0.5 pt/100
30.1% #307
32.7% #123
-0.5 pt/100
70.1% #270
—
-0.2 pt/100
Rider net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.6 pts/100
Loyola MD has the ball
OffenseRider allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #219
55.2% #335
+2.1 pt/100
15.5% #105
15.3% #268
+2.1 pt/100
27.6% #279
32.8% #294
-0.5 pt/100
29.9% #312
32.5% #116
-0.5 pt/100
71.5% #223
—
-0.1 pt/100
Loyola MD net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.1 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersRideroffense vsLoyola MDdefense
Share of shots by zone
Rider shoots
37.7
6.5
28.6
27.2
Loyola MD allows
36.9
5.5
17.4
40.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 49.2%#364 | 65.1%#352 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 41.5%#130 | 52.3%#359 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.9%#227 | 47.3%#362 | 38.0% |
| Three | 27.7%#365 | 32.8%#106 | 33.7% |
Loyola MDoffense vsRiderdefense
Share of shots by zone
Loyola MD shoots
36.6
7.1
9.0
47.2
Rider allows
44.5
4.5
10.5
40.6
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 56.6%#251 | 57.0%#111 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 46.6%#44 | 40.6%#203 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 36.1%#262 | 44.7%#346 | 38.0% |
| Three | 32.6%#251 | 37.9%#356 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersRider
−1.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#258 of 365
Off reb %
32.6%
#101
Def reb %
67.2%
#294
Turnover %
16.9%
#196
Forced TO %
15.3%
#268
FT rate
30.1%
#307
FT allowed
32.5%
#116
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.7
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security−0.1
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.7
Loyola MD
−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#240 of 365
Off reb %
27.6%
#279
Def reb %
71.0%
#103
Turnover %
15.5%
#105
Forced TO %
15.3%
#265
FT rate
29.9%
#312
FT allowed
32.7%
#123
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.9
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security+0.9
Forcing turnovers−1.0
Foul shots drawn−1.3
Foul shots allowed+0.6
Loyola MD has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.1 (#240 of 365) to Rider’s −1.6 (#258).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Rider2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mark Butlerat Lafayette | G | Sr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 33.9 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 76.0% | 20.9% | |
| 22 | Khalil Farmerat UMass Lowell | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-0 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 43.2% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 61.7% | 18.3% | |
| 55 | Bryce Bakerat Charleston | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 13.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.4 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 23 | Horace Simmons Jr.at Drexel | F | Jr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.8% | 18.8% | 1.2 | 75.0% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Ty Bevinsat G Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.1% | 26.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 17.0% | |
| 13 | Rich Briscoat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.2% | |
| 14 | Kam Wylieat 2598 | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Bryce Presley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | JJ Washington | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Mikes Connelly | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Nasir Washington | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Richie Rosa | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Segun Ezekiel Obe | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Stephen Avegah Semey | C | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Bryce Baker (from Charleston), Ty Bevins (from G Washington), Rich Brisco (from Akron), Mark Butler (from Lafayette), Khalil Farmer (from UMass Lowell), Horace Simmons Jr. (from Drexel), Kam Wylie (from 2598)
Loyola MD2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Braeden Speed | G | So | 6'3" | 32-32 | 32.7 | 15.3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 52.3% | 36.5% | 4.6 | 82.2% | 26.9% | |
| 3 | Jordan Stiemke | G | Jr | 6'5" | 32-28 | 27.5 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 48.6% | 33.7% | 5.1 | 81.1% | 22.1% | |
| 15 | Tyson Commander | G | Sr | 6'4" | 31-17 | 23.5 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 54.8% | 40.8% | 1.6 | 72.2% | 11.9% | |
| 18 | Emmett Adair | F | Fr | 6'9" | 27-15 | 25.4 | 14.6 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 53.5% | 31.5% | 5.3 | 81.1% | 33.2% | |
| 22 | Sam Springer | F | So | 6'7" | 32-31 | 16.8 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 50.0% | 35.1% | 2.3 | 68.3% | 18.2% | |
| 24 | Sebastien Emenalo | G | Fr | 6'6" | 31-0 | 14.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 45.9% | 30.9% | 1.8 | 47.6% | 16.0% | |
| 2 | Troy Cicero Jr. | G | Jr | 6'2" | 32-0 | 13.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 52.5% | 38.0% | 3.8 | 77.3% | 24.6% | |
| 1 | Carter Berg-McLean | G | Fr | 6'4" | 30-0 | 13.9 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 41.9% | 19.2% | 0.9 | 76.2% | 18.4% | |
| 7 | Jonas Sirtautas | F | Jr | 6'10" | 19-12 | 19.3 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 63.3% | 14.3% | 0.7 | 47.9% | 18.7% | |
| 17 | Everett Barnes | F | Fr | 6'9" | 25-5 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 51.5% | 40.0% | 0.2 | 20.0% | 13.6% | |
| 14 | Garrett Brennan | G | Sr | 6'4" | 14-1 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 36.7% | 12.5% | 0.6 | 28.6% | 18.8% | |
| 13 | Ben Menker | G | So | 6'5" | 12-0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 0.5 | — | 26.8% | |
| 5 | Peter Sposito | G | Sr | 6'2" | 11-1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 21.4% | 25.0% | 0.4 | 0.0% | 30.1% | |
| 8 | Goap Kodi | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Rider2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mark Butlerat Lafayette | G | Sr | 5'10" | 32-32 | 33.9 | 10.7 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 43.7% | 25.0% | 0.6 | 76.0% | 20.9% | |
| 22 | Khalil Farmerat UMass Lowell | G | Sr | 6'4" | 33-0 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 43.2% | 32.1% | 1.7 | 61.7% | 18.3% | |
| 55 | Bryce Bakerat Charleston | G | Sr | 6'5" | 8-0 | 13.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 26.1% | 10.5% | 2.4 | 50.0% | 14.9% | |
| 23 | Horace Simmons Jr.at Drexel | F | Jr | 6'6" | 13-0 | 6.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 32.8% | 18.8% | 1.2 | 75.0% | 22.8% | |
| 5 | Ty Bevinsat G Washington | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 7.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 42.1% | 26.7% | 1.5 | 75.0% | 17.0% | |
| 13 | Rich Briscoat Akron | F | So | 6'8" | 8-0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 27.2% | |
| 14 | Kam Wylieat 2598 | F | So | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 24 | Bryce Presley | G | Fr | 6'5" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 11 | JJ Washington | G | Fr | 6'2" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 9 | Mikes Connelly | G | Fr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 3 | Nasir Washington | G | Jr | 6'3" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 2 | Richie Rosa | G | Fr | 6'0" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 0 | Segun Ezekiel Obe | F | So | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 8 | Stephen Avegah Semey | C | Jr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Bryce Baker (from Charleston), Ty Bevins (from G Washington), Rich Brisco (from Akron), Mark Butler (from Lafayette), Khalil Farmer (from UMass Lowell), Horace Simmons Jr. (from Drexel), Kam Wylie (from 2598)
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Rider
Against the spread
Season
9-17-2
Home
3-8-1
Road
6-9-1
Last 10
3-7
avg cover −3.9
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 3 of 9 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
9-19
Home
4-8
Road
5-11
Last 10
4-6
avg vs total +4.0
Under 3 straightOver in 3 of 9 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1 | Siena | A | L 61–76 | +14.5 | L−0.5 | 137.5 | U137 | 91.6 | 114.2 | 66.6 |
| Feb 27 | Iona | A | L 58–80 | +11.5 | L−10.5 | 141.0 | U138 | 80.9 | 111.5 | 71.7 |
| Feb 22 | Niagara | H | W 67–62 | +2.0 | W+7.0 | 130.5 | U129 | 103.3 | 95.5 | 64.9 |
| Feb 20 | Canisius | H | L 66–72 | −1.0 | L−7.0 | 131.0 | O138 | 97.8 | 106.7 | 67.5 |
| Feb 15 | Sacred Heart | A | L 75–86 | +9.0 | L−2.0 | 146.5 | O161 | 108.6 | 124.5 | 69.1 |
| Feb 13 | Mount St Marys | H | L 55–65 | +5.0 | L−5.0 | 138.5 | U120 | 84.7 | 100.1 | 64.9 |
| Feb 7 | Merrimack | H | L 47–73 | +8.5 | L−17.5 | 137.5 | U120 | 81.8 | 127.1 | 57.5 |
| Feb 5 | Marist | A | L 52–81 | +14.0 | L−15.0 | 135.5 | U133 | 88.1 | 137.2 | 59.0 |
| Feb 1 | Saint Peter's | H | W 81–78 | +7.5 | W+10.5 | 136.0 | O159 | 124.1 | 119.5 | 65.3 |
| Jan 30 | Manhattan | A | L 90–95 | +6.0 | W+1.0 | 146.0 | O185 | 133.6 | 141.1 | 67.3 |
Loyola MD
Against the spread
Season
16-14
Home
7-5
Road
8-8
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −0.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 7 as an underdog
Over / under
Season
17-13
Home
6-6
Road
11-5
Last 10
7-3
avg vs total +6.9
Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 7 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5 | Colgate | A | L 77–90 | +5.5 | L−7.5 | 154.0 | O167 | 119.4 | 139.5 | 64.5 |
| Feb 28 | Holy Cross | A | W 76–62 | +1.0 | W+15.0 | 151.0 | U138 | 120.0 | 97.9 | 63.3 |
| Feb 25 | Navy | H | L 51–78 | +6.5 | L−20.5 | 146.5 | U129 | 83.8 | 128.1 | 60.9 |
| Feb 21 | Colgate | A | L 98–101 OT | +8.5 | W+5.5 | 149.5 | O199 | 112.3 | 115.7 | 87.3 |
| Feb 18 | Army | H | L 77–87 | −4.5 | L−14.5 | 150.0 | O164 | 111.6 | 126.1 | 69.0 |
| Feb 15 | Holy Cross | H | W 83–73 | −4.5 | W+5.5 | 145.5 | O156 | 127.5 | 112.2 | 65.1 |
| Feb 11 | Lafayette | A | W 68–54 | +3.0 | W+17.0 | 148.5 | U122 | 103.9 | 82.5 | 65.5 |
| Feb 7 | Boston U | A | L 69–78 | +5.0 | L−4.0 | 146.0 | O147 | 99.1 | 112.0 | 69.6 |
| Feb 4 | Lehigh | H | W 89–84 2OT | −2.5 | W+2.5 | 149.5 | O173 | 110.9 | 104.7 | 80.3 |
| Jan 31 | Navy | A | L 71–87 | +10.0 | L−6.0 | 143.5 | O158 | 108.8 | 133.3 | 65.3 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeRiderLoyola MD
Efficiency
100.0
105.6
115.1
114.0
67.2
68.8
—
—
Shooting
42.8%
50.4%
43.3%
51.9%
27.7%
32.6%
70.1%
71.5%
30.1%
29.9%
Ball control & glass
16.9%
15.5%
15.3%
15.3%
32.6%
27.6%
32.8%
29.0%
9.9%
8.7%
8.3%
8.3%
Style
27.5%
47.2%
43.2%
40.4%
12.6%
10.0%
44.3%
48.8%
33.0%
37.7%
Roster
3.88
2.26
6'0.8"
6'5.4"
0.0%
90.3%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputRider
Returning minutes: 0.0%Returning production: 0.0%
Lost
- Flash Burton 32.1 mpg, 15.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Zion Cruz 30.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Caleb Smith 29.8 mpg, 7.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Shemani Fuller 21.4 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Davis Bynum 18.3 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Cole McCabe 12.2 mpg, 2.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Mark Butler from Lafayette · 33.9 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
- Khalil Farmer from UMass Lowell · 14.2 mpg, 3.8 ppg last season
- Bryce Baker from Charleston · 3.3 mpg, 0.4 ppg last season
- Horace Simmons Jr. from Drexel · 2.7 mpg, 0.7 ppg last season
- Ty Bevins from G Washington · 2.2 mpg, 0.5 ppg last season
- Rich Brisco from Akron · 0.7 mpg, 0.3 ppg last season
Returns 0% of last season's minutes; lost 5 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Loyola MD
Returning minutes: 90.3%Returning production: 86.5%
Lost
- Jacob Theodosiou 19.7 mpg, 11.0 ppg · transferred to Duke
Added
- Goap Kodi no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.