CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteSuncoast Credit Union Arena, Fort Myers, FLFort Myers Tip-Off - Beach Division
DePaul
Efficiency #113
2025-26: 16-16 · 8-13 conf
vs
Purdue
Efficiency #9
2025-26: 30-9 · 17-7 conf
Tue, Nov 24 · 6:00 PM ET
66.6
win 18%
Projected
77.3
win 82%
No line posted yet.
Model: PUR −10.7 · total 143.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Purdue 66.3, DePaul 67.7 → 65.7 possessions
−5.7
Purdue offense vs DePaul defense
+6.1
DePaul offense vs Purdue defense
−4.6
Projected total
143.9
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Purdue offense vs DePaul defense
+6.1
DePaul offense vs Purdue defense
+4.6
Purdue by 10.7
10.7
DePaul side ◂▸ Purdue side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 144.0 against a projected 143.9. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Purdue.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, DePaul is the faster team (67.7, #213 of 365) and Purdue the slower (65.2, #324). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
143.9
model
Projected team totals
66.6 / 77.3
DePaul / Purdue
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.7#236
DePaul
66.3#329
Purdue

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantagePurdue
Where Purdue scores: shooting
Purdue shoots an effective 57.6% (#10); DePaul allows 49.3% (#77). Expect about 53.9%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.8 points per 100 possessions.
ClashPurdue
Style match: ball movement
Purdue assists on 65.6% of its made baskets; DePaul allows assists on 57.5% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 64.3% — both habits push the same way.
Pace
Half-court grind
Purdue averages 65.2 possessions per 40, DePaul 67.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
GlassPurdue
Purdue owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.9% is worth roughly +2.8 points per 100 possessions for Purdue's offense.
ClashDePaul
Style match: ball movement
DePaul assists on 60.9% of its made baskets; Purdue allows assists on 57.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.0% — both habits push the same way.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Purdue) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect DePaul at about 41.9% of its shots from three, Purdue about 36.5%.
DePaul has the ball
OffensePurdue allowsvs D1 avg
49.8% #243
52.4% #232
-0.4 pt/100
17.8% #256
15.3% #263
+0.4 pt/100
30.0% #197
27.1% #39
-1.1 pt/100
35.3% #169
25.5% #9
-0.7 pt/100
69.2% #295
—
-0.3 pt/100
DePaul net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -2.1 pts/100
Purdue has the ball
OffenseDePaul allowsvs D1 avg
57.6% #10
49.3% #77
+3.8 pt/100
13.7% #17
18.6% #67
+0.7 pt/100
36.4% #19
31.1% #205
+2.8 pt/100
28.6% #336
37.8% #257
-0.2 pt/100
74.6% #99
—
+0.2 pt/100
Purdue net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
DePauloffense vsPurduedefense
Share of shots by zone
DePaul shoots
Purdue allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim55.4%#28762.6%#31658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.9%#6644.3%#27639.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.4%#25543.0%#32938.0%
Three32.5%#25334.1%#19233.7%
Purdueoffense vsDePauldefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue shoots
DePaul allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim71.4%#153.6%#3458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)44.6%#7035.3%#6539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)45.2%#1336.2%#11738.0%
Three38.3%#1135.4%#27433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
DePaul
−0.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#188 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#197
Def reb %
68.9%
#205
Turnover %
17.8%
#256
Forced TO %
18.6%
#67
FT rate
35.3%
#169
FT allowed
37.8%
#257
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers+1.3
Foul shots drawn+0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.7
Purdue
+5.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#20 of 365
Off reb %
36.4%
#19
Def reb %
72.9%
#39
Turnover %
13.7%
#17
Forced TO %
15.3%
#263
FT rate
28.6%
#336
FT allowed
25.5%
#9
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.9
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security+2.1
Forcing turnovers−0.9
Foul shots drawn−1.7
Foul shots allowed+2.5

Purdue has more extra scoring chances per game: +5.1 (#20 of 365) to DePaul’s −0.2 (#188).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

DePaul2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted DePaul's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
2Layden BlockerGJr6'2"32-2929.111.12.53.52.241.7%31.8%3.482.8%27.3%
11CJ GunnGSr6'7"32-2327.713.13.71.91.947.3%32.7%5.372.5%32.1%
5RJ SmithGJr6'3"32-2327.76.62.42.41.146.1%30.8%3.875.0%16.7%
35NJ BensonFSr6'8"32-3125.911.77.61.21.363.6%0.0%0.150.5%24.6%
0Brandon MaclinGSr6'3"29-1627.610.54.52.81.848.5%30.6%2.569.5%25.2%
22Kruz McClureGFr6'6"28-418.65.01.41.51.441.6%29.9%2.874.1%20.7%
1Kaleb BanksFSr6'8"31-1116.25.62.50.40.654.0%35.5%2.074.1%19.5%
21Theo Pierre-JustinFSo6'10"30-2215.54.02.60.90.554.5%39.7%2.161.1%15.7%
15Fabian FloresCFr7'2"28-110.52.92.90.30.368.1%—0.064.0%13.8%
10Ilija MilijasevicGJr6'2"15-07.92.20.50.50.353.6%35.7%1.975.0%16.4%
32Jeremy LorenzFJr6'8"9-010.42.21.81.00.960.0%0.0%0.150.0%15.4%
14Khaman MakerCSo7'1"12-05.51.31.20.00.350.0%—0.025.0%16.1%
3Nate KasherGFr6'1"5-01.80.40.80.40.20.0%—0.0100.0%18.7%
52Amsal DelalicGSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Isaiah MedinaFFr7'0"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
6Jonas JohnsonFFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
DePaulPurdue
Efficiency
106.3
122.7
103.5
103.6
67.7
66.3
—
—
Shooting
49.8%
57.6%
50.5%
57.7%
32.5%
38.3%
69.2%
74.6%
35.3%
28.6%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
13.7%
18.6%
15.3%
30.0%
36.4%
31.1%
27.1%
10.8%
8.0%
10.7%
6.4%
Style
39.0%
40.2%
42.9%
40.7%
13.1%
9.4%
60.9%
65.6%
35.0%
29.8%
Roster
3.13
1.73
6'5.9"
6'5.8"
—
42.3%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
DePaul
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted DePaul's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Purdue
Returning minutes: 42.3%Returning production: 32.3%
Lost
  • Braden Smith 34.5 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Fletcher Loyer 29.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Trey Kaufman-Renn 26.7 mpg, 13.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Oscar Cluff 24.7 mpg, 10.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Aaron Fine 0.6 mpg, 0.3 ppg · transferred to Ball State
Added
  • Antione West Jr no D1 minutes last season
  • Raleigh Burgess no D1 minutes last season
  • Sam King no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 42% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5.

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.