CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceStephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, FL

Milwaukee

Efficiency #262

2025-26: 12-20 · 8-13 conf

Florida

Efficiency #5

2025-26: 27-8 · 17-3 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · TBD

65.9

win 3%

Projected

88.6

win 97%

No line posted yet.

Model: FLA −22.7 · total 154.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Florida 70.2, Milwaukee 68.5 → 70.4 possessions

+4.5

Florida offense vs Milwaukee defense

+10.2

Milwaukee offense vs Florida defense

−8.5

Projected total

154.5

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Florida offense vs Milwaukee defense

+10.2

Milwaukee offense vs Florida defense

+8.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Florida by 22.7

22.7

Milwaukee side ◂▸ Florida side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 154.4 against a projected 154.5, and the margin steps add to +22.8 against +22.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Florida.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Florida is the faster team (72.0, #23 of 365) and Milwaukee the slower (69.1, #143). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

154.5

model

Projected team totals

65.9 / 88.6

Milwaukee / Florida

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

68.5#168

Milwaukee

70.2#35

Florida

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageFlorida

Where Florida scores: shooting

Florida shoots an effective 54.1% (#63); Milwaukee allows 55.5% (#340). Expect about 55.1%, 3.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +5.4 points per 100 possessions.

GlassFlorida

Florida owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 38.9% is worth roughly +5.2 points per 100 possessions for Florida's offense.

AdvantageMilwaukee

Where Milwaukee struggles: shooting

Milwaukee shoots an effective 49.9% (#242); Florida allows 46.1% (#10). Expect about 47.8%, 3.4 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.9 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Track meet

Florida averages 72.0 possessions per 40, Milwaukee 69.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

ClashMilwaukee

Style match: ball movement

Milwaukee creates off the dribble (assists on 48.1% of its baskets); Florida breaks up passing offenses (assists on 44.6% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 44.6% — both habits push the same way.

TurnoversMilwaukee

Milwaukee protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.9% is worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions for Milwaukee's offense.

Milwaukee has the ball

OffenseFlorida allowsvs D1 avg

49.9% #242

46.1% #10

-4.9 pt/100

15.2% #81

15.3% #269

+2.3 pt/100

33.0% #88

24.8% #7

-0.5 pt/100

32.1% #256

34.0% #153

-0.3 pt/100

68.7% #307

—

-0.3 pt/100

Milwaukee net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.7 pts/100

Florida has the ball

OffenseMilwaukee allowsvs D1 avg

54.1% #63

55.5% #340

+5.4 pt/100

16.3% #160

15.8% #228

+1.0 pt/100

43.3% #2

29.2% #121

+5.2 pt/100

39.0% #80

35.9% #208

+0.3 pt/100

71.2% #232

—

-0.1 pt/100

Florida net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +11.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Milwaukeeoffense vsFloridadefense

Share of shots by zone

Milwaukee shoots

39.4

5.6

17.0

38.1

Florida allows

38.8

7.9

20.9

32.4

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.2%#295	50.6%#5	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.2%#140	34.8%#53	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#124	34.9%#73	38.0%
Three	32.3%#266	32.1%#66	33.7%

Floridaoffense vsMilwaukeedefense

Share of shots by zone

Florida shoots

44.2

7.3

10.3

38.2

Milwaukee allows

41.9

5.8

12.1

40.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.9%#24	61.6%#287	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.9%#52	46.9%#330	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.4%#97	38.7%#189	38.0%
Three	31.2%#315	36.5%#329	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Milwaukee

+0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#146 of 365

Off reb %

33.0%

#88

Def reb %

70.8%

#121

Turnover %

15.2%

#81

Forced TO %

15.8%

#228

FT rate

32.1%

#256

FT allowed

35.9%

#208

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+1.1

Forcing turnovers−0.6

Foul shots drawn−0.8

Foul shots allowed−0.2

Florida

+6.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#8 of 365

Off reb %

43.3%

Def reb %

75.2%

Turnover %

16.3%

#160

Forced TO %

15.3%

#269

FT rate

39.0%

#80

FT allowed

34.0%

#153

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+4.2

Defensive rebounding+1.9

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers−1.0

Foul shots drawn+1.0

Foul shots allowed+0.3

Florida has more extra scoring chances per game: +6.7 (#8 of 365) to Milwaukee’s +0.9 (#146).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Milwaukee2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Milwaukee's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
29	Aaron Franklin	G	Sr	6'5"	32-22	25.2	6.8	6.3	1.2	0.7	59.4%	34.5%	0.9	44.4%	15.2%
5	Isaiah Dorceus	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.2	5.5	1.5	3.7	1.7	43.8%	32.5%	2.5	65.7%	20.0%
8	Stevie Elam	G	Fr	6'3"	25-12	26.2	10.5	4.7	0.8	0.5	50.2%	35.4%	5.8	81.1%	22.5%
1	Amar Augillard	G	Sr	6'5"	31-24	20.8	12.6	2.6	1.1	1.8	47.7%	32.4%	5.7	83.3%	38.3%
2	Josh Dixon	G	Fr	6'1"	32-12	18.5	9.0	1.1	1.6	1.3	44.5%	31.2%	2.9	87.1%	33.0%
24	Esyah Pippa-White	G	Jr	6'2"	32-15	18.5	4.4	1.8	2.3	1.0	35.3%	23.9%	2.8	56.9%	20.4%
11	Chandler Jackson	F	Jr	6'7"	24-9	23.0	9.7	2.8	0.9	1.1	57.5%	32.9%	2.9	79.4%	23.1%
3	Danilo Jovanovich	F	Sr	6'8"	17-17	30.2	12.4	6.1	2.2	1.0	61.8%	53.8%	0.8	71.0%	20.7%
22	Faizon Fields	F	Sr	6'10"	21-20	21.2	6.7	5.6	0.4	1.0	62.0%	66.7%	0.1	58.9%	17.5%
25	Sekou Konneh	F	Fr	6'9"	31-3	13.4	6.4	4.7	0.3	0.7	56.1%	11.1%	0.3	57.1%	27.2%
12	Seth Hubbard	G	Sr	6'4"	9-9	30.7	16.6	3.3	2.1	1.1	50.4%	35.9%	4.3	75.8%	29.6%
34	Tate Mackenzie	F	Jr	6'10"	18-1	7.0	0.9	1.2	0.1	0.3	45.5%	—	0.0	50.0%	10.3%
9	Simeon Murchison	F	So	6'9"	16-0	5.4	1.3	0.9	0.1	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	85.7%	14.2%
23	Austin Villarreal	G	So	6'1"	4-0	1.8	0.5	1.0	0.0	0.0	25.0%	0.0%	0.8	—	30.6%
00	John Lovelace Jr.	G	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Ned Renfree	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Florida2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
10	Thomas Haugh	F	Sr	6'9"	34-34	33.3	17.1	6.1	2.1	1.5	53.3%	32.6%	5.2	77.4%	26.9%
1	Denzel Aberdeenat Kentucky	G	Sr	6'5"	36-35	30.6	13.5	2.5	3.4	1.3	51.6%	36.3%	4.8	79.8%	25.1%
0	Boogie Fland	G	Jr	6'3"	35-35	30.0	11.6	2.5	3.5	1.6	49.2%	24.0%	3.6	72.6%	23.3%
21	Alex Condon	F	Sr	6'11"	34-34	30.5	15.1	7.5	3.6	2.4	56.9%	17.0%	1.6	64.9%	27.8%
9	Rueben Chinyelu	C	Sr	6'10"	35-35	24.5	10.9	11.2	0.7	1.5	58.4%	0.0%	0.1	69.5%	23.8%
7	Urban Klavzar	G	Sr	6'1"	35-0	20.7	9.6	1.5	1.3	0.8	59.6%	40.6%	5.0	90.3%	22.4%
20	Isaiah Brown	G	Jr	6'4"	32-0	13.3	5.7	2.6	0.6	0.5	54.0%	34.6%	1.6	73.3%	22.9%
11	CJ Ingram	G	So	6'6"	20-0	5.7	2.3	0.9	0.5	0.4	57.1%	50.0%	0.8	50.0%	23.7%
4	Alex Lloyd	G	So	6'3"	17-0	4.8	1.2	0.8	0.2	0.4	38.5%	21.1%	1.1	20.0%	23.2%
8	Alex Kovatchev	G	Sr	6'5"	15-0	3.4	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.1	33.3%	22.2%	0.6	—	14.5%
12	Viktor Mikic	C	Jr	6'11"	15-0	3.3	1.5	0.9	0.4	0.4	32.6%	25.0%	0.3	53.8%	39.7%
3	AJ Brown	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
25	Arturas Butajevas	F	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
19	Domen Petrovic	F	Jr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
13	Jones Lay	C	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Transfers in: Denzel Aberdeen (from Kentucky)

Milwaukee2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Milwaukee's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
29	Aaron Franklin	G	Sr	6'5"	32-22	25.2	6.8	6.3	1.2	0.7	59.4%	34.5%	0.9	44.4%	15.2%
5	Isaiah Dorceus	G	Jr	6'0"	31-16	22.2	5.5	1.5	3.7	1.7	43.8%	32.5%	2.5	65.7%	20.0%
8	Stevie Elam	G	Fr	6'3"	25-12	26.2	10.5	4.7	0.8	0.5	50.2%	35.4%	5.8	81.1%	22.5%
1	Amar Augillard	G	Sr	6'5"	31-24	20.8	12.6	2.6	1.1	1.8	47.7%	32.4%	5.7	83.3%	38.3%
2	Josh Dixon	G	Fr	6'1"	32-12	18.5	9.0	1.1	1.6	1.3	44.5%	31.2%	2.9	87.1%	33.0%
24	Esyah Pippa-White	G	Jr	6'2"	32-15	18.5	4.4	1.8	2.3	1.0	35.3%	23.9%	2.8	56.9%	20.4%
11	Chandler Jackson	F	Jr	6'7"	24-9	23.0	9.7	2.8	0.9	1.1	57.5%	32.9%	2.9	79.4%	23.1%
3	Danilo Jovanovich	F	Sr	6'8"	17-17	30.2	12.4	6.1	2.2	1.0	61.8%	53.8%	0.8	71.0%	20.7%
22	Faizon Fields	F	Sr	6'10"	21-20	21.2	6.7	5.6	0.4	1.0	62.0%	66.7%	0.1	58.9%	17.5%
25	Sekou Konneh	F	Fr	6'9"	31-3	13.4	6.4	4.7	0.3	0.7	56.1%	11.1%	0.3	57.1%	27.2%
12	Seth Hubbard	G	Sr	6'4"	9-9	30.7	16.6	3.3	2.1	1.1	50.4%	35.9%	4.3	75.8%	29.6%
34	Tate Mackenzie	F	Jr	6'10"	18-1	7.0	0.9	1.2	0.1	0.3	45.5%	—	0.0	50.0%	10.3%
9	Simeon Murchison	F	So	6'9"	16-0	5.4	1.3	0.9	0.1	0.3	50.0%	—	0.0	85.7%	14.2%
23	Austin Villarreal	G	So	6'1"	4-0	1.8	0.5	1.0	0.0	0.0	25.0%	0.0%	0.8	—	30.6%
00	John Lovelace Jr.	G	Sr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Ned Renfree	G	Fr	6'2"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Milwaukee

Against the spread

Season

11-19-1

Home

6-8

Road

5-11-1

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −4.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-17

Home

6-8

Road

8-9

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −0.8

Under 3 straightOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 63–84	+1.0	L−20.0	151.5	U147	93.7	124.9	67.2
Feb 25	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	H	W 78–65	+1.0	W+14.0	148.5	U143	113.9	94.9	68.5
Feb 22	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	L 70–81	+6.5	L−4.5	160.0	U151	107.1	123.9	65.4
Feb 20	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 86–91	−1.0	L−6.0	153.0	O177	122.5	129.7	70.2
Feb 15	Green BayAdjEM #222	H	W 75–72	−2.5	W+0.5	145.5	O147	121.8	117.0	61.6
Feb 10	IU IndyAdjEM #315	A	W 92–88	−2.0	W+2.0	158.0	O180	118.7	113.6	77.5
Feb 7	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	A	L 62–67	+7.0	W+2.0	156.5	U129	99.1	107.1	62.6
Feb 4	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	H	L 63–76	−6.0	L−19.0	159.0	U139	98.6	119.0	63.9
Feb 1	Cleveland StAdjEM #330	H	L 88–90	−10.0	L−12.0	160.5	O178	126.5	129.3	69.6
Jan 30	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 69–76	+2.5	L−4.5	151.5	U145	94.8	104.4	72.8

Florida

Against the spread

Season

19-16

Home

7-8

Road

9-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +2.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 7 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

14-20-1

Home

6-9

Road

3-7

Last 10

5-4-1

avg vs total +3.0

Over in 5 of 10 as a favorite, 1 pushOver in 4 of 7 with a line of 10+, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#9IowaAdjEM #22	N	L 72–73	−10.0	L−11.0	145.0	P145	117.8	119.4	61.1
Mar 20	#16Prairie ViewAdjEM #303	N	W 114–55	−35.0	W+24.0	154.0	O169	164.5	79.4	69.3
Mar 14	#22VanderbiltAdjEM #12	N	L 74–91	−7.0	L−24.0	160.0	O165	115.8	142.4	63.9
Mar 13	KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	W 71–63	−10.0	L−2.0	160.5	U134	97.1	86.2	73.1
Mar 7	KentuckyAdjEM #27	A	W 84–77	−5.5	W+1.5	162.0	U161	117.3	107.6	71.6
Mar 3	Mississippi StAdjEM #144	H	W 108–74	−21.0	W+13.0	160.5	O182	143.9	98.6	75.1
Feb 28	#20ArkansasAdjEM #19	H	W 111–77	−10.5	W+23.5	170.0	O188	137.4	95.3	80.8
Feb 25	TexasAdjEM #38	A	W 84–71	−7.0	W+6.0	158.5	U155	130.1	110.0	64.5
Feb 21	Ole MissAdjEM #82	A	W 94–75	−13.5	W+5.5	150.5	O169	122.2	97.5	76.9
Feb 17	South CarolinaAdjEM #123	H	W 76–62	−23.0	L−9.0	155.0	U138	113.4	92.5	67.0

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

MilwaukeeFlorida

Efficiency

107.1

119.2

112.2

97.9

68.5

70.2

—

Shooting

49.9%

54.1%

50.8%

58.5%

32.3%

31.2%

68.7%

71.2%

32.1%

39.0%

Ball control & glass

15.2%

16.3%

15.8%

15.3%

33.0%

43.3%

29.2%

24.8%

8.4%

9.0%

9.5%

7.0%

Style

38.1%

37.0%

44.2%

50.2%

16.7%

18.2%

48.1%

55.0%

35.0%

27.5%

Roster

2.89

3.71

6'4.7"

6'6.5"

—

78.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Milwaukee

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Milwaukee's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Florida

Returning minutes: 78.8%Returning production: 79.0%

Lost

Xaivian Lee 27.4 mpg, 11.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Micah Handlogten 14.4 mpg, 4.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Olivier Rioux 0.5 mpg, 0.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Cooper Josefsberg 0.1 mpg, 0.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Denzel Aberdeen from Kentucky · 30.6 mpg, 13.5 ppg last season
Jones Lay no D1 minutes last season
Arturas Butajevas no D1 minutes last season
AJ Brown no D1 minutes last season
Domen Petrovic no D1 minutes last season

Returns 79% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.