CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceLavietes Pavilion, Cambridge, MA
Boston U
Efficiency #237
2025-26: 17-17 · 12-9 conf
@
Harvard
Efficiency #133
2025-26: 17-12 · 10-5 conf
Tue, Nov 24 · 7:00 PM ET
66.2
win 28%
Projected
73.1
win 72%
No line posted yet.
Model: HARV −6.9 · total 139.2 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Harvard 65.6, Boston U 65.5 → 62.8 possessions
−12.0
Harvard offense vs Boston U defense
+3.2
Boston U offense vs Harvard defense
−0.1
Projected total
139.2
Axis starts at 130 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Harvard offense vs Boston U defense
+3.2
Boston U offense vs Harvard defense
+0.1
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.6
Harvard by 6.9
6.9
Boston U side ◂▸ Harvard side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 139.3 against a projected 139.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Harvard.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 62.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Harvard is the faster team (63.9, #357 of 365) and Boston U the slower (63.5, #361). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
62.8
per team, 40 min
Projected total
139.2
model
Projected team totals
66.2 / 73.1
Boston U / Harvard
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
65.5#357
Boston U
65.6#354
Harvard

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Half-court grind
Harvard averages 63.9 possessions per 40, Boston U 63.5. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 62 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageBoston U
Where Boston U scores: shooting
Boston U shoots an effective 57.5% (#11); Harvard allows 50.4% (#122). Expect about 54.4%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageHarvard
Where Harvard scores: shooting
Harvard shoots an effective 53.2% (#94); Boston U allows 53.6% (#288). Expect about 53.6%, 2.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversHarvard
Harvard protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for Harvard's offense.
GlassHarvard
Harvard gets out-rebounded
Projected offensive rebound rate of 26.7% is worth roughly -2.2 points per 100 possessions against Harvard's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Boston U, Boston U's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Boston U at about 42.4% of its shots from three, Harvard about 40.8%.
Boston U has the ball
OffenseHarvard allowsvs D1 avg
57.5% #11
50.4% #122
+4.5 pt/100
17.8% #255
17.1% #141
-0.9 pt/100
28.0% #269
28.2% #69
-1.7 pt/100
31.4% #270
26.6% #17
-0.8 pt/100
73.4% #157
—
+0.1 pt/100
Boston U net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.1 pts/100
Harvard has the ball
OffenseBoston U allowsvs D1 avg
53.2% #94
53.6% #288
+3.3 pt/100
17.4% #233
13.0% #353
+2.5 pt/100
26.8% #302
28.0% #65
-2.2 pt/100
25.7% #359
30.5% #73
-0.9 pt/100
80.8% #1
—
+0.7 pt/100
Harvard net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Boston Uoffense vsHarvarddefense
Share of shots by zone
Boston U shoots
Harvard allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.0%#7356.4%#9558.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)54.8%#144.9%#29539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)44.4%#2041.3%#28438.0%
Three38.8%#532.6%#9433.7%
Harvardoffense vsBoston Udefense
Share of shots by zone
Harvard shoots
Boston U allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.7%#8054.3%#4458.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.5%#3553.8%#36439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)39.8%#11845.4%#35238.0%
Three34.7%#13536.6%#33033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Boston U
−2.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#298 of 365
Off reb %
28.0%
#269
Def reb %
72.0%
#65
Turnover %
17.8%
#255
Forced TO %
13.0%
#353
FT rate
31.4%
#270
FT allowed
30.5%
#73
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.9
Ball security−0.7
Forcing turnovers−2.5
Foul shots drawn−0.9
Foul shots allowed+1.2
Harvard
−0.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#212 of 365
Off reb %
26.8%
#302
Def reb %
71.8%
#69
Turnover %
17.4%
#233
Forced TO %
17.1%
#141
FT rate
25.7%
#359
FT allowed
26.6%
#17
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.2
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers+0.3
Foul shots drawn−2.4
Foul shots allowed+2.2

Harvard has more extra scoring chances per game: −0.7 (#212 of 365) to Boston U’s −2.8 (#298).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Boston U2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
20Michael McNairGJr6'5"34-3436.116.95.12.11.361.4%44.4%7.373.8%25.5%
2Chance GladdenGFr6'4"33-3133.414.43.24.52.752.7%34.7%3.086.7%27.9%
6Sam HughesFFr6'6"34-2630.19.03.41.31.152.9%37.2%5.480.6%19.5%
7Azmar AbdullahGSo6'3"34-2229.68.33.41.51.353.7%39.4%4.785.0%18.3%
14Ben DeftyFSo7'0"33-3329.415.16.81.92.369.4%—0.067.1%28.1%
21Donte Tisinger Jr.GFr6'3"28-020.16.42.01.81.057.6%36.9%2.362.1%19.9%
30Ben RoyGSr6'0"12-1226.86.61.52.51.164.5%45.8%2.053.3%14.6%
3Malcolm ChimezieFSr6'8"14-921.45.25.51.10.963.3%—0.050.0%14.7%
32Quinn NielsenFJr6'11"29-08.31.32.50.10.457.1%—0.048.1%12.1%
1Ethan OkwuosaGSr6'3"8-219.34.43.81.00.539.3%25.0%2.566.7%19.0%
15Andrew BhesaniaFFr6'9"3-010.37.72.30.00.071.4%44.4%3.0100.0%27.7%
8Peter CarrGSo6'5"4-04.80.50.50.30.525.0%0.0%0.80.0%21.3%
5Kyrone AlexanderGJr6'5"1-111.01.02.00.01.00.0%0.0%1.050.0%21.7%
0Matai BaptisteGJr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
41Otto LandrumFSr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
25Spencer JoynerGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Boston UHarvard
Efficiency
111.2
107.6
114.5
105.6
65.5
65.6
—
—
Shooting
57.5%
53.2%
56.9%
54.0%
38.8%
34.7%
73.4%
80.8%
31.4%
25.7%
Ball control & glass
17.8%
17.4%
13.0%
17.1%
28.0%
26.8%
28.0%
28.2%
10.8%
10.2%
8.9%
7.4%
Style
43.8%
40.2%
40.7%
43.0%
7.0%
10.7%
53.6%
56.1%
23.5%
19.9%
Roster
2.04
2.45
6'5.6"
6'4.9"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Boston U
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Boston U's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Harvard
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Harvard's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 222025-26Harvard 74 – 75 Boston U(N)

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.