CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteOcean Center, Daytona Beach, FLSunshine Slam
High Point
Efficiency #50
2025-26: 31-5 · 18-1 conf
vs
Duquesne
Efficiency #131
2025-26: 18-15 · 10-10 conf
Tue, Nov 24 · TBD
81.2
win 68%
Projected
75.9
win 32%
No line posted yet.
Model: HPU −5.3 · total 157.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Duquesne 69.3, High Point 70.1 → 71.0 possessions
+5.8
Duquesne offense vs High Point defense
−1.1
High Point offense vs Duquesne defense
+4.2
Projected total
157.1
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Duquesne offense vs High Point defense
−1.1
High Point offense vs Duquesne defense
−4.2
High Point by 5.3
5.3
High Point side ◂▸ Duquesne side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Duquesne.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, High Point is the faster team (71.2, #45 of 365) and Duquesne the slower (69.3, #127). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.0
per team, 40 min
Projected total
157.1
model
Projected team totals
81.2 / 75.9
High Point / Duquesne
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.1#43
High Point
69.3#101
Duquesne

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageDuquesne
Where Duquesne struggles: ball control
Duquesne turns it over on 17.6% of possessions (#245); High Point forces turnovers on 21.3% of opponent possessions (#8). Expect about 20.1%, 3.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageHigh Point
Where High Point scores: shooting
High Point shoots an effective 54.5% (#51); Duquesne allows 52.5% (#241). Expect about 53.8%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.6 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseHigh Point
High Point's ball-hawking
High Point ranks #2 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.6% of Duquesne's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.
Pace
Track meet
Duquesne averages 69.3 possessions per 40, High Point 71.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
TurnoversHigh Point
High Point protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.5% is worth roughly +1.5 points per 100 possessions for High Point's offense.
High Point has the ball
OffenseDuquesne allowsvs D1 avg
54.5% #51
52.5% #241
+3.6 pt/100
12.8% #5
18.3% #84
+1.5 pt/100
31.8% #131
29.6% #142
+0.4 pt/100
40.8% #50
39.9% #300
+0.7 pt/100
74.3% #112
—
+0.2 pt/100
High Point net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +6.3 pts/100
Duquesne has the ball
OffenseHigh Point allowsvs D1 avg
52.3% #131
50.5% #126
+0.3 pt/100
17.6% #245
21.3% #8
-4.1 pt/100
30.4% #184
31.1% #207
+0.2 pt/100
38.3% #94
35.5% #199
+0.2 pt/100
71.5% #220
—
-0.1 pt/100
Duquesne net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
High Pointoffense vsDuquesnedefense
Share of shots by zone
High Point shoots
Duquesne allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim63.0%#5056.2%#9058.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)33.8%#30845.7%#31939.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.6%#32039.4%#21638.0%
Three34.2%#16136.2%#31433.7%
Duquesneoffense vsHigh Pointdefense
Share of shots by zone
Duquesne shoots
High Point allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.1%#15857.7%#13858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.5%#25840.5%#19839.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.7%#16135.3%#8338.0%
Three33.1%#22332.6%#9733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
High Point
+7.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#4 of 365
Off reb %
31.8%
#131
Def reb %
68.9%
#207
Turnover %
12.8%
#5
Forced TO %
21.3%
#8
FT rate
40.8%
#50
FT allowed
35.5%
#199
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.5
Defensive rebounding−0.1
Ball security+2.7
Forcing turnovers+3.1
Foul shots drawn+1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Duquesne
+0.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#161 of 365
Off reb %
30.4%
#184
Def reb %
70.4%
#142
Turnover %
17.6%
#245
Forced TO %
18.3%
#84
FT rate
38.3%
#94
FT allowed
39.9%
#300
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding0.0
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.9
Foul shots allowed−1.2

High Point has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.5 (#4 of 365) to Duquesne’s +0.5 (#161).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

High Point2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
3Rob MartinGSr5'10"35-3527.316.02.03.91.648.2%30.2%4.583.9%32.6%
8Owen AquinoFSr6'8"36-3626.59.35.82.41.857.9%44.4%1.065.3%19.8%
9Conrad MartinezGJr6'0"36-121.88.81.43.31.154.0%32.8%3.384.4%21.8%
15Braden HausenFSo6'7"36-2520.36.72.91.20.454.2%35.8%4.479.2%17.7%
12Scotty WashingtonGSr6'4"36-2918.88.22.80.90.457.3%37.9%2.977.3%21.0%
11Cam'Ron FletcherFSr6'7"27-1122.213.27.10.91.161.1%36.2%3.571.6%28.8%
99Chase JohnstonGSr6'3"33-1113.86.60.80.50.271.2%48.6%4.4100.0%19.3%
2Vincent Brady IIGSr6'3"25-016.45.21.91.60.644.7%24.2%2.680.6%19.7%
24Youssouf SingareFJr6'10"32-07.71.31.90.10.468.2%—0.055.0%9.9%
7Caden MillerFFr6'9"25-07.42.92.20.40.274.4%—0.028.6%18.6%
4Babacar DialloGSr6'6"16-07.92.40.80.60.472.7%0.0%0.143.8%15.2%
19Josh IbukunoluwaFSo6'10"16-06.52.82.00.30.063.0%—0.068.8%18.1%
35David FonvilleGSo6'3"11-03.10.50.30.20.020.0%0.0%0.3100.0%16.6%
14Birgir IrvingFSo6'7"10-01.80.30.10.10.20.0%0.0%0.442.9%36.4%
10Dorian GrosberGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
23Kasen KruegerGFr6'1"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
16Liam CarneyGJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
33Mavrick MillerGSo6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
High PointDuquesne
Efficiency
115.4
109.6
105.8
107.5
70.1
69.3
—
—
Shooting
54.5%
52.3%
57.0%
54.5%
34.2%
33.1%
74.3%
71.5%
40.8%
38.3%
Ball control & glass
12.8%
17.6%
21.3%
18.3%
31.8%
30.4%
31.1%
29.6%
6.8%
9.8%
10.7%
12.5%
Style
43.6%
44.4%
43.6%
42.9%
18.9%
15.7%
52.8%
55.9%
38.5%
31.8%
Roster
3.47
3.43
6'4.2"
6'5.8"
86.6%
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
High Point
Returning minutes: 86.6%Returning production: 82.8%
Lost
  • Terry Anderson 26.9 mpg, 16.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Kasen Krueger no D1 minutes last season
  • Mavrick Miller no D1 minutes last season
  • Dorian Grosber no D1 minutes last season
  • Liam Carney no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 87% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Duquesne
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Duquesne's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.