CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteAcrisure Arena, Palm Springs, CAAcrisure Series

Oregon St

Efficiency #219

2025-26: 17-16 · 10-10 conf

San Francisco

Efficiency #148

2025-26: 17-16 · 9-11 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · 2:00 PM ET

71.5

win 42%

Projected

73.8

win 58%

No line posted yet.

Model: SF −2.2 · total 145.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: San Francisco 67.4, Oregon St 66.9 → 66.0 possessions

−5.1

San Francisco offense vs Oregon St defense

+2.2

Oregon St offense vs San Francisco defense

0.0

Projected total

145.3

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

San Francisco offense vs Oregon St defense

+2.2

Oregon St offense vs San Francisco defense

0.0

San Francisco by 2.2

2.2

Oregon St side ◂▸ San Francisco side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help San Francisco.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 66.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, San Francisco is the faster team (66.7, #256 of 365) and Oregon St the slower (66.2, #284). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

66.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.3

model

Projected team totals

71.5 / 73.8

Oregon St / San Francisco

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

66.9#295

Oregon St

67.4#261

San Francisco

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

Pace

Half-court grind

San Francisco averages 66.7 possessions per 40, Oregon St 66.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageOregon St

Where Oregon St struggles: the offensive glass

Oregon St rebounds 26.8% of its own misses (#303); San Francisco lets opponents grab 29.0% of their own misses (#105). Expect about 27.2%, 3.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSan Francisco

Where San Francisco scores: ball control

San Francisco turns it over on 15.8% of possessions (#125); Oregon St forces turnovers on 15.3% of opponent possessions (#262). Expect about 15.3%, 1.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.8 points per 100 possessions.

ClashOregon St

Style clash: 3-point volume

Oregon St takes 44.3% of its shots from three; San Francisco runs teams off the line (35.8% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 40.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

ClashOregon St

Strength vs strength: free-throw rate

Oregon St (#20 in free-throw rate) against San Francisco (#51 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 35.7%. Historically San Francisco's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.50 vs 0.61).

Oregon St has the ball

OffenseSan Francisco allowsvs D1 avg

50.5% #216

50.8% #143

-1.1 pt/100

17.7% #253

14.1% #330

+1.4 pt/100

26.8% #303

29.0% #105

-2.0 pt/100

43.1% #20

29.6% #51

+0.1 pt/100

77.2% #30

—

+0.4 pt/100

Oregon St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.1 pts/100

San Francisco has the ball

OffenseOregon St allowsvs D1 avg

51.2% #184

50.3% #119

-0.7 pt/100

15.8% #125

15.3% #262

+1.8 pt/100

31.3% #148

32.1% #265

+0.9 pt/100

40.1% #59

35.1% #180

+0.3 pt/100

70.9% #242

—

-0.1 pt/100

San Francisco net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Oregon Stoffense vsSan Franciscodefense

Share of shots by zone

Oregon St shoots

34.3

5.1

16.6

43.9

San Francisco allows

37.7

8.4

18.3

35.6

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	56.6%#253	59.3%#205	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.1%#267	45.5%#312	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.0%#220	35.0%#78	38.0%
Three	35.0%#115	34.1%#187	33.7%

San Franciscooffense vsOregon Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

San Francisco shoots

34.3

4.9

14.3

46.5

Oregon St allows

38.6

5.9

13.6

41.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#229	56.0%#85	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	41.5%#132	42.5%#237	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	35.4%#278	41.0%#275	38.0%
Three	34.6%#140	32.9%#116	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Oregon St

−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#239 of 365

Off reb %

26.8%

#303

Def reb %

67.9%

#265

Turnover %

17.7%

#253

Forced TO %

15.3%

#262

FT rate

43.1%

#20

FT allowed

35.1%

#180

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.2

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn+2.1

Foul shots allowed0.0

San Francisco

+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#78 of 365

Off reb %

31.3%

#148

Def reb %

71.0%

#105

Turnover %

15.8%

#125

Forced TO %

14.1%

#330

FT rate

40.1%

#59

FT allowed

29.6%

#51

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.3

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+0.7

Forcing turnovers−1.8

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed+1.5

San Francisco has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#78 of 365) to Oregon St’s −1.1 (#239).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Oregon St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Josiah Lake II	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	34.2	13.1	4.1	4.2	2.3	52.9%	38.1%	2.9	82.4%	23.2%
13	Isaiah Sy	F	Jr	6'7"	33-29	28.0	10.0	4.6	1.7	1.3	45.8%	35.4%	5.5	87.1%	23.6%
0	Dez White	G	Jr	6'2"	30-28	29.6	9.7	2.7	2.1	1.3	50.6%	37.9%	5.8	79.1%	21.4%
24	Johan Munch	F	So	6'11"	31-23	21.1	7.9	5.1	1.0	1.5	53.0%	12.5%	0.3	63.5%	24.5%
37	Olavi Suutela	F	Fr	6'10"	33-18	17.5	5.5	2.7	0.8	1.0	62.5%	36.7%	0.9	65.5%	18.3%
7	Keziah Ekissi	G	Fr	6'3"	27-1	17.4	4.7	1.7	1.8	1.1	42.5%	34.0%	1.7	64.6%	21.1%
26	Matija Samar	G	Fr	6'6"	28-5	16.4	4.7	1.9	1.4	0.8	42.3%	28.9%	3.2	91.7%	21.9%
40	Noah Amenhauser	C	Jr	7'2"	29-8	12.2	5.1	2.2	0.4	0.8	57.7%	0.0%	0.0	70.0%	24.6%
3	Malcolm Christie	G	Sr	6'5"	15-0	13.2	4.6	1.0	0.2	0.3	54.3%	39.6%	3.5	75.0%	20.3%
1	Ja'Quavis Williford	G	So	6'7"	11-0	5.7	2.2	0.8	0.0	0.2	32.8%	15.8%	1.7	75.0%	34.2%
12	Stephen Olowoniyi	F	Jr	6'8"	8-0	4.6	1.4	0.5	0.0	0.3	41.7%	—	0.0	50.0%	23.9%
6	Kaan Yarkut	F	So	6'6"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	66.9%
8	Gavin Marrs	F	Jr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

San Francisco2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Ryan Beasley	G	Jr	5'11"	31-31	33.2	13.6	3.4	4.0	1.6	48.4%	32.7%	4.8	82.7%	25.3%
5	Tyrone Riley IV	G	So	6'6"	31-31	31.8	12.2	4.8	1.2	0.9	54.2%	36.8%	3.7	70.7%	22.1%
7	Vukasin Masic	G	Sr	6'5"	33-21	21.7	5.3	1.6	2.0	1.0	47.1%	29.1%	3.3	69.6%	18.0%
13	Legend Smiley	G	Fr	6'5"	33-14	21.3	8.1	1.9	0.6	0.8	59.8%	42.0%	4.0	87.5%	20.2%
35	Junjie Wang	F	Jr	6'9"	33-24	20.2	8.5	3.0	0.8	1.2	51.7%	34.2%	3.4	75.3%	25.7%
1	Mookie Cook	F	Jr	6'6"	25-5	20.8	7.6	4.2	1.5	1.7	52.4%	39.7%	2.3	71.4%	24.4%
14	Veniamin Abosi	G	So	6'6"	24-1	17.6	5.0	4.1	1.2	1.3	52.8%	40.4%	2.2	68.3%	19.4%
10	Saba Gigiberia	C	Sr	7'2"	26-0	6.3	2.2	2.7	0.6	0.5	44.6%	0.0%	0.0	34.8%	28.8%
2	Aidan Braccia	G	Jr	6'1"	15-0	6.0	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1	23.5%	13.3%	1.0	66.7%	14.0%
23	Weilun Zhao	G	Fr	6'0"	14-0	5.4	1.3	0.2	1.1	0.6	26.3%	0.0%	0.9	72.7%	25.0%
21	Sean Blakely Drummond	G	Fr	6'4"	5-0	2.0	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	33.3%	0.0%	0.4	0.0%	26.8%
12	Isa Silva	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
3	Ndewedo Newbury	F	Sr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Oregon St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Josiah Lake II	G	Jr	6'2"	33-33	34.2	13.1	4.1	4.2	2.3	52.9%	38.1%	2.9	82.4%	23.2%
13	Isaiah Sy	F	Jr	6'7"	33-29	28.0	10.0	4.6	1.7	1.3	45.8%	35.4%	5.5	87.1%	23.6%
0	Dez White	G	Jr	6'2"	30-28	29.6	9.7	2.7	2.1	1.3	50.6%	37.9%	5.8	79.1%	21.4%
24	Johan Munch	F	So	6'11"	31-23	21.1	7.9	5.1	1.0	1.5	53.0%	12.5%	0.3	63.5%	24.5%
37	Olavi Suutela	F	Fr	6'10"	33-18	17.5	5.5	2.7	0.8	1.0	62.5%	36.7%	0.9	65.5%	18.3%
7	Keziah Ekissi	G	Fr	6'3"	27-1	17.4	4.7	1.7	1.8	1.1	42.5%	34.0%	1.7	64.6%	21.1%
26	Matija Samar	G	Fr	6'6"	28-5	16.4	4.7	1.9	1.4	0.8	42.3%	28.9%	3.2	91.7%	21.9%
40	Noah Amenhauser	C	Jr	7'2"	29-8	12.2	5.1	2.2	0.4	0.8	57.7%	0.0%	0.0	70.0%	24.6%
3	Malcolm Christie	G	Sr	6'5"	15-0	13.2	4.6	1.0	0.2	0.3	54.3%	39.6%	3.5	75.0%	20.3%
1	Ja'Quavis Williford	G	So	6'7"	11-0	5.7	2.2	0.8	0.0	0.2	32.8%	15.8%	1.7	75.0%	34.2%
12	Stephen Olowoniyi	F	Jr	6'8"	8-0	4.6	1.4	0.5	0.0	0.3	41.7%	—	0.0	50.0%	23.9%
6	Kaan Yarkut	F	So	6'6"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	66.9%
8	Gavin Marrs	F	Jr	7'0"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Oregon St

Against the spread

Season

15-18

Home

8-9

Road

5-6

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +6.5

Covered 2 straightCovered 5 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-14

Home

9-8

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +0.8

Under in the last gameOver in 4 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 9	#12GonzagaAdjEM #8	N	L 56–65	+20.5	W+11.5	145.0	U121	88.7	102.9	63.1
Mar 8	San FranciscoAdjEM #148	N	W 78–77	+3.5	W+4.5	145.5	O155	118.1	116.6	66.0
Feb 28	Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	A	L 72–93	+16.5	L−4.5	153.0	O165	105.2	135.8	68.5
Feb 25	San DiegoAdjEM #269	H	W 92–82 OT	−6.5	W+3.5	144.0	O174	123.8	110.3	74.3
Feb 21	PepperdineAdjEM #307	H	W 83–73	−9.0	W+1.0	148.5	O156	115.3	101.4	72.0
Feb 15	Seattle UAdjEM #125	A	L 50–60	+7.0	L−3.0	136.0	U110	78.0	93.6	64.1
Feb 12	San FranciscoAdjEM #148	A	W 90–63	+9.0	W+36.0	141.0	O153	148.3	103.8	60.7
Feb 7	#6GonzagaAdjEM #8	H	L 61–81	+18.5	L−1.5	148.0	U142	109.8	145.7	55.6
Feb 4	Washington StAdjEM #174	H	W 74–64	+2.0	W+12.0	148.0	U138	109.5	94.7	67.6
Jan 31	San DiegoAdjEM #269	A	W 78–76 OT	+3.5	W+5.5	150.5	O154	95.4	93.0	81.8

San Francisco

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

5-10

Road

6-5

Last 10

4-6

avg cover −5.7

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

18-14

Home

9-6

Road

5-6

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +6.7

Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 1 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	Oregon StAdjEM #219	N	L 77–78	−3.5	L−4.5	145.5	O155	116.6	118.1	66.0
Mar 7	PortlandAdjEM #259	N	W 82–65	−7.0	W+10.0	144.5	O147	122.3	97.0	67.0
Feb 28	PacificAdjEM #126	A	W 72–61	+4.5	W+15.5	143.5	U133	111.7	94.6	64.5
Feb 21	Santa ClaraAdjEM #33	H	L 73–94	+6.5	L−14.5	159.0	O167	97.8	125.9	74.7
Feb 18	#11GonzagaAdjEM #8	H	L 59–80	+15.5	L−5.5	151.0	U139	87.9	119.2	67.1
Feb 15	San DiegoAdjEM #269	A	W 92–79	−5.0	W+8.0	148.0	O171	133.2	114.3	69.1
Feb 12	Oregon StAdjEM #219	H	L 63–90	−9.0	L−36.0	141.0	O153	103.8	148.3	60.7
Feb 7	Saint Mary'sAdjEM #23	A	L 54–79	+11.5	L−13.5	143.0	U133	84.1	123.1	64.2
Feb 4	LMUAdjEM #183	H	L 75–84	−8.0	L−17.0	146.0	O159	108.8	121.8	69.0
Jan 31	PacificAdjEM #126	H	W 87–82	−4.0	W+1.0	138.0	O169	128.4	121.1	67.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Oregon StSan Francisco

Efficiency

107.7

110.5

109.8

109.2

66.9

67.4

—

Shooting

50.5%

51.2%

48.8%

50.7%

35.0%

34.6%

77.2%

70.9%

43.1%

40.1%

Ball control & glass

17.7%

15.8%

15.3%

14.1%

26.8%

31.3%

32.1%

29.0%

10.7%

9.2%

9.3%

8.7%

Style

44.3%

46.1%

34.1%

36.9%

9.2%

10.1%

61.2%

55.6%

34.1%

34.2%

Roster

2.39

2.61

6'6"

6'4.8"

85.8%

81.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Oregon St

Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 82.5%

Lost

Jorge Diaz Graham 17.4 mpg, 5.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Yaak Yaak 11.3 mpg, 5.0 ppg · transferred to Oklahoma

Added

Gavin Marrs no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

San Francisco

Returning minutes: 81.0%Returning production: 76.4%

Lost

David Fuchs 21.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg · transferred to Clemson
Guillermo Diaz Graham 17.2 mpg, 5.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Ndewedo Newbury no D1 minutes last season
Isa Silva no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 81% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sun, Mar 8	2025-26	San Francisco 77 – 78 Oregon St(N)
Thu, Feb 12	2025-26	Oregon St 90 – 63 San Francisco
Tue, Dec 30	2025-26	San Francisco 62 – 70 Oregon St

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.