CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteT-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NVPlayers Era Sixteen
Gonzaga
Efficiency #8
2025-26: 31-4 · 18-2 conf
vs
Kansas St
Efficiency #128
2025-26: 12-20 · 3-16 conf
Wed, Nov 25 · 12:30 AM ET
84.4
win 86%
Projected
71.9
win 14%
No line posted yet.
Model: GONZ −12.4 · total 156.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Kansas St 71.8, Gonzaga 69.2 → 72.7 possessions
+9.6
Kansas St offense vs Gonzaga defense
−7.0
Gonzaga offense vs Kansas St defense
+5.4
Projected total
156.3
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Kansas St offense vs Gonzaga defense
−7.0
Gonzaga offense vs Kansas St defense
−5.4
Gonzaga by 12.4
12.4
Gonzaga side ◂▸ Kansas St side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 156.2 against a projected 156.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kansas St.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas St is the faster team (73.8, #7 of 365) and Gonzaga the slower (70.2, #88). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
156.3
model
Projected team totals
84.4 / 71.9
Gonzaga / Kansas St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.2#103
Gonzaga
71.8#7
Kansas St
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
Kansas St averages 73.8 possessions per 40, Gonzaga 70.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageGonzaga
Where Gonzaga scores: shooting
Gonzaga shoots an effective 55.6% (#25); Kansas St allows 52.5% (#239). Expect about 54.4%, 3.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.5 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageKansas St
Where Kansas St struggles: ball control
Kansas St turns it over on 17.4% of possessions (#234); Gonzaga forces turnovers on 20.0% of opponent possessions (#24). Expect about 19.2%, 2.4 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
GlassGonzaga
Gonzaga owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.2% is worth roughly +2.9 points per 100 possessions for Gonzaga's offense.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas St, Gonzaga's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Gonzaga at about 31.9% of its shots from three, Kansas St about 42.7%.
TurnoversGonzaga
Gonzaga protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 15.2% is worth roughly +2.0 points per 100 possessions for Gonzaga's offense.
Gonzaga has the ball
OffenseKansas St allowsvs D1 avg
55.6% #25
52.5% #239
+4.5 pt/100
13.6% #16
17.1% #144
+2.0 pt/100
34.8% #52
33.9% #317
+2.9 pt/100
31.0% #282
35.2% #183
-0.2 pt/100
70.7% #248
—
-0.1 pt/100
Gonzaga net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +9.0 pts/100
Kansas St has the ball
OffenseGonzaga allowsvs D1 avg
53.3% #88
46.3% #15
-2.0 pt/100
17.4% #234
20.0% #24
-3.0 pt/100
29.2% #229
25.7% #16
-1.9 pt/100
26.9% #351
30.9% #81
-0.8 pt/100
71.0% #241
—
-0.1 pt/100
Kansas St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -7.8 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersGonzagaoffense vsKansas Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Gonzaga shoots
40.0
7.3
21.8
30.9
Kansas St allows
39.3
6.6
15.8
38.2
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 65.5%#16 | 60.6%#255 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.4%#73 | 40.8%#205 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 47.6%#3 | 42.0%#301 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.3%#212 | 33.7%#166 | 33.7% |
Kansas Stoffense vsGonzagadefense
Share of shots by zone
Kansas St shoots
38.1
7.9
13.9
40.1
Gonzaga allows
29.2
9.2
18.8
42.8
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.6%#60 | 56.8%#109 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 36.6%#254 | 39.7%#186 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 31.9%#341 | 31.6%#14 | 38.0% |
| Three | 36.4%#43 | 30.6%#23 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersGonzaga
+7.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#5 of 365
Off reb %
34.8%
#52
Def reb %
74.3%
#16
Turnover %
13.6%
#16
Forced TO %
20.0%
#24
FT rate
31.0%
#282
FT allowed
30.9%
#81
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.4
Defensive rebounding+1.6
Ball security+2.1
Forcing turnovers+2.3
Foul shots drawn−1.0
Foul shots allowed+1.1
Kansas St
−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#323 of 365
Off reb %
29.2%
#229
Def reb %
66.1%
#317
Turnover %
17.4%
#234
Forced TO %
17.1%
#144
FT rate
26.9%
#351
FT allowed
35.2%
#183
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.4
Defensive rebounding−1.1
Ball security−0.5
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn−2.1
Foul shots allowed0.0
Gonzaga has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.5 (#5 of 365) to Kansas St’s −3.7 (#323).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Gonzaga2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Emmanuel Innocenti | F | Jr | 6'5" | 35-29 | 24.4 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 53.4% | 28.4% | 2.3 | 60.6% | 14.2% | |
| 17 | Mario Saint-Supery | G | Fr | 6'3" | 35-17 | 23.1 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 51.5% | 40.3% | 3.4 | 87.8% | 22.5% | |
| 23 | Adam Miller | G | Sr | 6'3" | 35-25 | 19.3 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 51.4% | 30.2% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 21.6% | |
| 4 | Davis Fogle | G | Fr | 6'7" | 29-1 | 17.3 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 55.5% | 35.0% | 1.4 | 72.3% | 28.3% | |
| 34 | Braden Huff | F | Jr | 6'10" | 18-18 | 25.5 | 17.8 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 67.8% | 33.3% | 1.2 | 57.5% | 30.4% | |
| 2 | Steele Venters | G | Sr | 6'7" | 27-10 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 54.4% | 36.7% | 3.6 | 83.3% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | Ismaila Diagne | C | So | 7'0" | 28-3 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 11.8% | |
| 35 | Noah Haaland | F | Sr | 6'9" | 9-1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 64.3% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 23.4% | |
| 10 | Joaquim ArauzMoore | G | So | 6'1" | 8-0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 0.4 | 0.0% | 12.0% | |
| 14 | Alonzo Metz | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 32 | Parker Jefferson | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Kansas St2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Kansas St's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | P.J. Haggerty | G | Jr | 6'4" | 31-31 | 35.2 | 23.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 52.5% | 35.1% | 3.7 | 70.1% | 37.3% | |
| 34 | Nate Johnson | G | Sr | 6'2" | 32-32 | 32.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 55.0% | 40.8% | 4.9 | 85.0% | 22.0% | |
| 10 | David Castillo | G | So | 6'1" | 32-16 | 28.1 | 10.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 49.7% | 35.2% | 5.0 | 82.0% | 21.6% | |
| 15 | Taj Manning | F | Jr | 6'7" | 30-17 | 20.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 51.0% | 18.5% | 0.9 | 69.7% | 12.1% | |
| 21 | Khamari McGriff | F | Sr | 6'9" | 28-28 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 68.4% | 20.0% | 0.2 | 66.7% | 21.5% | |
| 3 | C.J. Jones | G | Sr | 6'5" | 31-1 | 17.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 37.1% | 23.2% | 2.2 | 83.3% | 16.7% | |
| 1 | Abdi Bashir Jr. | G | Jr | 6'7" | 18-18 | 24.5 | 13.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 59.7% | 44.4% | 8.4 | 68.8% | 26.3% | |
| 22 | Dorin Buca | C | Jr | 7'2" | 27-4 | 12.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 52.2% | 18.2% | 0.4 | 53.3% | 17.7% | |
| 47 | Andrej Kostic | F | Fr | 6'6" | 23-0 | 13.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 51.9% | 37.5% | 3.5 | 76.9% | 22.8% | |
| 0 | Elias Rapieque | F | Jr | 6'9" | 20-12 | 15.3 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 54.0% | 40.0% | 1.3 | 31.6% | 14.8% | |
| 14 | Mobi Ikegwuruka | G | Jr | 6'6" | 10-1 | 12.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 57.1% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 9.6% | |
| 6 | Marcus Johnson | F | Sr | 6'7" | 14-0 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 48.5% | 35.5% | 2.2 | 66.7% | 27.6% | |
| 23 | Stephen Osei | F | So | 6'10" | 3-0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.3% | — | 0.0 | — | 34.0% | |
| 2 | Exavier Wilson | G | Fr | 6'1" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Gonzaga2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Emmanuel Innocenti | F | Jr | 6'5" | 35-29 | 24.4 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 53.4% | 28.4% | 2.3 | 60.6% | 14.2% | |
| 17 | Mario Saint-Supery | G | Fr | 6'3" | 35-17 | 23.1 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 51.5% | 40.3% | 3.4 | 87.8% | 22.5% | |
| 23 | Adam Miller | G | Sr | 6'3" | 35-25 | 19.3 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 51.4% | 30.2% | 3.7 | 75.0% | 21.6% | |
| 4 | Davis Fogle | G | Fr | 6'7" | 29-1 | 17.3 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 55.5% | 35.0% | 1.4 | 72.3% | 28.3% | |
| 34 | Braden Huff | F | Jr | 6'10" | 18-18 | 25.5 | 17.8 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 67.8% | 33.3% | 1.2 | 57.5% | 30.4% | |
| 2 | Steele Venters | G | Sr | 6'7" | 27-10 | 15.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 54.4% | 36.7% | 3.6 | 83.3% | 18.6% | |
| 24 | Ismaila Diagne | C | So | 7'0" | 28-3 | 6.9 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 40.0% | 11.8% | |
| 35 | Noah Haaland | F | Sr | 6'9" | 9-1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 64.3% | 0.0% | 0.4 | 100.0% | 23.4% | |
| 10 | Joaquim ArauzMoore | G | So | 6'1" | 8-0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 0.4 | 0.0% | 12.0% | |
| 14 | Alonzo Metz | G | Fr | 5'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 32 | Parker Jefferson | F | Fr | 6'9" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Gonzaga
Against the spread
Season
18-16-1
Home
8-7
Road
6-4
Last 10
5-5
avg cover −2.7
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 5 of 10 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 6 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
9-24-2
Home
2-12-1
Road
3-6-1
Last 10
1-9
avg vs total −10.2
Under 8 straightOver in 1 of 10 as a favoriteOver in 0 of 6 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21 | #11Texas | N | L 68–74 | −6.0 | L−12.0 | 147.5 | U142 | 106.3 | 115.6 | 64.0 |
| Mar 19 | #14Kennesaw St | N | W 73–64 | −20.5 | L−11.5 | 151.5 | U137 | 105.6 | 92.6 | 69.1 |
| Mar 10 | Santa Clara | N | W 79–68 | −8.0 | W+3.0 | 156.5 | U147 | 130.9 | 112.7 | 60.4 |
| Mar 9 | Oregon St | N | W 65–56 | −20.5 | L−11.5 | 145.0 | U121 | 102.9 | 88.7 | 63.1 |
| Feb 28 | Saint Mary's | A | L 59–70 | −2.5 | L−13.5 | 143.0 | U129 | 92.2 | 109.4 | 64.0 |
| Feb 25 | Portland | H | W 89–48 | −27.0 | W+14.0 | 150.0 | U137 | 131.9 | 71.2 | 67.5 |
| Feb 21 | Pacific | H | W 71–62 | −21.5 | L−12.5 | 143.5 | U133 | 116.0 | 101.3 | 61.2 |
| Feb 18 | San Francisco | A | W 80–59 | −15.5 | W+5.5 | 151.0 | U139 | 119.2 | 87.9 | 67.1 |
| Feb 14 | Santa Clara | A | W 94–86 | −5.0 | W+3.0 | 158.5 | O180 | 123.1 | 112.6 | 76.4 |
| Feb 10 | Washington St | H | W 83–53 | −21.5 | W+8.5 | 156.0 | U136 | 117.1 | 74.8 | 70.9 |
Kansas St
Against the spread
Season
12-20
Home
5-13
Road
5-6
Last 10
4-6
avg cover −1.4
Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 4 of 10 as an underdogCovered 2 of 5 with a line of 10+
Over / under
Season
17-15
Home
9-9
Road
5-6
Last 10
6-4
avg vs total +5.0
Over 2 straightOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 4 of 5 with a line of 10+
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | BYU | N | L 91–105 | +11.0 | L−3.0 | 168.5 | O196 | 117.0 | 135.0 | 77.8 |
| Mar 7 | #14Kansas | A | L 85–104 | +17.5 | L−1.5 | 157.0 | O189 | 108.9 | 133.2 | 78.0 |
| Mar 3 | West Virginia | H | W 65–63 | +4.0 | W+6.0 | 141.5 | U128 | 97.4 | 94.4 | 66.7 |
| Feb 28 | TCU | H | L 68–77 | +3.0 | L−6.0 | 159.5 | U145 | 94.3 | 106.8 | 72.1 |
| Feb 25 | Colorado | A | L 70–79 | +6.0 | L−3.0 | 163.0 | U149 | 87.0 | 98.2 | 80.4 |
| Feb 21 | #13Texas Tech | A | L 72–100 | +12.5 | L−15.5 | 158.5 | O172 | 104.3 | 144.9 | 69.0 |
| Feb 17 | Baylor | H | W 90–74 | +3.5 | W+19.5 | 159.0 | O164 | 111.1 | 91.3 | 81.0 |
| Feb 14 | #3Houston | A | L 64–78 | +22.0 | W+8.0 | 146.0 | U142 | 84.7 | 103.2 | 75.6 |
| Feb 11 | Cincinnati | H | L 62–91 | +2.5 | L−26.5 | 147.0 | O153 | 88.0 | 129.2 | 70.4 |
| Feb 7 | TCU | A | L 82–84 | +10.0 | W+8.0 | 154.0 | O166 | 114.8 | 117.6 | 71.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeGonzagaKansas St
Efficiency
116.7
110.1
97.3
107.7
69.2
71.8
—
—
Shooting
55.6%
53.3%
58.2%
52.4%
33.3%
36.4%
70.7%
71.0%
31.0%
26.9%
Ball control & glass
13.6%
17.4%
20.0%
17.1%
34.8%
29.2%
25.7%
33.9%
7.6%
10.0%
6.0%
11.0%
Style
30.8%
40.9%
52.5%
44.5%
17.7%
18.3%
57.5%
57.7%
40.4%
29.0%
Roster
2.57
3.11
6'5.7"
6'5.2"
56.4%
—
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputGonzaga
Returning minutes: 56.4%Returning production: 50.8%
Lost
- Graham Ike 27.7 mpg, 17.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Tyon Grant-Foster 21.5 mpg, 11.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Jalen Warley 20.7 mpg, 6.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Braeden Smith 17.1 mpg, 5.1 ppg · transferred to Notre Dame
- Cade Orness 0.6 mpg, 0.1 ppg · transferred to Mount St Marys
Added
- Alonzo Metz no D1 minutes last season
- Parker Jefferson no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 56% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5.
Kansas St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Kansas St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.
Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.