CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteAcrisure Arena, Palm Springs, CAAcrisure Series
Grand Canyon
Efficiency #65
2025-26: 20-12 · 13-8 conf
vs
Saint Louis
Efficiency #20
2025-26: 29-6 · 16-4 conf
Tue, Nov 24 · 9:30 PM ET
73.3
win 33%
Projected
78.4
win 67%
No line posted yet.
Model: SLU −5.1 · total 151.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Saint Louis 70.7, Grand Canyon 68.8 → 71.2 possessions
+6.2
Saint Louis offense vs Grand Canyon defense
+1.2
Grand Canyon offense vs Saint Louis defense
−3.9
Projected total
151.8
Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Saint Louis offense vs Grand Canyon defense
+1.2
Grand Canyon offense vs Saint Louis defense
+3.9
Saint Louis by 5.1
5.1
Grand Canyon side ◂▸ Saint Louis side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 151.7 against a projected 151.8. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Saint Louis.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 71.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Saint Louis is the faster team (72.1, #22 of 365) and Grand Canyon the slower (69.0, #150). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
71.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
151.8
model
Projected team totals
73.3 / 78.4
Grand Canyon / Saint Louis
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.8#139
Grand Canyon
70.7#21
Saint Louis

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageSaint Louis
Where Saint Louis scores: shooting
Saint Louis shoots an effective 59.7% (#2); Grand Canyon allows 47.4% (#28). Expect about 54.2%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.2 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageGrand Canyon
Where Grand Canyon struggles: shooting
Grand Canyon shoots an effective 51.7% (#162); Saint Louis allows 45.2% (#3). Expect about 48.4%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.1 points per 100 possessions.
Pace
Track meet
Saint Louis averages 72.1 possessions per 40, Grand Canyon 69.0. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 71 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashSaint Louis
Strength vs strength: 2-point shooting
Saint Louis (#11 in 2-point shooting) against Grand Canyon (#32 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 54.0%. Historically Saint Louis's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.61 vs 0.55).
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Saint Louis, Saint Louis's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Grand Canyon at about 40.6% of its shots from three, Saint Louis about 43.2%.
ClashSaint Louis
Strength vs strength: 3-point shooting
Saint Louis (#2 in 3-point shooting) against Grand Canyon (#60 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 35.0%. Historically Saint Louis's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.25 vs 0.16).
Grand Canyon has the ball
OffenseSaint Louis allowsvs D1 avg
51.7% #162
45.2% #3
-4.1 pt/100
17.6% #246
15.9% #224
+0.0 pt/100
31.3% #150
27.2% #43
-0.5 pt/100
39.5% #67
37.1% #242
+0.4 pt/100
75.3% #72
—
+0.3 pt/100
Grand Canyon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.9 pts/100
Saint Louis has the ball
OffenseGrand Canyon allowsvs D1 avg
59.7% #2
47.4% #28
+4.2 pt/100
17.2% #217
17.3% #129
-0.7 pt/100
30.7% #173
25.3% #12
-1.4 pt/100
33.7% #221
39.0% #285
+0.2 pt/100
74.1% #128
—
+0.1 pt/100
Saint Louis net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Grand Canyonoffense vsSaint Louisdefense
Share of shots by zone
Grand Canyon shoots
Saint Louis allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim60.6%#10448.0%#258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)30.4%#34535.0%#5739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.7%#24037.0%#13238.0%
Three31.8%#28630.3%#1433.7%
Saint Louisoffense vsGrand Canyondefense
Share of shots by zone
Saint Louis shoots
Grand Canyon allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim61.9%#7651.6%#1258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)43.2%#9934.4%#5039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)33.8%#31742.6%#32038.0%
Three39.9%#231.9%#6033.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Grand Canyon
+2.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#96 of 365
Off reb %
31.3%
#150
Def reb %
74.7%
#12
Turnover %
17.6%
#246
Forced TO %
17.3%
#129
FT rate
39.5%
#67
FT allowed
39.0%
#285
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.3
Defensive rebounding+1.7
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.4
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−1.0
Saint Louis
−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#196 of 365
Off reb %
30.7%
#173
Def reb %
72.8%
#43
Turnover %
17.2%
#217
Forced TO %
15.9%
#224
FT rate
33.7%
#221
FT allowed
37.1%
#242
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.1
Defensive rebounding+1.1
Ball security−0.3
Forcing turnovers−0.5
Foul shots drawn−0.3
Foul shots allowed−0.5

Grand Canyon has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.0 (#96 of 365) to Saint Louis’s −0.4 (#196).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Grand Canyon2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
31Nana Owusu-AnaneFSr6'8"32-3232.59.38.51.81.252.1%35.9%3.772.6%17.2%
2Makaih WilliamsGJr6'2"32-2027.114.02.72.51.751.3%33.5%5.278.6%30.3%
5Brian Moore Jr.GSr6'2"29-2827.69.52.42.61.654.0%40.8%1.769.7%20.7%
8Dusty StromerGJr6'6"32-522.66.42.71.11.045.7%33.3%3.680.0%19.1%
17Efe DemirelCFr7'1"32-2822.58.55.30.31.363.0%—0.075.0%20.0%
11Caleb ShawGJr6'6"21-1120.97.83.81.41.358.8%37.0%3.564.7%21.7%
32Wilhelm BreidenbachFSr6'10"29-412.42.72.30.70.641.3%13.3%1.080.6%15.3%
14Dennis EvansCFr7'2"24-08.82.82.00.00.466.7%—0.075.0%15.8%
22Kaleb SmithFJr6'10"21-08.41.41.20.30.421.1%10.5%0.977.8%17.6%
9Evan BoisdurGFr6'1"13-05.61.30.40.30.333.3%16.7%0.975.0%21.2%
23Cole PepeGFr6'4"6-01.70.50.50.00.050.0%33.3%0.5—17.1%
3Braylon JohnsonGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
21Jack SawyerFSo6'8"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Luke ShawGFr6'3"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
Grand CanyonSaint Louis
Efficiency
109.0
117.2
101.5
102.5
68.8
70.7
—
—
Shooting
51.7%
59.7%
54.2%
59.5%
31.8%
39.9%
75.3%
74.1%
39.5%
33.7%
Ball control & glass
17.6%
17.2%
17.3%
15.9%
31.3%
30.7%
25.3%
27.2%
9.3%
10.1%
7.9%
11.2%
Style
38.9%
45.1%
43.2%
44.4%
13.9%
18.7%
49.6%
60.4%
29.1%
39.3%
Roster
3.03
2.52
6'6.7"
6'5"
84.3%
66.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Grand Canyon
Returning minutes: 84.3%Returning production: 79.1%
Lost
  • Jaden Henley 31.5 mpg, 17.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Luke Shaw no D1 minutes last season
  • Jack Sawyer no D1 minutes last season
  • Braylon Johnson no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Saint Louis
Returning minutes: 66.8%Returning production: 64.6%
Lost
  • Robbie Avila 26.4 mpg, 12.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Dion Brown 23.7 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Brady Dunlap 16.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg · transferred to Georgia
Added
  • Dylan Warlick no D1 minutes last season
  • Luke Laczkowski no D1 minutes last season
  • Kalu Anya no D1 minutes last season
  • Badara Diakite no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 67% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
DateSeasonResult
Sat, Nov 152025-26Grand Canyon 64 – 78 Saint Louis

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.