CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceThe HTC Center, Conway, SC
Campbell
Efficiency #208
2025-26: 16-18 · 10-11 conf
@
Coastal
Efficiency #241
2025-26: 19-13 · 11-8 conf
Tue, Nov 24 · TBD
73.4
win 41%
Projected
76.1
win 59%
No line posted yet.
Model: CCU −2.7 · total 149.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Coastal 68.1, Campbell 69.9 → 69.7 possessions
+3.1
Coastal offense vs Campbell defense
−1.6
Campbell offense vs Coastal defense
−0.2
Projected total
149.5
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Coastal offense vs Campbell defense
−1.6
Campbell offense vs Coastal defense
+0.2
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Coastal by 2.7
2.7
Campbell side ◂▸ Coastal side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +2.6 against +2.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Coastal.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.7, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Campbell is the faster team (70.0, #93 of 365) and Coastal the slower (68.3, #189). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.7
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.5
model
Projected team totals
73.4 / 76.1
Campbell / Coastal
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
69.9#53
Campbell
68.1#200
Coastal

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
ClashCampbell
Style match: ball movement
Campbell creates off the dribble (assists on 44.9% of its baskets); Coastal breaks up passing offenses (assists on 37.7% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 38.0% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageCampbell
Where Campbell struggles: shooting
Campbell shoots an effective 50.1% (#230); Coastal allows 46.8% (#18). Expect about 48.3%, 2.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions.
TurnoversCampbell
Campbell protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.4% is worth roughly +3.0 points per 100 possessions for Campbell's offense.
ClashCoastal
Style clash: 3-point volume
Coastal takes 43.1% of its shots from three; Campbell runs teams off the line (29.9% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 36.2% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
ClashCampbell
Style clash: paint scoring
Campbell scores 46.3% of its points in the paint; Coastal protects the paint (37.1% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 41.7% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
ClashCoastal
Style clash: paint scoring
Coastal gets only 34.5% of its points in the paint; Campbell gives up 50.9% of opponents' points in the paint (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 43.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
Campbell has the ball
OffenseCoastal allowsvs D1 avg
50.1% #230
46.8% #18
-4.2 pt/100
17.6% #241
12.3% #364
+3.0 pt/100
33.5% #77
27.6% #52
+0.5 pt/100
43.5% #16
34.9% #174
+0.5 pt/100
72.5% #190
—
+0.0 pt/100
Campbell net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.3 pts/100
Coastal has the ball
OffenseCampbell allowsvs D1 avg
47.9% #314
53.9% #295
-0.9 pt/100
15.2% #82
17.0% #157
+0.9 pt/100
26.9% #296
32.0% #254
-1.0 pt/100
32.3% #254
37.0% #238
-0.0 pt/100
73.1% #165
—
+0.1 pt/100
Coastal net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.9 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Campbelloffense vsCoastaldefense
Share of shots by zone
Campbell shoots
Coastal allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim57.3%#21848.8%#358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.1%#32945.2%#30239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)35.0%#29238.9%#19838.0%
Three32.3%#26732.8%#10533.7%
Coastaloffense vsCampbelldefense
Share of shots by zone
Coastal shoots
Campbell allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim53.7%#32463.2%#32758.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.3%#21533.7%#4039.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)36.6%#24535.5%#8938.0%
Three33.5%#19635.5%#27733.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Campbell
+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#105 of 365
Off reb %
33.5%
#77
Def reb %
68.0%
#254
Turnover %
17.6%
#241
Forced TO %
17.0%
#157
FT rate
43.5%
#16
FT allowed
37.0%
#238
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.0
Defensive rebounding−0.4
Ball security−0.6
Forcing turnovers+0.2
Foul shots drawn+2.2
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Coastal
−2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#291 of 365
Off reb %
26.9%
#296
Def reb %
72.4%
#52
Turnover %
15.2%
#82
Forced TO %
12.3%
#364
FT rate
32.3%
#254
FT allowed
34.9%
#174
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−1.1
Defensive rebounding+1.0
Ball security+1.1
Forcing turnovers−3.0
Foul shots drawn−0.7
Foul shots allowed+0.1

Campbell has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.9 (#105 of 365) to Coastal’s −2.7 (#291).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Campbell2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
9DJ SmithGSr5'11"34-3334.419.03.52.11.949.1%33.9%8.583.6%31.0%
7Cam GregoryGSr6'5"34-3433.48.03.12.31.252.9%33.1%3.776.5%14.3%
2Jeremiah JohnsonGSo6'4"34-3132.415.23.51.92.151.9%37.4%3.986.5%26.3%
13Dovydas ButkaFSo6'9"31-3133.913.98.52.62.451.0%16.7%1.055.3%26.2%
1Tasos CookGSr6'2"33-824.77.22.01.20.850.3%35.8%3.379.2%17.0%
11Muneer NewtonFSr6'5"34-2719.56.74.90.81.170.7%0.0%0.048.4%17.6%
0Chris Fields Jr.FJr6'7"27-518.69.76.91.62.046.6%7.7%0.564.6%34.2%
22Dominykas ButkaGFr6'6"22-07.21.91.40.40.550.0%22.2%0.462.5%17.5%
5Enoch KalambayGSr6'6"10-08.82.02.40.50.837.0%12.5%1.6—22.4%
4Broc BidwellGSr6'0"11-05.52.20.40.40.461.1%42.9%1.350.0%20.3%
15Terren FrankFSr6'8"6-18.31.70.80.50.533.3%0.0%0.266.7%18.2%
32Daniel MarcellinusFFr6'11"2-03.00.01.00.00.5——0.0—9.8%
12Israel YawFSr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
10Klairus AmirGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
CampbellCoastal
Efficiency
109.3
103.8
110.9
107.3
69.9
68.1
—
—
Shooting
50.1%
47.9%
51.2%
46.1%
32.3%
33.5%
72.5%
73.1%
43.5%
32.3%
Ball control & glass
17.6%
15.2%
17.0%
12.3%
33.5%
26.9%
32.0%
27.6%
9.7%
7.9%
10.5%
7.6%
Style
36.9%
43.1%
46.3%
34.5%
16.1%
10.3%
44.9%
40.4%
22.5%
26.8%
Roster
3.22
3.10
6'4.2"
6'5.4"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Campbell
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Campbell's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Coastal
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Coastal's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.