CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteMichelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NVPlayers Era Sixteen

San Diego St

Efficiency #53

2025-26: 22-11 · 16-7 conf

Iowa State

Efficiency #7

2025-26: 29-8 · 14-7 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · 5:30 PM ET

68.5

win 24%

Projected

76.5

win 76%

No line posted yet.

Model: ISU −8.0 · total 145.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Iowa State 68.2, San Diego St 69.1 → 69.0 possessions

+1.5

Iowa State offense vs San Diego St defense

+1.6

San Diego St offense vs Iowa State defense

−6.4

Projected total

145.0

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Iowa State offense vs San Diego St defense

+1.6

San Diego St offense vs Iowa State defense

+6.4

Iowa State by 8.0

8.0

San Diego St side ◂▸ Iowa State side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 144.9 against a projected 145.0. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Iowa State.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, San Diego St is the faster team (69.3, #129 of 365) and Iowa State the slower (68.5, #173). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

69.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

145.0

model

Projected team totals

68.5 / 76.5

San Diego St / Iowa State

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.1#113

San Diego St

68.2#188

Iowa State

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageSan Diego St

Where San Diego St struggles: ball control

San Diego St turns it over on 17.2% of possessions (#222); Iowa State forces turnovers on 22.6% of opponent possessions (#4). Expect about 20.7%, 4.0 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.9 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseSan Diego St

San Diego St's shot-blocking

San Diego St ranks #8 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.8% of Iowa State's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

ClashIowa State

Style match: ball movement

Iowa State assists on 59.0% of its made baskets; San Diego St allows assists on 58.2% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 60.4% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseIowa State

Iowa State's ball-hawking

Iowa State ranks #9 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.9% of San Diego St's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

AdvantageIowa State

Where Iowa State scores: the offensive glass

Iowa State rebounds 35.2% of its own misses (#45); San Diego St lets opponents grab 31.1% of their own misses (#208). Expect about 34.0%, 3.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.2 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Iowa State) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect San Diego St at about 36.9% of its shots from three, Iowa State about 44.0%.

San Diego St has the ball

OffenseIowa State allowsvs D1 avg

52.7% #116

49.8% #92

+0.1 pt/100

17.2% #222

22.6% #4

-4.9 pt/100

29.5% #222

28.6% #85

-0.9 pt/100

39.0% #81

28.1% #33

-0.3 pt/100

73.0% #166

—

+0.1 pt/100

San Diego St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -5.9 pts/100

Iowa State has the ball

OffenseSan Diego St allowsvs D1 avg

56.2% #20

48.2% #41

+1.8 pt/100

14.9% #59

20.3% #19

-1.4 pt/100

35.2% #45

31.1% #208

+2.2 pt/100

34.5% #194

38.5% #271

+0.2 pt/100

67.5% #333

—

-0.4 pt/100

Iowa State net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

San Diego Stoffense vsIowa Statedefense

Share of shots by zone

San Diego St shoots

35.9

6.8

24.4

33.0

Iowa State allows

29.2

8.4

19.4

43.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	64.3%#30	63.4%#332	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.6%#205	39.4%#168	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#125	34.6%#64	38.0%
Three	34.5%#144	32.0%#63	33.7%

Iowa Stateoffense vsSan Diego Stdefense

Share of shots by zone

Iowa State shoots

38.2

8.6

14.9

38.3

San Diego St allows

34.0

5.3

13.6

47.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.2%#20	52.3%#18	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	38.1%#220	32.2%#23	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.3%#210	29.6%#3	38.0%
Three	38.3%#12	33.6%#164	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

San Diego St

+1.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#106 of 365

Off reb %

29.5%

#222

Def reb %

68.9%

#208

Turnover %

17.2%

#222

Forced TO %

20.3%

#19

FT rate

39.0%

#81

FT allowed

38.5%

#271

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.3

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers+2.4

Foul shots drawn+1.0

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Iowa State

+9.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#2 of 365

Off reb %

35.2%

#45

Def reb %

71.4%

#85

Turnover %

14.9%

#59

Forced TO %

22.6%

FT rate

34.5%

#194

FT allowed

28.1%

#33

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.5

Defensive rebounding+0.7

Ball security+1.3

Forcing turnovers+4.0

Foul shots drawn−0.1

Foul shots allowed+1.8

Iowa State has more extra scoring chances per game: +9.2 (#2 of 365) to San Diego St’s +1.9 (#106).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

San Diego St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Miles Byrd	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	28.1	10.4	4.7	2.6	1.9	48.2%	30.8%	4.3	79.5%	24.3%
10	BJ Davis	G	Jr	6'2"	33-7	22.3	10.8	3.2	2.2	0.9	50.6%	37.4%	3.0	85.3%	26.9%
24	Taj DeGourville	G	So	6'5"	33-5	19.4	5.5	2.8	3.0	1.5	42.8%	34.5%	1.7	65.5%	22.0%
40	Miles Heide	F	Jr	6'9"	32-31	19.1	5.6	4.5	0.8	1.0	62.3%	28.6%	0.2	51.0%	16.9%
4	Sean Newman Jr.	G	Sr	6'1"	33-5	15.5	3.3	1.2	2.4	0.8	41.0%	28.1%	1.0	86.1%	15.7%
3	Elzie Harrington	G	Fr	6'5"	23-17	21.0	8.0	1.6	2.3	1.7	53.8%	43.6%	1.7	81.3%	23.6%
0	Magoon Gwath	F	So	7'0"	25-16	19.0	8.9	4.3	0.3	1.5	58.3%	43.5%	1.8	60.6%	27.0%
8	Tae Simmons	F	Fr	6'6"	32-3	14.3	5.8	3.4	0.3	0.4	65.7%	25.0%	0.3	63.1%	19.7%
5	Pharaoh Compton	F	So	6'7"	33-1	13.8	7.5	2.8	0.3	0.7	72.1%	0.0%	0.1	62.5%	25.1%
25	Jeremiah Oden	F	Sr	6'8"	30-15	13.8	4.6	2.3	0.4	0.5	51.4%	30.2%	1.8	69.7%	19.7%
33	Thokbor Majak	F	Fr	7'1"	7-0	4.3	0.3	1.9	0.0	0.4	16.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	17.8%
7	Cam Lawin	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	2.6	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	81.3%	50.0%	1.2	—	38.6%
9	Raymar Gonzales	G	Fr	6'3"	4-0	2.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	15.2%
6	Latrell Davis	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Iowa State2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
27	Killyan Toure	G	Fr	6'3"	37-37	25.4	8.6	3.5	2.3	1.7	51.0%	31.3%	2.2	72.2%	22.1%
0	Nate Heise	G	Sr	6'5"	37-5	24.9	5.7	4.0	1.6	0.6	53.8%	32.2%	2.4	66.7%	13.4%
23	Blake Buchanan	F	Jr	6'10"	37-36	24.5	8.5	5.7	1.7	1.1	63.6%	0.0%	0.1	49.4%	19.0%
1	Jamarion Batemon	G	Fr	6'3"	37-0	15.6	6.6	1.2	0.4	0.5	51.4%	37.0%	3.9	78.8%	24.8%
21	Dominykas Pleta	F	Fr	6'11"	35-1	11.3	4.4	2.3	0.5	0.8	70.6%	—	0.0	59.6%	20.6%
11	Dominick Nelson	G	Sr	6'5"	24-0	8.3	3.7	0.9	0.3	0.7	44.4%	0.0%	0.3	60.4%	29.2%
4	Eric Mulder	F	Sr	6'9"	20-0	3.6	0.9	1.6	0.1	0.3	53.6%	100.0%	0.1	44.4%	17.6%
13	Cade Kelderman	G	Jr	6'1"	18-0	3.8	0.9	0.2	0.7	0.1	60.0%	40.0%	0.6	50.0%	12.1%
55	Xzavion Mitchell	F	Fr	6'6"	7-0	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.1	37.5%	33.3%	0.9	50.0%	23.4%
7	Anthony Rise	G	Fr	6'0"	11-0	1.4	0.2	0.5	0.0	0.1	25.0%	—	0.0	—	18.5%
2	Mason Williams	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

San Diego St2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
21	Miles Byrd	G	Jr	6'6"	33-33	28.1	10.4	4.7	2.6	1.9	48.2%	30.8%	4.3	79.5%	24.3%
10	BJ Davis	G	Jr	6'2"	33-7	22.3	10.8	3.2	2.2	0.9	50.6%	37.4%	3.0	85.3%	26.9%
24	Taj DeGourville	G	So	6'5"	33-5	19.4	5.5	2.8	3.0	1.5	42.8%	34.5%	1.7	65.5%	22.0%
40	Miles Heide	F	Jr	6'9"	32-31	19.1	5.6	4.5	0.8	1.0	62.3%	28.6%	0.2	51.0%	16.9%
4	Sean Newman Jr.	G	Sr	6'1"	33-5	15.5	3.3	1.2	2.4	0.8	41.0%	28.1%	1.0	86.1%	15.7%
3	Elzie Harrington	G	Fr	6'5"	23-17	21.0	8.0	1.6	2.3	1.7	53.8%	43.6%	1.7	81.3%	23.6%
0	Magoon Gwath	F	So	7'0"	25-16	19.0	8.9	4.3	0.3	1.5	58.3%	43.5%	1.8	60.6%	27.0%
8	Tae Simmons	F	Fr	6'6"	32-3	14.3	5.8	3.4	0.3	0.4	65.7%	25.0%	0.3	63.1%	19.7%
5	Pharaoh Compton	F	So	6'7"	33-1	13.8	7.5	2.8	0.3	0.7	72.1%	0.0%	0.1	62.5%	25.1%
25	Jeremiah Oden	F	Sr	6'8"	30-15	13.8	4.6	2.3	0.4	0.5	51.4%	30.2%	1.8	69.7%	19.7%
33	Thokbor Majak	F	Fr	7'1"	7-0	4.3	0.3	1.9	0.0	0.4	16.7%	—	0.0	0.0%	17.8%
7	Cam Lawin	G	Jr	6'3"	5-0	2.6	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.2	81.3%	50.0%	1.2	—	38.6%
9	Raymar Gonzales	G	Fr	6'3"	4-0	2.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	0.3	—	15.2%
6	Latrell Davis	G	Jr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

San Diego St

Against the spread

Season

14-17-1

Home

6-8-1

Road

6-4

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −3.0

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

15-17

Home

7-8

Road

6-4

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +1.9

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 14	Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 62–73	+2.5	L−8.5	146.0	U135	95.0	111.8	65.3
Mar 13	New MexicoAdjEM #42	N	W 64–62	−2.5	L−0.5	150.5	U126	96.8	93.7	66.1
Mar 12	Colorado StAdjEM #88	N	W 71–62	−6.5	W+2.5	142.0	U133	102.1	89.1	69.6
Mar 6	UNLVAdjEM #124	H	W 89–86	−9.0	L−6.0	153.5	O175	120.7	116.6	73.7
Mar 3	Boise StAdjEM #63	A	L 77–86	+1.0	L−8.0	145.0	O163	113.1	126.3	68.1
Feb 28	New MexicoAdjEM #42	A	L 76–81	+1.5	L−3.5	149.0	O157	108.1	115.3	70.3
Feb 25	Utah StateAdjEM #24	H	W 89–72	+1.0	W+18.0	147.0	O161	128.0	103.5	69.5
Feb 21	Colorado StAdjEM #88	A	L 74–83	−2.5	L−11.5	140.0	O157	109.5	122.8	67.6
Feb 17	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	H	L 63–73	−8.0	L−18.0	139.0	U136	88.4	102.5	71.2
Feb 14	NevadaAdjEM #71	H	W 71–57	−8.5	W+5.5	139.5	U128	113.2	90.9	62.7

Iowa State

Against the spread

Season

22-15

Home

9-8

Road

5-5

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +4.0

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 8 as a favoriteCovered 4 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-21

Home

9-8

Road

2-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total +0.1

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 8 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 27	#6TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	L 62–76	−3.0	L−17.0	139.5	U138	91.2	111.8	68.0
Mar 22	#7KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	W 82–63	−4.5	W+14.5	146.5	U145	118.4	91.0	69.2
Mar 20	#15Tennessee StAdjEM #155	N	W 108–74	−25.0	W+9.0	147.5	O182	137.7	94.4	78.4
Mar 13	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	N	L 80–82	+3.5	W+1.5	144.5	O162	120.8	123.9	66.2
Mar 12	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	N	W 75–53	−5.5	W+16.5	143.5	U128	115.9	81.9	64.7
Mar 11	Arizona StAdjEM #93	N	W 91–42	−12.5	W+36.5	149.5	U133	132.3	61.1	68.8
Mar 7	Arizona StAdjEM #93	H	W 86–65	−16.5	W+4.5	148.0	O151	117.9	89.1	73.0
Mar 2	#2ArizonaAdjEM #3	A	L 57–73	+7.0	L−9.0	149.0	U130	85.4	109.3	66.8
Feb 28	#16Texas TechAdjEM #21	H	L 73–82	−9.5	L−18.5	145.0	O155	113.1	127.1	64.5
Feb 24	UtahAdjEM #177	A	W 75–59	−14.0	W+2.0	144.5	U134	110.2	86.7	68.1

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

San Diego StIowa State

Efficiency

110.1

118.3

101.0

97.6

69.1

68.2

—

Shooting

52.7%

56.2%

53.2%

55.4%

34.5%

38.3%

73.0%

67.5%

39.0%

34.5%

Ball control & glass

17.2%

14.9%

20.3%

22.6%

29.5%

35.2%

31.1%

28.6%

9.7%

9.6%

6.2%

10.2%

Style

33.8%

38.8%

42.5%

45.2%

15.0%

14.1%

54.4%

59.0%

42.9%

28.6%

Roster

2.55

2.34

6'5.9"

85.7%

55.7%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

San Diego St

Returning minutes: 85.7%Returning production: 87.5%

Lost

Reese Dixon-Waters 29.2 mpg, 12.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Latrell Davis no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Iowa State

Returning minutes: 55.7%Returning production: 46.0%

Lost

Milan Momcilovic 30.4 mpg, 16.9 ppg · transferred to Kentucky
Joshua Jefferson 29.3 mpg, 15.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Tamin Lipsey 29.0 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Mason Williams no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 56% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5 (1 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.