CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSimon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN

Jacksonville

Efficiency #294

2025-26: 12-20 · 7-12 conf

Indiana

Efficiency #45

2025-26: 18-14 · 9-12 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · TBD

64.1

win 10%

Projected

79.0

win 90%

No line posted yet.

Model: IU −14.9 · total 143.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Indiana 67.6, Jacksonville 65.8 → 65.0 possessions

−7.1

Indiana offense vs Jacksonville defense

+6.6

Jacksonville offense vs Indiana defense

−4.6

Projected total

143.1

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Indiana offense vs Jacksonville defense

+6.6

Jacksonville offense vs Indiana defense

+4.6

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.7

Indiana by 14.9

14.9

Jacksonville side ◂▸ Indiana side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Indiana.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Indiana is the faster team (66.6, #263 of 365) and Jacksonville the slower (65.2, #328). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

65.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

143.1

model

Projected team totals

64.1 / 79.0

Jacksonville / Indiana

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.8#348

Jacksonville

67.6#244

Indiana

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageIndiana

Where Indiana scores: shooting

Indiana shoots an effective 56.1% (#22); Jacksonville allows 54.8% (#325). Expect about 55.9%, 4.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.5 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Half-court grind

Indiana averages 66.6 possessions per 40, Jacksonville 65.2. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 65 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageJacksonville

Where Jacksonville struggles: shooting

Jacksonville shoots an effective 50.0% (#232); Indiana allows 49.0% (#68). Expect about 49.4%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.7 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversIndiana

Indiana protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.6% is worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions for Indiana's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Jacksonville's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Jacksonville at about 36.1% of its shots from three, Indiana about 45.6%.

GlassIndiana

Indiana gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.3% is worth roughly -1.9 points per 100 possessions against Indiana's offense.

Jacksonville has the ball

OffenseIndiana allowsvs D1 avg

50.0% #232

49.0% #68

-2.7 pt/100

17.2% #223

15.1% #280

+1.0 pt/100

31.7% #137

29.3% #122

+0.2 pt/100

32.8% #242

37.0% #236

+0.0 pt/100

72.3% #198

—

-0.0 pt/100

Jacksonville net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.5 pts/100

Indiana has the ball

OffenseJacksonville allowsvs D1 avg

56.1% #22

54.8% #325

+6.5 pt/100

15.1% #71

15.0% #290

+2.6 pt/100

26.9% #300

29.1% #115

-1.9 pt/100

35.0% #179

42.7% #336

+0.6 pt/100

78.0% #18

—

+0.5 pt/100

Indiana net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.3 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Jacksonvilleoffense vsIndianadefense

Share of shots by zone

Jacksonville shoots

41.3

5.4

16.2

37.0

Indiana allows

34.1

6.1

22.8

37.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.1%#235	56.5%#101	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	30.4%#346	44.2%#271	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.6%#89	38.8%#191	38.0%
Three	31.7%#289	33.1%#128	33.7%

Indianaoffense vsJacksonvilledefense

Share of shots by zone

Indiana shoots

35.3

3.1

10.6

51.0

Jacksonville allows

46.3

7.1

12.1

34.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	65.4%#18	62.6%#312	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.9%#24	35.6%#79	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.2%#22	34.9%#74	38.0%
Three	34.7%#138	36.3%#318	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Jacksonville

−3.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#307 of 365

Off reb %

31.7%

#137

Def reb %

70.9%

#115

Turnover %

17.2%

#223

Forced TO %

15.0%

#290

FT rate

32.8%

#242

FT allowed

42.7%

#336

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.4

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security−0.3

Forcing turnovers−1.2

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−1.9

Indiana

−1.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#238 of 365

Off reb %

26.9%

#300

Def reb %

70.7%

#122

Turnover %

15.1%

#71

Forced TO %

15.1%

#280

FT rate

35.0%

#179

FT allowed

37.0%

#236

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.1

Defensive rebounding+0.4

Ball security+1.2

Forcing turnovers−1.1

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed−0.5

Indiana has more extra scoring chances per game: −1.1 (#238 of 365) to Jacksonville’s −3.1 (#307).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Jacksonville2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Hayden Wood	G	Fr	6'6"	32-31	27.0	11.8	3.2	1.3	0.8	55.9%	37.7%	4.7	71.6%	24.8%
2	Jaylen Jones	G	Jr	6'0"	31-29	26.9	9.7	3.5	2.6	2.1	49.4%	33.3%	2.7	66.7%	26.1%
34	Evan Sterck	G	Fr	6'1"	32-23	24.7	6.4	2.0	3.1	1.5	47.6%	30.6%	3.1	78.8%	19.6%
11	Chris Lockett Jr.	G	So	6'4"	32-11	24.5	9.3	3.1	1.7	0.8	45.1%	30.6%	3.4	84.6%	24.9%
31	Jason Thirdkill Jr.	F	Sr	6'7"	32-24	22.6	8.0	5.4	0.5	0.8	56.3%	30.4%	1.8	76.1%	19.9%
33	Donovan Rivers	F	Jr	6'9"	32-28	20.0	8.6	4.6	0.6	1.6	54.9%	0.0%	0.1	64.4%	27.7%
1	Chris Arias	G	So	6'6"	30-4	17.9	7.3	2.3	0.7	0.7	52.7%	36.1%	4.0	84.4%	24.5%
22	Charles Caporaso	C	So	7'0"	26-4	10.7	4.1	2.3	0.3	0.4	57.1%	0.0%	0.0	75.0%	21.1%
14	Allen Udemadu	F	Sr	6'10"	24-0	11.4	3.6	2.5	0.2	1.0	60.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.8%
23	Enrico Borio	F	So	6'8"	21-5	12.1	3.0	1.8	0.5	0.7	46.6%	27.7%	2.2	53.8%	18.1%
0	Jaylen Jordon	F	Sr	6'8"	22-1	11.5	3.5	2.7	0.3	1.0	61.1%	—	0.0	71.4%	19.2%
9	Michael Harper Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	15-0	6.9	2.7	0.9	0.5	0.2	41.5%	23.1%	0.9	20.0%	29.6%
10	Simon Wheeler	G	Sr	5'10"	8-0	7.4	1.4	0.6	1.6	1.1	50.0%	20.0%	0.6	0.0%	19.3%
4	Anakin Brown	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	9.7	1.7	2.0	1.0	0.3	16.7%	16.7%	2.0	66.7%	18.9%
6	Lamont Jackson	G	So	6'0"	4-0	4.0	2.3	0.5	0.3	0.3	41.7%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	27.8%
12	Roman Loux	G	Fr	6'0"	4-0	3.3	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.3	0.0%	21.2%
5	Tito Deng	F	Jr	6'11"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Indiana2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Conor Enright	G	Sr	6'1"	32-32	30.0	4.6	3.0	4.6	1.2	51.2%	34.7%	2.3	79.3%	10.9%
6	Tayton Conerway	G	Sr	6'3"	29-19	21.3	9.5	2.8	3.3	2.0	61.1%	29.0%	2.1	73.7%	26.4%
11	Trent Sisley	F	Fr	6'8"	30-0	13.1	4.2	2.8	0.4	0.4	49.1%	27.1%	1.6	53.8%	20.3%
0	Jasai Miles	G	Jr	6'6"	25-0	9.8	1.6	2.0	0.4	0.5	41.5%	24.0%	1.0	50.0%	14.9%
13	Aleksa Ristic	G	Fr	6'3"	12-0	2.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.2	60.0%	66.7%	0.3	0.0%	14.4%
30	Ian Stephens	G	Jr	6'5"	12-0	1.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	100.0%	5.1%
21	Drew Snively	G	Fr	6'5"	9-0	1.9	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.1	40.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	20.0%
18	Tryce Grensing	G	Fr	6'0"	10-0	1.6	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	3.6%
15	Andrej Acimovic	C	Fr	6'10"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
2	Jason Drake	G	Jr	6'1"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Jordan Rayford	G	Jr	6'5"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Josh Harris	F	So	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Jacksonville2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
8	Hayden Wood	G	Fr	6'6"	32-31	27.0	11.8	3.2	1.3	0.8	55.9%	37.7%	4.7	71.6%	24.8%
2	Jaylen Jones	G	Jr	6'0"	31-29	26.9	9.7	3.5	2.6	2.1	49.4%	33.3%	2.7	66.7%	26.1%
34	Evan Sterck	G	Fr	6'1"	32-23	24.7	6.4	2.0	3.1	1.5	47.6%	30.6%	3.1	78.8%	19.6%
11	Chris Lockett Jr.	G	So	6'4"	32-11	24.5	9.3	3.1	1.7	0.8	45.1%	30.6%	3.4	84.6%	24.9%
31	Jason Thirdkill Jr.	F	Sr	6'7"	32-24	22.6	8.0	5.4	0.5	0.8	56.3%	30.4%	1.8	76.1%	19.9%
33	Donovan Rivers	F	Jr	6'9"	32-28	20.0	8.6	4.6	0.6	1.6	54.9%	0.0%	0.1	64.4%	27.7%
1	Chris Arias	G	So	6'6"	30-4	17.9	7.3	2.3	0.7	0.7	52.7%	36.1%	4.0	84.4%	24.5%
22	Charles Caporaso	C	So	7'0"	26-4	10.7	4.1	2.3	0.3	0.4	57.1%	0.0%	0.0	75.0%	21.1%
14	Allen Udemadu	F	Sr	6'10"	24-0	11.4	3.6	2.5	0.2	1.0	60.0%	—	0.0	75.0%	20.8%
23	Enrico Borio	F	So	6'8"	21-5	12.1	3.0	1.8	0.5	0.7	46.6%	27.7%	2.2	53.8%	18.1%
0	Jaylen Jordon	F	Sr	6'8"	22-1	11.5	3.5	2.7	0.3	1.0	61.1%	—	0.0	71.4%	19.2%
9	Michael Harper Jr.	G	Fr	6'3"	15-0	6.9	2.7	0.9	0.5	0.2	41.5%	23.1%	0.9	20.0%	29.6%
10	Simon Wheeler	G	Sr	5'10"	8-0	7.4	1.4	0.6	1.6	1.1	50.0%	20.0%	0.6	0.0%	19.3%
4	Anakin Brown	G	Fr	6'3"	3-0	9.7	1.7	2.0	1.0	0.3	16.7%	16.7%	2.0	66.7%	18.9%
6	Lamont Jackson	G	So	6'0"	4-0	4.0	2.3	0.5	0.3	0.3	41.7%	25.0%	1.0	100.0%	27.8%
12	Roman Loux	G	Fr	6'0"	4-0	3.3	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.0	75.0%	0.0%	0.3	0.0%	21.2%
5	Tito Deng	F	Jr	6'11"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Jacksonville

Against the spread

Season

12-17-1

Home

4-6

Road

7-9-1

Last 10

3-7

avg cover −1.9

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

12-18

Home

4-6

Road

7-10

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +5.0

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 3 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	BellarmineAdjEM #281	N	L 79–82	+2.0	L−1.0	146.5	O161	123.8	128.6	63.8
Feb 28	North FloridaAdjEM #338	A	W 85–61	−1.5	W+22.5	150.0	U146	123.1	88.3	69.1
Feb 26	StetsonAdjEM #322	H	W 89–85	−7.0	L−3.0	140.0	O174	132.3	126.3	67.3
Feb 21	Austin PeayAdjEM #141	H	L 61–65	+5.5	W+1.5	142.5	U126	101.0	107.6	60.4
Feb 18	FGCUAdjEM #246	A	L 84–86	+6.5	W+4.5	136.0	O170	127.6	130.6	65.8
Feb 14	North FloridaAdjEM #338	H	W 63–56	−7.5	L−0.5	153.0	U119	108.2	96.1	58.3
Feb 11	StetsonAdjEM #322	A	L 62–67	−1.5	L−6.5	138.5	U129	99.0	107.0	62.6
Feb 7	West GeorgiaAdjEM #304	A	L 73–87	−1.0	L−15.0	138.0	O160	108.1	128.8	67.5
Feb 5	QueensAdjEM #191	A	L 84–93	+8.5	L−0.5	147.5	O177	119.0	131.8	70.6
Jan 31	FGCUAdjEM #246	H	L 49–68	−2.0	L−21.0	137.5	U117	74.2	103.0	66.0

Indiana

Against the spread

Season

14-18

Home

9-9

Road

4-7

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −5.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 0 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

7-11

Road

5-6

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −0.9

Under in the last gameOver in 2 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	N	L 61–74	−6.0	L−19.0	142.0	U135	100.5	121.9	60.7
Mar 7	Ohio StateAdjEM #31	A	L 78–91	+4.0	L−9.0	148.0	O169	114.8	134.0	67.9
Mar 4	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	H	W 77–47	−6.5	W+23.5	138.5	U124	125.7	76.7	61.3
Mar 1	#13Michigan StAdjEM #11	H	L 64–77	+3.0	L−10.0	144.0	U141	106.5	128.1	60.1
Feb 24	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	H	L 68–72	−8.5	L−12.5	146.0	U140	111.3	117.8	61.1
Feb 20	#7PurdueAdjEM #9	A	L 64–93	+11.5	L−17.5	150.0	O157	100.8	146.5	63.5
Feb 15	#8IllinoisAdjEM #4	A	L 51–71	+9.0	L−11.0	153.5	U122	90.1	125.5	56.6
Feb 9	OregonAdjEM #143	H	W 92–74	−11.0	W+7.0	143.5	O166	138.7	111.5	66.3
Feb 7	WisconsinAdjEM #28	H	W 78–77 OT	−3.5	L−2.5	156.0	U155	114.0	112.6	68.4
Feb 3	USCAdjEM #97	A	L 75–81	−1.5	L−7.5	152.5	O156	103.2	111.5	72.7

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

JacksonvilleIndiana

Efficiency

104.9

115.2

111.9

105.0

65.8

67.6

—

Shooting

50.0%

56.1%

51.5%

60.3%

31.7%

34.7%

72.3%

78.0%

32.8%

35.0%

Ball control & glass

17.2%

15.1%

15.0%

15.1%

31.7%

26.9%

29.1%

29.3%

10.2%

8.2%

7.5%

10.1%

Style

37.4%

50.5%

44.0%

38.4%

11.1%

9.3%

44.7%

62.5%

38.8%

27.0%

Roster

2.36

3.29

6'5.2"

6'3.4"

—

35.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Jacksonville

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Jacksonville's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Indiana

Returning minutes: 35.5%Returning production: 28.7%

Lost

Tucker DeVries 34.3 mpg, 13.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Lamar Wilkerson 34.0 mpg, 20.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Nick Dorn 21.8 mpg, 7.6 ppg · transferred to Miami
Sam Alexis 21.3 mpg, 8.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Reed Bailey 19.2 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Josh Harris no D1 minutes last season
Jason Drake no D1 minutes last season
Andrej Acimovic no D1 minutes last season
Jordan Rayford no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 36% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.