CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteAcrisure Arena, Palm Springs, CAAcrisure Series

Nevada

Efficiency #71

2025-26: 24-13 · 14-9 conf

Santa Clara

Efficiency #33

2025-26: 26-9 · 17-4 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · 7:00 PM ET

74.8

win 39%

Projected

78.2

win 61%

No line posted yet.

Model: SCU −3.4 · total 153.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Santa Clara 69.5, Nevada 67.4 → 68.5 possessions

+0.4

Santa Clara offense vs Nevada defense

+3.9

Nevada offense vs Santa Clara defense

+0.5

Projected total

153.0

Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Santa Clara offense vs Nevada defense

+3.9

Nevada offense vs Santa Clara defense

−0.5

Santa Clara by 3.4

3.4

Nevada side ◂▸ Santa Clara side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Santa Clara.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.5, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Santa Clara is the faster team (69.5, #113 of 365) and Nevada the slower (66.8, #253). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.5

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.0

model

Projected team totals

74.8 / 78.2

Nevada / Santa Clara

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

67.4#263

Nevada

69.5#84

Santa Clara

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

ClashNevada

Style match: ball movement

Nevada assists on 57.6% of its made baskets; Santa Clara allows assists on 60.4% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 61.0% — both habits push the same way.

AdvantageSanta Clara

Where Santa Clara scores: shooting

Santa Clara shoots an effective 54.4% (#53); Nevada allows 51.1% (#166). Expect about 53.0%, 1.8 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseSanta Clara

Santa Clara's ball-hawking

Santa Clara ranks #17 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.1% of Nevada's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

ClashSanta Clara

Strength vs strength: offensive rebounding

Santa Clara (#20 in offensive rebounding) against Nevada (#33 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 32.9%. Historically Santa Clara's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.70 vs 0.49).

ClashNevada

Strength vs strength: turnover rate

Nevada (#55 in turnover rate) against Santa Clara (#25 in the same stat allowed) — both rank inside the national top 60. Expect about 17.7%. Historically Santa Clara's own number has carried a bit more weight in that exchange (0.57 vs 0.64).

Nevada has the ball

OffenseSanta Clara allowsvs D1 avg

50.0% #234

52.0% #213

-0.5 pt/100

14.8% #55

19.9% #25

-1.1 pt/100

32.2% #119

32.1% #262

+1.3 pt/100

44.8% #6

38.2% #264

+0.8 pt/100

75.7% #61

—

+0.3 pt/100

Nevada net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +0.8 pts/100

Santa Clara has the ball

OffenseNevada allowsvs D1 avg

54.4% #53

51.1% #166

+2.5 pt/100

15.4% #99

17.0% #150

+0.7 pt/100

36.4% #20

26.9% #33

+1.5 pt/100

25.5% #363

38.9% #282

-0.3 pt/100

74.4% #106

—

+0.2 pt/100

Santa Clara net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Nevadaoffense vsSanta Claradefense

Share of shots by zone

Nevada shoots

39.2

6.2

22.1

32.5

Santa Clara allows

43.0

5.2

13.7

38.1

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.4%#335	61.4%#281	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	37.5%#236	38.4%#144	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	39.7%#123	32.9%#26	38.0%
Three	35.8%#70	33.1%#127	33.7%

Santa Claraoffense vsNevadadefense

Share of shots by zone

Santa Clara shoots

35.1

10.4

10.2

44.2

Nevada allows

38.7

5.9

12.9

42.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	61.3%#84	53.7%#36	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	47.2%#37	37.8%#132	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	44.1%#24	46.9%#359	38.0%
Three	34.9%#125	33.7%#168	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Nevada

+4.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#26 of 365

Off reb %

32.2%

#119

Def reb %

73.1%

#33

Turnover %

14.8%

#55

Forced TO %

17.0%

#150

FT rate

44.8%

FT allowed

38.9%

#282

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding+1.2

Ball security+1.3

Forcing turnovers+0.2

Foul shots drawn+2.5

Foul shots allowed−0.9

Santa Clara

+1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#123 of 365

Off reb %

36.4%

#20

Def reb %

67.9%

#262

Turnover %

15.4%

#99

Forced TO %

19.9%

#25

FT rate

25.5%

#363

FT allowed

38.2%

#264

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.9

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security+0.9

Forcing turnovers+2.2

Foul shots drawn−2.4

Foul shots allowed−0.8

Nevada has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.9 (#26 of 365) to Santa Clara’s +1.4 (#123).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Nevada2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Elijah Price	F	So	6'9"	37-37	30.0	12.8	8.5	1.1	1.9	46.3%	35.5%	0.8	73.3%	26.5%
12	Tayshawn Comer	G	Sr	6'1"	37-36	25.2	11.0	1.8	3.6	2.0	44.2%	35.1%	3.1	79.7%	30.7%
7	Vaughn Weems	G	Jr	6'5"	34-25	25.0	10.1	4.2	0.9	1.1	60.4%	38.2%	2.0	76.8%	21.8%
6	Kaleb Lowery	F	Sr	6'8"	36-27	18.3	4.6	3.1	1.0	0.5	56.9%	33.9%	1.7	75.8%	14.4%
0	Chuck Bailey III	G	Jr	6'4"	33-14	18.0	6.3	2.4	1.0	0.5	45.9%	39.4%	2.2	74.4%	23.3%
3	Tyler Rolison	G	Jr	6'0"	34-4	17.2	5.5	1.7	2.6	1.0	41.1%	22.0%	1.2	76.0%	23.0%
17	Peyton White	G	Fr	6'6"	36-0	13.9	4.6	1.7	0.4	0.4	48.1%	32.7%	1.4	79.2%	20.2%
21	Joel Armotrading	C	Sr	6'10"	21-10	16.9	5.2	4.0	0.5	0.9	50.7%	—	0.0	77.4%	18.3%
5	Amire Robinson	G	So	6'3"	36-0	9.4	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.2	56.0%	33.3%	1.3	70.6%	16.0%
2	Myles Walker	G	Fr	5'10"	32-0	7.7	1.3	0.6	1.4	0.4	46.3%	33.3%	0.6	100.0%	13.7%
10	Jeriah Coleman	C	Sr	7'1"	29-0	5.8	1.1	1.6	0.0	0.1	70.6%	—	0.0	50.0%	9.6%
50	Ethan Croley	F	Fr	6'9"	16-0	5.3	1.9	1.3	0.0	0.3	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	46.2%	22.5%
24	Christopher Baudreau	F	Fr	6'9"	4-0	2.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	40.0%	—	0.0	—	37.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Santa Clara2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Christian Hammond	G	So	6'4"	34-34	30.3	15.6	3.0	2.5	1.7	54.9%	39.3%	4.0	78.7%	28.7%
44	Jake Ensminger	G	Jr	6'9"	32-32	28.8	6.5	5.5	2.9	0.9	66.1%	39.8%	2.8	66.7%	11.6%
0	Brenton Knapper	G	Sr	6'0"	33-33	21.5	7.5	1.8	2.2	1.2	45.6%	27.4%	3.4	79.2%	23.4%
2	Sash Gavalyugov	G	Fr	6'3"	35-2	20.0	9.0	1.9	2.7	1.4	51.6%	35.8%	5.3	72.0%	28.4%
15	Thierry Darlan	G	Jr	6'8"	35-1	17.9	6.1	3.6	0.9	1.4	50.3%	33.9%	3.4	88.6%	22.0%
7	KJ Cochran	G	Fr	6'5"	34-0	11.8	4.7	1.4	0.6	0.4	51.4%	27.1%	2.5	65.2%	23.5%
3	Francis Chukwudebelu	C	Fr	6'10"	24-0	6.8	1.4	1.3	0.7	0.0	52.0%	40.0%	0.2	50.0%	11.5%
50	Brendan Yarusso	G	Sr	6'1"	8-0	1.3	2.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	50.0%	36.4%	1.4	100.0%	77.2%
51	Juan Reyna	G	Sr	6'3"	1-0	2.0	0.0	2.0	0.0	1.0	—	—	0.0	—	27.7%
4	Brad Longcor III	G	Fr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
14	Chris Tadjo	F	So	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
9	Gehrig Normand	G	So	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
54	Malachi Douyon	G	Sr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Noah Badibanga	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Nevada2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
1	Elijah Price	F	So	6'9"	37-37	30.0	12.8	8.5	1.1	1.9	46.3%	35.5%	0.8	73.3%	26.5%
12	Tayshawn Comer	G	Sr	6'1"	37-36	25.2	11.0	1.8	3.6	2.0	44.2%	35.1%	3.1	79.7%	30.7%
7	Vaughn Weems	G	Jr	6'5"	34-25	25.0	10.1	4.2	0.9	1.1	60.4%	38.2%	2.0	76.8%	21.8%
6	Kaleb Lowery	F	Sr	6'8"	36-27	18.3	4.6	3.1	1.0	0.5	56.9%	33.9%	1.7	75.8%	14.4%
0	Chuck Bailey III	G	Jr	6'4"	33-14	18.0	6.3	2.4	1.0	0.5	45.9%	39.4%	2.2	74.4%	23.3%
3	Tyler Rolison	G	Jr	6'0"	34-4	17.2	5.5	1.7	2.6	1.0	41.1%	22.0%	1.2	76.0%	23.0%
17	Peyton White	G	Fr	6'6"	36-0	13.9	4.6	1.7	0.4	0.4	48.1%	32.7%	1.4	79.2%	20.2%
21	Joel Armotrading	C	Sr	6'10"	21-10	16.9	5.2	4.0	0.5	0.9	50.7%	—	0.0	77.4%	18.3%
5	Amire Robinson	G	So	6'3"	36-0	9.4	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.2	56.0%	33.3%	1.3	70.6%	16.0%
2	Myles Walker	G	Fr	5'10"	32-0	7.7	1.3	0.6	1.4	0.4	46.3%	33.3%	0.6	100.0%	13.7%
10	Jeriah Coleman	C	Sr	7'1"	29-0	5.8	1.1	1.6	0.0	0.1	70.6%	—	0.0	50.0%	9.6%
50	Ethan Croley	F	Fr	6'9"	16-0	5.3	1.9	1.3	0.0	0.3	57.1%	0.0%	0.1	46.2%	22.5%
24	Christopher Baudreau	F	Fr	6'9"	4-0	2.0	1.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	40.0%	—	0.0	—	37.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Nevada

Against the spread

Season

21-15-1

Home

12-7

Road

6-6-1

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +1.0

Covered 3 straightCovered 3 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 3 of 4 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

21-16

Home

10-9

Road

7-6

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total −1.2

Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 25	AuburnAdjEM #41	A	L 69–75	+8.0	W+2.0	153.0	U144	107.2	116.5	64.4
Mar 21	LibertyAdjEM #103	H	W 73–63	−7.0	W+3.0	147.5	U136	117.6	101.5	62.0
Mar 18	Murray StAdjEM #108	H	W 89–75	−9.0	W+5.0	160.0	O164	123.2	103.8	72.2
Mar 13	Utah StateAdjEM #24	N	L 66–79	+6.5	L−6.5	144.5	O145	90.3	108.1	73.1
Mar 12	Grand CanyonAdjEM #65	N	W 84–80	+3.5	W+7.5	137.5	O164	119.3	113.6	70.4
Mar 11	Air ForceAdjEM #360	N	W 80–45	−19.0	W+16.0	141.0	U125	112.3	63.2	71.2
Mar 7	Air ForceAdjEM #360	H	W 74–59	−25.5	L−10.5	145.0	U133	114.2	91.1	64.8
Mar 3	WyomingAdjEM #98	A	L 73–83	−1.5	L−11.5	144.0	O156	110.1	125.2	66.3
Feb 28	UNLVAdjEM #124	A	L 83–85 OT	−1.0	L−3.0	151.5	O168	110.0	112.7	75.4
Feb 24	New MexicoAdjEM #42	H	W 67–60	+1.0	W+8.0	150.0	U127	94.7	84.9	70.7

Santa Clara

Against the spread

Season

17-16-1

Home

9-5

Road

6-5

Last 10

3-7

avg cover +0.1

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 5 as a favoriteCovered 1 of 5 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

19-15

Home

8-6

Road

7-4

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total +7.6

Over in the last gameOver in 4 of 5 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 5 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 20	#7KentuckyAdjEM #27	N	L 84–89 OT	+3.5	L−1.5	157.5	O173	112.6	119.3	74.6
Mar 10	#12GonzagaAdjEM #8	N	L 68–79	+8.0	L−3.0	156.5	U147	112.7	130.9	60.4
Mar 9	#21Saint Mary'sAdjEM #23	N	W 76–71	+4.5	W+9.5	150.0	U147	122.9	114.8	61.8
Mar 8	PacificAdjEM #126	N	W 76–68	−9.5	L−1.5	148.0	U144	128.4	114.9	59.2
Feb 28	Oregon StAdjEM #219	H	W 93–72	−16.5	W+4.5	153.0	O165	135.8	105.2	68.5
Feb 25	Saint Mary'sAdjEM #23	A	L 67–86	+5.5	L−13.5	154.0	U153	102.4	131.5	65.4
Feb 21	San FranciscoAdjEM #148	A	W 94–73	−6.5	W+14.5	159.0	O167	125.9	97.8	74.7
Feb 14	#12GonzagaAdjEM #8	H	L 86–94	+5.0	L−3.0	158.5	O180	112.6	123.1	76.4
Feb 11	Seattle UAdjEM #125	H	W 84–72	−12.5	L−0.5	147.0	O156	122.8	105.2	68.4
Feb 7	Washington StAdjEM #174	A	W 96–92	−8.5	L−4.5	160.5	O188	135.5	129.8	70.9

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

NevadaSanta Clara

Efficiency

112.3

117.3

105.3

105.4

67.4

69.5

—

Shooting

50.0%

54.4%

48.2%

56.1%

35.8%

34.9%

75.7%

74.4%

44.8%

25.5%

Ball control & glass

14.8%

15.4%

17.0%

19.9%

32.2%

36.4%

26.9%

32.1%

8.7%

9.2%

9.5%

9.0%

Style

32.3%

45.0%

39.9%

43.7%

15.7%

15.2%

57.6%

55.0%

34.5%

35.7%

Roster

2.84

2.38

6'5.1"

85.8%

65.0%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Nevada

Returning minutes: 85.8%Returning production: 81.9%

Lost

Corey Camper Jr. 28.8 mpg, 14.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Santa Clara

Returning minutes: 65.0%Returning production: 55.6%

Lost

Elijah Mahi 30.4 mpg, 14.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Allen Graves 22.6 mpg, 11.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Bukky Oboye 17.3 mpg, 7.7 ppg · transferred to Auburn

Added

Brad Longcor III no D1 minutes last season
Malachi Douyon no D1 minutes last season
Noah Badibanga no D1 minutes last season
Chris Tadjo no D1 minutes last season
Gehrig Normand no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 65% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

Date	Season	Result
Sat, Nov 15	2025-26	Nevada 83 – 98 Santa Clara

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.