CBB Matchups
Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.
College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteT-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NVPlayers Era Sixteen
Baylor
Efficiency #55
2025-26: 17-17 · 6-13 conf
vs
Alabama
Efficiency #18
2025-26: 25-10 · 13-6 conf
Tue, Nov 24 · 10:00 PM ET
81.5
win 33%
Projected
86.6
win 67%
No line posted yet.
Model: ALA −5.1 · total 168.0 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.
How the projection is built
each step, from an average D-I game to this oneProjected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Alabama 71.9, Baylor 68.6 → 72.2 possessions
+8.5
Alabama offense vs Baylor defense
+8.2
Baylor offense vs Alabama defense
+3.1
Projected total
168.0
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Alabama offense vs Baylor defense
+8.2
Baylor offense vs Alabama defense
−3.1
Alabama by 5.1
5.1
Baylor side ◂▸ Alabama side
Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Alabama.
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 72.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Alabama is the faster team (74.2, #5 of 365) and Baylor the slower (69.3, #126). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
72.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
168.0
model
Projected team totals
81.5 / 86.6
Baylor / Alabama
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.6#155
Baylor
71.9#5
Alabama
How this game plays
what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meetPace
Track meet
Alabama averages 74.2 possessions per 40, Baylor 69.3. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 73 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
AdvantageAlabama
Where Alabama scores: shooting
Alabama shoots an effective 55.2% (#34); Baylor allows 52.4% (#237). Expect about 54.1%, 2.9 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.1 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageBaylor
Where Baylor scores: ball control
Baylor turns it over on 16.3% of possessions (#154); Alabama forces turnovers on 12.8% of opponent possessions (#359). Expect about 13.9%, 2.8 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions.
GlassBaylor
Baylor owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 36.1% is worth roughly +3.5 points per 100 possessions for Baylor's offense.
TurnoversAlabama
Alabama protects the ball
Projected turnover rate of 14.1% is worth roughly +3.3 points per 100 possessions for Alabama's offense.
ClashAlabama
Style clash: 3-point volume
Alabama takes 54.3% of its shots from three; Baylor runs teams off the line (35.0% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 48.5% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).
Baylor has the ball
OffenseAlabama allowsvs D1 avg
53.4% #84
49.2% #73
+0.2 pt/100
16.3% #154
12.8% #359
+3.5 pt/100
36.9% #18
32.8% #295
+3.5 pt/100
34.1% #202
32.0% #103
-0.3 pt/100
73.5% #155
—
+0.1 pt/100
Baylor net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.0 pts/100
Alabama has the ball
OffenseBaylor allowsvs D1 avg
55.2% #34
52.4% #237
+4.1 pt/100
13.1% #9
15.9% #226
+3.3 pt/100
32.4% #111
31.3% #219
+1.1 pt/100
36.0% #150
30.1% #61
-0.3 pt/100
76.7% #39
—
+0.4 pt/100
Alabama net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +8.5 pts/100
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbersBayloroffense vsAlabamadefense
Share of shots by zone
Baylor shoots
28.4
13.1
18.9
39.6
Alabama allows
36.8
7.0
21.2
35.0
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 62.9%#55 | 55.1%#64 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 46.3%#47 | 36.3%#98 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 43.5%#29 | 38.5%#175 | 38.0% |
| Three | 33.9%#179 | 33.8%#170 | 33.7% |
Alabamaoffense vsBaylordefense
Share of shots by zone
Alabama shoots
33.8
4.7
7.5
54.0
Baylor allows
26.3
16.6
22.4
34.7
D-I average
38.5
6.4
15.8
39.3
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 60.8%#98 | 65.9%#358 | 58.6% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 43.6%#88 | 47.6%#336 | 39.5% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 45.7%#10 | 38.9%#199 | 38.0% |
| Three | 35.8%#66 | 34.8%#240 | 33.7% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbersBaylor
+2.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#65 of 365
Off reb %
36.9%
#18
Def reb %
68.7%
#219
Turnover %
16.3%
#154
Forced TO %
15.9%
#226
FT rate
34.1%
#202
FT allowed
30.1%
#61
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+2.1
Defensive rebounding−0.2
Ball security+0.4
Forcing turnovers−0.6
Foul shots drawn−0.2
Foul shots allowed+1.3
Alabama
+0.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#148 of 365
Off reb %
32.4%
#111
Def reb %
67.2%
#295
Turnover %
13.1%
#9
Forced TO %
12.8%
#359
FT rate
36.0%
#150
FT allowed
32.0%
#103
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.6
Defensive rebounding−0.7
Ball security+2.5
Forcing turnovers−2.7
Foul shots drawn+0.2
Foul shots allowed+0.8
Baylor has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.7 (#65 of 365) to Alabama’s +0.8 (#148).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Baylor2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Tounde Yessoufou | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 32.7 | 17.8 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 52.0% | 29.3% | 5.3 | 74.6% | 31.8% | |
| 5 | Obi Agbim | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 33.3 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 49.7% | 35.6% | 6.6 | 85.4% | 19.7% | |
| 10 | Isaac Williams IV | G | So | 6'1" | 34-14 | 25.0 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 61.5% | 47.1% | 1.5 | 68.4% | 22.5% | |
| 44 | Caden Powell | C | Sr | 6'9" | 34-20 | 24.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 67.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 66.7% | 14.6% | |
| 12 | Michael Rataj | G | Sr | 6'8" | 34-19 | 23.1 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 45.2% | 21.8% | 1.6 | 70.7% | 21.3% | |
| 0 | Dan Skillings Jr. | G | Sr | 6'6" | 29-16 | 25.5 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 49.6% | 29.7% | 2.6 | 71.2% | 22.6% | |
| 46 | James Nnaji | C | Fr | 7'0" | 18-0 | 8.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 69.2% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 11.2% | |
| 2 | Will Kuykendall | G | So | 6'2" | 9-0 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 61.5% | 44.4% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 30.1% | |
| 1 | JJ White | G | Sr | 6'1" | 4-0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 12.5% | |
| 3 | Drew Perry | G | Fr | 5'10" | 9-0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 26.0% | |
| 13 | James Goodis | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 125.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | — | 12.8% | |
| 7 | Andre Iguodala II | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Juslin Bodo Bodo | C | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Maikcol Perez | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Mayo Soyoye | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Alabama2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Amari Allen | F | Fr | 6'8" | 32-24 | 28.3 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 53.3% | 34.1% | 4.3 | 73.8% | 21.7% | |
| 22 | Aiden Sherrell | F | So | 6'10" | 34-34 | 23.9 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 59.5% | 33.8% | 2.4 | 71.3% | 22.4% | |
| 2 | Aden Holloway | G | Jr | 6'1" | 28-27 | 28.4 | 16.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 59.9% | 43.8% | 6.0 | 86.4% | 27.3% | |
| 7 | Taylor Bol Bowen | F | Jr | 6'10" | 30-11 | 19.1 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 51.0% | 30.2% | 3.2 | 79.6% | 18.0% | |
| 6 | London Jemison | F | Fr | 6'8" | 33-13 | 15.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 54.1% | 34.8% | 2.7 | 60.4% | 21.5% | |
| 15 | Noah Williamson | C | Sr | 7'0" | 33-0 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 36.5% | 16.7% | 0.9 | 64.3% | 14.7% | |
| 1 | Jalil Bethea | G | So | 6'5" | 26-0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 47.5% | 31.4% | 2.0 | 80.6% | 27.6% | |
| 4 | Davion Hannah | G | Fr | 6'6" | 10-0 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 53.8% | 36.4% | 1.1 | 62.5% | 16.4% | |
| 10 | Keitenn Bristow | F | So | 6'10" | 10-1 | 12.6 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 37.9% | 11.1% | 0.9 | 73.3% | 20.0% | |
| 11 | Preston Murphy Jr. | G | Jr | 6'1" | 6-0 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3 | 100.0% | 17.8% | |
| 25 | Jacob Martin | F | So | — | 9-0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 100.0% | — | 0.0 | 50.0% | 8.1% | |
| 34 | Collins Onyejiaka | C | Fr | 6'11" | 2-0 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 22.7% | |
| 31 | Jack Fagan | G | So | — | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | |
| 30 | Klark James | G | Sr | — | 1-0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Baylor2025-26 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Tounde Yessoufou | G | Fr | 6'5" | 34-34 | 32.7 | 17.8 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 52.0% | 29.3% | 5.3 | 74.6% | 31.8% | |
| 5 | Obi Agbim | G | Sr | 6'3" | 33-33 | 33.3 | 10.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 49.7% | 35.6% | 6.6 | 85.4% | 19.7% | |
| 10 | Isaac Williams IV | G | So | 6'1" | 34-14 | 25.0 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 61.5% | 47.1% | 1.5 | 68.4% | 22.5% | |
| 44 | Caden Powell | C | Sr | 6'9" | 34-20 | 24.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 67.2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 66.7% | 14.6% | |
| 12 | Michael Rataj | G | Sr | 6'8" | 34-19 | 23.1 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 45.2% | 21.8% | 1.6 | 70.7% | 21.3% | |
| 0 | Dan Skillings Jr. | G | Sr | 6'6" | 29-16 | 25.5 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 49.6% | 29.7% | 2.6 | 71.2% | 22.6% | |
| 46 | James Nnaji | C | Fr | 7'0" | 18-0 | 8.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 69.2% | — | 0.0 | 57.1% | 11.2% | |
| 2 | Will Kuykendall | G | So | 6'2" | 9-0 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 61.5% | 44.4% | 1.0 | 100.0% | 30.1% | |
| 1 | JJ White | G | Sr | 6'1" | 4-0 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 1.5 | — | 12.5% | |
| 3 | Drew Perry | G | Fr | 5'10" | 9-0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 42.9% | 28.6% | 0.8 | 66.7% | 26.0% | |
| 13 | James Goodis | G | Jr | 6'0" | 3-0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 125.0% | 100.0% | 0.3 | — | 12.8% | |
| 7 | Andre Iguodala II | G | Fr | 6'7" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 21 | Juslin Bodo Bodo | C | Jr | 6'11" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 20 | Maikcol Perez | F | Fr | 6'8" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — | |
| 15 | Mayo Soyoye | C | Fr | 6'10" | 0-0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | — |
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Trends
Last 10 games of 2025-26Baylor
Against the spread
Season
14-18-1
Home
6-9-1
Road
5-5
Last 10
4-5-1
avg cover −1.8
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 2 of 6 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 4 as an underdog, 1 push
Over / under
Season
18-15
Home
11-5
Road
3-7
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total −0.1
Under 2 straightOver in 3 of 6 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 as an underdog
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4 | Oklahoma | N | L 69–82 | −1.5 | L−14.5 | 159.5 | U151 | 98.5 | 117.1 | 70.0 |
| Apr 1 | Minnesota | N | W 67–48 | −3.5 | W+15.5 | 146.5 | U115 | 112.7 | 80.7 | 59.5 |
| Mar 10 | Arizona St | N | L 79–83 | −5.0 | L−9.0 | 152.5 | O162 | 111.6 | 117.3 | 70.8 |
| Mar 7 | Utah | H | W 101–75 | −12.0 | W+14.0 | 148.5 | O176 | 159.9 | 118.7 | 63.2 |
| Mar 4 | #7Houston | A | L 64–77 | +13.5 | W+0.5 | 144.5 | U141 | 98.2 | 118.2 | 65.2 |
| Feb 28 | UCF | A | W 87–86 | +1.5 | W+2.5 | 159.0 | O173 | 131.3 | 129.8 | 66.2 |
| Feb 24 | #2Arizona | H | L 80–87 | +7.0 | P0.0 | 155.5 | O167 | 122.2 | 132.9 | 65.4 |
| Feb 21 | Arizona St | H | W 73–68 | −8.5 | L−3.5 | 158.0 | U141 | 111.6 | 104.0 | 65.4 |
| Feb 17 | Kansas St | A | L 74–90 | −3.5 | L−19.5 | 159.0 | O164 | 91.3 | 111.1 | 81.0 |
| Feb 14 | #24Louisville | N | L 71–82 | +7.0 | L−4.0 | 161.5 | U153 | 104.6 | 120.8 | 67.9 |
Alabama
Against the spread
Season
16-19
Home
6-9
Road
5-5
Last 10
5-5
avg cover +2.7
Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 8 as a favorite
Over / under
Season
18-17
Home
7-8
Road
7-3
Last 10
5-5
avg vs total +2.0
Under 2 straightOver in 5 of 8 as a favorite
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 | #1Michigan | N | L 77–90 | +9.5 | L−3.5 | 173.0 | U167 | 108.3 | 126.6 | 71.1 |
| Mar 22 | #5Texas Tech | N | W 90–65 | −1.0 | W+24.0 | 164.5 | U155 | 129.9 | 93.8 | 69.3 |
| Mar 20 | #13Hofstra | N | W 90–70 | −11.5 | W+8.5 | 159.0 | O160 | 129.1 | 100.4 | 69.7 |
| Mar 13 | Ole Miss | N | L 79–80 | −12.5 | L−13.5 | 164.5 | U159 | 107.5 | 108.8 | 73.5 |
| Mar 7 | Auburn | H | W 96–84 | −6.0 | W+6.0 | 175.0 | O180 | 134.9 | 118.0 | 71.2 |
| Mar 3 | Georgia | A | L 88–98 | −1.5 | L−11.5 | 180.0 | O186 | 117.7 | 131.1 | 74.7 |
| Feb 28 | #22Tennessee | A | W 71–69 | +5.0 | W+7.0 | 162.5 | U140 | 112.7 | 109.5 | 63.0 |
| Feb 25 | Mississippi St | H | W 100–75 | −12.5 | W+12.5 | 175.5 | U175 | 131.7 | 98.8 | 75.9 |
| Feb 21 | LSU | A | W 90–83 | −7.5 | L−0.5 | 172.0 | O173 | 126.7 | 116.9 | 71.0 |
| Feb 18 | #20Arkansas | H | W 117–115 2OT | −4.0 | L−2.0 | 181.0 | O232 | 133.6 | 131.3 | 87.6 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Tale of the tape
national rank toned left for away, right for homeBaylorAlabama
Efficiency
116.4
120.7
107.6
104.9
68.6
71.9
—
—
Shooting
53.4%
55.2%
55.2%
57.0%
33.9%
35.8%
73.5%
76.7%
34.1%
36.0%
Ball control & glass
16.3%
13.1%
15.9%
12.8%
36.9%
32.4%
31.3%
32.8%
9.7%
8.6%
8.8%
12.6%
Style
39.7%
54.3%
44.8%
35.8%
13.6%
14.3%
52.2%
54.3%
22.3%
33.9%
Roster
3.01
2.08
6'5.3"
6'7.4"
83.1%
62.0%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputBaylor
Returning minutes: 83.1%Returning production: 77.9%
Lost
- Cameron Carr 33.7 mpg, 18.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Maikcol Perez no D1 minutes last season
- Mayo Soyoye no D1 minutes last season
- Andre Iguodala II no D1 minutes last season
- Juslin Bodo Bodo no D1 minutes last season
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 83% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Alabama
Returning minutes: 62.0%Returning production: 60.6%
Lost
- Labaron Philon Jr. 29.1 mpg, 20.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Houston Mallette 23.3 mpg, 6.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Latrell Wrightsell Jr. 21.0 mpg, 10.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Charles Bediako 3.1 mpg, 1.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
Nobody of note.
No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.
Returns 62% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5.
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.