CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceSwinney Center, Kansas City, MO

Green Bay

Efficiency #222

2025-26: 18-15 · 13-9 conf

Kansas City

Efficiency #359

2025-26: 4-27 · 1-16 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · TBD

76.0

win 68%

Projected

70.5

win 32%

No line posted yet.

Model: GB −5.6 · total 146.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Kansas City 69.9, Green Bay 65.4 → 67.0 possessions

−2.8

Kansas City offense vs Green Bay defense

−4.2

Green Bay offense vs Kansas City defense

+5.2

Projected total

146.5

Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Kansas City offense vs Green Bay defense

−4.2

Green Bay offense vs Kansas City defense

−5.2

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Green Bay by 5.6

5.6

Green Bay side ◂▸ Kansas City side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 146.4 against a projected 146.5, and the margin steps add to −5.5 against −5.6. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kansas City.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 67.0, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kansas City is the faster team (71.4, #35 of 365) and Green Bay the slower (64.7, #336). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

67.0

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.5

model

Projected team totals

76.0 / 70.5

Green Bay / Kansas City

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

65.4#360

Green Bay

69.9#54

Kansas City

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageGreen Bay

Where Green Bay scores: shooting

Green Bay shoots an effective 54.9% (#41); Kansas City allows 56.3% (#348). Expect about 55.9%, 4.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.6 points per 100 possessions.

Pace

Tempo tug-of-war

Kansas City averages 71.4 possessions per 40, Green Bay 64.7. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 67 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.

AdvantageKansas City

Where Kansas City struggles: shooting

Kansas City shoots an effective 45.7% (#352); Green Bay allows 53.6% (#287). Expect about 49.3%, 2.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -2.9 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Kansas City, Green Bay, Kansas City's defense, Green Bay's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Green Bay at about 37.4% of its shots from three, Kansas City about 39.8%.

GlassKansas City

Kansas City gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.2% is worth roughly -2.0 points per 100 possessions against Kansas City's offense.

TurnoversKansas City

Kansas City protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 15.3% is worth roughly +1.9 points per 100 possessions for Kansas City's offense.

Green Bay has the ball

OffenseKansas City allowsvs D1 avg

54.9% #41

56.3% #348

+6.6 pt/100

16.0% #138

16.4% #192

+0.8 pt/100

25.1% #339

35.9% #353

-0.6 pt/100

41.6% #36

31.4% #94

+0.1 pt/100

77.5% #24

—

+0.4 pt/100

Green Bay net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.4 pts/100

Kansas City has the ball

OffenseGreen Bay allowsvs D1 avg

45.7% #352

53.6% #287

-2.9 pt/100

18.2% #281

13.2% #351

+1.9 pt/100

26.4% #314

29.6% #140

-2.0 pt/100

29.2% #330

37.4% #249

-0.2 pt/100

66.2% #352

—

-0.5 pt/100

Kansas City net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.7 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Green Bayoffense vsKansas Citydefense

Share of shots by zone

Green Bay shoots

46.6

5.2

10.9

37.2

Kansas City allows

43.0

5.0

13.9

38.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	59.6%#136	63.1%#326	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	48.1%#22	39.7%#185	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.0%#220	40.9%#273	38.0%
Three	36.4%#42	37.6%#350	33.7%

Kansas Cityoffense vsGreen Baydefense

Share of shots by zone

Kansas City shoots

34.3

9.1

19.7

37.0

Green Bay allows

36.5

7.5

12.9

43.2

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	53.7%#322	61.3%#279	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.3%#263	38.7%#151	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.1%#260	37.6%#146	38.0%
Three	28.4%#360	36.3%#316	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Green Bay

−2.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#274 of 365

Off reb %

25.1%

#339

Def reb %

70.4%

#140

Turnover %

16.0%

#138

Forced TO %

13.2%

#351

FT rate

41.6%

#36

FT allowed

37.4%

#249

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.7

Defensive rebounding+0.3

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−2.4

Foul shots drawn+1.7

Foul shots allowed−0.6

Kansas City

−4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#344 of 365

Off reb %

26.4%

#314

Def reb %

64.1%

#353

Turnover %

18.2%

#281

Forced TO %

16.4%

#192

FT rate

29.2%

#330

FT allowed

31.4%

#94

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.3

Defensive rebounding−1.7

Ball security−1.0

Forcing turnovers−0.2

Foul shots drawn−1.5

Foul shots allowed+1.0

Green Bay has more extra scoring chances per game: −2.1 (#274 of 365) to Kansas City’s −4.7 (#344).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Green Bay2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Green Bay's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Preston Ruedinger	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	35.3	11.6	3.8	5.5	1.5	54.7%	41.1%	4.9	90.8%	19.6%
10	C.J. O'Hara	G	So	6'4"	33-33	32.6	14.1	4.4	1.2	1.5	58.2%	28.0%	0.8	79.4%	23.6%
13	Marcus Hall	F	Jr	6'6"	30-30	34.6	13.9	5.2	2.5	1.6	58.6%	40.6%	5.2	76.4%	22.7%
7	Justin Allen	G	Sr	6'4"	32-22	26.4	13.6	3.7	1.7	1.2	51.5%	25.3%	2.8	82.5%	31.0%
23	Caden Wilkins	F	So	6'6"	33-22	21.5	6.9	2.9	0.6	0.7	56.5%	40.3%	3.6	68.3%	18.9%
22	LeBron Thomas	G	Jr	6'3"	32-6	12.0	4.0	1.9	0.9	1.0	48.7%	11.1%	0.3	68.4%	23.0%
0	Ramel Bethea	F	So	6'9"	30-4	12.7	3.6	2.6	0.3	0.6	74.6%	0.0%	0.0	66.7%	14.4%
4	Mac Wrecke	G	So	6'5"	23-5	11.6	3.3	1.4	0.3	0.4	55.7%	36.0%	1.1	69.6%	16.3%
20	Maruan Cicic	C	Fr	7'0"	21-9	11.5	2.8	1.8	0.1	0.6	59.1%	0.0%	0.0	63.6%	15.6%
3	Keegan Van Kauwenberg	G	Fr	6'3"	18-0	9.6	2.1	0.8	0.6	0.4	54.4%	34.6%	1.4	—	15.1%
15	Rob Stroud	F	Sr	6'5"	12-1	5.5	3.4	1.2	0.1	0.3	43.9%	16.7%	0.5	75.0%	40.1%
1	Josh Hines	G	Jr	6'2"	5-0	11.0	3.8	1.2	1.2	0.0	63.3%	33.3%	1.8	0.0%	16.3%
12	Dontrell Hewlett	G	Sr	6'4"	4-0	11.5	3.8	1.5	1.5	0.8	28.9%	14.3%	1.8	50.0%	33.5%
21	Brady Fitzgerald	G	Fr	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	50.0%	6.8%
11	Trey Schachter	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Kansas City2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	CJ Evans	G	Jr	5'11"	30-30	30.4	11.6	2.5	3.8	2.8	43.4%	22.4%	1.6	70.9%	27.6%
0	Karmello Branch	G	Jr	6'4"	28-26	29.7	12.1	2.6	1.5	1.5	47.1%	32.7%	7.3	84.5%	25.3%
33	Jerome Palm	F	Sr	6'10"	31-27	26.0	7.8	6.1	1.3	1.2	48.9%	21.7%	0.7	44.4%	19.9%
7	Kasheem Grady II	G	Sr	6'5"	30-11	25.7	10.0	3.2	1.2	1.5	47.3%	29.5%	4.3	80.8%	24.3%
4	Chris Dockery	G	Jr	6'6"	29-20	22.2	7.2	6.0	0.9	1.4	54.8%	32.1%	1.0	56.7%	19.8%
23	Addarin Scott	F	Sr	6'8"	29-5	12.5	3.8	2.8	0.5	0.8	48.4%	0.0%	0.1	57.9%	20.3%
3	Jamaria Clark	G	Jr	6'2"	27-1	11.9	2.8	0.5	0.9	0.6	35.9%	21.3%	1.7	95.0%	18.1%
8	Trey Booker-Lowery	G	Jr	6'7"	25-1	10.5	4.6	1.8	0.3	0.8	44.2%	32.3%	1.2	53.6%	31.1%
21	Babacar Mbengue	F	So	7'0"	25-1	8.0	1.2	1.5	0.3	0.4	48.0%	—	0.0	26.3%	12.8%
11	Kernan Bundy	G	Sr	6'2"	6-1	13.0	3.0	1.2	1.2	1.2	27.5%	23.1%	2.2	77.8%	21.5%
13	D'Andre Harrison	F	Fr	6'6"	6-1	12.3	2.8	2.0	0.2	0.5	42.9%	0.0%	0.2	62.5%	15.2%
5	Cory Curtis Jr.	G	Sr	6'4"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
10	Jason Hilliard	F	Jr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Max Sims	G	Jr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Green Bay2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Green Bay's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
2	Preston Ruedinger	G	Sr	6'2"	33-33	35.3	11.6	3.8	5.5	1.5	54.7%	41.1%	4.9	90.8%	19.6%
10	C.J. O'Hara	G	So	6'4"	33-33	32.6	14.1	4.4	1.2	1.5	58.2%	28.0%	0.8	79.4%	23.6%
13	Marcus Hall	F	Jr	6'6"	30-30	34.6	13.9	5.2	2.5	1.6	58.6%	40.6%	5.2	76.4%	22.7%
7	Justin Allen	G	Sr	6'4"	32-22	26.4	13.6	3.7	1.7	1.2	51.5%	25.3%	2.8	82.5%	31.0%
23	Caden Wilkins	F	So	6'6"	33-22	21.5	6.9	2.9	0.6	0.7	56.5%	40.3%	3.6	68.3%	18.9%
22	LeBron Thomas	G	Jr	6'3"	32-6	12.0	4.0	1.9	0.9	1.0	48.7%	11.1%	0.3	68.4%	23.0%
0	Ramel Bethea	F	So	6'9"	30-4	12.7	3.6	2.6	0.3	0.6	74.6%	0.0%	0.0	66.7%	14.4%
4	Mac Wrecke	G	So	6'5"	23-5	11.6	3.3	1.4	0.3	0.4	55.7%	36.0%	1.1	69.6%	16.3%
20	Maruan Cicic	C	Fr	7'0"	21-9	11.5	2.8	1.8	0.1	0.6	59.1%	0.0%	0.0	63.6%	15.6%
3	Keegan Van Kauwenberg	G	Fr	6'3"	18-0	9.6	2.1	0.8	0.6	0.4	54.4%	34.6%	1.4	—	15.1%
15	Rob Stroud	F	Sr	6'5"	12-1	5.5	3.4	1.2	0.1	0.3	43.9%	16.7%	0.5	75.0%	40.1%
1	Josh Hines	G	Jr	6'2"	5-0	11.0	3.8	1.2	1.2	0.0	63.3%	33.3%	1.8	0.0%	16.3%
12	Dontrell Hewlett	G	Sr	6'4"	4-0	11.5	3.8	1.5	1.5	0.8	28.9%	14.3%	1.8	50.0%	33.5%
21	Brady Fitzgerald	G	Fr	6'4"	5-0	1.6	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	50.0%	6.8%
11	Trey Schachter	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Green Bay

Against the spread

Season

19-12

Home

8-4

Road

8-7

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +4.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 4 of 4 as a favoriteCovered 2 of 6 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

16-15

Home

6-6

Road

7-8

Last 10

5-5

avg vs total +0.7

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 4 as a favoriteOver in 4 of 6 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 8	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	N	L 76–96	+4.0	L−16.0	147.5	O172	115.2	145.5	66.0
Mar 3	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	W 64–56	−4.5	W+3.5	145.0	U120	110.6	96.7	57.9
Feb 28	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	H	W 85–63	−1.5	W+20.5	142.0	O148	130.0	96.4	65.4
Feb 22	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	A	L 70–74	+1.0	L−3.0	147.5	U144	101.4	107.2	69.0
Feb 20	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 73–68	+6.5	W+11.5	153.5	U141	115.7	107.8	63.1
Feb 15	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	A	L 72–75	+2.5	L−0.5	145.5	O147	117.0	121.8	61.6
Feb 12	Purdue FWAdjEM #258	H	W 76–59	−1.5	W+15.5	144.5	U135	129.0	100.1	58.9
Feb 7	Detroit MercyAdjEM #224	H	W 76–63	−4.0	W+9.0	148.0	U139	114.3	94.7	66.5
Feb 4	N KentuckyAdjEM #164	A	W 87–84 OT	+8.0	W+11.0	150.5	O171	115.3	111.3	75.5
Feb 1	Wright StAdjEM #119	H	L 75–83	+4.0	L−4.0	144.0	O158	118.4	131.1	63.3

Kansas City

Against the spread

Season

5-23

Home

1-10

Road

4-12

Last 10

0-10

avg cover −11.4

Missed the spread 15 straightCovered 0 of 10 as an underdogCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

16-12

Home

6-5

Road

10-6

Last 10

6-4

avg vs total −2.1

Under in the last gameOver in 6 of 10 as an underdogOver in 3 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 4	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	N	L 62–84	+8.5	L−13.5	149.0	U146	88.9	120.5	69.7
Feb 28	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	H	L 70–94	+3.5	L−20.5	149.5	O164	95.1	127.7	73.6
Feb 26	S Dakota StAdjEM #197	H	L 59–73	+12.0	L−2.0	151.0	U132	92.0	113.8	64.1
Feb 21	N Dakota StAdjEM #90	A	L 59–95	+19.5	L−16.5	147.5	O154	76.4	123.0	77.2
Feb 19	North DakotaAdjEM #291	A	L 70–85	+9.5	L−5.5	150.5	O155	90.7	110.2	77.1
Feb 14	St ThomasAdjEM #84	H	L 64–104	+13.0	L−27.0	153.5	O168	87.9	142.9	72.8
Feb 12	Oral RobertsAdjEM #314	A	L 60–69	+6.0	L−3.0	149.5	U129	92.2	106.0	65.1
Feb 4	South DakotaAdjEM #292	H	L 75–82 OT	+2.0	L−5.0	156.0	O157	93.3	102.0	80.4
Feb 1	St ThomasAdjEM #84	A	L 64–99	+18.5	L−16.5	150.0	O163	86.5	133.8	74.0
Jan 28	DenverAdjEM #243	H	L 61–69	+3.5	L−4.5	163.0	U130	90.6	102.5	67.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Green BayKansas City

Efficiency

110.7

97.7

113.0

114.1

65.4

69.9

—

Shooting

54.9%

45.7%

55.0%

47.6%

36.4%

28.4%

77.5%

66.2%

41.6%

29.2%

Ball control & glass

16.0%

18.2%

13.2%

16.4%

25.1%

26.4%

29.6%

35.9%

9.4%

10.9%

9.3%

9.4%

Style

37.3%

36.8%

44.9%

46.9%

10.7%

14.5%

54.5%

46.2%

27.2%

29.7%

Roster

2.82

3.32

6'4.7"

6'5"

—

84.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Green Bay

Returning minutes: 97.1%Returning production: 98.1%

ESPN hasn't posted Green Bay's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 97% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Kansas City

Returning minutes: 84.5%Returning production: 83.6%

Lost

Jayson Petty 31.1 mpg, 11.1 ppg · transferred to C Michigan

Added

Cory Curtis Jr. no D1 minutes last season
Max Sims no D1 minutes last season
Jason Hilliard no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 84% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.