CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceNeutral siteHard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya, Cancun, MexicoCancun Challenge - Riviera Division
E Michigan
Efficiency #247
2025-26: 10-21 · 4-14 conf
vs
Kennesaw St
Efficiency #154
2025-26: 21-14 · 13-10 conf
Tue, Nov 24 · 6:00 PM ET
73.0
win 39%
Projected
76.3
win 61%
No line posted yet.
Model: KENN −3.3 · total 149.3 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Kennesaw St 70.8, E Michigan 67.8 → 70.2 possessions
+4.1
Kennesaw St offense vs E Michigan defense
+0.1
E Michigan offense vs Kennesaw St defense
−3.2
Projected total
149.3
Axis starts at 146 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Kennesaw St offense vs E Michigan defense
+0.1
E Michigan offense vs Kennesaw St defense
+3.2
Kennesaw St by 3.3
3.3
E Michigan side ◂▸ Kennesaw St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the total steps add to 149.2 against a projected 149.3. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Kennesaw St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Kennesaw St is the faster team (71.8, #28 of 365) and E Michigan the slower (68.3, #184). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
70.2
per team, 40 min
Projected total
149.3
model
Projected team totals
73.0 / 76.3
E Michigan / Kennesaw St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
67.8#226
E Michigan
70.8#20
Kennesaw St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageE Michigan
Where E Michigan struggles: shooting
E Michigan shoots an effective 49.6% (#264); Kennesaw St allows 48.3% (#43). Expect about 48.8%, 2.5 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.6 points per 100 possessions.
DefenseKennesaw St
Kennesaw St's shot-blocking
Kennesaw St ranks #13 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 13.0% of E Michigan's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantageKennesaw St
Where Kennesaw St scores: the offensive glass
Kennesaw St rebounds 35.2% of its own misses (#44); E Michigan lets opponents grab 29.1% of their own misses (#109). Expect about 33.1%, 2.7 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +1.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashE Michigan
Style clash: paint scoring
E Michigan scores 49.7% of its points in the paint; Kennesaw St protects the paint (38.2% of opponents' points) (D1 average 42.8%). Expect about 42.9% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.25 vs 0.34).
E Michigan has the ball
OffenseKennesaw St allowsvs D1 avg
49.6% #264
48.3% #43
-3.6 pt/100
17.4% #229
16.0% #221
+0.2 pt/100
27.8% #273
31.6% #234
-0.8 pt/100
29.3% #325
47.1% #358
+0.5 pt/100
73.2% #162
—
+0.1 pt/100
E Michigan net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -3.5 pts/100
Kennesaw St has the ball
OffenseE Michigan allowsvs D1 avg
50.4% #224
50.3% #115
-1.5 pt/100
16.7% #178
15.6% #244
+1.0 pt/100
35.2% #44
29.1% #109
+1.6 pt/100
45.1% #5
35.5% #198
+0.6 pt/100
70.1% #268
—
-0.2 pt/100
Kennesaw St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
E Michiganoffense vsKennesaw Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
E Michigan shoots
Kennesaw St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim59.7%#12951.0%#858.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)36.4%#25944.6%#28439.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)32.5%#33836.1%#11338.0%
Three32.4%#25833.5%#15433.7%
Kennesaw Stoffense vsE Michigandefense
Share of shots by zone
Kennesaw St shoots
E Michigan allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.7%#25057.0%#11258.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.1%#32935.7%#8239.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)34.4%#30242.0%#30438.0%
Three33.4%#20332.9%#11133.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
E Michigan
−3.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#305 of 365
Off reb %
27.8%
#273
Def reb %
70.9%
#109
Turnover %
17.4%
#229
Forced TO %
15.6%
#244
FT rate
29.3%
#325
FT allowed
35.5%
#198
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.8
Defensive rebounding+0.5
Ball security−0.4
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn−1.5
Foul shots allowed−0.1
Kennesaw St
+0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#166 of 365
Off reb %
35.2%
#44
Def reb %
68.4%
#234
Turnover %
16.7%
#178
Forced TO %
16.0%
#221
FT rate
45.1%
#5
FT allowed
47.1%
#358
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.6
Defensive rebounding−0.3
Ball security0.0
Forcing turnovers−0.5
Foul shots drawn+2.6
Foul shots allowed−3.0

Kennesaw St has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.4 (#166 of 365) to E Michigan’s −3.0 (#305).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

E Michigan2025-26 numbers
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
4Mohammad HabhabFSo6'10"30-3036.014.28.33.12.341.1%22.2%1.274.3%28.6%
3Jabri Fitzpatrickat New HavenGJr6'2"31-3034.515.04.52.62.150.0%29.8%3.974.5%28.7%
2Emanuel Richardsat LongwoodGSr6'4"32-3126.09.73.41.11.548.4%32.1%2.473.5%23.6%
14Kilian Brockhoffat William & MaryFSr6'8"32-3121.710.73.62.12.254.1%32.3%4.075.0%28.7%
5Braelon GreenGSr6'3"28-1420.44.61.81.40.949.2%36.4%1.656.5%15.9%
0Gregory Lawson IIGSo6'3"28-1217.97.11.00.70.752.3%43.2%3.190.0%23.5%
8Sencire Harrisat CincinnatiGSr6'4"31-816.95.72.71.50.840.5%18.2%1.162.5%24.1%
44Aviv AronovGFr6'5"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
12DaCory PorterGSr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
30Jaiden MartinGJr6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
13Jordan WrightFJr6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
1Kaden JohnsonFSr6'11"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
20Max BooherGSo6'4"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
7Omar SuleimanFSo6'6"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.
Transfers in: Kilian Brockhoff (from William & Mary), Jabri Fitzpatrick (from New Haven), Sencire Harris (from Cincinnati), Emanuel Richards (from Longwood)

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
E MichiganKennesaw St
Efficiency
103.9
109.6
107.6
108.5
67.8
70.8
—
—
Shooting
49.6%
50.4%
50.0%
50.5%
32.4%
33.4%
73.2%
70.1%
29.3%
45.1%
Ball control & glass
17.4%
16.7%
15.6%
16.0%
27.8%
35.2%
29.1%
31.6%
9.5%
11.0%
9.7%
13.0%
Style
31.8%
42.5%
49.7%
40.7%
13.1%
11.3%
47.9%
50.9%
30.3%
34.4%
Roster
3.20
2.17
6'5.1"
6'6.7"
34.4%
86.5%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
E Michigan
Returning minutes: 34.4%Returning production: 32.0%
Lost
  • Addison Patterson 29.7 mpg, 13.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Godslove Nwabude 18.7 mpg, 5.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Carlos Hart 18.7 mpg, 7.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Jon Sanders II 14.9 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mak Manciel 13.0 mpg, 5.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Mehki Ellison 11.6 mpg, 3.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Jabri Fitzpatrick from New Haven · 34.5 mpg, 15.0 ppg last season
  • Emanuel Richards from Longwood · 26.0 mpg, 9.7 ppg last season
  • Kilian Brockhoff from William & Mary · 21.7 mpg, 10.7 ppg last season
  • Sencire Harris from Cincinnati · 15.9 mpg, 5.4 ppg last season
  • Omar Suleiman no D1 minutes last season
  • Aviv Aronov no D1 minutes last season

Returns 34% of last season's minutes; lost 3 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Kennesaw St
Returning minutes: 86.5%Returning production: 84.0%
Lost
  • RJ Johnson 27.3 mpg, 14.1 ppg · transferred to Mississippi St
Added
  • Brendan Tousignaut no D1 minutes last season
  • Chase Clemmons no D1 minutes last season
  • Nigel Thomas no D1 minutes last season
  • Jamil Miller no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 86% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.