CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceNeutral siteMichelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NVPlayers Era Sixteen

St John's

Efficiency #16

2025-26: 30-7 · 21-2 conf

Oregon

Efficiency #143

2025-26: 12-20 · 5-16 conf

Tue, Nov 24 · 10:30 PM ET

78.4

win 80%

Projected

68.5

win 20%

No line posted yet.

Model: SJU −9.9 · total 146.9 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Oregon 67.4, St John's 69.7 → 68.8 possessions

+1.0

Oregon offense vs St John's defense

−6.1

St John's offense vs Oregon defense

+3.8

Projected total

146.9

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Oregon offense vs St John's defense

−6.1

St John's offense vs Oregon defense

−3.8

St John's by 9.9

9.9

St John's side ◂▸ Oregon side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Oregon.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.8, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, St John's is the faster team (70.6, #74 of 365) and Oregon the slower (66.5, #270). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.8

per team, 40 min

Projected total

146.9

model

Projected team totals

78.4 / 68.5

St John's / Oregon

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.7#70

St John's

67.4#258

Oregon

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageOregon

Where Oregon struggles: shooting

Oregon shoots an effective 49.5% (#271); St John's allows 47.5% (#32). Expect about 48.3%, 3.0 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -4.2 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageSt John's

Where St John's scores: the offensive glass

St John's rebounds 35.2% of its own misses (#43); Oregon lets opponents grab 32.3% of their own misses (#271). Expect about 34.7%, 4.3 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.

TurnoversSt John's

St John's protects the ball

Projected turnover rate of 14.8% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for St John's's offense.

TurnoversOregon

Oregon turns it over

Projected turnover rate of 18.7% is worth roughly -2.4 points per 100 possessions against Oregon's offense.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (St John's's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect St John's at about 37.7% of its shots from three, Oregon about 38.0%.

ClashOregon

Style clash: 3-point volume

Oregon takes 42.8% of its shots from three; St John's runs teams off the line (33.1% of shots allowed from three) (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 38.0% — the offense's habit usually carries a bit more weight (0.80 vs 0.64).

St John's has the ball

OffenseOregon allowsvs D1 avg

51.1% #192

50.9% #148

-0.5 pt/100

14.4% #39

15.7% #234

+2.5 pt/100

35.2% #43

32.3% #271

+2.6 pt/100

40.2% #57

32.0% #105

+0.1 pt/100

72.2% #200

—

-0.0 pt/100

St John's net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +4.7 pts/100

Oregon has the ball

OffenseSt John's allowsvs D1 avg

49.5% #271

47.5% #32

-4.2 pt/100

17.6% #248

19.1% #44

-2.4 pt/100

32.3% #114

29.9% #154

+0.7 pt/100

35.0% #181

31.8% #100

-0.2 pt/100

73.0% #169

—

+0.1 pt/100

Oregon net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -6.2 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

St John'soffense vsOregondefense

Share of shots by zone

St John's shoots

42.7

6.5

15.7

35.1

Oregon allows

30.9

6.5

20.6

42.0

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.5%#177	57.2%#122	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	34.1%#302	44.5%#282	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	37.2%#215	43.9%#339	38.0%
Three	33.5%#196	33.4%#144	33.7%

Oregonoffense vsSt John'sdefense

Share of shots by zone

Oregon shoots

33.8

7.2

16.8

42.3

St John's allows

42.4

7.1

18.2

32.3

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	58.8%#166	53.8%#38	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	39.8%#178	33.6%#36	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	36.7%#243	39.0%#201	38.0%
Three	32.1%#277	31.3%#39	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

St John's

+7.2extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#6 of 365

Off reb %

35.2%

#43

Def reb %

70.1%

#154

Turnover %

14.4%

#39

Forced TO %

19.1%

#44

FT rate

40.2%

#57

FT allowed

31.8%

#100

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+1.6

Defensive rebounding+0.2

Ball security+1.6

Forcing turnovers+1.6

Foul shots drawn+1.3

Foul shots allowed+0.9

Oregon

−0.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#193 of 365

Off reb %

32.3%

#114

Def reb %

67.7%

#271

Turnover %

17.6%

#248

Forced TO %

15.7%

#234

FT rate

35.0%

#181

FT allowed

32.0%

#105

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.6

Defensive rebounding−0.5

Ball security−0.6

Forcing turnovers−0.7

Foul shots drawn0.0

Foul shots allowed+0.8

St John's has more extra scoring chances per game: +7.2 (#6 of 365) to Oregon’s −0.4 (#193).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

St John's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Joson Sanon	G	So	6'5"	37-14	20.9	7.9	2.4	0.7	1.1	42.9%	33.6%	3.9	76.8%	25.0%
0	Dylan Darling	G	Jr	6'1"	35-15	21.3	6.9	2.5	2.6	1.0	47.1%	27.7%	2.9	71.8%	20.4%
11	Ian Jackson	G	So	6'5"	36-19	18.3	9.4	2.3	1.3	1.4	49.6%	34.3%	4.0	90.0%	31.3%
17	Ruben Prey	F	So	6'11"	37-1	10.7	4.3	2.1	0.8	0.5	57.9%	62.5%	0.6	67.2%	21.5%
31	Lefteris Liotopoulos	G	So	6'4"	30-0	7.7	2.9	0.9	0.4	0.4	45.9%	32.1%	1.8	77.8%	23.8%
5	Kelvin Odih	G	Fr	6'4"	10-0	5.4	1.5	1.9	0.2	0.5	46.7%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	20.6%
6	Casper Pohto	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.4	0.4	0.8	0.2	0.4	20.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	13.2%
44	Handje Tamba	C	Sr	6'11"	8-0	2.4	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.1	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	16.3%
7	Fotis Konstantinidis	G	Fr	6'2"	6-0	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.0	150.0%	100.0%	0.2	—	6.7%
22	Imran Suljanovic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Oregon2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Takai Simpkins	G	Sr	6'4"	31-31	32.0	12.5	2.9	2.4	2.1	51.0%	35.7%	4.5	84.8%	24.7%
10	Kwame Evans Jr.	F	Jr	6'10"	30-30	31.0	13.3	7.4	2.0	1.9	51.1%	30.4%	3.4	79.9%	25.9%
13	Sean Stewart	F	Jr	6'9"	32-23	23.0	6.5	5.2	1.2	1.2	51.2%	100.0%	0.0	53.3%	19.4%
4	Dezdrick Lindsay	F	Sr	6'6"	32-8	20.5	5.3	2.8	1.5	0.8	46.4%	32.8%	1.8	58.3%	18.7%
23	Wei Lin	G	So	6'4"	30-9	17.5	6.6	0.9	1.7	1.2	43.1%	29.5%	3.5	82.4%	27.4%
12	Drew Carter	G	Sr	6'3"	25-11	14.8	2.7	1.2	0.8	0.8	53.4%	34.8%	1.8	85.7%	13.5%
24	Jamari Phillips	G	So	6'4"	26-0	11.3	2.7	0.9	0.5	0.5	43.8%	29.5%	2.3	83.3%	18.7%
22	Devon Pryor	F	Jr	6'7"	16-11	18.1	2.9	2.5	1.2	0.6	47.5%	22.2%	1.1	47.4%	11.9%
6	Oleksandr Kobzystyi	F	Sr	6'8"	19-0	9.6	2.7	1.3	0.3	0.1	53.6%	39.1%	1.2	66.7%	16.0%
16	Ege Demir	C	Jr	6'11"	19-0	9.0	2.2	3.5	0.3	0.7	44.4%	—	0.0	28.6%	21.5%
7	Luke Johnson	F	So	6'8"	11-0	6.0	1.2	0.7	0.1	0.2	41.7%	25.0%	0.7	50.0%	15.8%
0	Efe Vatan	F	Fr	6'10"	5-0	3.0	1.2	0.4	0.0	0.2	66.7%	—	0.0	66.7%	23.3%
35	Miles Stewart	F	Sr	6'8"	1-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	0.0%
15	Rian Gonzales	G	Fr	6'3"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

St John's2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
3	Joson Sanon	G	So	6'5"	37-14	20.9	7.9	2.4	0.7	1.1	42.9%	33.6%	3.9	76.8%	25.0%
0	Dylan Darling	G	Jr	6'1"	35-15	21.3	6.9	2.5	2.6	1.0	47.1%	27.7%	2.9	71.8%	20.4%
11	Ian Jackson	G	So	6'5"	36-19	18.3	9.4	2.3	1.3	1.4	49.6%	34.3%	4.0	90.0%	31.3%
17	Ruben Prey	F	So	6'11"	37-1	10.7	4.3	2.1	0.8	0.5	57.9%	62.5%	0.6	67.2%	21.5%
31	Lefteris Liotopoulos	G	So	6'4"	30-0	7.7	2.9	0.9	0.4	0.4	45.9%	32.1%	1.8	77.8%	23.8%
5	Kelvin Odih	G	Fr	6'4"	10-0	5.4	1.5	1.9	0.2	0.5	46.7%	0.0%	0.1	50.0%	20.6%
6	Casper Pohto	G	Fr	6'3"	5-0	5.4	0.4	0.8	0.2	0.4	20.0%	0.0%	0.4	—	13.2%
44	Handje Tamba	C	Sr	6'11"	8-0	2.4	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.1	50.0%	—	0.0	50.0%	16.3%
7	Fotis Konstantinidis	G	Fr	6'2"	6-0	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.0	150.0%	100.0%	0.2	—	6.7%
22	Imran Suljanovic	F	Fr	6'8"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

St John's

Against the spread

Season

22-15

Home

11-9

Road

7-3

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +2.8

Covered the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as a favorite

Over / under

Season

14-22-1

Home

7-13

Road

4-5-1

Last 10

2-7-1

avg vs total −5.2

Over in the last gameOver in 1 of 7 as a favorite, 1 push

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 27	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	L 75–80	+6.5	W+1.5	140.5	O155	117.0	124.8	64.1
Mar 22	#4KansasAdjEM #25	N	W 67–65	−3.5	L−1.5	145.5	U132	95.5	92.7	70.2
Mar 20	#12Northern IowaAdjEM #64	N	W 79–53	−10.5	W+15.5	133.5	U132	125.2	84.0	63.1
Mar 14	#6UConnAdjEM #10	H	W 72–52	+2.0	W+22.0	139.5	U124	114.5	82.7	62.9
Mar 13	Seton HallAdjEM #56	H	W 78–68	−8.0	W+2.0	136.5	O146	117.3	102.3	66.5
Mar 12	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	H	W 85–72	−12.0	W+1.0	159.5	U157	112.6	95.4	75.5
Mar 6	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	W 72–65	−5.0	W+2.0	137.0	P137	112.3	101.3	64.1
Mar 3	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	H	W 72–69	−15.5	L−12.5	148.0	U141	103.5	99.2	69.6
Feb 28	VillanovaAdjEM #40	H	W 89–57	−7.5	W+24.5	148.0	U146	122.8	78.6	72.5
Feb 25	#6UConnAdjEM #10	A	L 40–72	+5.5	L−26.5	146.0	U112	68.8	123.8	58.2

Oregon

Against the spread

Season

12-20

Home

7-10

Road

4-6

Last 10

6-4

avg cover +0.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 5 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

9-8

Road

2-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −3.9

Under in the last gameOver in 3 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	MarylandAdjEM #198	N	L 60–70	−4.0	L−14.0	139.0	U130	95.6	111.5	62.8
Mar 7	WashingtonAdjEM #59	H	W 85–79	+1.5	W+7.5	146.0	O164	129.7	120.5	65.5
Mar 3	#11IllinoisAdjEM #4	A	L 54–80	+17.5	L−8.5	147.0	U134	78.9	116.9	68.5
Feb 28	NorthwesternAdjEM #78	A	L 62–63	+3.5	W+2.5	142.5	U125	97.3	98.9	63.7
Feb 25	WisconsinAdjEM #28	H	W 85–71	+5.5	W+19.5	153.0	O156	122.8	102.5	69.2
Feb 21	USCAdjEM #97	A	W 71–70	+5.0	W+6.0	149.5	U141	101.3	99.8	70.1
Feb 17	MinnesotaAdjEM #94	H	L 44–61	−3.5	L−20.5	134.5	U105	73.5	101.9	59.9
Feb 14	Penn StateAdjEM #194	H	W 83–72	−6.5	W+4.5	147.0	O155	126.5	109.7	65.6
Feb 9	IndianaAdjEM #45	A	L 74–92	+11.0	L−7.0	143.5	O166	111.5	138.7	66.3
Feb 7	#12PurdueAdjEM #9	A	L 64–68	+18.5	W+14.5	145.0	U132	96.6	102.7	66.2

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

St John'sOregon

Efficiency

115.2

108.8

99.2

107.2

69.7

67.4

—

Shooting

51.1%

49.5%

51.5%

50.5%

33.5%

32.1%

72.2%

73.0%

40.2%

35.0%

Ball control & glass

14.4%

17.6%

19.1%

15.7%

35.2%

32.3%

29.9%

32.3%

8.6%

10.3%

10.0%

9.5%

Style

35.2%

42.8%

45.0%

39.5%

16.7%

10.1%

57.9%

59.0%

31.0%

29.6%

Roster

2.24

3.25

6'4.7"

6'6.6"

39.3%

81.4%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

St John's

Returning minutes: 39.3%Returning production: 32.0%

Lost

Zuby Ejiofor 30.1 mpg, 16.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Bryce Hopkins 28.8 mpg, 13.6 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Oziyah Sellers 28.6 mpg, 10.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Dillon Mitchell 28.1 mpg, 8.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Sadiku Ibine Ayo 6.2 mpg, 1.4 ppg · transferred to Iona

Added

Imran Suljanovic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 39% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5. Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Oregon

Returning minutes: 81.4%Returning production: 72.8%

Lost

Nate Bittle 24.3 mpg, 13.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jackson Shelstad 13.1 mpg, 5.8 ppg · transferred to Louisville

Added

Rian Gonzales no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 81% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.