Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks basketball preview & prediction
Tue, Nov 24 · 7:30 PM ET · Show Me Center, Cape Girardeau, MO
Non-conferenceESPN+Show Me Center, Cape Girardeau, MO
Purdue FW
1-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #237
@
SE Missouri
2-1 · 0-0 conf
Efficiency #180
Tue, Nov 24 · 7:30 PM ET
Our projected score shows once the market opens.
No line posted yet.
Our play
Pace & total
possessions per 40 minutesTempo, possessions per 40 minutes
Projected possessions: 73.2, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw season pace, SE Missouri is the faster team (74.3, #79 of 365) and Purdue FW the slower (71.1, #167). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (weights 0.80 vs 0.66).
Projected possessions
73.2
per team, 40 min
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
70.6#176
Purdue FW
73.1#54
SE Missouri
How this game plays
points this game from the four factors, vs an average D-I matchupFrom the four factors
SE Missouri has the ball+1.1
Purdue FW has the ball−3.7
SE Missouri has the ball
✓Shoots it welleFG% 52.8% #139 · PFW allows 57.3% #300+5.2
✗Few second chancesOR% 22.9% #312 · PFW allows 30.8% #171−2.9
✗Few trips to the lineFTR 25.6% #304 · PFW allows 36.4% #179 · FT 68.8% #202−0.6
✗Coughs it upTO% 16.2% #122 · PFW forces 21.1% #83 · ~14 turnovers−0.6
Purdue FW has the ball
✗Few second chancesOR% 25.6% #279 · SEMO allows 29.2% #146−2.3
✗Coughs it upTO% 19.7% #237 · SEMO forces 20.2% #102 · ~15 turnovers−1.9
✓Gets to the lineFTR 19.7% #343 · SEMO allows 60.7% #341 · FT 83.3% #21+1.4
✗Tough shooting lookeFG% 50.0% #176 · SEMO allows 49.1% #152−0.8
Shot diet
Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shootPurdue FWoffense vsSE Missouridefense
Share of shots by zone
Purdue FW shoots
42.6
6.6
8.2
42.6
SE Missouri allows
53.8
5.7
6.6
34.0
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 38.5%#346 | 50.9%#89 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 0.0%#323 | 33.3%#125 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 20.0%#279 | 14.3%#40 | 34.7% |
| Three | 50.0%#3 | 36.1%#261 | 32.5% |
SE Missourioffense vsPurdue FWdefense
Share of shots by zone
SE Missouri shoots
47.1
7.4
17.4
28.1
Purdue FW allows
56.4
7.3
7.3
29.1
D-I average
37.8
8.0
12.4
41.8
FG% by zone
| Zone | D-I avg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rim | 45.6%#313 | 67.7%#282 | 58.0% |
| Short 2 (≤9 ft) | 44.4%#131 | 50.0%#243 | 38.2% |
| Mid 2 (10 ft+) | 47.6%#71 | 25.0%#85 | 34.7% |
| Three | 47.1%#10 | 31.3%#153 | 32.5% |
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three
Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).
Shot volume
Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul linePurdue FW
−4.8extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#245 of 365
Off reb %
25.6%
#279
Def reb %
69.2%
#171
Turnover %
19.7%
#237
Forced TO %
21.1%
#83
FT rate
19.7%
#343
FT allowed
36.4%
#179
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.0
Defensive rebounding+0.3
Ball security−1.0
Forcing turnovers+2.2
Foul shots drawn−4.6
Foul shots allowed+0.4
SE Missouri
−8.1extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#289 of 365
Off reb %
22.9%
#312
Def reb %
70.8%
#146
Turnover %
16.2%
#122
Forced TO %
20.2%
#102
FT rate
25.6%
#304
FT allowed
60.7%
#341
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−2.9
Defensive rebounding+0.8
Ball security+1.5
Forcing turnovers+1.5
Foul shots drawn−3.1
Foul shots allowed−5.9
Purdue FW has more extra scoring chances per game: −4.8 (#245 of 365) to SE Missouri’s −8.1 (#289).
Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).
Rotation
Who has been playing, and who has notPurdue FW2026-27 numbers
| # | Player | Pos | Cl | Ht | GP-GS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | TOV | eFG% | 3P% | 3PA/g | FT% | Usage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | G | Jr | 6'3" | 2-2 | 25.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 39.5% | 27.3% | 5.5 | 50.0% | 23.0% | Active | |
| 9 | G | Sr | 6'0" | 2-2 | 23.5 | 11.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 58.8% | 28.6% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 24.0% | Active | |
| 1 | F | Sr | 6'6" | 2-2 | 21.0 | 14.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 76.5% | — | 0.0 | 75.0% | 28.2% | Active | |
| 20 | F | Jr | 6'9" | 2-2 | 20.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 75.0% | 100.0% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 10.8% | Active | |
| 4 | G | Sr | 6'2" | 2-0 | 19.5 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 56.3% | 42.9% | 3.5 | 100.0% | 23.1% | Active | |
| 5 | G | So | 6'0" | 2-2 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 35.7% | 33.3% | 3.0 | 100.0% | 25.0% | Active | |
| 2 | G | Jr | 6'5" | 2-0 | 15.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 91.7% | 75.0% | 2.0 | — | 10.4% | Active | |
| 7 | G | Jr | 6'6" | 2-0 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 68.8% | 50.0% | 4.0 | 66.7% | 35.7% | Active | |
| 24 | G | So | 6'5" | 2-0 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 90.9% | 75.0% | 4.0 | 50.0% | 31.1% | Active | |
| 3 | G | Fr | 6'5" | 1-0 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 30.0% | 50.0% | 2.0 | 100.0% | 19.8% | Missed last | |
| 11 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 3.0 | — | 32.1% | Active | |
| 31 | F | Fr | 6'9" | 2-0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | — | 0.0 | — | 12.5% | Active | |
| 34 | F | Fr | 6'11" | 1-0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0% | — | 0.0 | 0.0% | 22.3% | Active | |
| 13 | G | Fr | 6'1" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0 | — | 33.1% | Active | |
| 23 | G | Fr | 6'2" | 1-0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — | 0.0 | — | 0.0% | Active |
Competitive minutes leave out garbage time (provisional rule: a second-half lead of 25+ inside 15:00, 20+ inside 10:00, 15+ inside 5:00 or 10+ inside 2:00, held to the end) and are shown per 40 minutes. Status says only whether a player appeared; the reason is not published.
Trends
Results against the closing spread and total, last ten gamesPurdue FW
Against the spread
Season
1-0
Home
0-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
1-0
avg cover +2.5
Covered the last game
Over / under
Season
0-1
Home
0-0
Road
0-1
Last 10
0-1
avg vs total −3.5
Under in the last game
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | Albion Britons | H | W 103–65 | — | — | — | — | 130.3 | 82.2 | 79.0 |
| Nov 3 | Duquesne | A | L 71–78 | +9.5 | W+2.5 | 152.5 | U149 | 99.9 | 109.7 | 71.1 |
| Mar 3 | Green Bay | A | L 56–64 | +4.5 | L−3.5 | 145.0 | U120 | 96.7 | 110.6 | 57.9 |
| Feb 28 | IU Indy | A | W 87–81 | −1.0 | W+5.0 | 160.5 | O168 | 125.0 | 116.4 | 69.6 |
| Feb 25 | Wright St | H | L 70–74 | +1.0 | L−3.0 | 152.0 | U144 | 98.7 | 104.3 | 70.9 |
| Feb 22 | Cleveland St | A | W 92–86 | −3.0 | W+3.0 | 163.0 | O178 | 120.7 | 112.8 | 76.2 |
| Feb 18 | N Kentucky | A | L 71–87 | +6.0 | L−10.0 | 154.0 | O158 | 99.7 | 122.1 | 71.2 |
| Feb 15 | IU Indy | H | W 83–78 | −6.5 | L−1.5 | 158.5 | O161 | 110.7 | 104.1 | 75.0 |
| Feb 12 | Green Bay | A | L 59–76 | +1.5 | L−15.5 | 144.5 | U135 | 100.1 | 129.0 | 58.9 |
| Feb 7 | Wright St | A | L 68–73 | +7.0 | W+2.0 | 150.0 | U141 | 109.2 | 117.2 | 62.3 |
SE Missouri
Against the spread
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg cover +7.8
Covered 2 straight
Over / under
Season
2-0
Home
1-0
Road
1-0
Last 10
2-0
avg vs total +4.8
Over 2 straight
Last 10 games, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Site | Result | Total | PPP for | PPP vs | Pace | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | South Carolina | A | L 68–78 | +17.0 | W+7.0 | 145.0 | O146 | 95.5 | 109.5 | 71.2 |
| Nov 4 | Webster Gorloks | H | W 90–65 | — | — | — | — | 101.4 | 73.2 | 88.8 |
| Nov 2 | Lipscomb | H | W 86–79 | +1.5 | W+8.5 | 156.5 | O165 | 111.2 | 102.2 | 77.3 |
| Mar 6 | Morehead St | N | L 61–66 | −4.0 | L−9.0 | 139.5 | U127 | 94.4 | 102.1 | 64.6 |
| Mar 5 | Lindenwood | N | W 68–66 | −3.0 | L−1.0 | 149.0 | U134 | 100.1 | 97.2 | 67.9 |
| Feb 28 | Tennessee Tech | H | W 89–73 | −7.5 | W+8.5 | 142.0 | O162 | 130.8 | 107.3 | 68.1 |
| Feb 26 | Tennessee St | H | L 71–79 | −3.5 | L−11.5 | 152.0 | U150 | 96.4 | 107.3 | 73.6 |
| Feb 21 | Little Rock | A | W 70–65 | −2.5 | W+2.5 | 144.0 | U135 | 102.6 | 95.3 | 68.2 |
| Feb 17 | UT Martin | A | W 56–53 OT | +2.5 | W+5.5 | 138.5 | U109 | 78.4 | 74.2 | 71.5 |
| Feb 14 | Lindenwood | A | W 73–61 | +2.0 | W+14.0 | 156.5 | U134 | 100.8 | 84.2 | 72.4 |
Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.
Team comparison
national rank toned left for away, right for homePurdue FWSE Missouri
Efficiency
103.8
103.1
108.4
104.5
70.6
73.1
1.8
1.5
Shooting
50.0%
52.8%
31.4%
46.2%
50.0%
47.1%
83.3%
68.8%
19.7%
25.6%
Ball control & glass
19.7%
16.2%
21.1%
20.2%
25.6%
22.9%
30.8%
29.2%
11.3%
6.1%
11.4%
8.8%
Style
42.6%
27.2%
28.2%
40.3%
15.5%
15.6%
66.7%
41.4%
45.9%
42.3%
Roster
2.86
2.96
6'4.1"
6'4.5"
28.2%
25.1%
Offseason
roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model inputPurdue FW
Returning minutes: 28.2%Returning production: 25.4%
Lost
- Corey Hadnot II 33.2 mpg, 20.4 ppg · transferred to Houston
- Mikale Stevenson 29.8 mpg, 13.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Maximus Nelson 27.5 mpg, 7.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Darius Duffy 21.6 mpg, 5.0 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Deangelo Elisee 13.8 mpg, 3.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Yuval Levin 9.6 mpg, 3.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Anthony Isaac Jr. from Manhattan · 23.8 mpg, 9.5 ppg last season
- Ashton Williamson from FIU · 18.4 mpg, 6.3 ppg last season
- Jaiden Arnold no D1 minutes last season
- Tamaje Izuagbe no D1 minutes last season
- Adam Walker no D1 minutes last season
- Luke Balanis no D1 minutes last season
Returns 28% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
SE Missouri
Returning minutes: 25.1%Returning production: 26.5%
Lost
- BJ Ward 30.2 mpg, 10.9 ppg · transferred to ETSU
- Braxton Stacker 28.2 mpg, 11.8 ppg · transferred to UNC Greensboro
- Luke Almodovar 27.0 mpg, 14.1 ppg · transferred to Memphis
- Brendan Terry 25.1 mpg, 11.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- Troy Cole Jr. 13.5 mpg, 4.2 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
- David Idada 10.7 mpg, 1.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
- Kycen Pruett new to D1 · 22.0 mpg, 10.0 ppg last season
- Darrion Sutton from Missouri St · 13.7 mpg, 4.6 ppg last season
- Alonzo Clawson-Smith no D1 minutes last season
- Axton Perry no D1 minutes last season
- Clayton Jewell no D1 minutes last season
- Drew Cooper no D1 minutes last season
Returns 25% of last season's minutes; lost 4 of its top 5 (3 transferred). Teams returning under 40% of last season's minutes have historically fallen about 0.8 points of AdjEM (n=716 team-seasons, 2022-2026).
Head-to-head
this season and lastNo meetings the last two seasons.
More games on Tue, Nov 24
- Wright St vs St Bonaventure · 10:00 AM ET
- Ohio vs New Mexico St · 11:00 AM ET
- SE Louisiana vs N Colorado · 12:30 PM ET
- Belmont vs Akron · 12:30 PM ET
- Southern Utah at FIU · 1:00 PM ET
- Lindenwood vs New Haven · 1:00 PM ET
- Oklahoma vs Pitt · 1:30 PM ET
- Rice vs UIC · 1:30 PM ET
- Oregon St vs San Francisco · 2:00 PM ET
- Tennessee vs Maryland · 3:00 PM ET
- Miami vs TCU · 3:00 PM ET
- North Dakota vs Detroit Mercy · 3:00 PM ET
- App State vs Yale · 3:00 PM ET
- Long Beach St vs Arkansas St · 3:30 PM ET
- Air Force vs Army · 4:00 PM ET
- Tulsa vs Illinois St · 4:30 PM ET
- Creighton vs Michigan · 5:30 PM ET
- San Diego St vs Iowa State · 5:30 PM ET
- Wyoming vs Kent State · 5:30 PM ET
- DePaul vs Purdue · 6:00 PM ET
- E Michigan vs Kennesaw St · 6:00 PM ET
- Queens at Wofford · 6:00 PM ET
- Mercer at FAU · 6:00 PM ET
- S Indiana at VMI · 6:00 PM ET
- Sacred Heart at Rutgers · 6:00 PM ET
- Elon at Furman · 6:30 PM ET
- Robert Morris vs Lamar · 6:30 PM ET
- Milwaukee at Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Gardner-Webb at Bowling Green · 7:00 PM ET
- Binghamton at Lehigh · 7:00 PM ET
- Charleston So at James Madison · 7:00 PM ET
- Nevada vs Santa Clara · 7:00 PM ET
- Jacksonville at Indiana · 7:00 PM ET
- Vanderbilt at Ohio State · 7:00 PM ET
- Stetson at South Florida · 7:00 PM ET
- Samford at Georgia Tech · 7:00 PM ET
- Boston U at Harvard · 7:00 PM ET
- Vermont at Siena · 7:00 PM ET
- UMBC at Iowa · 7:00 PM ET
- Campbell at Coastal · 7:00 PM ET
- New Hampshire at Seton Hall · 7:00 PM ET
- Mount St Marys at Morgan St · 7:00 PM ET
- Delaware St at Chattanooga · 7:00 PM ET
- Rider at Loyola MD · 7:00 PM ET
- Coppin St at Villanova · 7:00 PM ET
- Bryant at Marist · 7:00 PM ET
- Tarleton St at Weber St · 7:00 PM ET
- Hampton at Old Dominion · 7:00 PM ET
- West Georgia at Tennessee Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- Hou Christian at UL Monroe · 7:30 PM ET
- High Point vs Duquesne · 7:30 PM ET
- Alcorn St at Louisiana Tech · 7:30 PM ET
- C Michigan at Notre Dame · 8:00 PM ET
- Texas Tech vs Louisville · 8:00 PM ET
- Lipscomb at Auburn · 8:00 PM ET
- Green Bay at Kansas City · 8:00 PM ET
- Drexel at Penn · 8:00 PM ET
- Bucknell at Cornell · 8:00 PM ET
- Alabama A&M at North Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- Oral Roberts at UT Arlington · 8:00 PM ET
- Florida A&M at South Alabama · 8:00 PM ET
- Charleston vs UTEP · 8:30 PM ET
- UNC Asheville at Florida St · 9:00 PM ET
- Evansville at Missouri · 9:00 PM ET
- Idaho St at Boise St · 9:00 PM ET
- UNC Greensboro at Santa Barbara · 9:00 PM ET
- Sam Houston at Washington St · 9:00 PM ET
- Grand Canyon vs Saint Louis · 9:30 PM ET
- Baylor vs Alabama · 10:00 PM ET
- Oregon vs St John's · 10:30 PM ET
- Stanford vs Colorado · 11:59 PM ET
- Gonzaga vs Kansas St · 12:30 AM ET
- Bellarmine vs GA Southern · TBD
The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — the market spread and total (the median across books when no market line is up). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, from our line: the same view our bets are made from.
What these numbers mean: line shopping.