CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceMoby Arena, Fort Collins, CO
Idaho
Efficiency #156
2025-26: 21-15 · 13-9 conf
@
Colorado St
Efficiency #88
2025-26: 21-13 · 12-10 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
69.9
win 30%
Projected
76.0
win 70%
No line posted yet.
Model: CSU −6.1 · total 145.8 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Colorado St 65.5, Idaho 68.4 → 65.6 possessions
−6.0
Colorado St offense vs Idaho defense
+3.0
Idaho offense vs Colorado St defense
+0.6
Projected total
145.8
Axis starts at 135 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Colorado St offense vs Idaho defense
+3.0
Idaho offense vs Colorado St defense
−0.6
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+3.8
Colorado St by 6.1
6.1
Idaho side ◂▸ Colorado St side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +6.2 against +6.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Colorado St.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 65.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Idaho is the faster team (69.1, #139 of 365) and Colorado St the slower (64.4, #345). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
65.6
per team, 40 min
Projected total
145.8
model
Projected team totals
69.9 / 76.0
Idaho / Colorado St
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
68.4#176
Idaho
65.5#358
Colorado St

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
AdvantageColorado St
Where Colorado St scores: shooting
Colorado St shoots an effective 57.5% (#12); Idaho allows 50.5% (#128). Expect about 54.5%, 3.2 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +4.6 points per 100 possessions.
ClashIdaho
Style match: ball movement
Idaho creates off the dribble (assists on 44.6% of its baskets); Colorado St breaks up passing offenses (assists on 46.6% allowed) (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 43.6% — both habits push the same way.
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Colorado St averages 64.4 possessions per 40, Idaho 69.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 66 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
ClashIdaho
Style match: 3-point volume
Idaho takes 47.0% of its shots from three; Colorado St lets opponents take 43.0% of their shots from three (D1 average 39.5%). Expect about 47.8% — both habits push the same way.
AdvantageIdaho
Where Idaho scores: ball control
Idaho turns it over on 15.0% of possessions (#64); Colorado St forces turnovers on 15.5% of opponent possessions (#253). Expect about 14.9%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.3 points per 100 possessions.
Watch for noise
3-point caution
A notable season 3-point number here (Colorado St) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Idaho at about 47.8% of its shots from three, Colorado St about 44.6%.
Idaho has the ball
OffenseColorado St allowsvs D1 avg
51.4% #177
52.9% #263
+1.3 pt/100
15.0% #64
15.5% #253
+2.3 pt/100
28.4% #250
29.3% #123
-1.2 pt/100
34.6% #193
34.2% #155
-0.1 pt/100
72.6% #181
—
+0.0 pt/100
Idaho net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +2.3 pts/100
Colorado St has the ball
OffenseIdaho allowsvs D1 avg
57.5% #12
50.5% #128
+4.6 pt/100
18.5% #296
15.1% #283
+0.1 pt/100
30.0% #198
24.2% #5
-2.0 pt/100
39.4% #69
38.5% #273
+0.5 pt/100
77.0% #33
—
+0.4 pt/100
Colorado St net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +3.6 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Idahooffense vsColorado Stdefense
Share of shots by zone
Idaho shoots
Colorado St allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim56.8%#24559.3%#20358.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)38.2%#21648.7%#34739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)38.0%#18540.6%#26338.0%
Three34.1%#16834.2%#19633.7%
Colorado Stoffense vsIdahodefense
Share of shots by zone
Colorado St shoots
Idaho allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim66.1%#1555.5%#7658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)32.0%#33143.7%#26339.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)42.5%#4538.8%#19538.0%
Three38.6%#935.2%#26433.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Idaho
+0.6extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#158 of 365
Off reb %
28.4%
#250
Def reb %
75.8%
#5
Turnover %
15.0%
#64
Forced TO %
15.1%
#283
FT rate
34.6%
#193
FT allowed
38.5%
#273
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.6
Defensive rebounding+2.1
Ball security+1.2
Forcing turnovers−1.1
Foul shots drawn−0.1
Foul shots allowed−0.8
Colorado St
−0.3extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#190 of 365
Off reb %
30.0%
#198
Def reb %
70.7%
#123
Turnover %
18.5%
#296
Forced TO %
15.5%
#253
FT rate
39.4%
#69
FT allowed
34.2%
#155
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding−0.1
Defensive rebounding+0.4
Ball security−1.2
Forcing turnovers−0.8
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed+0.3

Idaho has more extra scoring chances per game: +0.6 (#158 of 365) to Colorado St’s −0.3 (#190).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Idaho2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
12Jackson RasmussenFFr6'7"35-3531.013.64.71.31.953.4%32.1%3.168.3%26.3%
14Kolton MitchellGSo6'1"33-3230.413.73.33.81.650.3%36.3%6.179.7%26.5%
3Biko JohnsonGSr6'2"36-3527.712.33.82.41.845.5%30.8%5.572.5%29.3%
0Brody RowburyFSr6'11"36-3624.57.75.21.01.063.0%38.7%0.968.3%16.5%
7Jack PayneGJr6'6"34-2221.56.64.11.30.948.8%31.6%4.082.4%19.8%
5Isaiah BricknerGSr6'4"35-1320.511.93.90.91.255.6%41.1%3.276.0%31.9%
21Seth JobaFJr6'9"36-017.25.23.50.40.755.4%35.5%2.665.6%17.6%
1Trevon BlassingameGJr6'4"35-316.93.92.60.50.758.9%37.9%1.972.7%13.2%
24Miles KlapperGSo6'3"29-412.33.82.00.80.556.3%42.9%1.468.4%18.1%
4Aidan SevillaGSr6'0"20-06.72.01.00.80.448.5%28.6%0.788.9%19.5%
15Ewan SteeleFSo6'9"15-06.31.51.60.50.144.4%40.0%0.360.0%14.0%
10Kristian GonzalezGJr6'3"1-018.018.01.00.02.093.8%75.0%4.0100.0%35.7%
2Talon JenkinsGFr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
11Titus YearoutGJr6'2"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
22Tyler LinhardtFSr6'7"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
34Will JensonFFr6'9"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
IdahoColorado St
Efficiency
108.3
114.2
107.3
109.6
68.4
65.5
—
—
Shooting
51.4%
57.5%
51.6%
57.1%
34.1%
38.6%
72.6%
77.0%
34.6%
39.4%
Ball control & glass
15.0%
18.5%
15.1%
15.5%
28.4%
30.0%
24.2%
29.3%
9.0%
10.5%
9.0%
9.0%
Style
47.0%
49.1%
39.4%
35.6%
9.2%
11.1%
44.6%
62.9%
31.4%
30.9%
Roster
2.88
2.73
6'5.2"
6'5.6"
—
—

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Idaho
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Idaho's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Colorado St
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Colorado St's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.