CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceFiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

Detroit Mercy

Efficiency #224

2025-26: 17-15 · 14-9 conf

Marquette

Efficiency #100

2025-26: 12-20 · 7-14 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

71.4

win 23%

Projected

80.1

win 77%

No line posted yet.

Model: MARQ −8.7 · total 151.5 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Marquette 69.5, Detroit Mercy 69.2 → 70.4 possessions

+4.6

Marquette offense vs Detroit Mercy defense

+1.7

Detroit Mercy offense vs Marquette defense

−3.0

Projected total

151.5

Axis starts at 145 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Marquette offense vs Detroit Mercy defense

+1.7

Detroit Mercy offense vs Marquette defense

+3.0

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+4.1

Marquette by 8.7

8.7

Detroit Mercy side ◂▸ Marquette side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +8.8 against +8.7. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Marquette.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 70.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Marquette is the faster team (70.1, #91 of 365) and Detroit Mercy the slower (69.7, #103). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

70.4

per team, 40 min

Projected total

151.5

model

Projected team totals

71.4 / 80.1

Detroit Mercy / Marquette

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.2#106

Detroit Mercy

69.5#81

Marquette

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageDetroit Mercy

Where Detroit Mercy scores: the offensive glass

Detroit Mercy rebounds 33.3% of its own misses (#81); Marquette lets opponents grab 34.7% of their own misses (#331). Expect about 34.5%, 4.1 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions.

AdvantageMarquette

Where Marquette scores: ball control

Marquette turns it over on 16.0% of possessions (#144); Detroit Mercy forces turnovers on 14.4% of opponent possessions (#324). Expect about 14.8%, 1.9 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.4 points per 100 possessions.

ClashMarquette

Style match: ball movement

Marquette assists on 58.1% of its made baskets; Detroit Mercy allows assists on 58.3% of opponents' baskets (D1 average 52.4%). Expect about 59.9% — both habits push the same way.

DefenseMarquette

Marquette's ball-hawking

Marquette ranks #8 nationally in steal rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.6% of Detroit Mercy's possessions to end in a steal against this defense.

Detroit Mercy has the ball

OffenseMarquette allowsvs D1 avg

49.5% #267

50.6% #131

-2.0 pt/100

16.0% #143

19.3% #38

-1.5 pt/100

33.3% #81

34.7% #331

+2.5 pt/100

32.6% #247

32.0% #104

-0.4 pt/100

78.9% #4

—

+0.6 pt/100

Detroit Mercy net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -0.7 pts/100

Marquette has the ball

OffenseDetroit Mercy allowsvs D1 avg

50.5% #215

52.2% #223

-0.0 pt/100

16.0% #144

14.4% #324

+2.4 pt/100

29.7% #216

30.8% #193

-0.2 pt/100

32.8% #243

37.6% #254

+0.1 pt/100

67.5% #332

—

-0.4 pt/100

Marquette net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +1.8 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Detroit Mercyoffense vsMarquettedefense

Share of shots by zone

Detroit Mercy shoots

33.5

7.0

29.5

30.1

Marquette allows

39.3

4.7

16.5

39.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	55.2%#294	60.9%#264	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.7%#157	36.3%#95	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	40.4%#96	35.5%#88	38.0%
Three	35.1%#108	32.7%#104	33.7%

Marquetteoffense vsDetroit Mercydefense

Share of shots by zone

Marquette shoots

46.1

4.0

7.9

42.0

Detroit Mercy allows

41.5

5.1

11.5

41.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	57.0%#238	59.0%#191	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	40.6%#161	46.4%#325	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	34.3%#306	34.4%#59	38.0%
Three	31.7%#297	33.3%#140	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Detroit Mercy

−1.4extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#254 of 365

Off reb %

33.3%

#81

Def reb %

69.2%

#193

Turnover %

16.0%

#143

Forced TO %

14.4%

#324

FT rate

32.6%

#247

FT allowed

37.6%

#254

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+0.9

Defensive rebounding−0.1

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−1.6

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed−0.6

Marquette

+1.0extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#137 of 365

Off reb %

29.7%

#216

Def reb %

65.3%

#331

Turnover %

16.0%

#144

Forced TO %

19.3%

#38

FT rate

32.8%

#243

FT allowed

32.0%

#104

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−0.2

Defensive rebounding−1.3

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers+1.8

Foul shots drawn−0.6

Foul shots allowed+0.8

Marquette has more extra scoring chances per game: +1.0 (#137 of 365) to Detroit Mercy’s −1.4 (#254).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Detroit Mercy2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Detroit Mercy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Orlando Lovejoy	G	Sr	6'3"	31-31	31.0	15.8	3.6	3.7	2.0	45.1%	14.8%	0.9	89.2%	31.3%
33	TJ Nadeau	G	So	6'5"	31-31	26.5	13.8	3.2	1.0	0.9	60.9%	46.7%	4.8	86.3%	25.2%
1	Tyler Spratt	G	Fr	6'5"	32-28	24.8	9.9	3.6	1.5	0.9	52.2%	38.5%	4.5	78.1%	22.6%
23	Legend Geeter	F	Sr	6'8"	29-25	25.6	8.3	6.4	2.3	1.6	51.1%	29.4%	1.2	69.0%	20.5%
11	Lance Stone	G	Fr	5'8"	32-1	20.8	6.8	1.3	2.0	1.2	41.0%	33.0%	3.1	87.3%	22.9%
30	Ryan Kalambay	F	So	6'9"	31-18	20.6	4.2	5.5	0.5	0.6	57.5%	—	0.0	71.4%	11.5%
20	London Maiden	F	Jr	6'8"	31-9	15.5	6.3	3.0	0.4	1.1	54.5%	—	0.0	64.3%	24.5%
10	Nate Johnson	G	So	6'7"	26-4	10.3	2.8	1.9	0.4	0.5	34.2%	16.7%	0.9	58.1%	22.2%
13	Jared Lary	G	Sr	6'6"	26-0	9.7	2.3	1.8	0.7	0.8	35.7%	24.0%	1.0	73.3%	21.5%
4	Keshawn Fisher	G	Fr	6'7"	20-1	11.4	5.5	2.2	0.8	1.1	49.0%	27.5%	2.0	82.4%	31.0%
2	Je'kel Cotton	G	Fr	6'6"	27-0	7.4	2.3	2.5	0.1	0.2	44.4%	29.3%	1.5	50.0%	20.5%
7	Ayden Carter	G	Jr	6'5"	9-5	20.6	12.2	4.3	1.2	2.0	57.7%	22.2%	2.0	76.9%	32.5%
6	Xavier Istomin-Monroe	C	Fr	7'1"	19-7	8.3	1.8	1.7	0.1	0.6	55.2%	—	0.0	25.0%	16.5%
25	Zak Abdalla	G	Fr	6'2"	3-0	2.3	1.7	0.3	0.3	0.0	75.0%	100.0%	0.3	100.0%	21.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Marquette2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
0	Nigel James Jr.	G	Fr	6'0"	32-29	29.3	16.4	3.4	4.9	2.8	52.0%	34.7%	3.8	69.2%	35.0%
13	Royce Parham	F	So	6'8"	31-20	28.8	12.5	4.9	0.9	1.4	58.4%	33.3%	3.3	65.0%	23.4%
12	Ben Gold	F	Sr	6'11"	31-26	27.3	8.0	5.8	0.9	0.6	49.3%	26.4%	4.5	65.3%	17.8%
10	Adrien Stevens	G	Fr	6'4"	32-23	26.1	7.9	2.6	1.6	1.0	56.6%	37.5%	4.5	71.0%	17.4%
9	Damarius Owens	F	So	6'7"	30-1	15.7	4.8	2.6	0.7	0.7	47.4%	27.1%	2.0	71.7%	19.5%
18	Caedin Hamilton	F	So	6'9"	32-17	13.0	2.9	2.9	0.6	0.8	42.3%	0.0%	0.1	67.5%	16.9%
5	Tre Norman	G	Jr	6'4"	30-0	8.1	2.2	1.4	0.7	0.7	44.1%	11.1%	0.3	64.5%	20.5%
35	Michael Phillips II	F	Fr	6'6"	28-0	7.9	2.1	1.3	0.2	0.3	46.6%	37.0%	1.6	35.7%	19.1%
22	Sean Jones	G	Jr	5'10"	8-3	21.4	6.3	1.4	3.9	1.5	40.6%	32.1%	3.5	68.8%	21.5%
8	Joshua Clark	F	So	7'1"	22-0	5.7	1.4	2.0	0.0	0.0	46.7%	—	0.0	23.1%	16.6%
40	Casey O'Malley	G	Sr	6'3"	4-0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0%	—	0.0	—	14.6%
42	Braeden Brenn	F	Fr	6'8"	3-0	1.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0%	—	0.0	—	19.3%
41	Jonah Lucas	G	Sr	6'1"	3-0	1.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	—	—	0.0	—	19.3%
21	Ian Miletic	F	Fr	6'7"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
1	Nash Walker	G	Fr	6'6"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—
6	Sheek Pearson	F	Fr	6'11"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Detroit Mercy2025-26 numbers

ESPN hasn't posted Detroit Mercy's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
5	Orlando Lovejoy	G	Sr	6'3"	31-31	31.0	15.8	3.6	3.7	2.0	45.1%	14.8%	0.9	89.2%	31.3%
33	TJ Nadeau	G	So	6'5"	31-31	26.5	13.8	3.2	1.0	0.9	60.9%	46.7%	4.8	86.3%	25.2%
1	Tyler Spratt	G	Fr	6'5"	32-28	24.8	9.9	3.6	1.5	0.9	52.2%	38.5%	4.5	78.1%	22.6%
23	Legend Geeter	F	Sr	6'8"	29-25	25.6	8.3	6.4	2.3	1.6	51.1%	29.4%	1.2	69.0%	20.5%
11	Lance Stone	G	Fr	5'8"	32-1	20.8	6.8	1.3	2.0	1.2	41.0%	33.0%	3.1	87.3%	22.9%
30	Ryan Kalambay	F	So	6'9"	31-18	20.6	4.2	5.5	0.5	0.6	57.5%	—	0.0	71.4%	11.5%
20	London Maiden	F	Jr	6'8"	31-9	15.5	6.3	3.0	0.4	1.1	54.5%	—	0.0	64.3%	24.5%
10	Nate Johnson	G	So	6'7"	26-4	10.3	2.8	1.9	0.4	0.5	34.2%	16.7%	0.9	58.1%	22.2%
13	Jared Lary	G	Sr	6'6"	26-0	9.7	2.3	1.8	0.7	0.8	35.7%	24.0%	1.0	73.3%	21.5%
4	Keshawn Fisher	G	Fr	6'7"	20-1	11.4	5.5	2.2	0.8	1.1	49.0%	27.5%	2.0	82.4%	31.0%
2	Je'kel Cotton	G	Fr	6'6"	27-0	7.4	2.3	2.5	0.1	0.2	44.4%	29.3%	1.5	50.0%	20.5%
7	Ayden Carter	G	Jr	6'5"	9-5	20.6	12.2	4.3	1.2	2.0	57.7%	22.2%	2.0	76.9%	32.5%
6	Xavier Istomin-Monroe	C	Fr	7'1"	19-7	8.3	1.8	1.7	0.1	0.6	55.2%	—	0.0	25.0%	16.5%
25	Zak Abdalla	G	Fr	6'2"	3-0	2.3	1.7	0.3	0.3	0.0	75.0%	100.0%	0.3	100.0%	21.9%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Detroit Mercy

Against the spread

Season

21-9

Home

8-4

Road

11-5

Last 10

8-2

avg cover +6.7

Covered 4 straightCovered 6 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-16

Home

7-5

Road

7-9

Last 10

2-8

avg vs total −3.0

Under 3 straightOver in 2 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 10	Wright StAdjEM #119	N	L 63–66	+5.0	W+2.0	153.5	U129	92.4	96.8	68.2
Mar 9	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	N	W 70–64	+4.0	W+10.0	146.5	U134	111.1	101.5	63.0
Mar 4	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	H	W 84–63	−1.0	W+20.0	151.5	U147	124.9	93.7	67.2
Feb 28	OaklandAdjEM #172	A	W 95–89	+8.0	W+14.0	161.5	O184	131.7	123.4	72.1
Feb 25	Robert MorrisAdjEM #142	A	L 62–73	+8.0	L−3.0	150.5	U135	97.5	114.8	63.6
Feb 22	Green BayAdjEM #222	H	W 74–70	−1.0	W+3.0	147.5	U144	107.2	101.4	69.0
Feb 20	MilwaukeeAdjEM #262	H	W 91–86	+1.0	W+6.0	153.0	O177	129.7	122.5	70.2
Feb 15	Youngstown StAdjEM #204	H	W 76–70	+3.0	W+9.0	150.5	U146	106.3	97.9	71.5
Feb 12	Wright StAdjEM #119	A	W 77–74	+11.5	W+14.5	153.0	U151	116.4	111.9	66.2
Feb 7	Green BayAdjEM #222	A	L 63–76	+4.0	L−9.0	148.0	U139	94.7	114.3	66.5

Marquette

Against the spread

Season

11-19-2

Home

6-10-1

Road

5-7

Last 10

7-3

avg cover +5.5

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 6 of 7 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

14-18

Home

6-11

Road

6-6

Last 10

3-7

avg vs total −8.2

Over in the last gameOver in 2 of 7 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 11	XavierAdjEM #129	N	L 87–89	−4.0	L−6.0	157.0	O176	113.7	116.3	76.6
Mar 7	#4UConnAdjEM #10	H	W 68–62	+10.0	W+16.0	142.5	U130	101.1	92.2	67.2
Mar 4	ProvidenceAdjEM #81	A	W 78–56	+4.5	W+26.5	162.0	U134	109.9	78.9	71.0
Mar 1	DePaulAdjEM #113	H	L 51–62	−4.5	L−15.5	139.5	U113	80.6	98.0	63.2
Feb 24	GeorgetownAdjEM #95	A	W 76–60	+2.5	W+18.5	150.5	U136	116.6	92.0	65.2
Feb 18	#17St John'sAdjEM #16	H	L 70–76	+8.5	W+2.5	157.0	U146	102.2	110.9	68.5
Feb 14	XavierAdjEM #129	A	L 88–96	+2.0	L−6.0	157.5	O184	122.1	133.1	72.1
Feb 10	VillanovaAdjEM #40	A	L 74–77	+9.5	W+6.5	145.0	O151	105.5	109.8	70.1
Feb 7	ButlerAdjEM #87	H	W 70–55	−3.5	W+11.5	155.5	U125	104.6	82.2	66.9
Jan 31	Seton HallAdjEM #56	A	L 64–69	+5.5	W+0.5	143.0	U133	102.8	110.8	62.3

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

Detroit MercyMarquette

Efficiency

107.9

108.7

110.6

104.8

69.2

69.5

—

Shooting

49.5%

50.5%

48.1%

52.7%

35.1%

31.7%

78.9%

67.5%

32.6%

32.8%

Ball control & glass

16.0%

14.4%

19.3%

33.3%

29.7%

30.8%

34.7%

8.9%

9.7%

7.9%

10.0%

Style

30.7%

42.2%

41.3%

47.8%

14.9%

19.5%

48.5%

58.1%

35.6%

29.0%

Roster

2.40

2.02

6'5.2"

6'5.9"

—

79.8%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Detroit Mercy

Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%

ESPN hasn't posted Detroit Mercy's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Marquette

Returning minutes: 79.8%Returning production: 78.7%

Lost

Chase Ross 32.9 mpg, 14.3 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Zaide Lowery 8.0 mpg, 2.8 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Sheek Pearson no D1 minutes last season
Nash Walker no D1 minutes last season
Ian Miletic no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 80% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.