CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.

Non-conferenceJohn Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA

Northeastern

Efficiency #274

2025-26: 7-24 · 3-17 conf

Virginia

Efficiency #15

2025-26: 30-6 · 17-4 conf

Fri, Nov 6 · TBD

66.9

win 5%

Projected

86.1

win 95%

No line posted yet.

Model: UVA −19.2 · total 153.1 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3

Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one

Projected total

Average D-I game

148.2

PaceAdjusted tempo: Virginia 67.1, Northeastern 69.8 → 68.6 possessions

+0.7

Virginia offense vs Northeastern defense

+9.7

Northeastern offense vs Virginia defense

−5.5

Projected total

153.1

Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step

Projected margin

Even game

0.0

Virginia offense vs Northeastern defense

+9.7

Northeastern offense vs Virginia defense

+5.5

Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors

+3.9

Virginia by 19.2

19.2

Northeastern side ◂▸ Virginia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1: the margin steps add to +19.1 against +19.2. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Virginia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes

Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 68.6, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Northeastern is the faster team (69.6, #108 of 365) and Virginia the slower (66.4, #276). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions

68.6

per team, 40 min

Projected total

153.1

model

Projected team totals

66.9 / 86.1

Northeastern / Virginia

Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent

69.8#63

Northeastern

67.1#278

Virginia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet

AdvantageVirginia

Where Virginia scores: shooting

Virginia shoots an effective 54.6% (#49); Northeastern allows 56.4% (#351). Expect about 55.8%, 4.6 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +6.5 points per 100 possessions.

DefenseVirginia

Virginia's shot-blocking

Virginia ranks #2 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 14.9% of Northeastern's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.

GlassVirginia

Virginia owns the glass

Projected offensive rebound rate of 35.5% is worth roughly +3.1 points per 100 possessions for Virginia's offense.

AdvantageNortheastern

Where Northeastern struggles: shooting

Northeastern shoots an effective 52.4% (#130); Virginia allows 45.7% (#8). Expect about 49.1%, 2.2 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.1 points per 100 possessions.

Watch for noise

3-point caution

A notable season 3-point number here (Virginia, Virginia's defense) is close to a coin flip going forward — the study's model of next-game 3P% barely beats guessing the D1 average. Shot volume is what actually carries: expect Northeastern at about 37.1% of its shots from three, Virginia about 42.5%.

GlassNortheastern

Northeastern gets out-rebounded

Projected offensive rebound rate of 27.6% is worth roughly -1.7 points per 100 possessions against Northeastern's offense.

Northeastern has the ball

OffenseVirginia allowsvs D1 avg

52.4% #130

45.7% #8

-3.1 pt/100

16.4% #162

15.4% #255

+1.3 pt/100

27.3% #286

29.2% #120

-1.7 pt/100

29.4% #324

32.9% #129

-0.5 pt/100

69.0% #299

—

-0.3 pt/100

Northeastern net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -4.3 pts/100

Virginia has the ball

OffenseNortheastern allowsvs D1 avg

54.6% #49

56.4% #351

+6.5 pt/100

16.0% #140

16.8% #170

+0.5 pt/100

37.9% #9

30.2% #169

+3.1 pt/100

32.3% #253

41.9% #320

+0.3 pt/100

72.8% #177

—

+0.0 pt/100

Virginia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +10.5 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers

Northeasternoffense vsVirginiadefense

Share of shots by zone

Northeastern shoots

42.0

5.9

15.1

37.1

Virginia allows

34.2

7.9

21.0

36.8

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#103	50.9%#7	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	36.7%#249	38.6%#150	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.7%#157	35.7%#97	38.0%
Three	33.7%#187	31.6%#46	33.7%

Virginiaoffense vsNortheasterndefense

Share of shots by zone

Virginia shoots

36.0

6.7

10.5

46.7

Northeastern allows

43.5

6.2

14.9

35.5

D-I average

38.5

6.4

15.8

39.3

FG% by zone

Zone			D-I avg
Rim	60.6%#105	63.5%#335	58.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)	45.3%#59	45.5%#314	39.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)	38.6%#164	47.9%#364	38.0%
Three	36.2%#48	35.8%#297	33.7%

RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers

Northeastern

−3.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#321 of 365

Off reb %

27.3%

#286

Def reb %

69.8%

#169

Turnover %

16.4%

#162

Forced TO %

16.8%

#170

FT rate

29.4%

#324

FT allowed

41.9%

#320

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding−1.0

Defensive rebounding+0.1

Ball security+0.3

Forcing turnovers+0.1

Foul shots drawn−1.4

Foul shots allowed−1.7

Virginia

+2.5extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#79 of 365

Off reb %

37.9%

Def reb %

70.8%

#120

Turnover %

16.0%

#140

Forced TO %

15.4%

#255

FT rate

32.3%

#253

FT allowed

32.9%

#129

Where the chances come from (per game)

Offensive rebounding+2.4

Defensive rebounding+0.5

Ball security+0.5

Forcing turnovers−0.9

Foul shots drawn−0.7

Foul shots allowed+0.6

Virginia has more extra scoring chances per game: +2.5 (#79 of 365) to Northeastern’s −3.7 (#321).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Northeastern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Mike Loughnane	G	Jr	6'4"	31-23	30.9	10.2	2.9	3.8	1.6	52.7%	35.1%	3.6	78.8%	20.0%
8	William Kermoury	G	Jr	6'5"	27-24	26.9	13.1	3.2	2.3	1.4	57.9%	40.2%	6.8	71.7%	26.7%
7	Youri Fritz	F	Sr	6'9"	25-23	25.9	9.8	5.4	1.5	1.6	59.8%	33.3%	0.1	52.1%	22.1%
1	Xavier Abreu	G	Fr	6'3"	29-9	21.0	12.6	2.7	1.0	1.1	50.3%	28.3%	3.2	75.6%	34.8%
13	Luca Soroa Schaller	G	So	6'7"	29-12	20.7	5.6	3.4	2.2	1.9	40.0%	22.6%	1.8	73.7%	22.0%
2	Ryan Williams	G	So	6'4"	28-10	14.7	7.4	1.1	1.6	0.6	62.3%	42.5%	2.6	90.9%	24.2%
21	Petar Pinter	C	Fr	6'11"	26-14	14.3	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.7	55.1%	—	0.0	55.0%	14.7%
9	Ty Francis	F	Fr	6'7"	24-5	15.0	4.5	2.6	0.4	0.6	52.9%	21.1%	0.8	57.6%	18.5%
0	Xander Alarie	F	Fr	6'8"	11-11	27.7	10.3	7.4	1.5	2.2	45.3%	26.3%	1.7	85.7%	24.1%
12	Liam Koelsch	C	Fr	6'9"	26-1	8.6	1.8	2.3	0.2	0.1	65.7%	—	0.0	8.7%	12.4%
10	Miles Newton	G	Fr	6'3"	9-7	16.8	5.4	2.0	0.9	0.8	58.3%	35.3%	1.9	70.0%	18.0%
22	Haris Elezovic	F	Sr	6'8"	17-0	8.1	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.4	45.7%	25.0%	0.5	85.7%	18.0%
3	LA Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	3-3	33.0	17.0	1.7	3.3	2.0	51.2%	27.3%	3.7	90.9%	31.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Virginia2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
30	Dallin Hall	G	Sr	6'4"	36-36	28.4	5.9	3.6	4.4	1.3	50.9%	32.0%	2.9	81.3%	14.3%
28	Thijs De Ridder	F	Fr	6'9"	36-36	27.7	15.6	6.2	1.6	1.8	55.9%	35.7%	3.1	70.9%	32.5%
5	Sam Lewis	G	Jr	6'7"	36-35	25.6	10.6	3.6	1.4	1.3	55.9%	40.3%	4.3	75.0%	24.7%
2	Chance Mallory	G	Fr	5'10"	36-0	24.1	9.3	3.7	3.4	1.1	50.6%	34.5%	3.1	77.5%	23.3%
17	Johann Grunloh	C	Fr	7'0"	36-36	21.0	7.1	5.2	0.6	0.8	59.0%	35.0%	1.7	55.7%	19.5%
11	Devin Tillis	F	Sr	6'7"	31-1	15.9	4.1	2.7	1.5	0.8	50.5%	37.5%	2.1	78.3%	17.7%
12	Elijah Gertrude	G	So	6'4"	17-0	6.2	1.7	0.8	0.6	0.2	45.2%	14.3%	0.8	33.3%	20.6%
7	Martin Carrere	G	Fr	6'9"	16-0	4.0	0.8	0.5	0.3	0.4	42.3%	16.7%	0.4	50.0%	19.3%
35	Carter Lang	F	So	6'9"	12-0	2.2	0.4	0.5	0.3	0.0	35.7%	33.3%	0.3	0.0%	18.1%
13	Desmond Roberts	G	So	6'4"	12-0	1.5	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.1	—	9.9%
22	Owen Odom	G	Fr	6'1"	11-0	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.1	50.0%	0.0%	0.2	—	25.2%
21	Silas Barksdale	F	Fr	6'9"	0-0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	—	—	0.0	—	—

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Northeastern2025-26 numbers

#	Player	Pos	Cl	Ht	GP-GS	MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	TOV	eFG%	3P%	3PA/g	FT%	Usage
4	Mike Loughnane	G	Jr	6'4"	31-23	30.9	10.2	2.9	3.8	1.6	52.7%	35.1%	3.6	78.8%	20.0%
8	William Kermoury	G	Jr	6'5"	27-24	26.9	13.1	3.2	2.3	1.4	57.9%	40.2%	6.8	71.7%	26.7%
7	Youri Fritz	F	Sr	6'9"	25-23	25.9	9.8	5.4	1.5	1.6	59.8%	33.3%	0.1	52.1%	22.1%
1	Xavier Abreu	G	Fr	6'3"	29-9	21.0	12.6	2.7	1.0	1.1	50.3%	28.3%	3.2	75.6%	34.8%
13	Luca Soroa Schaller	G	So	6'7"	29-12	20.7	5.6	3.4	2.2	1.9	40.0%	22.6%	1.8	73.7%	22.0%
2	Ryan Williams	G	So	6'4"	28-10	14.7	7.4	1.1	1.6	0.6	62.3%	42.5%	2.6	90.9%	24.2%
21	Petar Pinter	C	Fr	6'11"	26-14	14.3	3.3	2.1	0.4	0.7	55.1%	—	0.0	55.0%	14.7%
9	Ty Francis	F	Fr	6'7"	24-5	15.0	4.5	2.6	0.4	0.6	52.9%	21.1%	0.8	57.6%	18.5%
0	Xander Alarie	F	Fr	6'8"	11-11	27.7	10.3	7.4	1.5	2.2	45.3%	26.3%	1.7	85.7%	24.1%
12	Liam Koelsch	C	Fr	6'9"	26-1	8.6	1.8	2.3	0.2	0.1	65.7%	—	0.0	8.7%	12.4%
10	Miles Newton	G	Fr	6'3"	9-7	16.8	5.4	2.0	0.9	0.8	58.3%	35.3%	1.9	70.0%	18.0%
22	Haris Elezovic	F	Sr	6'8"	17-0	8.1	2.2	1.5	0.5	0.4	45.7%	25.0%	0.5	85.7%	18.0%
3	LA Pratt	G	Sr	6'5"	3-3	33.0	17.0	1.7	3.3	2.0	51.2%	27.3%	3.7	90.9%	31.1%

Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Trends

Last 10 games of 2025-26

Northeastern

Against the spread

Season

11-19-1

Home

2-10

Road

7-8-1

Last 10

2-8

avg cover −4.8

Missed the spread in the last gameCovered 1 of 8 as an underdog

Over / under

Season

20-11

Home

9-3

Road

8-8

Last 10

4-6

avg vs total −1.4

Over 3 straightOver in 3 of 8 as an underdog

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 7	DrexelAdjEM #214	N	L 77–84	+5.0	L−2.0	140.5	O161	112.0	122.2	68.8
Mar 6	NC A&TAdjEM #271	N	W 88–72	−2.0	W+14.0	152.5	O160	122.9	100.5	71.6
Mar 3	MonmouthAdjEM #173	H	L 83–89	+4.0	L−2.0	149.5	O172	123.9	132.9	67.0
Feb 28	HamptonAdjEM #268	A	L 65–76	+4.5	L−6.5	146.5	U141	98.6	115.2	65.9
Feb 26	William & MaryAdjEM #127	A	L 77–84	+11.0	W+4.0	164.5	U161	96.4	105.1	79.9
Feb 21	HofstraAdjEM #69	H	L 68–82	+7.5	L−6.5	145.0	O150	106.1	128.0	64.1
Feb 19	DrexelAdjEM #214	H	L 61–70	−1.0	L−10.0	145.0	U131	91.0	104.4	67.0
Feb 12	William & MaryAdjEM #127	H	L 67–94	+5.5	L−21.5	167.5	U161	96.2	135.0	69.7
Feb 7	Stony BrookAdjEM #232	A	L 55–69	+4.0	L−10.0	153.5	U124	82.0	102.9	67.1
Feb 5	HofstraAdjEM #69	A	L 63–80	+9.0	L−8.0	153.5	U143	94.9	120.5	66.4

Virginia

Against the spread

Season

17-18-1

Home

9-8

Road

5-5

Last 10

3-6-1

avg cover −0.8

Missed the spread 2 straightCovered 2 of 7 as a favorite, 1 pushCovered 0 of 4 with a line of 10+

Over / under

Season

17-19

Home

6-11

Road

4-6

Last 10

7-3

avg vs total +3.5

Over 6 straightOver in 5 of 7 as a favoriteOver in 2 of 4 with a line of 10+

Last 10 games, newest first

Date	Opponent	Site	Result			Total		PPP for	PPP vs	Pace
Mar 22	#6TennesseeAdjEM #13	N	L 72–79	+1.0	L−6.0	136.5	O151	109.8	120.5	65.5
Mar 20	#14Wright StAdjEM #119	N	W 82–73	−18.0	L−9.0	146.5	O155	126.3	112.4	64.9
Mar 14	#1DukeAdjEM #2	N	L 70–74	+6.5	W+2.5	139.5	O144	110.1	116.4	63.5
Mar 13	MiamiAdjEM #30	N	W 84–62	−3.5	W+18.5	145.0	O146	134.6	99.3	62.4
Mar 12	NC StateAdjEM #34	N	W 81–74	−7.0	P0.0	152.0	O155	118.2	108.0	68.5
Mar 7	Virginia TechAdjEM #61	H	W 76–72	−12.0	L−8.0	146.5	O148	114.6	108.5	66.3
Mar 3	Wake ForestAdjEM #76	H	W 75–70	−14.0	L−9.0	149.5	U145	110.3	102.9	68.0
Feb 28	#1DukeAdjEM #2	A	L 51–77	+10.0	L−16.0	143.0	U128	83.7	126.4	60.9
Feb 24	NC StateAdjEM #34	H	W 90–61	−6.0	W+23.0	152.0	U151	128.0	86.7	70.3
Feb 21	MiamiAdjEM #30	H	W 86–83	−7.5	L−4.5	146.5	O169	132.7	128.1	64.8

Records vs the closing line describe the past; ten games is a small sample.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home

NortheasternVirginia

Efficiency

107.7

117.4

113.7

101.2

69.8

67.1

—

Shooting

52.4%

54.6%

53.6%

54.9%

33.7%

36.2%

69.0%

72.8%

29.4%

32.3%

Ball control & glass

16.4%

16.0%

16.8%

15.4%

27.3%

37.9%

30.2%

29.2%

9.3%

9.6%

9.5%

10.0%

Style

37.8%

46.7%

47.0%

40.8%

15.3%

14.1%

55.7%

58.3%

33.4%

38.2%

Roster

2.26

2.24

6'6.1"

6'6"

90.0%

72.1%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input

Northeastern

Returning minutes: 90.0%Returning production: 93.2%

Lost

JB Frankel 20.0 mpg, 5.7 ppg · transferred to Boston College

Added

Nobody of note.

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 90% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5 (1 transferred). Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Virginia

Returning minutes: 72.1%Returning production: 68.7%

Lost

Malik Thomas 22.7 mpg, 12.4 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Ugonna Onyenso 18.7 mpg, 6.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Jacari White 15.4 mpg, 8.1 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet

Added

Silas Barksdale no D1 minutes last season

No incoming D1 transfers are listed on ESPN's roster yet — until they are, returning shares read high.

Returns 72% of last season's minutes; lost 1 of its top 5. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026).

Head-to-head

this season and last

No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.