CBB Matchups

Every D1 game with tempo-free ratings, four factors and market lines, one place.

College basketball is being built for the 2026-27 season (tip-off Nov 3). What's here fills in as games are played.
Non-conferenceStegeman Coliseum, Athens, GA
Presbyterian
Efficiency #252
2025-26: 15-18 · 8-10 conf
@
Georgia
Efficiency #32
2025-26: 22-11 · 10-9 conf
Fri, Nov 6 · TBD
68.5
win 9%
Projected
84.2
win 91%
No line posted yet.
Model: UGA −15.7 · total 152.7 · ratings as of Sat, Oct 3
Preseason ratings start from 2025-26's final adjusted ratings, regressed toward the D1 average. The stats below are 2025-26's too; both update once 2026-27 games are played.

How the projection is built

each step, from an average D-I game to this one
Projected total
Average D-I game
148.2
PaceAdjusted tempo: Georgia 71.5, Presbyterian 66.2 → 69.4 possessions
+2.4
Georgia offense vs Presbyterian defense
+6.9
Presbyterian offense vs Georgia defense
−4.8
Projected total
152.7
Axis starts at 140 pointsPoints added or removed at each step
Projected margin
Even game
0.0
Georgia offense vs Presbyterian defense
+6.9
Presbyterian offense vs Georgia defense
+4.8
Home court+2.9 points per 100 possessions to the home offense, −2.9 to the visitors
+4.0
Georgia by 15.7
15.7
Presbyterian side ◂▸ Georgia side

Steps are rounded to one decimal, so they can differ from the total by 0.1. The margin is the same build seen from the home side; positive numbers help Georgia.

Pace & total

possessions per 40 minutes
Tempo, possessions per 40 minutes

Projected possessions: 69.4, from each team's opponent-adjusted tempo. On raw 2025-26 season pace, Georgia is the faster team (73.6, #8 of 365) and Presbyterian the slower (66.1, #292). When tempos clash, the slower team usually pulls the pace harder (study weights 0.80 vs 0.66).

Projected possessions
69.4
per team, 40 min
Projected total
152.7
model
Projected team totals
68.5 / 84.2
Presbyterian / Georgia
Adjusted tempo, vs an average opponent
66.2#332
Presbyterian
71.5#10
Georgia

How this game plays

what the study found each side's numbers actually do when these two teams meet
Pace
Tempo tug-of-war
Georgia averages 73.6 possessions per 40, Presbyterian 66.1. Slower teams pull the pace toward themselves more than fast teams push it (0.80 vs 0.66 in five seasons of games), so expect about 70 — more possessions mean more points in the total and more chances for the better team to separate.
DefenseGeorgia
Georgia's shot-blocking
Georgia ranks #10 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 12.7% of Presbyterian's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
AdvantagePresbyterian
Where Presbyterian struggles: ball control
Presbyterian turns it over on 19.3% of possessions (#332); Georgia forces turnovers on 18.4% of opponent possessions (#81). Expect about 19.2%, 2.5 points above an average D1 matchup — worth roughly -3.0 points per 100 possessions.
AdvantageGeorgia
Where Georgia scores: ball control
Georgia turns it over on 14.3% of possessions (#31); Presbyterian forces turnovers on 15.7% of opponent possessions (#233). Expect about 14.7%, 2.1 points below an average D1 matchup — worth roughly +2.6 points per 100 possessions.
GlassPresbyterian
Presbyterian owns the glass
Projected offensive rebound rate of 34.4% is worth roughly +2.5 points per 100 possessions for Presbyterian's offense.
DefensePresbyterian
Presbyterian's shot-blocking
Presbyterian ranks #36 nationally in block rate — one of the few defensive numbers that travels. Expect about 11.7% of Georgia's two-point attempts to get blocked against this defense.
Presbyterian has the ball
OffenseGeorgia allowsvs D1 avg
51.0% #196
50.6% #134
-0.8 pt/100
19.3% #332
18.4% #81
-3.0 pt/100
33.1% #86
34.9% #336
+2.5 pt/100
39.3% #71
30.2% #65
-0.1 pt/100
68.5% #312
—
-0.3 pt/100
Presbyterian net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: -1.8 pts/100
Georgia has the ball
OffensePresbyterian allowsvs D1 avg
54.2% #61
51.2% #170
+2.3 pt/100
14.3% #31
15.7% #233
+2.6 pt/100
34.9% #49
30.6% #188
+2.0 pt/100
36.9% #131
37.1% #241
+0.3 pt/100
75.0% #81
—
+0.2 pt/100
Georgia net across the four factors + FT%, vs. a D1-average matchup: +7.4 pts/100

Shot diet

Where each offense shoots from and where each defense lets teams shoot · 2025-26 numbers
Presbyterianoffense vsGeorgiadefense
Share of shots by zone
Presbyterian shoots
Georgia allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim58.6%#17556.7%#10658.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)47.6%#3043.8%#26539.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.8%#19238.7%#18638.0%
Three31.6%#30133.6%#16533.7%
Georgiaoffense vsPresbyteriandefense
Share of shots by zone
Georgia shoots
Presbyterian allows
D-I average
FG% by zone
ZoneD-I avg
Rim62.2%#6855.1%#6158.6%
Short 2 (≤9 ft)46.0%#5142.9%#24739.5%
Mid 2 (10 ft+)37.1%#21840.0%#24338.0%
Three33.8%#18534.7%#23533.7%
RimShort 2 (≤9 ft)Mid 2 (10 ft+)Three

Zones from play-by-play shot descriptions; garbage time removed. Bars show the share of field-goal attempts in each zone; where a slice is too thin for its number, the shares are listed under the bar. FG% ranks: #1 = best for that side (most accurate shooting, stingiest defense).

Shot volume

Extra scoring chances from rebounds, turnovers and the foul line · 2025-26 numbers
Presbyterian
−0.9extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#225 of 365
Off reb %
33.1%
#86
Def reb %
69.4%
#188
Turnover %
19.3%
#332
Forced TO %
15.7%
#233
FT rate
39.3%
#71
FT allowed
37.1%
#241
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+0.9
Defensive rebounding0.0
Ball security−1.7
Forcing turnovers−0.7
Foul shots drawn+1.1
Foul shots allowed−0.5
Georgia
+4.7extra scoring chances per game vs a D-I average team#28 of 365
Off reb %
34.9%
#49
Def reb %
65.1%
#336
Turnover %
14.3%
#31
Forced TO %
18.4%
#81
FT rate
36.9%
#131
FT allowed
30.2%
#65
Where the chances come from (per game)
Offensive rebounding+1.5
Defensive rebounding−1.4
Ball security+1.7
Forcing turnovers+1.1
Foul shots drawn+0.5
Foul shots allowed+1.3

Georgia has more extra scoring chances per game: +4.7 (#28 of 365) to Presbyterian’s −0.9 (#225).

Grade = extra shots and foul-line trips per game compared with a D-I average team, built from six season rates. Cell shading is the national rank for each rate (greener = better for that team).

Rotation

Presbyterian2025-26 numbers
ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's 2026-27 roster yet — these are last season's players.
#PlayerPosClHtGP-GSMPGPPGRPGAPGTOVeFG%3P%3PA/gFT%UsageStatus
12Carl ParrishGJr6'3"33-3333.514.42.82.41.651.3%40.2%5.784.5%26.3%
15Jonah PierceFSr6'10"33-3332.616.09.61.32.955.2%0.0%0.057.3%31.5%
7Triston WilsonGSo6'6"33-3330.711.43.33.82.446.4%23.7%2.882.4%25.3%
42Jaylen PetersonFJr6'8"33-3330.010.97.50.81.561.4%100.0%0.054.9%20.8%
4Josh PickettGSo6'5"33-2727.05.81.52.31.647.6%34.7%3.768.9%16.5%
0Iverson KingGSo6'6"21-219.34.52.80.71.041.5%22.2%2.168.0%19.3%
6Chidi ChiakweluFFr6'8"33-011.13.42.40.10.568.2%—0.043.8%17.0%
2Khalon HudsonGSo6'6"32-011.13.92.50.30.453.9%20.8%0.890.3%19.3%
3JD BowdenGFr6'1"26-08.82.20.41.10.737.0%28.0%1.087.0%20.5%
11Erik TaylorGSo6'1"6-420.86.21.73.31.251.9%29.4%2.876.9%19.0%
10Amare AndersonGFr6'1"20-05.01.40.40.30.350.0%14.3%0.366.7%17.9%
1Luke AllisonGSo6'0"7-02.90.40.30.10.137.5%25.0%0.6—14.3%
13Augustine AyelyineFFr6'10"0-00.00.00.00.00.0——0.0——
Rosters come from ESPN and are still filling in; incoming transfers and freshmen may be missing.

Tale of the tape

national rank toned left for away, right for home
PresbyterianGeorgia
Efficiency
105.0
117.4
109.5
105.0
66.2
71.5
—
—
Shooting
51.0%
54.2%
52.3%
57.0%
31.6%
33.8%
68.5%
75.0%
39.3%
36.9%
Ball control & glass
19.3%
14.3%
15.7%
18.4%
33.1%
34.9%
30.6%
34.9%
10.2%
9.4%
8.4%
9.8%
Style
28.0%
44.3%
52.6%
43.2%
11.5%
22.1%
49.1%
48.1%
23.3%
41.6%
Roster
2.53
3.56
6'6.1"
6'6.2"
—
44.2%

Offseason

roster movement into this season — descriptive, not a model input
Presbyterian
Returning minutes: 100.0%Returning production: 100.0%
ESPN hasn't posted Presbyterian's roster for this season yet — no movement to show.

Returns 100% of last season's minutes. Teams returning at least 65% of last season's minutes have historically gained about 2.2 points of AdjEM (n=156 team-seasons, 2022-2026). (ESPN hasn't posted this season's roster yet -- this may still be last season's list.)

Georgia
Returning minutes: 44.2%Returning production: 44.6%
Lost
  • Jeremiah Wilkinson 24.1 mpg, 16.4 ppg · transferred to Arkansas
  • Somto Cyril 21.1 mpg, 9.3 ppg · transferred to Miami
  • Jordan Ross 20.2 mpg, 6.5 ppg · transferred to California
  • Dylan James 15.0 mpg, 4.5 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Bailey 11.8 mpg, 3.9 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
  • Justin Abson 10.7 mpg, 2.7 ppg · not on a D1 roster yet
Added
  • Freddie Dilione V from Penn State · 27.5 mpg, 14.0 ppg last season
  • James Scott from Ole Miss · 17.9 mpg, 3.9 ppg last season
  • Brady Dunlap from Saint Louis · 16.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg last season
  • Andrew Osasuyi from St Bonaventure · 11.6 mpg, 3.6 ppg last season
  • Mading Kuany no D1 minutes last season
  • Donovan Williams Jr. no D1 minutes last season

Returns 44% of last season's minutes; lost 2 of its top 5 (2 transferred).

Head-to-head

this season and last
No meetings the last two seasons.

The CBB Matchups tab lays out the day's Division I slate: matchup, tip time, records and rank, and — once posted — Pinnacle's spread and total (the median across books when Pinnacle has no line). Three views switch the table between projected scores, pace and totals, and each team's offensive and defensive tendencies. Each game opens into opponent-adjusted possessions, efficiency and four-factor tendencies for both teams, plus recent form, rotation and head-to-head history. Every game also carries our projected score, spread and total, built bottom-up from those same numbers: expected possessions times each side's opponent-adjusted points per possession, plus home court.

What these numbers mean: line shopping.